1. Presentation
1. Sustainable Future Institute
2. Context - Korea/New Zealand
3. Three Sights
4. Creating Intelligent Countries
5. Government Foresight in New Zealand
6. Past Initiatives
7. StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future
8. Lessons Learnt

2. 1. The Sustainable Future Institute
www.sustainablefuture.info
A privately-funded
non-partisan think tank
working for the public good,
contributing strategic
foresight through evidence-
based research and policy
analysis.

3. Project 2058 – The Method
(a) Government (b) NaGonal Assets
Report 7 Exploring the Shared Goals of
Report 1 A Na?onal Sustainable
(c) Future Thinkers Māori (2010)
Development Strategy (2007)
(c) Ideas
Online Video Interviews: World
Online Video Interviews: Report 8 Effec?ve Māori Representa?on
Futures
World Futures in Parliament (2010)
Report 2 New Zealand Central (July 2008 and July 2009)
Government Strategies (2008,2009 and 2010)
Strategy Scenarios Research and Analysis
Report 9 Government‐funded Science
(2007)
Online Video Conversa?ons: Ideas Under the Microscope (2011)
Online Video Conversa?ons: Ideas
about the Future (December
Part 1:
Report 3 Supporting Local about the Future
2008) Report 10 The State of New Zealand’s
Government (2008) (2008)
Resources*
James Duncan Reference Library
Report 4 Institutions for (October 2009)
James Duncan Reference Library
Sustainable Development (2008)
(2009) The Future of Infrastructure in New
A History of Future Thinkers in New Zealand*
Zealand The Future of Food and Agriculture*
Report 5 The Common Elements A History of Future Thinkers in New The State Sector: Looking Forward*
of an NSDS (2008) Zealand (2011)
(d) State of New Zealand’s Future
Part II:
Report 6 Four Possible Futures for New Zealand in 2058
(2008)
Part III:
Na?onal Sustainable Development Strategy for
New Zealand*

4. 2. Context
(i) Physical Analytics
South Korea New Zealand
Land Area (km²) 96,920 267,710
3 ?mes
Coast (km²) 2,413 15, 134
6 ?mes
Borders North Korea None
Natural coal natural gas
Resources tungsten iron ore sand
graphite coal
molybdenum ?mber
lead hydropower
hydropower gold
poten?al limestone

5. 2. (ii) Man-made Analytics
South Korea New Zealand Year
Popula?on 48, 988, 830 4, 291, 900 2011
11 ?mes
Fer?lity Rate 1.192 2.18 2008
Unemployment Rate 3.2% 4.2% 2008
Life Expectancy 79.4 years 80.2 years 2007
Income inequality: 0.312 0.335 2005
Gini co‐efficient (level)
GDP per Capita $27, 657 $27, 036 2008
Gross domes?c expenditure 3.210% 1.206% 2008
on R+D 1/3
Source: (OECD, n.d.)

6. New Zealand’s
Exclusive
Economic
Zone
For every New Zealander
• 1.30 km2 seabed
(0.006 Korean)
(217 times)
• 0.06 km2 land
(0.002 Korean)
(30 times)

7. Number of
livestock by
country per
person

8. 3. Three Sights
1. Hindsight
2. Insight
3. Foresight

9. Hindsight
Sovereignty
SeSlement
Rights, Roles, RepresentaGon
& ResponsibiliGes
Social Reform
IdenGty
Social JusGce
Economic Reform

10. Insight and Foresight
Today, 3 billion made
$2 or less per day. 40:60
Fiky years later,
the developed
60:40
countries & China
grow old – while
Africa & India get
younger.

11. Foresight
Probable future – Forecasting and prediction (Status Quo)
Possible futures – Scenarios, risks and opportunities (Explorative)
Preferred futures – Strategies, propelled by leadership (Visionary)

12. Foresight is foreknowledge (1900)
One Hundred Years Hence
Although the public is wont to
regard predic7ons with an amount
of skep7cism…there is absolutely no
doubt to reason the accuracy of the
foreknowledge which comes from
reading the past and the trend of
current events. Progress cannot be
denied….
P J O’Regan, August 1900, New Zealand

13. Foresight: Where are we going? (2011)
1. Climate change and energy
2. Massive debt (AKA ‘The Great Correc?on’)
3. Water and food shortages/Environmental
issues
4. Five simultaneous game‐changing tech
revolu?ons, tele‐everything
5. Luddites/Individual destruc?ve power
6. Robo?cs/Machine intelligence/
Employment
7. Humans merging with the machines
NASA Chief ScienGst Dennis M. Bushnell

14. Wild Cards
Disasters –
largest and
most recent

15. The Future…
Snowden & Boone (2007). A Leader’s Framework
for Decision Making. Harvard Business Review.

16. Watch for Weak Signals
Responses from Powerful counGes
– Self‐sufficient, heavily armed and a fortress mentality or
– Serious engagement with all the problems of the planet
Choices for Small counGes
– OpGon 1: Ignore
– OpGon 2: Become an intelligent country
• Adapt (monitor closely what is happening)
• Support global leadership (UN, WB, etc)
• Build alliances and networks
• Try to shape (lead by example)

17.
4. How do we create intelligent countries?
Assumption 1: Global Problems requires Global Solutions (GS)
Assumption 2: GS requires Global Intelligence (GI)
Assumption 3: GI = National Intelligence (NI) x 195 countries
Then the aim is to increase NI+
NI+ = (Hindsight x Insight x Foresight) population

18. Who are the Intelligent Countries?

19. 5. Government Initiatives in 2011
1. Statement of Long-term Fiscal Position
2. Productivity Commission
3. Welfare Working Group – ‘Future Liability Approach’
4. Futures Forum
5. Government-funded Research
6. Local Government Long-term Plans

20. 6. Past Initiatives

21. Four-step
Model
for Planning
Future-
thinking
Initiatives

22. 7. StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future
Workshop March 2011
Pre‐Workshop
Na?on Dates (220 events)
Workbook (Report 12)
Future Studies Course (Dr Peter Bishop)
Workshop
Part 1 – Seong the global context
Part 2 – Where New Zealand is today
Part 3 – Preparing strategy maps
Part 4 – Presen?ng and judging strategy maps
Part 5 – Three workstreams
Part 6 – Presenta?ons
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Na?on Dates (440 events)
WORKING PAPER: STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE PARTICIPANT FEEDBACK | 1
WORKING PAPER 2011/16

23. Strategy Pyramid
*
*
*

24. Strategy Map for Brazil

25. … From previous slide – Strategy Map for Brazil

26. Survey
society

27. Participants
10 groups
X1 designer
X1 college student

28. -#*)"/(?".%$(>%)'?",/'%1"%?'()",/'" '()*+,(-%=8-%8,(%8=%0/(%+-89G)?
The Designers

29. (i) Vision

30. (ii) Strategic Intent

31. (iii) Strategy Map

32. Resulting Themes
• A place where talent wants to live
• Bi‐cultural and Mul?‐cultural New Zealand
• Youth need a voice
• 3 year elec?on cycle is too short
• Cons?tu?onal Review (See www.EmpowernNZ.co.nz)
• Need for a strategy
• Degree of urgency
• Need for greater par?cipa?on

33. 8. Lessons Learnt
Work programme
• Secure funding critical
• Research question needs the right balance of focus and flexibility
• Ability to rewrite/update methodology
• Give yourself lots of time
• Research data can be hard to find
• Analysis uses data to create information for strategic knowledge
• External review is time-consuming and
• Communication involves people
Report Writing
• Use designers to make your ideas come to life
• Mapping data – assurance v communication
• Provide a number of ways to commutate ideas
Events
• Get the right people in the room
• What you do before the event is as important afterwards