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1,[object Object],Integrated Scenario Analysis for the California Water Plan Update 2009,[object Object],Rich Juricich, DWR,[object Object],Mohammad Rayej, DWR,[object Object],David Groves, RAND,[object Object],David Yates, NCAR,[object Object],David Purkey, SEI,[object Object],Brian Joyce, SEI,[object Object],Andy Draper, MWH,[object Object]
Presentation Overview,[object Object],Water Plan Highlights and climate change ,[object Object],Scenario concepts used in California Water Plan,[object Object],Application of scenarios to statewide Hydrologic Regions,[object Object],Summary of climate information in Water Plan Update 2009,[object Object],2,[object Object]
3,[object Object],Climate Change: Stressing Our Water System (1),[object Object]
4,[object Object],Average Annual Snowmelt Projections,[object Object]
5,[object Object],Projected Decrease in CA Snowmelt,[object Object]
6,[object Object],Historical & Projected Sea Level at GG,[object Object]
7,[object Object],American River RunoffAnnual Maximum 3-Day Flow,[object Object]
8,[object Object],Scenario Concepts,[object Object]
Water Plan Scenarios Used ToConsider Future Uncertainty,[object Object],Three plausible yet very different conditions during 2050 planning horizon,[object Object],Explore key uncertainties facing water community,[object Object],Factors water community has little control over,[object Object],Not predictions ---- used to evaluate water management responses,[object Object],9,[object Object]
Scenarios Organized Around Uncertainty,[object Object],Economic ,[object Object],and Financial,[object Object],Institutional ,[object Object],and Political,[object Object],Natural ,[object Object],Systems,[object Object],Technology,[object Object],Social,[object Object],Practices,[object Object],10,[object Object]
Evaluating Uncertainty Using Scenarios,[object Object],Indicators,[object Object],(e.g. Supply Reliability),[object Object],Scenario 1 ,[object Object],(with Management,[object Object],Response ),[object Object],Scenario 3 (baseline),[object Object],Scenario 2 (baseline),[object Object],Scenario 1 (baseline),[object Object],Water Portfolios,[object Object],Uncertainties:,[object Object],Future Climate ,[object Object],Population Growth,[object Object],Land Use Patterns,[object Object],Economic Cycles,[object Object],2050,[object Object],Today,[object Object],11,[object Object]
3 Baseline Scenarios for 2050Plausible Yet Different Futures,[object Object],[object Object]
More coordinated planning & infill
Lower population growth
Lower reduction in agricultural production
New environment water -- High
More background water conservation
Less coordinated planning, sprawl
Higher population growth
Higher reduction in agricultural production
New environment water -- Low
Less background water conservationCurrent Trends,[object Object],Strategic Growth,[object Object],Expansive Growth,[object Object],12,[object Object]
Technical Outreach for Scenarios,[object Object],December 2007 – Scenario proposal,[object Object],April 2008 – Shared Vision Planning,[object Object],June 2008 – Refinement of scenario proposal,[object Object],Climate change,[object Object],Environmental water,[object Object],Flood management,[object Object],Water quality,[object Object],February 2009 – Review of preliminary demands,[object Object],June 2009 – Review of revised results & graphics,[object Object],July 2009 – Climate TAG,[object Object],13,[object Object]
Quantifying Future Scenariosfor Update 2009,[object Object],Using WEAP analytical tool to quantify water demand and supplies for future scenarios and water management responses,[object Object],WEAP Hydrologic Region analysis being done for all regions --- high level, coarse representation,[object Object],WEAP Planning Area analysis for Sacramento and San Joaquin regions --- more physically based,[object Object],Each scenario evaluated with 12 climate sequences (climate change, multiple year droughts, wet years),[object Object],14,[object Object]
15,[object Object],Future Precipitation Projections,[object Object],Future Temperature Projections ,[object Object],Local time series of monthly weather,[object Object],[object Object]
Weather sequences drive hydrologic models to calculate:
irrigation demand (HR and PA)
hydrologic flows (PA analysis, only) Hydrologic Model,[object Object],Analysis Considers Possible Climate Change Impacts,[object Object],[object Object]

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