3. WHAT WILL THE COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY
LANDSCAPE LOOK LIKE IN 2021 A.D?
Communication technology has grown so much
over the past 10 years and it will continue to
grow. By 2021 A.D. there will be a lot more
things that will be changed. Perhaps everyone
will be online all the time, and will know what a
computer is and how to use it. There will be no
more boxed software, 3-D TV will become normal
for everyone. There will be no more filing
cabinets, because everything will be
computerized. Tablets may become more popular
than computers and laptops…
4. The communication landscape will become more portable and
everything will be connected to the internet. The development of
smart phones and tablets has allowed individuals to take their
computers wherever they go. They provide numerous degrees of
entertainment and social networking. If an individual wants to read a
book, they can use their portable device. If they want to watch a
YouTube video, they can use their portable device. If they want to
update their Twitter, they can use their portable device.
Wi-Fi and cellular internet have made accessing the entertainment
more available. There are few places in the United States where an
individual does not have access to the internet or cell phone service.
By 2021 A.D. most media technologies will begin to look the same.
They will all have the feel of the internet, no matter where we use
them. They will be more interactive and just about every piece of
technology will have a way to access the internet.
5. Schools will get rid of text books all together
and perhaps E-books will be the only means
of reading… these have become more and
more popular. Instead of carrying a book for
each class, students could carry a Nook or e-
reader and have a whole library at their
fingertips
6.
7. The Umbrella Perspective
“The use of an “umbrella” to illustrate these five factors is
the result of the manner in which they were drawn on a
chalkboard during a lecture in 1988. The arrangement of
the five attributes resembled an umbrella and the name
stuck” (Grant & Meadows)
In order to understand technology first you will need to
understand the competing and complementary
technologies and the larger social environment and
within these technology exists.
The umbrella perspective main focus is to describe the
adaption of new technologies into society. The umbrella
perspective will also help us understand communication
technology.
8. The following levels must be examined to understand a communication
technology:
•Hardware-which is the communication technology itself
•Software-is the messages or content of the communication technology
•Organizational Infrastructure-this is the involvement in the
production/distribution
•Social System-the political, economic and media systems
•Individual Users-consists of actual and potential
And then there are factors that need to be considered within the
umbrella perspective:
•Enabling-makes an application of communication technology possible
•Limiting-limits an application or creates a barrier
•Motivating-reasons or incentives for adopting (business and user needs)
•Inhibiting-disincentives for adopting (business and user needs)
These factors can be identified in all of the above levels except for the
hardware. Hardware can only be identified within the limiting and
enabling factors and by itself hardware does not provide motivation.
Motivation has to come from the software or any of the other levels.
9. Rogers Diffusion of Innovation
Developed in in mid 1900's by
Everett M.Rogers, the theory
describes diffusion as the
process by which an
innovation is communicated
through certain channels over
time among the members of a
social system.
10. Four Elements of Influence
Rogers, a professor of rural
1. The Innovation
sociology, published a book
titled Diffusion of Innovations
in 1962. 2. Communication
Channels
The book included four main
elements that influence the 3. Time
spread of a new idea.
4. Social System
11. Decision Innovation Process
Individuals progress through five
stages as members of a social
system.
1. Knowledge
2. Persuasion
3. Decision (Can either
Reject or Accept It)
4. Implementation
5. Confirmation
By this, if the information is
adopted, it spreads through
various communication
channels.
12. Moore's Innovation Adoption Rates
The rate of adoption is defined as the relative speed with which members
of a social system adopt an innovation. The rates are determined by an
individual's adopter category such as:
1st to adopt innovation, willing to take
Innovators risks, youngest in age, have great
financial lucidity.
Early Adopters 2nd fastest to adopt, high degree of
opinion leadership, high social status,
advance education
Early Majority
Adopt after varying degree of time.
Late Majority Adopt after avg. member of society,
Very skeptical, Below average social
status.
Laggards Last to adopt. No opinion leadership,
lowest financial and social status.
13. Rogers Five Factors
Intrinsic Characteristics of Innovation that Influence an Individual's Decision to Adopt
or Reject an Innovation
FACTOR DEFINITON
1. Relative advantage • How improved an innovation is
over the previous generation
• The level of compatibility that
2. Compatibility an innovation has to be
assimilated
3. Complexity or Simplicity • If its too difficult an indiv. will
not likely adopt it
4. Trialability • How easily an innov. may be
experimented with as it is being
adopted.
5. Observability • Extent that an innov. is visible
to others.
14. Social Systems
During communication, the idea is
rarely evaluated from a scientific
standpoint; rather, subjective
perceptions of the innovation
influence diffusion.
Finally, Social Systems determine
four things:
1. Norms of Diffusion
2. Roles of Opinion Leaders and
Change Agents
3. Types of Innovation Decisions
4. Innovation consequences
15. Critical Mass Theory
• The Critical Mass theory is the stage of the diffusion process that
an interactive medium has to reach in order for the adoption to
take off. Once it has reached the “tipping point” the product
explodes. People get to know about it and hear the word of
mouth and everyone wants to try it or get one.
• In the future, critical mass theory will become easier to adapt to,
and once something new comes out people won’t have to wait -
they will just go get it. In the future, the critical mass won’t take
as long to reach the diffusion process, and more likely it will
explode a lot faster than before.
• A good example of critical mass would be the IPAD. Now days it
feels like everyone has one. It is kind of pointless and there really
is no point in it or having one if you already have an IPhone
and/or a computer. However once it reached the diffusion
process everyone got one, but later on most people rarely even
used it.
• In the future, critical mass theory will become more dominate and
make new products more widespread, because of the way
technology is growing.
16. Uses and Gratifications Theory
• This theory focuses on what users want out of their technology. It
states that they will seek technologies that satisfy their needs. This
theory deals with why people choose certain media technologies over
others. The textbook Communication Technology Update and
Fundamentals says that “people watch television for information,
relaxation, to pass time, by habit, excitement, and for social utility
(Rubin, 2002.)” This theory can also be used to compare different
media technology based on why people use them.
• How does Uses and Gratifications Theory support this vision?
• Uses and Gratifications Theory states that people use certain
technologies over others to fulfill their needs. Portable devices are
able to fulfill nearly every need a person has in a communication
technology. This is mostly due to the internet and the variety of
content available online. Thus nearly every technology will have a
way to connect to the internet in order to satisfy the ever growing
desire of consumers to stay constantly connected to others.
17. Media System Dependency Theory
• The Media System Dependency
Theory is a theory that tries to
explain the role of media in a
society. Television is a media that is
dependent on. We use television to
obtain information from around,
watch television shows, and movies.
In 2021, television technology will
be so realistic that you won’t know
its television. We will continue to
depend on television to keep us
informed on new technologies.
Commercials will continue to
advertise new technology as it
becomes available. Another
dependency would be cell phones.
People depend on cell phones to
obtain information whether it is
phone call, text, internet or news.
19. Social Learning Theory/Social
Cognitive Theory
• People learn by watching others.
• Behavior is imitated.
• Reinforcement and punishment plays role.
• Self-regulation is an important factor – learners
believe they can perform the behavior.
• Useful framework for examining effects and
communication media.
• Functional and dysfunctional behavior.
• Adoption of new technologies.
21. The Theory of the Long Tail
• The Theory of the Long Tail is a theory that explains how our culture and
society shifts from mass markets to narrow interests.
• People are now able to enjoy themselves based off their interests versus the
interest of programming which is conducted by the thought of what they think
the people like instead of what the people actually want.
• Infinite Shelf space effect is a new distribution mechanism for P2P networks,
digital downloading, and streaming which have taken the place of retail and
broadcast media.
• The long tail seems as if niches are fragments of mass media, which in turn
will be co-categorized long tails of the masses.
• We have access to more media now that there are niches but we are paying
less for the privilege versus having “hits” where consumptions were not all
that accessible or easy to find or free.
22. • Long Tail is the driving force for expansion in media and multimedia so
businesses have to catch up. = Yellow Curve = non-hits, or niches (new growth
present & future)
• Vertical axis is sales and the horizontal axis is products.
The red part is the hits (market domination).
Millions of niches from virtual stock is the Long Tail = infinite choices.
Technology has made the long tail theory effective because consumers are able
to easily find niche products.
The standard demand curve can apply to all industries.
23. The Principle of Relative Constancy
The Principle of Relative Constancy theory is explained as a theory
that explains what happens to technologies as newer ones
become available. A good example is a VCR. All movies were on
VHS tapes and played in VCR’s. Over time, VHS’s turned into DVD’s
and DVD’s into Blue Ray. Now we continue on to Netflix. I can’t
imagine what else could become of videos. VHS’s have faded out,
DVD’s not so much. I do believe the technologies such as E-books
will fade textbooks out. There will not be a such thing as regular
cell phones. All cell phones will be smart phones with Internet,
text messaging, mobile television and satellite radio equipped.
Eventually cell phones will combine all of our accessories
together. We will no longer need portable DVD players, I-pods, or
laptops.
24. Communication
Technologies
The main three communication technologies are cell
phones, Facebook, and computers. Cell phones are big
part of communication people have their email on their
phones, you can text message or talk any time. Also on all
the smart phones you can surf the web or play games, etc
it is basically a computer in your pocket, however there
used to be no cell phones, but today we all act like we
could not live without them.
Facebook has become a really big social networking
website that a lot of people communicate with through
inviting people places, or finding old friends, or just to chat
and see how someone is doing. Overall Facebook is neat,
but it is very over rated and some people spend way too
much time on it.
Computers are also a big part of our everyday lives, people
use them for work/email or for school or to communicate
with people that are far away.
25.
26. The Growing Technology
• Cars are yet to change in the
future. There could be auto-
adjust mirrors, seats and
steering wheels based on who
enters the car, memorize
your seat and make your car
the way you want to. Imagine
a car with skin that fits your
desire, that moves… a car that
has motion! It switches
automatically, a car that
adapts to a specific user’s
habits and behaviors. A car
with it’s own attitude,
thinking flexible, backing
flexible…
30. COMM 303-50
Bill Brantley
Final Project
• Svetlana Dimitrova
• Carissa Boice
• Ricky Price
• Kristy Wilkerson
• Ashley Williams
• Holly Thomas
• Asia Mesnae Taylor
