a brief description of coalition building in Indonesia after the 2009 elections

1. Coalition Building and Power Reconfiguration in Indonesia After the 2009 Parliamentary Elections THE RACE TO ISTANA MERDEKA

2. Three new rules: MPs are determined by votes not party rank Parliamentary threshold: 2.5% votes Candidacy of president: 25% votes or 20% parliament seats from a party or a coalition of parties

3. Results: 9 parties are going to the parliament

4. 11.9% 7.9% 3.4% 2.3% 9.5% 1.8% 1.06% 4.6% 2.8% Votes Transfers 2004-2009 Source: CIRUS Surveyor Group PD PDIP PAN Golkar PKB PPP PKS First Voters Gerindra Hanura

5. Why Democrat Party Wins?

6. The SBY Factor Good Image: Leadership Intellectualism Nationalist religious Reformasi’s Suharto

7. Organized Campaign Political consultant: Fox Indonesia 2 nd largest campaign fund: S$ 35 millions

8. “ Pro-people” policies Cash Transfer Program (BLT) Lower Oil Prices School subsidies

9. Coalition Building Process Phase 1 Popularity > 50% PD PDIP PAN Golkar PKB PPP PKS Gerindra Hanura

10. Coalition Building Process Phase 2 “ Grand Coalition” SBY JK Divorced PD PDIP PKB PKS Gerindra Hanura PPP PAN Golkar

11. Coalition Building Process Phase 3 JK-Win declared “ Faster is Better” Megawati vs. Prabowo PD PDIP Golkar PKB PKS Gerindra Hanura PPP PAN

12. Coalition Building Process Phase 4 “ Grand Coalition”? ? ? ? ? SBY Mega flirting PD Golkar Gerindra Hanura PDIP PAN PPP PKB PKS

13. Coalition Building Process Phase 5 ? ? ? SBY’s running mate ? PD Golkar Gerindra Hanura PDIP PAN PPP PKB PKS

14. Three couples to compete Market Economy Susilo B. Yudhoyono Boediono “ SBY-No” Jusuf Kalla Wiranto “ JK-Win” Megawati Sukarnoputri Prabowo Subianto “ Mega-Bowo” Market Socialism Anti-neoliberal

15. Three couples to compete Market Economy Political Islam: yes Susilo B. Yudhoyono Boediono “ SBY-No” Jusuf Kalla Wiranto “ JK-Win” Megawati Sukarnoputri Prabowo Subianto “ Mega-Bowo” Market Socialism Political Islam: yes Anti-neoliberal Political Islam: yes

16. Possibly Two Rounds

17. Second Round Votes Transfer

18. thanks.