The document reports the results of a poll conducted in December 2010 that surveyed 1,000 Americans and 225 Washington D.C. elites on their views of various political leaders and issues. Most respondents believed the country and economy were headed in the wrong direction and that the political system in Washington D.C. was broken. Support for President Obama and other Democratic leaders was higher among D.C. elites than the general public.
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Ppm187 politicoreport
1. POWER AND THE PEOPLE
A POLITICO POLL SERIES, SPONSORED BY QUALCOMM
DECEMBER 15, 2010
METHODOLOGY
On December 3-8, Penn Schoen Berland surveyed 1,000 people in the U.S. with a representative distribution of Americans and 225 Washington D.C. Elites. Margin of error is 3.1%
and 6.53% respectively.
1
2. POLITICO Baseline
In general, do you believe that
things in the country are headed Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC
in the right direction or are they Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP
off on the wrong track? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep GP Ind
Right direction 26 28 26 27 32 27 32 38 41 47 45 49 42 15 19
Wrong track 60 59 61 61 58 61 58 51 54 49 49 45 37 80 64
Don't know 15 13 13 11 11 12 10 11 5 4 6 6 21 5 17
In general, do you believe that the
economy nationwide is headed in Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC
the right direction or is it off on Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP
the wrong track? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep GP Ind
Right direction 26 29 27 24 32 24 38 47 40 43 46 44 41 13 22
Wrong track 59 58 59 64 57 65 51 43 49 48 44 46 39 79 60
Don't know 16 14 14 12 12 11 11 10 11 9 10 10 20 8 18
How much do you feel the Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC
current economic downturn Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP
has affected you? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem GP Rep GP Ind
More than most Americans 23 22 25 23 24 27 4 4 4 5 8 6 25 22 20
Less than most Americans 24 28 27 27 26 24 73 75 73 74 64 74 23 28 21
About the same as others 49 46 46 47 48 47 22 20 23 20 28 20 46 48 53
Don’t know 4 3 3 3 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 6 2 6
Do you think the political Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC
system in Washington Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites
D.C. is broken? December November October September August July December November October September August July GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind
Yes, it is broken 69 70 74 72 72 72 75 67 68 62 73 64 61 77 71
No, it is not broken 15 14 14 15 17 15 20 28 30 34 23 31 19 14 12
Don’t know 15 16 12 13 11 13 5 5 2 4 4 5 20 9 17
Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC
Which is closest to your Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites
views? December November October September August July December November October September August July GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind
The Tea Party Movement is
a fad - it will go away soon 28 29 26 28 28 26 70 70 67 70 60 68 10 41 17
enough
I don’t know what the Tea
Party Movement is well 30 25 33 30 34 31 7 9 9 6 12 11 39 21 25
enough to say
The Tea Party Movement
will become a viable third 22 25 20 20 24 24 14 13 13 11 11 11 31 23 35
party in American politics
Don’t Know 20 21 20 22 17 19 9 8 10 12 13 10 20 16 24
2
3. Overall, how Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites
favorable are December November October September August July December November October Sept. August July
you towards
Fav / Fav / Fav / Fav / Fav / Fav / Fav /
the following Very Unfav / Very Fav / Unfav Very Fav / Unfav Very Fav / Very Fav / Unfav Very Fav / Unfav Very Unfav / Unfav / Unfav / Unfav / Unfav / Unfav /
people? fav DK fav / DK fav / DK fav Unfav / DK fav / DK fav / DK fav DK VF DK VF DK VF DK VF DK VF DK
Barack Obama 22 47/48/5 24 45/47/8 24 46/47/6 26 48/48/4 28 51/46/4 25 48/47/5 29 66/33/2 32 64/36/0 35 61/37/1 35 64/35/1 32 66/33/0 36 66/34/0
Hillary Clinton 22 55/38/7 22 53/40/8 21 52/39/9 20 51/42/6 21 53/41/7 20 49/45/6 29 74/25/0 33 68/31/0 34 68/30/3 33 72/28/1 32 68/32/0 34 74/25/1
George W. Bush 16 38/54/8 14 38/54/8 14 39/52/9 15 44/50/6 14 37/57/6 14 38/54/7 8 26/74/0 8 26/72/2 12 30/67/2 8 24/72/4 6 31/68/0 7 24/74/1
Sarah Palin 14 36/53/10 14 36/53/12 14 36/53/11 15 41/50/9 14 35/57/8 14 39/53/8 5 14/84/1 2 14/85/2 4 22/75/3 3 15/82/2 4 18/80/1 3 16/82/2
John McCain 11 41/47/12 11 43/46/10 12 44/46/11 13 47/44/10 11 41/50/10 13 43/48/10 5 34/65/0 7 40/59/1 11 39/58/3 8 41/57/1 6 42/57/1 6 39/60/1
Joe Biden 10 35/45/21 12 38/46/17 10 37/46/16 11 39/46/15 10 39/45/16 10 37/49/13 19 62/36/2 19 61/37/1 18 56/42/2 20 58/39/2 20 57/39/4 21 58/40/2
Mike Huckabee 10 32/30/37 11 33/33/34 11 35/29/36 14 37/28/36 11 33/31/36 11 36/29/34 5 27/64/10 3 29/66/5 6 30/56/14 5 32/59/10 6 33/54/13 3 26/63/13
Mitt Romney 8 29/33/38 5 26/36/37 8 31/35/35 12 34/32/34 7 29/33/37 9 30/35/34 8 29/61/10 5 34/60/6 11 35/56/10 6 34/57/8 5 33/56/11 4 32/60/8
Nancy Pelosi 7 24/50/25 6 24/52/24 7 24/52/24 7 26/48/26 7 25/50/25 5 23/52/25 10 40/58/2 13 42/56/1 12 40/56/3 12 42/53/5 12 44/52/4 12 45/52/3
Harry Reid 5 16/34/49 4 17/37/46 3 13/35/51 4 14/32/54 3 14/35/52 3 15/34/51 6 35/53/12 4 40/48/12 3 33/56/11 6 39/47/13 6 34/47/20 5 38/53/10
John Boehner 5 18/23/59 6 18/25/56 5 17/22/61 5 16/20/64 4 12/21/67 4 16/21/63 9 23/57/20 4 26/60/13 4 22/58/21 5 20/58/22 4 20/49/31 1 17/55/28
Haley Barbour 4 10/20/71 4 12/18/70 4 12/17/71 4 13/17/71 2 10/18/73 3 11/19/70 3 17/46/36 6 24/45/32 8 23/40/37 4 23/42/36 4 18/37/46 3 20/35/45
Mitch McConnell 3 13/24/63 3 13/26/60 3 14/26/60 5 16/21/63 3 12/25/63 2 13/23/64 5 18/60/21 2 20/58/22 4 23/50/27 2 19/58/23 4 21/50/28 2 21/53/27
Tim Pawlenty 3 11/18/71 3 14/20/67 4 12/17/71 5 16/15/70 3 11/17/72 3 12/18/69 5 23/31/46 2 24/33/42 4 21/36/43 4 21/39/39 6 26/26/48 2 17/34/50
U.S. Congress 3 19/67/14 2 21/63/16 4 23/65/13 5 25/61/14 4 24/66/9 5 25/64/11 1 19/78/2 0 25/74/1 0 22/75/2 1 28/70/2 2 31/68/0 3 29/69/1
Michael Steele 2 11/25/64 2 11/26/62 3 13/25/63 3 14/23/64 2 11/25/64 1 11/29/59 1 12/76/12 2 20/69/11 2 19/66/15 2 12/73/15 1 16/64/20 0 11/74/15
Tim Kaine 2 10/16/74 1 8/21/71 3 11/16/73 3 11/17/73 2 10/15/75 2 10/16/73 14 45/36/18 11 51/25/24 9 40/34/26 12 52/27/21 8 41/27/32 12 52/30/18
3
4. If Barack Obama runs for re-
election in 2012, in general,
are you more likely to vote for
President Obama or for the Gen Gen DC DC DC
Republican Party’s candidate Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP
for president? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep GP Ind
The Republican Candidate 38 40 40 43 40 42 27 29 36 30 32 28 6 84 28
Barack Obama 37 37 39 35 38 37 57 58 52 55 50 56 73 6 29
Other 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 3 4 2 3 2 2 1 10
Don’t know 21 20 18 19 19 18 14 9 9 13 15 14 19 9 33
If the 2012 Presidential election Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC
were held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP GP
more likely to vote for? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep Ind
Barack Obama 48 46 50 45 50 48 74 73 67 71 70 73 82 13 47
Sarah Palin 33 33 35 37 33 36 16 13 21 16 17 17 8 71 23
Don’t know 18 20 15 18 17 16 10 14 12 13 13 10 10 16 30
If the 2012 Presidential election Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC
were held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP GP
more likely to vote for? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep Ind
Barack Obama 40 40 41 38 42 39 60 62 57 59 57 63 76 8 33
Mitt Romney 33 32 34 38 33 35 29 33 36 30 32 26 6 71 26
Don’t know 27 28 25 24 24 26 11 5 7 12 12 11 18 21 41
If the 2012 Presidential election Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC
were held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP GP
more likely to vote for? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep Ind
Barack Obama 39 39 41 40 42 39 60 65 55 59 52 60 73 7 35
Tim Pawlenty 22 21 21 26 23 21 23 20 26 21 22 19 5 50 14
Don’t know 38 40 38 34 35 40 17 15 19 19 26 22 22 43 51
If the 2012 Presidential election Gen Gen Gen DC DC
were held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP GP
more likely to vote for? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep Ind
Barack Obama 40 40 41 40 43 39 60 66 68 64 60 65 76 6 35
Mike Huckabee 34 34 35 38 35 35 29 24 22 25 27 23 7 74 25
Don’t know 26 26 23 22 22 25 11 10 10 11 14 12 17 21 40
If the 2012 Presidential election Gen Gen Gen DC DC DC
were held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP GP
more likely to vote for? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep Ind
Barack Obama 40 40 40 38 43 39 58 66 56 57 56 60 74 7 35
Haley Barbour 19 20 19 24 21 21 20 20 24 23 21 19 4 44 12
Don’t know 41 40 41 38 36 40 22 14 20 20 23 22 23 49 53
4
5. CURRENT EVENTS
Which of
these best
Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites
describes
December November October September August December November October September August GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind
how closely
you have
been
following
each of these
events / Closely Closely / Closely Closely Closely Closely Closely / Closely Closely Closely Closely Closely / Closely /
Very / Not Very Not Very / Not Very / Not Very / Not Very / Not Very Not Very / Not Very / Not Very / Not Very / Not Very Not Very Not
issues? closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely
State of the U.S.
economy
36 78/17 41 82/15 44 80/17 48 82/16 N/A N/A 59 97/2 57 96/0 70 98/3 67 97/3 N/A N/A 38 79/17 40 86/12 30 70/23
Terrorist threats
to the United 25 66/30 28 70/26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 36 81/19 46 88/11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 26 65/31 31 75/21 19 57/37
States
Expiration of
Bush tax cuts
23 58/35 24 55/40 24 53/40 23 55/41 18 47/47 48 84/16 43 84/16 37 78/21 40 79/20 31 68/31 21 60/35 31 66/31 17 48/41
The new U.S.
Congress
18 52/42 25 60/35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 37 86/14 46 95/5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 20 56/39 24 59/37 11 43/48
The push to
repeal the
military’s ‘don’t 18 50/44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 37 80/20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 22 55/39 19 52/45 12 41/48
ask, don’t tell’
policy
WikiLeaks’
release of U.S.
diplomatic
14 45/48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 34 78/22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 13 47/45 20 48/47 9 39/48
secrets
The beginnings
of the 2012
presidential 13 40/54 18 49/47 14 41/54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 19 53/47 25 65/34 17 57/43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 16 41/54 17 49/47 5 29/61
campaign
season
5
6. TOPIC INVESTIGATION – STATE OF THE UNION
Will you watch the president’s State of
the Union address in January? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Yes 44 75 63 36 32 49 39
No 32 11 15 42 40 34 30
Don’t know 24 14 23 22 29 17 31
What should be the focus of President
Obama’s State of the Union address? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Improving the economy and creating jobs 68 65 74 61 69 67 70
Reducing the deficit 13 19 11 19 11 14 13
Bipartisanship in Washington 4 10 2 5 4 5 2
The war on terrorism 3 2 3 5 2 4 2
Don’t know 11 4 10 10 14 10 13
Do you think President Obama will be
able to use his State of the Union
address to reclaim his ownership of the
national agenda? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Yes 27 35 47 10 21 28 25
No 42 38 21 68 40 48 37
Don’t know 31 27 32 22 39 24 38
Do you expect the president’s State of
the Union address to have a positive
impact, a negative impact or no impact
on your perception of President Obama? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Positive impact 30 36 56 11 22 32 29
Negative impact 17 12 5 33 15 18 17
No impact 35 38 24 43 38 36 34
Don’t know 17 14 15 12 25 14 20
6
7. TOPIC INVESTIGATION – THE NEW CONGRESS
Which issue should the new Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Elites
Congress tackle first? December November December November GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Work to reduce the deficit 35 36 50 46 39 29 35 34 35
Repeal health care reform 26 29 11 13 11 47 22 25 27
Pass another stimulus bill 18 14 20 17 26 12 17 22 15
Pass energy policy legislation 6 4 13 16 8 3 7 8 4
Don’t know 15 16 6 7 16 9 19 11 18
Now that Republicans have gained the
majority in the House of Representatives,
how effective will they be in Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Elites
implementing their agenda? December November December November GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Very effective 11 11 3 2 9 16 7 10 11
Somewhat effective 35 35 36 28 25 52 28 37 33
Not very effective 22 22 40 47 27 16 23 27 18
Not effective at all 11 12 15 21 18 3 11 13 10
Don’t know 21 20 4 2 20 13 30 13 29
Are you confident that Republicans in
Congress will be effective leaders? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Yes 28 17 12 57 17 30 26
No 46 73 71 19 45 50 41
Don’t know 26 10 17 24 38 20 33
Which of these best describe what you
hope to see from congressional
Republicans in the next session of
Congress? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Work together with President Obama and
51 74 68 32 50 51 51
congressional Democrats
Work to block President Obama’s agenda 20 11 10 32 18 21 18
Work to implement the Republican agenda 12 13 6 26 6 15 10
Don’t know 17 2 16 10 26 13 21
7
8. Which of these best describe what you
hope to see from President Obama in
2011? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Compromise with congressional
49 59 34 71 45 54 45
Republicans
Focus on pushing the White House agenda 16 31 29 6 12 17 15
Block the congressional Republican
11 5 17 4 10 12 9
agenda
Don’t know 24 4 20 19 34 17 31
With a divided government, do you think
there will be progress over the next two
years in solving the nation’s problems
or will nothing get accomplished? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Nothing will be accomplished 44 55 39 41 51 46 42
There will be progress 30 30 33 35 23 34 27
Don’t know 26 15 28 24 27 21 31
Do you support or oppose the repeal of
'don’t ask, don’t tell' - the military’s
current policy which bars openly gay or
lesbian troops from serving? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Support the repeal 43 75 59 31 38 44 42
Oppose the repeal 30 14 18 44 28 34 26
Don’t know 27 11 23 26 34 22 32
How would you rate President Obama’s
handling of the efforts to repeal ‘don’t
ask, don’t tell’? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
He is handling it poorly 34 42 23 52 28 39 29
He is handling it well 26 35 39 16 22 28 24
Don’t know 40 24 38 32 50 33 47
How would you rate Congressional
Republicans’ handling of the efforts to
repeal ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
They are handling it poorly 39 69 49 28 38 43 35
They are handling it well 17 12 10 30 11 21 12
Don’t know 45 19 41 42 51 36 52
8
9. TOPIC INVESTIGATION – CURRENT EVENTS
Do you think President Obama should
follow his deficit-reduction
commission’s recommendation to raise
the retirement age for Social Security
from 67 to 68? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Yes 28 70 29 28 28 33 24
No 51 20 49 56 50 49 54
Don’t know 20 9 22 16 22 19 22
Should Julian Assange, the founder of
WikiLeaks, be prosecuted as a terrorist
for publishing more than 250, 000 U.S.
diplomatic cables? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Yes 48 49 51 59 34 49 47
No 22 36 20 17 29 29 15
Don’t know 30 15 29 24 37 21 38
TOPIC INVESTIGATION – 2012 POTUS ELECTION
Do you think President Obama Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Elites
will be re-elected in 2012? December November December November GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Yes 28 26 38 49 50 8 23 30 25
No 48 50 27 23 24 76 47 49 47
Don’t know 24 25 35 28 26 16 30 21 28
Do you think President Obama will face a
Democratic primary challenger in 2012? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Yes 51 33 50 58 46 55 48
No 24 52 30 24 19 29 20
Don’t know 24 16 20 18 35 16 32
9
10. Who is most likely to win the Republican
presidential nomination in 2012? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Sarah Palin 18 11 15 26 11 17 18
Mitt Romney 13 30 11 17 11 16 10
Mike Huckabee 9 6 9 12 7 9 9
Newt Gingrich 3 5 2 4 2 4 2
Ron Paul 2 1 3 2 2 2 2
Tim Pawlenty 1 3 2 2 1 2 1
Haley Barbour 1 5 0 1 1 1 1
Mitch Daniels 1 3 1 0 2 2 0
John Thune 1 1 1 1 1 2 0
Don’t know 51 34 56 34 63 45 57
How satisfied are you with the lineup of
possible Republican presidential
candidates thus far? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Very satisfied 10 5 8 17 5 14 6
Somewhat satisfied 22 19 10 43 15 23 21
Somewhat dissatisfied 17 23 14 14 23 18 16
Very dissatisfied 17 38 28 5 17 19 15
Don't know 34 15 39 21 40 25 41
Do you think Sarah Palin is qualified to be
president? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Yes 23 11 8 47 17 26 21
No 64 86 85 39 68 65 64
Don’t know 12 4 7 15 15 9 15
Do you think Sarah Palin is a
breath of fresh air or a negative Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Elites
influence in national politics? December November December November GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP Female
Negative influence 50 50 79 77 75 20 53 50 50
Breath of fresh air 34 28 15 14 15 64 25 36 33
Don’t know 16 22 6 9 10 16 22 15 17
10