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Chainsaw
Conjoint

       Andrew Jeavons
     CEO, Survey Analytics




         Esther LaVielle
Vice President, Survey Analytics
About Survey Analytics
 A suite of interconnected and easy-to-use information collection and
analysis tools, including online surveys, mobile data collection, advanced
                      analytics and data visualization.


                                    	
  Enterprise Research Platform
                                           Mobile Visualization & Analytics
                                    	
  
                                           Mobile Field Data Collection


                                           Mobile Surveys and Panels


                                           Mobile Passive Data Collection
Andrew Jeavons                      Esther LaVielle




   CEO of Survey Analytics        Vice President of Client Services
                                         at Survey Analytics
25 years in the market research
    industry. Background in       Esther is in charge of worldwide
 psychology and statistics, and      client relations. With the
currently focuses on innovation    assistance of her colleagues,
    within survey research.         Survey Analytics has a solid
                                    support network for clients.
Webinar Agenda
1. What do we mean by Chainsaw Conjoint?

2. The theory and logic behind discrete choice conjoint analysis

3. When to use discrete choice conjoint in your research

4. Specific examples of how to use discrete choice conjoint

5. How to design a discrete choice conjoint project

6. How to write a discrete choice conjoint questionnaire

7. How to analyze the results of a discrete choice conjoint project

8. Tips and Best Practices

9. Q & A
What Do We Mean by “Chainsaw” Conjoint?
                     • Simple

                     • Powerful

                     • Easy to Use

                     • Durable
                     • Impressive

                     • Draws Attention

                     • Gets the Job Done
What is Conjoint Analysis?
Type of Trade-off Analysis methodology

Developed over the past 50 years by market researchers and statisticians to
predict the kinds of decisions consumers will make about products by using
questions in a survey.

Conjoint analysis questions presents a series of possible products to consumers and
asks them to make a choice about which one they would pick.

The central idea: For any purchase decision consumers evaluate or “trade-off”
the different characteristics of a product and decide what is more important to
them.

Survey Analytics uses Discrete Choice Conjoint Analysis which best simulates the
purchase process of consumers
Statistics are...
•Not accurate...

•Not magic...

•As good as your design...

•As good as your sample...
The Kitchen
 Sink is Not
   a Good
   Idea...
Wanna Buy A Puppy?

• Breed
• Dog Breeder
• Size
• Price
• Care Needed
• Personality
• Life Span
Theory & Logic of Conjoint Analysis




It will help you evaluate new products or variations against an existing range of products
already offered by your company or within the marketplace.

It’s much cheaper than developing new products for the marketplace with no guarantee of
success.

Get real-time feedback on new products or variations of existing products.

Simulates the decisions your target consumers would make in the market place.

Gives you an idea how a new product with be received
in the marketplace.

Gauge the affect on the choice/price relationship relative
to existing products and features presented.
How do we come up with our numbers ?

Survey Analytics uses a maximum likelihood calculation coupled with
a Nelder-Mead Simplex algorithm.

Design options are random, D-Optimal or your own imported design.
 
Have greater confidence in the results you receive !
Conjoint Analysis
               Core Concepts
1)Attributes/Feature:
Define the attributes of the products for your
market. These are the properties of
your product.

Seattle Tourism Study:

#Hours
Time of Day
Tour Type

2) Levels: The different properties of the
attributes. Define at least two levels for each
of the attributes. 

Hours - 3 levels
Time of day - 4 levels
Tour Type: 5 levels
CORE CONCEPTS
 Conjoint Analysis Core Concepts:
3) Utility Value or Part Worth functions:

These are what are produced by the conjoint analysis. These
can then be used to determine how important an attribute
is to the purchase or choice process and in “market
simulations.”

Utility Value of Hrs on Tour:
1-2hrs = .39
2-4hrs = .45
4-6hrs = .32


4) Relative importance:
How important an attribute is in the purchasing/choice
decision ?
 Example:Of all features to go on tour –
“Time of day” determined which one most chosen
Setting up a Conjoint Analysis Project


Kind of reminds me of
   putting together a
     jigsaw puzzle…..


  All the pieces in the
   project should fit
together before fielding
         the project!
Survey Analytics offers 3
           Conjoint Analysis Designs



Random Design

D-Optimal Design

 Import Design
3 Conjoint Analysis Designs - Defined
Random: Random design is a purely random sample of the possible
   attribute levels. For the number of tasks per respondent
   SurveyAnalytics produces a unique set of attribute configurations to
   be presented to the respondent.
 
D-Optimal: This is a design algorithm that will produce an optimal design
   for the specified number of tasks per respondent and sample size.
   More information on this design algorithm is available in the D-
   Optimal section.
 
Import Design: This allows designs, in the SPSS design format, to be
   imported and used by the SurveyAnalytics DCM module. This is useful
   when users want to use designs not generated by SurveyAnalytics,
   such as fractional factorial orthogonal designs.
# How to Set up a Conjoint Analysis Question

Question Setup for
   Random, D-Optimal,
   and Import Design
   are the same:


   1.Set up Features/
       Attributes

   2. Set up Levels for
     Each attributes


       EXAMPLE:

    Feature: Hours
  Levels: 1-2hr, 2-4hr
How to Set up Conjoint Analysis Parameters




Set up Prohibited Pairs

The engine will not display two levels that have been marked as
"Prohibited" in the same concept (as a product) for the user to
choose.
Prohibited Pairs




Example: A Weird Seattle Tour will never be 4-6 hrs long
Concept Simulator




This can be used to determine what choices will be
 presented to the respondents when your survey is
 actually deployed. Use as Guidance.
D-Optimal Design

Click on Settings >> Design Type >> Doptimal
>> Select Versions >> Start >> Save Settings
D-Optimal Design

Click on Settings >> View Options>> Make changes >> Update Design
Import Design
Import Design allows designs, in the SPSS design format, to be imported and used by the
Survey Analytics DCM module. This is useful when users want to use designs not generated
by Survey Analytics, such as fractional factorial orthogonal designs.



Step 1: Start by adding a Conjoint DCM question as
is walked through above. 

Ensure that under 'Task Count' and 'Concepts Per
Task' you choose the same numbers as that you
have in the Excel sheet you are
going to import


Step 2: Click on 'Settings'.
In the in-line popup in ’
Design type' choose 'Import’
Conjoint Analysis Survey Preview
Conjoint Analysis Preview with Pictures
  Review Data:
Utility Calculation & Relative Importance
Relative Importance


Relative Importance of attributes
Displayed as Pie chart

*Shows here that Tour Type
Is the most significant feature/
attribute which determines what
tour they want to take.
Relative Importance and Average Utility Table




The tour type is
the most important attribute
                               Weird is GOOD!   Chocolate is popular
Best & Worst Profile


The tour type is best liked.
Weird works.




   The tour type is best liked.
   Weird works.
Market Segmentation Simulator
    Using existing Data from Conjoint Analysis
Market Segment Simulator gives you
Market Segmentation existthe ability to "predict" the market share of new
products and concepts that may not
                                   Simulator
                                     today.

Ability to measure the "Gain" or "Loss" in market share based on changes to existing
products in the given market.




                         Important steps in Conjoint Simulation:

1- Describe/Identify the different products or concepts that you want to investigate. We
call "Profiles".

Example: Tour Type: Weird, Hours: 1-2 , Time of Day: Evening

2- Find out all the existing products that are available in that market segment and
simulate the market share of the products to establish a baseline.

3-Try out new services and ideas and see how the market share shifts based on new
products and configurations.
Setting up a Simulator

1) Click on Online tools >>Name Simulator Profile>>change profiles




2) Click on                   to see results!
Results: Simulator Output Defined
 
The market simulator uses utility values to project the
probability of choice and hence the market share
Now that we know 
how to use this . .

 
What can we ask
and find out with the 
Market Segmentation Simulator?
Segmentation Simulator
Quick Example: What happens if have a tour of 1-2 hours as
opposed to 4-6 hours in the afternoon for “Weird Seattle” ?

Answer: We find that the 1-2 hour tour would attract about 75%
of the market share.
Tips for A Successful Conjoint Analysis Project
Best Practices: Where to Begin?
You must use qualitative research first!
What are the top attributes? 
What range? 
What language?



 
A focus group or surveys with open-ended 
questions will help define your top attributes 
needed for your study

Use Crowdsourcing tools: IdeaScale

+ Other survey methods
What Sample Size To Start With?
Sample size is a question that comes up very frequently. Richard Johnson, one of the
inventors of conjoint analysis, has presented the following rule of thumb for
sample size in choice based conjoint:

(nta/C) > 1000

Where n = the number of respondents x t= the number of tasks x a=the number of
alternatives per task / C= the largest number of level for any one attribute.

So if you have 500 respondents, 3 tasks per respondent, 2 alternatives per task
and the maximum number of levels on an attribute is 3 you get:

(500 x 3 x 2) / 3 = 1000

Generally speaking sample sizes tend to be around 200 – 1200 respondents, admittedly
a wide range. 300 comes up most often for a single homogeneous group of subjects.
Practices & Tips: Surveys with Conjoint Analysis
Keep the options clear and simple as possible

No more than 20 trade-off exercises
No more than 5-6 attributes
Keep the ranges simple
 
You can ask more intimate questions of current
customers than potential customers, but don’t let that
stop you from trying!

Follow general good online survey techniques
Test your survey

Make it clear responses are kept strictly confidential
Keep survey to 15-20 minutes

Provide incentives
Survey Analytics Discrete Choice Conjoint Vs. Competition



Discrete Choice Conjoint Analysis
Flexible pricing available

Most user-friendly conjoint tool on the market

Real-time reporting

Pricing includes integrated research tools that would enhance efficiencies and
depth and research strategies

Dedicated account management and support included
Thank	
  You!


                                  Andrew	
  Jeavons,	
  andrew.jeavons@surveyanaly9cs.com




sales-­‐team@surveyanaly9cs.com     Esther	
  LaVielle,	
  esther.rmah@surveyanaly9cs.com


         800-­‐326-­‐5570

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Chainsaw Conjoint

  • 1. Chainsaw Conjoint Andrew Jeavons CEO, Survey Analytics Esther LaVielle Vice President, Survey Analytics
  • 2. About Survey Analytics A suite of interconnected and easy-to-use information collection and analysis tools, including online surveys, mobile data collection, advanced analytics and data visualization.  Enterprise Research Platform Mobile Visualization & Analytics   Mobile Field Data Collection Mobile Surveys and Panels Mobile Passive Data Collection
  • 3. Andrew Jeavons Esther LaVielle CEO of Survey Analytics Vice President of Client Services at Survey Analytics 25 years in the market research industry. Background in Esther is in charge of worldwide psychology and statistics, and client relations. With the currently focuses on innovation assistance of her colleagues, within survey research. Survey Analytics has a solid support network for clients.
  • 4. Webinar Agenda 1. What do we mean by Chainsaw Conjoint? 2. The theory and logic behind discrete choice conjoint analysis 3. When to use discrete choice conjoint in your research 4. Specific examples of how to use discrete choice conjoint 5. How to design a discrete choice conjoint project 6. How to write a discrete choice conjoint questionnaire 7. How to analyze the results of a discrete choice conjoint project 8. Tips and Best Practices 9. Q & A
  • 5. What Do We Mean by “Chainsaw” Conjoint? • Simple • Powerful • Easy to Use • Durable • Impressive • Draws Attention • Gets the Job Done
  • 6. What is Conjoint Analysis? Type of Trade-off Analysis methodology Developed over the past 50 years by market researchers and statisticians to predict the kinds of decisions consumers will make about products by using questions in a survey. Conjoint analysis questions presents a series of possible products to consumers and asks them to make a choice about which one they would pick. The central idea: For any purchase decision consumers evaluate or “trade-off” the different characteristics of a product and decide what is more important to them. Survey Analytics uses Discrete Choice Conjoint Analysis which best simulates the purchase process of consumers
  • 7. Statistics are... •Not accurate... •Not magic... •As good as your design... •As good as your sample...
  • 8. The Kitchen Sink is Not a Good Idea...
  • 9. Wanna Buy A Puppy? • Breed • Dog Breeder • Size • Price • Care Needed • Personality • Life Span
  • 10. Theory & Logic of Conjoint Analysis It will help you evaluate new products or variations against an existing range of products already offered by your company or within the marketplace. It’s much cheaper than developing new products for the marketplace with no guarantee of success. Get real-time feedback on new products or variations of existing products. Simulates the decisions your target consumers would make in the market place. Gives you an idea how a new product with be received in the marketplace. Gauge the affect on the choice/price relationship relative to existing products and features presented.
  • 11. How do we come up with our numbers ? Survey Analytics uses a maximum likelihood calculation coupled with a Nelder-Mead Simplex algorithm. Design options are random, D-Optimal or your own imported design.   Have greater confidence in the results you receive !
  • 12. Conjoint Analysis Core Concepts 1)Attributes/Feature: Define the attributes of the products for your market. These are the properties of your product. Seattle Tourism Study: #Hours Time of Day Tour Type 2) Levels: The different properties of the attributes. Define at least two levels for each of the attributes.  Hours - 3 levels Time of day - 4 levels Tour Type: 5 levels
  • 13. CORE CONCEPTS Conjoint Analysis Core Concepts: 3) Utility Value or Part Worth functions: These are what are produced by the conjoint analysis. These can then be used to determine how important an attribute is to the purchase or choice process and in “market simulations.” Utility Value of Hrs on Tour: 1-2hrs = .39 2-4hrs = .45 4-6hrs = .32 4) Relative importance: How important an attribute is in the purchasing/choice decision ? Example:Of all features to go on tour – “Time of day” determined which one most chosen
  • 14. Setting up a Conjoint Analysis Project Kind of reminds me of putting together a jigsaw puzzle….. All the pieces in the project should fit together before fielding the project!
  • 15. Survey Analytics offers 3 Conjoint Analysis Designs Random Design D-Optimal Design Import Design
  • 16. 3 Conjoint Analysis Designs - Defined Random: Random design is a purely random sample of the possible attribute levels. For the number of tasks per respondent SurveyAnalytics produces a unique set of attribute configurations to be presented to the respondent.   D-Optimal: This is a design algorithm that will produce an optimal design for the specified number of tasks per respondent and sample size. More information on this design algorithm is available in the D- Optimal section.   Import Design: This allows designs, in the SPSS design format, to be imported and used by the SurveyAnalytics DCM module. This is useful when users want to use designs not generated by SurveyAnalytics, such as fractional factorial orthogonal designs.
  • 17. # How to Set up a Conjoint Analysis Question Question Setup for Random, D-Optimal, and Import Design are the same: 1.Set up Features/ Attributes 2. Set up Levels for Each attributes EXAMPLE: Feature: Hours Levels: 1-2hr, 2-4hr
  • 18. How to Set up Conjoint Analysis Parameters Set up Prohibited Pairs The engine will not display two levels that have been marked as "Prohibited" in the same concept (as a product) for the user to choose.
  • 19. Prohibited Pairs Example: A Weird Seattle Tour will never be 4-6 hrs long
  • 20. Concept Simulator This can be used to determine what choices will be presented to the respondents when your survey is actually deployed. Use as Guidance.
  • 21. D-Optimal Design Click on Settings >> Design Type >> Doptimal >> Select Versions >> Start >> Save Settings
  • 22. D-Optimal Design Click on Settings >> View Options>> Make changes >> Update Design
  • 23. Import Design Import Design allows designs, in the SPSS design format, to be imported and used by the Survey Analytics DCM module. This is useful when users want to use designs not generated by Survey Analytics, such as fractional factorial orthogonal designs. Step 1: Start by adding a Conjoint DCM question as is walked through above.  Ensure that under 'Task Count' and 'Concepts Per Task' you choose the same numbers as that you have in the Excel sheet you are going to import Step 2: Click on 'Settings'. In the in-line popup in ’ Design type' choose 'Import’
  • 25. Conjoint Analysis Preview with Pictures
  • 26.   Review Data: Utility Calculation & Relative Importance
  • 27. Relative Importance Relative Importance of attributes Displayed as Pie chart *Shows here that Tour Type Is the most significant feature/ attribute which determines what tour they want to take.
  • 28. Relative Importance and Average Utility Table The tour type is the most important attribute Weird is GOOD! Chocolate is popular
  • 29. Best & Worst Profile The tour type is best liked. Weird works. The tour type is best liked. Weird works.
  • 30. Market Segmentation Simulator Using existing Data from Conjoint Analysis
  • 31. Market Segment Simulator gives you Market Segmentation existthe ability to "predict" the market share of new products and concepts that may not Simulator today. Ability to measure the "Gain" or "Loss" in market share based on changes to existing products in the given market. Important steps in Conjoint Simulation: 1- Describe/Identify the different products or concepts that you want to investigate. We call "Profiles". Example: Tour Type: Weird, Hours: 1-2 , Time of Day: Evening 2- Find out all the existing products that are available in that market segment and simulate the market share of the products to establish a baseline. 3-Try out new services and ideas and see how the market share shifts based on new products and configurations.
  • 32. Setting up a Simulator 1) Click on Online tools >>Name Simulator Profile>>change profiles 2) Click on to see results!
  • 33. Results: Simulator Output Defined   The market simulator uses utility values to project the probability of choice and hence the market share
  • 34. Now that we know  how to use this . .   What can we ask and find out with the  Market Segmentation Simulator?
  • 35. Segmentation Simulator Quick Example: What happens if have a tour of 1-2 hours as opposed to 4-6 hours in the afternoon for “Weird Seattle” ? Answer: We find that the 1-2 hour tour would attract about 75% of the market share.
  • 36. Tips for A Successful Conjoint Analysis Project
  • 37. Best Practices: Where to Begin? You must use qualitative research first! What are the top attributes?  What range?  What language?   A focus group or surveys with open-ended  questions will help define your top attributes  needed for your study Use Crowdsourcing tools: IdeaScale + Other survey methods
  • 38. What Sample Size To Start With? Sample size is a question that comes up very frequently. Richard Johnson, one of the inventors of conjoint analysis, has presented the following rule of thumb for sample size in choice based conjoint: (nta/C) > 1000 Where n = the number of respondents x t= the number of tasks x a=the number of alternatives per task / C= the largest number of level for any one attribute. So if you have 500 respondents, 3 tasks per respondent, 2 alternatives per task and the maximum number of levels on an attribute is 3 you get: (500 x 3 x 2) / 3 = 1000 Generally speaking sample sizes tend to be around 200 – 1200 respondents, admittedly a wide range. 300 comes up most often for a single homogeneous group of subjects.
  • 39. Practices & Tips: Surveys with Conjoint Analysis Keep the options clear and simple as possible No more than 20 trade-off exercises No more than 5-6 attributes Keep the ranges simple   You can ask more intimate questions of current customers than potential customers, but don’t let that stop you from trying! Follow general good online survey techniques Test your survey Make it clear responses are kept strictly confidential Keep survey to 15-20 minutes Provide incentives
  • 40. Survey Analytics Discrete Choice Conjoint Vs. Competition Discrete Choice Conjoint Analysis Flexible pricing available Most user-friendly conjoint tool on the market Real-time reporting Pricing includes integrated research tools that would enhance efficiencies and depth and research strategies Dedicated account management and support included
  • 41. Thank  You! Andrew  Jeavons,  andrew.jeavons@surveyanaly9cs.com sales-­‐team@surveyanaly9cs.com Esther  LaVielle,  esther.rmah@surveyanaly9cs.com 800-­‐326-­‐5570