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Why did you
make this deck?
To avoid...
Disappointed
Customers
Reduced
Margins
Unnecessary
Stress
Estimation Release Planning
Estimation
An Informed
Guess
We want to know...
Size
Speed
Uncertainty
Cost
Schedule
Requirements Estimation
What makes a
good story?
INVEST
Independent
Negotiable
Valuable
Estimable
Small
Testable
Non Functional Requirements
Requirements Variation
Complexity
Volatility
Completeness
To recap
Requirements Variation
Requirements Variation
Requirements Variation
Requirements Variation
Remember...
Take Notes
Quantifying Risk
Complexity
Volatility
Completeness
Simple (1)
Standard (2)
Complex (3)
Complexity
Volatility
Completeness
Low (1)
Medium (2)
High (3)
Complexity
Volatility
Completeness
Complete (1)
Incomplete (2)
Unknown (3)
Calculate
Risk
Story Size
A mile is a mile...
regardless of
who’s running
Story Points...
3 estimates
Minimum
Likely
Maximum
Yet again...
Take Notes
Take Lots of Notes!
Use the Likely Estimate...
for Planning & Tracking...
T-shirt
sizing
Team Estimation
For each story...
For each story...
X 3
.IN? ;FF ;MMOGJNCIHM h >CM=OMMCIHo
!ONIG;NCIHg
.IH &OH=NCIH;F
2?KOCL?G?HNMg
4$$g
&L;G?QILEMg
2?@;=NILCHAg
#IGGIH;FCNSg
$?P 4;MEMg
.IH 1! 4;MEMg
Now what are
we estimating?
Assumptions?
Agree your
constraints
Determining
initial velocity
Remember....
Don’t forget the
notes!
Estimation Release Planning
Release
Planning
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw
Velocity
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw
Velocity
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw
Velocity
Adjust for
Variation
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw
Velocity
Adjust for
Variation
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw
Velocity
Adjust for
Variation
Build dev
capacity plan
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw
Velocity
Adjust for
Variation
Build dev
capacity plan
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw
Velocity
Adjust for
Variation
Build dev
capacity plan
Adjust for
Velocity change
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw
Velocity
Adjust for
Variation
Build dev
capacity plan
Adjust for
Velocity change
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw
Velocity
Adjust for
Variation
Build dev
capacity plan
Adjust for
Velocity change
Determine no
of iterations
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw
Velocity
Adjust for
Variation
Build dev
capacity plan
Adjust for
Velocity change
Determine no
of iterations
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw
Velocity
Adjust for
Variation
Build dev
capacity plan
Adjust for
Velocity change
Determine no
of iterations
Prepare
Timeline
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw
Velocity
Adjust for
Variation
Build dev
capacity plan
Adjust for
Velocity change
Determine no
of iterations
Prepare
Timeline
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw
Velocity
Adjust for
Variation
Build dev
capacity plan
Adjust for
Velocity change
Determine no
of iterations
Prepare
Timeline
Finalize
Resource Plan
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw
Velocity
Adjust for
Variation
Build dev
capacity plan
Adjust for
Velocity change
Determine no
of iterations
Prepare
Timeline
Finalize
Resource Plan
Get Raw Scope
Get Raw
Velocity
Adjust for
Variation
Build dev
capacity plan
Adjust for
Velocity change
Determine no
of iterations
Prepare
Timeline
Finalize
Resource Plan Publish!!
Adjust for Scope Variation
Project Risk Profile
Inception RFP Response
Time&
Materials
FixedPrice
,IQ?MN 2CME
(CAB?MN 2CME
Uncertainty
CommercialRisk
Build a Dev Capacity Plan
Identify....
available dev pair days...
Consider...
-;R 3CT?g
(IFC>;SMg
6;=;NCIHg
3C=EH?MMg
2;GJOJg
#IGJ;HS %P?HNg
4L;CHCHAg
,I=;NCIH -IP?g
/@@MBIL?g
$CMNLC<ON?>g
#IrMIOL=?>g
,?P?L;A?>g
6?FI=CNS .??>Mg
4?=B ,?;>Mg
Adjust for Velocity
Variation
Number of Iterations
Prepare Timeline
Initiation
•Iteration 0 deprecated
•Size & resource this
carefully/ appropriately!
Testing
•System Integration/
UAT/ OAT, Usability...
•Phased? Incremental?
Deployment
Test environments,
testing, rehearsals, data
conversion, training....
Finalize Resource Plan
0
50
100
150
200
I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Likely Scope Maximum Scope CumulativeVelocity
Contingency
Release Plan
What happens next?
The Start
Things Change
If we manage change
well...
Clients are happy!
Your margins are
intact!
Sustainable Pace, a
Successful project...
and a happy team
Questions?
Thank You

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