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POWER AND THE PEOPLE
                                                         A POLITICO POLL SERIES, SPONSORED BY QUALCOMM
                                                                         DECEMBER 15, 2010



METHODOLOGY

On December 3-8, Penn Schoen Berland surveyed 1,000 people in the U.S. with a representative distribution of Americans and 225 Washington D.C. Elites. Margin of error is 3.1%
and 6.53% respectively.




                                                                                                                                                                             1
POLITICO Baseline

In general, do you believe that
things in the country are headed                      Gen               Gen      Gen                      DC               DC     DC
in the right direction or are they Gen Pop Gen Pop    Pop     Gen Pop   Pop      Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites       GP   GP
off on the wrong track?            December November October September August    July December November October September August July        Dem   Rep GP Ind
Right direction                       26       28      26        27      32       27     32       38      41        47      45    49          42    15  19
Wrong track                           60       59      61        61      58       61     58       51      54        49      49    45          37    80  64
Don't know                            15       13      13        11      11       12     10       11       5         4       6     6          21     5  17

In general, do you believe that the
economy nationwide is headed in                        Gen               Gen   Gen                      DC               DC     DC
the right direction or is it off on Gen Pop Gen Pop    Pop     Gen Pop Pop     Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites      GP      GP
the wrong track?                    December November October September August July December November October September August July       Dem      Rep   GP Ind
Right direction                        26       29      27        24      32    24     38       47      40        43      46    44         41       13    22
Wrong track                            59       58      59        64      57    65     51       43      49        48      44    46         39       79    60
Don't know                             16       14      14        12      12    11     11       10      11         9      10    10         20        8    18

How much do you feel the                       Gen               Gen           Gen                      DC               DC     DC
current economic downturn   Gen Pop Gen Pop    Pop     Gen Pop   Pop           Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites   GP
has affected you?           December November October September August         July December November October September August July     Dem GP Rep GP Ind
More than most Americans       23       22      25        23      24            27      4        4       4         5      8      6       25   22    20
Less than most Americans       24       28      27        27      26            24     73       75      73        74      64    74       23   28    21
About the same as others       49       46      46        47      48            47     22       20      23        20      28    20       46   48    53
Don’t know                      4        3       3         3      2              3      0        1       0         0      0      0       6    2      6

Do you think the political                    Gen               Gen       Gen                         DC               DC         DC
system in Washington       Gen Pop Gen Pop    Pop     Gen Pop   Pop       Pop    DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites    Elites
D.C. is broken?            December November October September August     July   December November October September August      July GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind
Yes, it is broken             69       70      74        72      72        72       75        67      68       62      73         64    61     77    71
No, it is not broken        15        14       14       15       17       15         20       28      30       34       23       31     19         14     12
Don’t know                  15        16       12       13       11       13         5        5        2        4       4        5      20         9      17

                                                Gen               Gen     Gen                          DC               DC       DC
Which is closest to your     Gen Pop Gen Pop    Pop     Gen Pop   Pop     Pop     DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites   Elites
views?                       December November October September August   July    December November October September August    July GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind
The Tea Party Movement is
a fad - it will go away soon    28       29      26        28      28      26        70       70       67       70      60       68     10         41     17
enough
I don’t know what the Tea
Party Movement is well          30       25      33        30      34      31         7        9       9        6       12       11     39         21     25
enough to say
The Tea Party Movement
will become a viable third      22       25      20        20      24      24        14       13       13       11      11       11     31         23     35
party in American politics
Don’t Know                      20       21      20        22      17      19         9        8       10       12      13       10     20         16     24

                                                                                                                                                               2
Overall, how      Gen Pop          Gen Pop         Gen Pop         Gen Pop         Gen Pop          Gen Pop        DC Elites         DC Elites       DC Elites       DC Elites       DC Elites       DC Elites
favorable are     December        November         October        September        August             July         December          November        October          Sept.           August           July
you towards
                        Fav /                                                                                               Fav /           Fav /           Fav /           Fav /           Fav /           Fav /
the following     Very Unfav / Very Fav / Unfav Very Fav / Unfav Very   Fav /    Very Fav / Unfav Very Fav / Unfav Very    Unfav /         Unfav /         Unfav /         Unfav /         Unfav /         Unfav /
people?            fav   DK     fav    / DK      fav    / DK      fav Unfav / DK fav     / DK      fav    / DK      fav      DK      VF      DK      VF      DK      VF      DK      VF      DK      VF      DK
Barack Obama      22    47/48/5   24    45/47/8   24    46/47/6   26    48/48/4   28    51/46/4   25    48/47/5    29      66/33/2   32    64/36/0   35    61/37/1   35    64/35/1   32    66/33/0   36    66/34/0
Hillary Clinton   22    55/38/7   22    53/40/8   21    52/39/9   20    51/42/6   21    53/41/7   20    49/45/6    29      74/25/0   33    68/31/0   34    68/30/3   33    72/28/1   32    68/32/0   34    74/25/1
George W. Bush    16    38/54/8   14    38/54/8   14    39/52/9   15    44/50/6   14    37/57/6   14    38/54/7    8       26/74/0    8    26/72/2   12    30/67/2    8    24/72/4   6     31/68/0   7     24/74/1
Sarah Palin       14   36/53/10   14   36/53/12   14   36/53/11   15    41/50/9   14    35/57/8   14    39/53/8    5       14/84/1    2    14/85/2    4    22/75/3    3    15/82/2   4     18/80/1   3     16/82/2
John McCain       11   41/47/12   11   43/46/10   12   44/46/11   13   47/44/10   11   41/50/10   13   43/48/10    5       34/65/0    7    40/59/1   11    39/58/3    8    41/57/1   6     42/57/1   6     39/60/1
Joe Biden         10   35/45/21   12   38/46/17   10   37/46/16   11   39/46/15   10   39/45/16   10   37/49/13    19      62/36/2   19    61/37/1   18    56/42/2   20    58/39/2   20    57/39/4   21    58/40/2
Mike Huckabee     10   32/30/37   11   33/33/34   11   35/29/36   14   37/28/36   11   33/31/36   11   36/29/34    5      27/64/10    3    29/66/5    6   30/56/14    5   32/59/10   6    33/54/13   3    26/63/13
Mitt Romney        8   29/33/38   5    26/36/37    8   31/35/35   12   34/32/34    7   29/33/37    9   30/35/34    8      29/61/10    5    34/60/6   11   35/56/10    6    34/57/8   5    33/56/11   4     32/60/8
Nancy Pelosi       7   24/50/25   6    24/52/24    7   24/52/24    7   26/48/26    7   25/50/25    5   23/52/25    10      40/58/2   13    42/56/1   12    40/56/3   12    42/53/5   12    44/52/4   12    45/52/3
Harry Reid         5   16/34/49   4    17/37/46    3   13/35/51    4   14/32/54    3   14/35/52    3   15/34/51    6      35/53/12    4   40/48/12    3   33/56/11    6   39/47/13   6    34/47/20   5    38/53/10
John Boehner       5   18/23/59   6    18/25/56    5   17/22/61    5   16/20/64    4   12/21/67    4   16/21/63    9      23/57/20    4   26/60/13    4   22/58/21    5   20/58/22   4    20/49/31   1    17/55/28
Haley Barbour      4   10/20/71   4    12/18/70    4   12/17/71    4   13/17/71    2   10/18/73    3   11/19/70    3      17/46/36    6   24/45/32    8   23/40/37    4   23/42/36   4    18/37/46   3    20/35/45
Mitch McConnell    3   13/24/63   3    13/26/60    3   14/26/60    5   16/21/63    3   12/25/63    2   13/23/64    5      18/60/21    2   20/58/22    4   23/50/27    2   19/58/23   4    21/50/28   2    21/53/27
Tim Pawlenty       3   11/18/71   3    14/20/67    4   12/17/71    5   16/15/70    3   11/17/72    3   12/18/69    5      23/31/46    2   24/33/42    4   21/36/43    4   21/39/39   6    26/26/48   2    17/34/50
U.S. Congress      3   19/67/14   2    21/63/16    4   23/65/13    5   25/61/14    4    24/66/9    5   25/64/11    1       19/78/2    0    25/74/1    0    22/75/2    1    28/70/2   2     31/68/0   3     29/69/1
Michael Steele     2   11/25/64   2    11/26/62    3   13/25/63    3   14/23/64    2   11/25/64    1   11/29/59    1      12/76/12    2   20/69/11    2   19/66/15    2   12/73/15   1    16/64/20   0    11/74/15
Tim Kaine          2   10/16/74   1     8/21/71    3   11/16/73    3   11/17/73    2   10/15/75    2   10/16/73    14     45/36/18   11   51/25/24    9   40/34/26   12   52/27/21   8    41/27/32   12   52/30/18




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 3
If Barack Obama runs for re-
election in 2012, in general,
are you more likely to vote for
President Obama or for the                                           Gen     Gen                      DC               DC     DC
Republican Party’s candidate Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop         Pop     Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites   GP      GP
for president?                  December November October September August   July December November October September August July     Dem     Rep    GP Ind
The Republican Candidate           38       40      40        43      40      42     27       29      36        30      32    28       6       84     28
Barack Obama                       37       37      39        35      38      37     57       58      52        55      50    56       73       6     29
Other                               4        4       3        3       4       4       2        3       4         2      3      2       2        1     10
Don’t know                         21       20      18        19      19      18     14        9       9        13      15    14       19       9     33

If the 2012 Presidential election                    Gen               Gen   Gen                      DC               DC     DC
were held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop    Pop     Gen Pop Pop     Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP        GP      GP
more likely to vote for?          December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem         Rep     Ind
Barack Obama                         48       46      50        45      50    48     74       73      67        71      70    73    82         13      47
Sarah Palin                          33       33      35        37      33    36     16       13      21        16      17    17     8         71      23
Don’t know                           18       20      15        18      17    16     10       14      12        13      13    10    10         16      30

If the 2012 Presidential election                    Gen               Gen   Gen                      DC               DC     DC
were held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop    Pop     Gen Pop Pop     Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP        GP       GP
more likely to vote for?          December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem         Rep      Ind
Barack Obama                         40       40      41        38      42    39     60       62      57        59      57    63    76          8       33
Mitt Romney                          33       32      34        38      33    35     29       33      36        30      32    26     6         71       26
Don’t know                           27       28      25        24      24    26     11        5       7        12      12    11    18         21       41

If the 2012 Presidential election                    Gen               Gen   Gen                      DC               DC     DC
were held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop    Pop     Gen Pop Pop     Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites     GP     GP      GP
more likely to vote for?          December November October September August July December November October September August July       Dem    Rep     Ind
Barack Obama                         39       39      41        40      42    39     60       65      55        59      52    60         73     7       35
Tim Pawlenty                         22       21      21        26      23    21     23       20      26        21      22    19         5      50      14
Don’t know                           38       40      38        34      35    40     17       15      19        19      26    22         22     43      51

If the 2012 Presidential election                    Gen               Gen   Gen                                          DC     DC
were held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop    Pop     Gen Pop Pop     Pop DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP      GP      GP
more likely to vote for?          December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem          Rep     Ind
Barack Obama                         40       40      41        40      43    39     60       66        68        64      60     65    76       6       35
Mike Huckabee                        34       34      35        38      35    35     29       24        22        25      27     23     7       74      25
Don’t know                           26       26      23        22      22    25     11       10        10        11      14     12    17       21      40

If the 2012 Presidential election                    Gen               Gen   Gen                      DC               DC     DC
were held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop    Pop     Gen Pop Pop     Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites    GP      GP      GP
more likely to vote for?          December November October September August July December November October September August July      Dem     Rep     Ind
Barack Obama                         40       40      40        38      43    39     58       66      56        57      56    60        74      7       35
Haley Barbour                        19       20      19        24      21    21     20       20      24        23      21    19        4       44      12
Don’t know                           41       40      41        38      36    40     22       14      20        20      23    22        23      49      53


                                                                                                                                                             4
CURRENT EVENTS


Which of
these best
                Gen Pop          Gen Pop           Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites                               DC Elites         DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites
describes
               December November                   October September August December                               November          October September August                        GP Dem         GP Rep           GP Ind
how closely
you have
been
following
each of these
events /              Closely         Closely /           Closely         Closely         Closely        Closely         Closely /         Closely         Closely         Closely        Closely        Closely /        Closely /
               Very    / Not   Very     Not        Very / Not Very / Not Very / Not Very                   / Not   Very     Not    Very / Not Very / Not Very / Not Very                   / Not   Very     Not    Very     Not
issues?       closely closely closely closely     closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely
State of the U.S.
economy
                    36 78/17     41     82/15       44    80/17     48    82/16 N/A        N/A      59   97/2      57     96/0       70    98/3      67    97/3      N/A    N/A      38   79/17     40   86/12       30   70/23
Terrorist threats
to the United       25 66/30     28     70/26      N/A     N/A      N/A    N/A      N/A    N/A      36 81/19       46     88/11      N/A    N/A      N/A    N/A      N/A    N/A      26   65/31     31   75/21       19   57/37
States
Expiration of
Bush tax cuts
                    23 58/35     24     55/40       24    53/40     23    55/41     18    47/47     48 84/16       43     84/16      37    78/21     40    79/20     31    68/31     21   60/35     31   66/31       17   48/41
The new U.S.
Congress
                    18 52/42     25     60/35      N/A     N/A      N/A    N/A      N/A    N/A      37 86/14       46     95/5       N/A    N/A      N/A    N/A      N/A    N/A      20   56/39     24   59/37       11   43/48
The push to
repeal the
military’s ‘don’t   18 50/44 N/A         N/A       N/A     N/A      N/A    N/A      N/A    N/A      37 80/20 N/A           N/A       N/A    N/A      N/A    N/A      N/A    N/A      22   55/39     19   52/45       12   41/48
ask, don’t tell’
policy
WikiLeaks’
release of U.S.
diplomatic
                    14 45/48 N/A         N/A       N/A     N/A      N/A    N/A      N/A    N/A      34 78/22 N/A           N/A       N/A    N/A      N/A    N/A      N/A    N/A      13   47/45     20   48/47       9    39/48
secrets
The beginnings
of the 2012
presidential        13 40/54     18     49/47       14    41/54 N/A        N/A      N/A    N/A      19 53/47       25     65/34      17    57/43 N/A        N/A      N/A    N/A      16   41/54     17   49/47       5    29/61
campaign
season




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 5
TOPIC INVESTIGATION – STATE OF THE UNION

Will you watch the president’s State of
the Union address in January?             Gen Pop   DC Elites   GP Dem   GP Rep   GP Ind   GP Male   GP Female
Yes                                         44         75         63       36      32        49          39
No                                          32         11         15       42      40        34          30
Don’t know                                  24         14         23       22      29        17          31


What should be the focus of President
Obama’s State of the Union address?       Gen Pop   DC Elites   GP Dem   GP Rep   GP Ind   GP Male   GP Female
Improving the economy and creating jobs     68         65         74       61      69        67          70
Reducing the deficit                        13         19         11       19      11        14          13
Bipartisanship in Washington                 4         10          2        5       4         5           2
The war on terrorism                         3         2           3        5       2         4           2
Don’t know                                  11         4          10       10      14        10          13


Do you think President Obama will be
able to use his State of the Union
address to reclaim his ownership of the
national agenda?                          Gen Pop   DC Elites   GP Dem   GP Rep   GP Ind   GP Male   GP Female
Yes                                         27         35         47       10      21        28          25
No                                          42         38         21       68      40        48          37
Don’t know                                  31         27         32       22      39        24          38


Do you expect the president’s State of
the Union address to have a positive
impact, a negative impact or no impact
on your perception of President Obama?    Gen Pop   DC Elites   GP Dem   GP Rep   GP Ind   GP Male   GP Female
Positive impact                             30         36         56       11      22        32          29
Negative impact                             17         12          5       33      15        18          17
No impact                                   35         38         24       43      38        36          34
Don’t know                                  17         14         15       12      25        14          20




                                                                                                                 6
TOPIC INVESTIGATION – THE NEW CONGRESS

Which issue should the new         Gen Pop       Gen Pop     DC Elites       DC Elites
Congress tackle first?            December      November     December        November       GP Dem        GP Rep        GP Ind       GP Male       GP Female
Work to reduce the deficit           35            36           50              46            39            29           35            34              35
Repeal health care reform            26            29           11              13            11            47           22            25              27
Pass another stimulus bill           18            14           20              17            26            12           17            22              15
Pass energy policy legislation        6             4           13              16             8             3            7             8              4
Don’t know                           15            16            6               7            16             9           19            11              18


Now that Republicans have gained the
majority in the House of Representatives,
how effective will they be in               Gen Pop     Gen Pop        DC Elites    DC Elites
implementing their agenda?                  December   November        December     November     GP Dem      GP Rep       GP Ind        GP Male    GP Female
Very effective                                 11         11               3            2           9          16           7             10           11
Somewhat effective                             35         35              36           28          25          52          28             37           33
Not very effective                             22         22              40           47          27          16          23             27           18
Not effective at all                           11         12              15           21          18          3           11             13           10
Don’t know                                     21         20               4            2          20          13          30             13           29


Are you confident that Republicans in
Congress will be effective leaders?         Gen Pop        DC Elites          GP Dem            GP Rep         GP Ind            GP Male          GP Female
Yes                                           28              17                12                57            17                 30                 26
No                                            46              73                71                19            45                 50                 41
Don’t know                                    26              10                17                24            38                 20                 33


Which of these best describe what you
hope to see from congressional
Republicans in the next session of
Congress?                                   Gen Pop        DC Elites          GP Dem            GP Rep         GP Ind            GP Male          GP Female
Work together with President Obama and
                                               51             74                   68             32               50              51                51
congressional Democrats
Work to block President Obama’s agenda         20             11                   10             32               18              21                18
Work to implement the Republican agenda        12             13                   6              26               6               15                10
Don’t know                                     17             2                    16             10               26              13                21




                                                                                                                                                               7
Which of these best describe what you
hope to see from President Obama in
2011?                                      Gen Pop   DC Elites   GP Dem   GP Rep   GP Ind   GP Male   GP Female
Compromise with congressional
                                             49         59         34       71       45       54         45
Republicans
Focus on pushing the White House agenda      16         31         29       6        12       17         15
Block the congressional Republican
                                             11         5          17       4        10       12          9
agenda
Don’t know                                   24         4          20       19       34       17         31


With a divided government, do you think
there will be progress over the next two
years in solving the nation’s problems
or will nothing get accomplished?          Gen Pop   DC Elites   GP Dem   GP Rep   GP Ind   GP Male   GP Female
Nothing will be accomplished                 44         55         39       41      51        46          42
There will be progress                       30         30         33       35      23        34          27
Don’t know                                   26         15         28       24      27        21          31


Do you support or oppose the repeal of
'don’t ask, don’t tell' - the military’s
current policy which bars openly gay or
lesbian troops from serving?               Gen Pop   DC Elites   GP Dem   GP Rep   GP Ind   GP Male   GP Female
Support the repeal                           43         75         59       31      38        44          42
Oppose the repeal                            30         14         18       44      28        34          26
Don’t know                                   27         11         23       26      34        22          32


How would you rate President Obama’s
handling of the efforts to repeal ‘don’t
ask, don’t tell’?                          Gen Pop   DC Elites   GP Dem   GP Rep   GP Ind   GP Male   GP Female
He is handling it poorly                     34         42         23       52      28        39          29
He is handling it well                       26         35         39       16      22        28          24
Don’t know                                   40         24         38       32      50        33          47


How would you rate Congressional
Republicans’ handling of the efforts to
repeal ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’?            Gen Pop   DC Elites   GP Dem   GP Rep   GP Ind   GP Male   GP Female
They are handling it poorly                  39         69         49       28      38        43          35
They are handling it well                    17         12         10       30      11        21          12
Don’t know                                   45         19         41       42      51        36          52




                                                                                                                  8
TOPIC INVESTIGATION – CURRENT EVENTS

Do you think President Obama should
follow his deficit-reduction
commission’s recommendation to raise
the retirement age for Social Security
from 67 to 68?                             Gen Pop       DC Elites      GP Dem       GP Rep           GP Ind            GP Male       GP Female
Yes                                          28             70            29           28              28                 33              24
No                                           51             20            49           56              50                 49              54
Don’t know                                   20             9             22           16              22                 19              22


Should Julian Assange, the founder of
WikiLeaks, be prosecuted as a terrorist
for publishing more than 250, 000 U.S.
diplomatic cables?                         Gen Pop       DC Elites     GP Dem        GP Rep           GP Ind            GP Male       GP Female
Yes                                          48             49            51              59            34                49             47
No                                           22             36            20              17            29                29             15
Don’t know                                   30             15            29              24            37                21             38


TOPIC INVESTIGATION – 2012 POTUS ELECTION

Do you think President Obama       Gen Pop     Gen Pop     DC Elites   DC Elites
will be re-elected in 2012?       December    November     December    November    GP Dem      GP Rep          GP Ind       GP Male    GP Female
Yes                                  28          26           38          49         50          8              23            30           25
No                                    48          50             27       23         24          76             47             49         47
Don’t know                            24          25             35       28         26          16             30             21         28


Do you think President Obama will face a
Democratic primary challenger in 2012?     Gen Pop       DC Elites      GP Dem       GP Rep           GP Ind            GP Male       GP Female
Yes                                          51             33            50              58            46                55             48
No                                           24             52            30              24            19                29             20
Don’t know                                   24             16            20              18            35                16             32




                                                                                                                                                   9
Who is most likely to win the Republican
presidential nomination in 2012?              Gen Pop       DC Elites      GP Dem       GP Rep        GP Ind            GP Male       GP Female
Sarah Palin                                     18             11            15           26           11                 17              18
Mitt Romney                                     13             30            11           17           11                 16              10
Mike Huckabee                                    9             6              9           12            7                  9              9
Newt Gingrich                                    3             5              2            4            2                  4              2
Ron Paul                                         2             1              3            2            2                  2              2
Tim Pawlenty                                     1             3              2            2            1                  2              1
Haley Barbour                                    1             5              0            1            1                  1              1
Mitch Daniels                                    1             3              1            0            2                  2              0
John Thune                                       1             1              1            1            1                  2              0
Don’t know                                      51             34            56           34           63                 45              57


How satisfied are you with the lineup of
possible Republican presidential
candidates thus far?                          Gen Pop       DC Elites      GP Dem       GP Rep        GP Ind            GP Male       GP Female
Very satisfied                                  10             5              8           17            5                 14              6
Somewhat satisfied                              22             19            10           43           15                 23              21
Somewhat dissatisfied                           17             23            14           14           23                 18              16
Very dissatisfied                               17             38            28            5           17                 19              15
Don't know                                      34             15            39           21           40                 25              41


Do you think Sarah Palin is qualified to be
president?                                    Gen Pop       DC Elites      GP Dem       GP Rep        GP Ind            GP Male       GP Female
Yes                                             23             11             8           47           17                 26              21
No                                              64             86            85           39           68                 65              64
Don’t know                                      12             4              7           15           15                  9              15


Do you think Sarah Palin is a
breath of fresh air or a negative   Gen Pop       Gen Pop     DC Elites   DC Elites
influence in national politics?     December     November     December    November    GP Dem     GP Rep        GP Ind       GP Male    GP Female
Negative influence                     50           50           79          77         75         20           53            50           50
Breath of fresh air                    34           28           15          14         15         64           25            36           33
Don’t know                             16           22            6           9         10         16           22            15           17




                                                                                                                                                  10

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Ppm187 politicoreport

  • 1. POWER AND THE PEOPLE A POLITICO POLL SERIES, SPONSORED BY QUALCOMM DECEMBER 15, 2010 METHODOLOGY On December 3-8, Penn Schoen Berland surveyed 1,000 people in the U.S. with a representative distribution of Americans and 225 Washington D.C. Elites. Margin of error is 3.1% and 6.53% respectively. 1
  • 2. POLITICO Baseline In general, do you believe that things in the country are headed Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC in the right direction or are they Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP off on the wrong track? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep GP Ind Right direction 26 28 26 27 32 27 32 38 41 47 45 49 42 15 19 Wrong track 60 59 61 61 58 61 58 51 54 49 49 45 37 80 64 Don't know 15 13 13 11 11 12 10 11 5 4 6 6 21 5 17 In general, do you believe that the economy nationwide is headed in Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC the right direction or is it off on Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP the wrong track? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep GP Ind Right direction 26 29 27 24 32 24 38 47 40 43 46 44 41 13 22 Wrong track 59 58 59 64 57 65 51 43 49 48 44 46 39 79 60 Don't know 16 14 14 12 12 11 11 10 11 9 10 10 20 8 18 How much do you feel the Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC current economic downturn Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP has affected you? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem GP Rep GP Ind More than most Americans 23 22 25 23 24 27 4 4 4 5 8 6 25 22 20 Less than most Americans 24 28 27 27 26 24 73 75 73 74 64 74 23 28 21 About the same as others 49 46 46 47 48 47 22 20 23 20 28 20 46 48 53 Don’t know 4 3 3 3 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 6 2 6 Do you think the political Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC system in Washington Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites D.C. is broken? December November October September August July December November October September August July GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind Yes, it is broken 69 70 74 72 72 72 75 67 68 62 73 64 61 77 71 No, it is not broken 15 14 14 15 17 15 20 28 30 34 23 31 19 14 12 Don’t know 15 16 12 13 11 13 5 5 2 4 4 5 20 9 17 Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC Which is closest to your Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites views? December November October September August July December November October September August July GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind The Tea Party Movement is a fad - it will go away soon 28 29 26 28 28 26 70 70 67 70 60 68 10 41 17 enough I don’t know what the Tea Party Movement is well 30 25 33 30 34 31 7 9 9 6 12 11 39 21 25 enough to say The Tea Party Movement will become a viable third 22 25 20 20 24 24 14 13 13 11 11 11 31 23 35 party in American politics Don’t Know 20 21 20 22 17 19 9 8 10 12 13 10 20 16 24 2
  • 3. Overall, how Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites favorable are December November October September August July December November October Sept. August July you towards Fav / Fav / Fav / Fav / Fav / Fav / Fav / the following Very Unfav / Very Fav / Unfav Very Fav / Unfav Very Fav / Very Fav / Unfav Very Fav / Unfav Very Unfav / Unfav / Unfav / Unfav / Unfav / Unfav / people? fav DK fav / DK fav / DK fav Unfav / DK fav / DK fav / DK fav DK VF DK VF DK VF DK VF DK VF DK Barack Obama 22 47/48/5 24 45/47/8 24 46/47/6 26 48/48/4 28 51/46/4 25 48/47/5 29 66/33/2 32 64/36/0 35 61/37/1 35 64/35/1 32 66/33/0 36 66/34/0 Hillary Clinton 22 55/38/7 22 53/40/8 21 52/39/9 20 51/42/6 21 53/41/7 20 49/45/6 29 74/25/0 33 68/31/0 34 68/30/3 33 72/28/1 32 68/32/0 34 74/25/1 George W. Bush 16 38/54/8 14 38/54/8 14 39/52/9 15 44/50/6 14 37/57/6 14 38/54/7 8 26/74/0 8 26/72/2 12 30/67/2 8 24/72/4 6 31/68/0 7 24/74/1 Sarah Palin 14 36/53/10 14 36/53/12 14 36/53/11 15 41/50/9 14 35/57/8 14 39/53/8 5 14/84/1 2 14/85/2 4 22/75/3 3 15/82/2 4 18/80/1 3 16/82/2 John McCain 11 41/47/12 11 43/46/10 12 44/46/11 13 47/44/10 11 41/50/10 13 43/48/10 5 34/65/0 7 40/59/1 11 39/58/3 8 41/57/1 6 42/57/1 6 39/60/1 Joe Biden 10 35/45/21 12 38/46/17 10 37/46/16 11 39/46/15 10 39/45/16 10 37/49/13 19 62/36/2 19 61/37/1 18 56/42/2 20 58/39/2 20 57/39/4 21 58/40/2 Mike Huckabee 10 32/30/37 11 33/33/34 11 35/29/36 14 37/28/36 11 33/31/36 11 36/29/34 5 27/64/10 3 29/66/5 6 30/56/14 5 32/59/10 6 33/54/13 3 26/63/13 Mitt Romney 8 29/33/38 5 26/36/37 8 31/35/35 12 34/32/34 7 29/33/37 9 30/35/34 8 29/61/10 5 34/60/6 11 35/56/10 6 34/57/8 5 33/56/11 4 32/60/8 Nancy Pelosi 7 24/50/25 6 24/52/24 7 24/52/24 7 26/48/26 7 25/50/25 5 23/52/25 10 40/58/2 13 42/56/1 12 40/56/3 12 42/53/5 12 44/52/4 12 45/52/3 Harry Reid 5 16/34/49 4 17/37/46 3 13/35/51 4 14/32/54 3 14/35/52 3 15/34/51 6 35/53/12 4 40/48/12 3 33/56/11 6 39/47/13 6 34/47/20 5 38/53/10 John Boehner 5 18/23/59 6 18/25/56 5 17/22/61 5 16/20/64 4 12/21/67 4 16/21/63 9 23/57/20 4 26/60/13 4 22/58/21 5 20/58/22 4 20/49/31 1 17/55/28 Haley Barbour 4 10/20/71 4 12/18/70 4 12/17/71 4 13/17/71 2 10/18/73 3 11/19/70 3 17/46/36 6 24/45/32 8 23/40/37 4 23/42/36 4 18/37/46 3 20/35/45 Mitch McConnell 3 13/24/63 3 13/26/60 3 14/26/60 5 16/21/63 3 12/25/63 2 13/23/64 5 18/60/21 2 20/58/22 4 23/50/27 2 19/58/23 4 21/50/28 2 21/53/27 Tim Pawlenty 3 11/18/71 3 14/20/67 4 12/17/71 5 16/15/70 3 11/17/72 3 12/18/69 5 23/31/46 2 24/33/42 4 21/36/43 4 21/39/39 6 26/26/48 2 17/34/50 U.S. Congress 3 19/67/14 2 21/63/16 4 23/65/13 5 25/61/14 4 24/66/9 5 25/64/11 1 19/78/2 0 25/74/1 0 22/75/2 1 28/70/2 2 31/68/0 3 29/69/1 Michael Steele 2 11/25/64 2 11/26/62 3 13/25/63 3 14/23/64 2 11/25/64 1 11/29/59 1 12/76/12 2 20/69/11 2 19/66/15 2 12/73/15 1 16/64/20 0 11/74/15 Tim Kaine 2 10/16/74 1 8/21/71 3 11/16/73 3 11/17/73 2 10/15/75 2 10/16/73 14 45/36/18 11 51/25/24 9 40/34/26 12 52/27/21 8 41/27/32 12 52/30/18 3
  • 4. If Barack Obama runs for re- election in 2012, in general, are you more likely to vote for President Obama or for the Gen Gen DC DC DC Republican Party’s candidate Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP for president? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep GP Ind The Republican Candidate 38 40 40 43 40 42 27 29 36 30 32 28 6 84 28 Barack Obama 37 37 39 35 38 37 57 58 52 55 50 56 73 6 29 Other 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 3 4 2 3 2 2 1 10 Don’t know 21 20 18 19 19 18 14 9 9 13 15 14 19 9 33 If the 2012 Presidential election Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC were held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP GP more likely to vote for? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep Ind Barack Obama 48 46 50 45 50 48 74 73 67 71 70 73 82 13 47 Sarah Palin 33 33 35 37 33 36 16 13 21 16 17 17 8 71 23 Don’t know 18 20 15 18 17 16 10 14 12 13 13 10 10 16 30 If the 2012 Presidential election Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC were held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP GP more likely to vote for? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep Ind Barack Obama 40 40 41 38 42 39 60 62 57 59 57 63 76 8 33 Mitt Romney 33 32 34 38 33 35 29 33 36 30 32 26 6 71 26 Don’t know 27 28 25 24 24 26 11 5 7 12 12 11 18 21 41 If the 2012 Presidential election Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC were held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP GP more likely to vote for? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep Ind Barack Obama 39 39 41 40 42 39 60 65 55 59 52 60 73 7 35 Tim Pawlenty 22 21 21 26 23 21 23 20 26 21 22 19 5 50 14 Don’t know 38 40 38 34 35 40 17 15 19 19 26 22 22 43 51 If the 2012 Presidential election Gen Gen Gen DC DC were held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP GP more likely to vote for? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep Ind Barack Obama 40 40 41 40 43 39 60 66 68 64 60 65 76 6 35 Mike Huckabee 34 34 35 38 35 35 29 24 22 25 27 23 7 74 25 Don’t know 26 26 23 22 22 25 11 10 10 11 14 12 17 21 40 If the 2012 Presidential election Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC were held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP GP more likely to vote for? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep Ind Barack Obama 40 40 40 38 43 39 58 66 56 57 56 60 74 7 35 Haley Barbour 19 20 19 24 21 21 20 20 24 23 21 19 4 44 12 Don’t know 41 40 41 38 36 40 22 14 20 20 23 22 23 49 53 4
  • 5. CURRENT EVENTS Which of these best Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites describes December November October September August December November October September August GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind how closely you have been following each of these events / Closely Closely / Closely Closely Closely Closely Closely / Closely Closely Closely Closely Closely / Closely / Very / Not Very Not Very / Not Very / Not Very / Not Very / Not Very Not Very / Not Very / Not Very / Not Very / Not Very Not Very Not issues? closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely State of the U.S. economy 36 78/17 41 82/15 44 80/17 48 82/16 N/A N/A 59 97/2 57 96/0 70 98/3 67 97/3 N/A N/A 38 79/17 40 86/12 30 70/23 Terrorist threats to the United 25 66/30 28 70/26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 36 81/19 46 88/11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 26 65/31 31 75/21 19 57/37 States Expiration of Bush tax cuts 23 58/35 24 55/40 24 53/40 23 55/41 18 47/47 48 84/16 43 84/16 37 78/21 40 79/20 31 68/31 21 60/35 31 66/31 17 48/41 The new U.S. Congress 18 52/42 25 60/35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 37 86/14 46 95/5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 20 56/39 24 59/37 11 43/48 The push to repeal the military’s ‘don’t 18 50/44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 37 80/20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 22 55/39 19 52/45 12 41/48 ask, don’t tell’ policy WikiLeaks’ release of U.S. diplomatic 14 45/48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 34 78/22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 13 47/45 20 48/47 9 39/48 secrets The beginnings of the 2012 presidential 13 40/54 18 49/47 14 41/54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 19 53/47 25 65/34 17 57/43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 16 41/54 17 49/47 5 29/61 campaign season 5
  • 6. TOPIC INVESTIGATION – STATE OF THE UNION Will you watch the president’s State of the Union address in January? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Yes 44 75 63 36 32 49 39 No 32 11 15 42 40 34 30 Don’t know 24 14 23 22 29 17 31 What should be the focus of President Obama’s State of the Union address? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Improving the economy and creating jobs 68 65 74 61 69 67 70 Reducing the deficit 13 19 11 19 11 14 13 Bipartisanship in Washington 4 10 2 5 4 5 2 The war on terrorism 3 2 3 5 2 4 2 Don’t know 11 4 10 10 14 10 13 Do you think President Obama will be able to use his State of the Union address to reclaim his ownership of the national agenda? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Yes 27 35 47 10 21 28 25 No 42 38 21 68 40 48 37 Don’t know 31 27 32 22 39 24 38 Do you expect the president’s State of the Union address to have a positive impact, a negative impact or no impact on your perception of President Obama? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Positive impact 30 36 56 11 22 32 29 Negative impact 17 12 5 33 15 18 17 No impact 35 38 24 43 38 36 34 Don’t know 17 14 15 12 25 14 20 6
  • 7. TOPIC INVESTIGATION – THE NEW CONGRESS Which issue should the new Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Elites Congress tackle first? December November December November GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Work to reduce the deficit 35 36 50 46 39 29 35 34 35 Repeal health care reform 26 29 11 13 11 47 22 25 27 Pass another stimulus bill 18 14 20 17 26 12 17 22 15 Pass energy policy legislation 6 4 13 16 8 3 7 8 4 Don’t know 15 16 6 7 16 9 19 11 18 Now that Republicans have gained the majority in the House of Representatives, how effective will they be in Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Elites implementing their agenda? December November December November GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Very effective 11 11 3 2 9 16 7 10 11 Somewhat effective 35 35 36 28 25 52 28 37 33 Not very effective 22 22 40 47 27 16 23 27 18 Not effective at all 11 12 15 21 18 3 11 13 10 Don’t know 21 20 4 2 20 13 30 13 29 Are you confident that Republicans in Congress will be effective leaders? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Yes 28 17 12 57 17 30 26 No 46 73 71 19 45 50 41 Don’t know 26 10 17 24 38 20 33 Which of these best describe what you hope to see from congressional Republicans in the next session of Congress? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Work together with President Obama and 51 74 68 32 50 51 51 congressional Democrats Work to block President Obama’s agenda 20 11 10 32 18 21 18 Work to implement the Republican agenda 12 13 6 26 6 15 10 Don’t know 17 2 16 10 26 13 21 7
  • 8. Which of these best describe what you hope to see from President Obama in 2011? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Compromise with congressional 49 59 34 71 45 54 45 Republicans Focus on pushing the White House agenda 16 31 29 6 12 17 15 Block the congressional Republican 11 5 17 4 10 12 9 agenda Don’t know 24 4 20 19 34 17 31 With a divided government, do you think there will be progress over the next two years in solving the nation’s problems or will nothing get accomplished? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Nothing will be accomplished 44 55 39 41 51 46 42 There will be progress 30 30 33 35 23 34 27 Don’t know 26 15 28 24 27 21 31 Do you support or oppose the repeal of 'don’t ask, don’t tell' - the military’s current policy which bars openly gay or lesbian troops from serving? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Support the repeal 43 75 59 31 38 44 42 Oppose the repeal 30 14 18 44 28 34 26 Don’t know 27 11 23 26 34 22 32 How would you rate President Obama’s handling of the efforts to repeal ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female He is handling it poorly 34 42 23 52 28 39 29 He is handling it well 26 35 39 16 22 28 24 Don’t know 40 24 38 32 50 33 47 How would you rate Congressional Republicans’ handling of the efforts to repeal ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female They are handling it poorly 39 69 49 28 38 43 35 They are handling it well 17 12 10 30 11 21 12 Don’t know 45 19 41 42 51 36 52 8
  • 9. TOPIC INVESTIGATION – CURRENT EVENTS Do you think President Obama should follow his deficit-reduction commission’s recommendation to raise the retirement age for Social Security from 67 to 68? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Yes 28 70 29 28 28 33 24 No 51 20 49 56 50 49 54 Don’t know 20 9 22 16 22 19 22 Should Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, be prosecuted as a terrorist for publishing more than 250, 000 U.S. diplomatic cables? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Yes 48 49 51 59 34 49 47 No 22 36 20 17 29 29 15 Don’t know 30 15 29 24 37 21 38 TOPIC INVESTIGATION – 2012 POTUS ELECTION Do you think President Obama Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Elites will be re-elected in 2012? December November December November GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Yes 28 26 38 49 50 8 23 30 25 No 48 50 27 23 24 76 47 49 47 Don’t know 24 25 35 28 26 16 30 21 28 Do you think President Obama will face a Democratic primary challenger in 2012? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Yes 51 33 50 58 46 55 48 No 24 52 30 24 19 29 20 Don’t know 24 16 20 18 35 16 32 9
  • 10. Who is most likely to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2012? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Sarah Palin 18 11 15 26 11 17 18 Mitt Romney 13 30 11 17 11 16 10 Mike Huckabee 9 6 9 12 7 9 9 Newt Gingrich 3 5 2 4 2 4 2 Ron Paul 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 Tim Pawlenty 1 3 2 2 1 2 1 Haley Barbour 1 5 0 1 1 1 1 Mitch Daniels 1 3 1 0 2 2 0 John Thune 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 Don’t know 51 34 56 34 63 45 57 How satisfied are you with the lineup of possible Republican presidential candidates thus far? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Very satisfied 10 5 8 17 5 14 6 Somewhat satisfied 22 19 10 43 15 23 21 Somewhat dissatisfied 17 23 14 14 23 18 16 Very dissatisfied 17 38 28 5 17 19 15 Don't know 34 15 39 21 40 25 41 Do you think Sarah Palin is qualified to be president? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Yes 23 11 8 47 17 26 21 No 64 86 85 39 68 65 64 Don’t know 12 4 7 15 15 9 15 Do you think Sarah Palin is a breath of fresh air or a negative Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Elites influence in national politics? December November December November GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female Negative influence 50 50 79 77 75 20 53 50 50 Breath of fresh air 34 28 15 14 15 64 25 36 33 Don’t know 16 22 6 9 10 16 22 15 17 10