1. 5 Approaches to dealing with
uncertainty in CCA
Sophea Tim-u5495825
Suradi-u5544996

2. 2

3. OUTLINE
• Climate Change Adaptation (CCA)
Concept
• The Role of uncertainty
• Managing uncertainty – five methods
• Conclusion
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4. 4
CCA: Living with climate change
• An automatic or planned response to
change that minimises the adverse effects
and maximises any benefits.
• Now and near future time-basis
• Anticipatory, Autonomous, Planned
effects
benefits
Parry et al. 2007

5. The Role of uncertainty
• 2 sources of uncertainty:
 Scientific
 Future human & behaviour
• Being used as a delaying tactic
• Despite uncertainties, decisions have to
be made
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6. 6

7. Managing uncertainty – five methods
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1. “no-regrets”
2. reversible and flexible
3. have “safety margins”
4. soft adaptation strategies
5. have shorter decision time horizons.

8. • measures constitute a first category of
strategies that are able to cope with
climate uncertainty.
• generates benefits even in forecasts
reveal wrong.
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1. “no-regrets”

9. • favour strategies that are reversible and
flexible over irreversible choices.
• The aim is to keep as low as possible the
cost of being wrong about future climate
change.
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2. reversible and flexible

10. • reduce vulnerability at null or low costs
• practical applications recently (e.g.
manage sea level rise or water
investments
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3. have “safety margins”

11. • institutional or financial tools rather than
technical (e.g. land-use plans, insurance
schemes or early warning systems)
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4. soft adaptation strategies

12. • uncertainty regarding future climate
conditions increases rapidly with time.
• reducing the lifetime of investments is an
option to reduce uncertainty and
corresponding costs.
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5. have shorter decision time horizons.

13. Adaptation In Agriculture
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Options Ranking
Crop
Insurance
+ + + 1
Irrigation + - + 2
Shorter
rotation
time
- - + 2
Dev.
Resistant
crops
++ 1
The options are ranked first and coloured in green when they are evaluated positively in light of the present
analysis. Other options, ranked second and coloured in yellow, have to be considered in spite of their lack of
flexibility because this drawback is compensated either by the fact that they yield benefits in the current climate,
by the availability of cheap safety margins, or by the reduction of decision horizons,
no-regrets reversible and
flexible
“safety margins” soft strategies
shorter decision
time horizons
Adaptation +
Mitigation

14. Ideally a “win-win-win” situation for
mitigation, adaptation and sustainability
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15. Conclusion
• Adaptation programs and its
implementation is a dynamic processes,
will be efficient if it is always updated.
• The need for synergies between mitigation
and adaptation is paramount because both
like two sides of the same coin
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16. References
Hallegatte, S 2009, Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change, Global Environmental Change,
vol.19, pp. 240–247.
Hallegatte, et al. 2012. “Investment Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty: Application to Climate
Change.” The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 6193.
Parry et al. 2007. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, CUP.
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17. Thank you
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