2. Introduction
Go Sugihara
• Born March 1969 in Hiroshima
• Grew up in Oregon (yay!)
• KDDI, Intel(Intel Inside Marketing Program),
Yahoo!(Overture), Google, ATARA
• Specialize in marketing automation systems development and
attribution management, paid search consulting
• Published two books:
– Paid Search: Professional’s Logic
– Attribution: A Complete New Way to Consider Ad Effectiveness
2
5. Conventional Online Ad Campaign and Analytics
Online Ad Campaign
Media and Tactics Your target CPA(Cost Per Acquisition) = $120
10 CVs with $1000 = $100 CPA Great. More budget!
Paid Search
20 CVs with $0 = $0 CPA Really great. Keep using.
Organic Search Campaign Goal
= CV(Conversion)
= Online Purchase
Not good. Reduce budget
5 CVs with $2000 = $400 CPA
or cease campaign.
Banner Ads
Not good. Reduce budget
8 CVs with $1200 = $150 CPA
or cease campaign.
Affiliate Ads
5
6. What Does Actual User Purchase Behavior Look Like?
Banner Ads
Paid Search
Organic Search
Organic Search
Only last tactic that was
Banner Ads clicked gets attributed credit
Affiliate Ads Paid Search
Goal
Assists do not get attributed credit = CV(Conversion )
= Online Purchase
Shouldn’t these “assists” get credited?
6
7. There are Similar Things in the World of Sports
Soccer Hockey
Goal! Goal!
Player A Player B Player C
Player A Player B
Record <Goal> <Assist> Record <Goal> <Double Assist>
In Soccer, Assist is actually an unofficial stats In Hockey, the Art Ross Trophy is awarded
not counted by FIFA, but is counted mainly to NHL player who leads the league in
by numerous soccer-related media. scoring points at the end of the regular season.
Scoring Points = # of Goals + # of Assists
Assists are considered to be valuable
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8. So What is Attribution Management?
A simple definition of “Attribution” (in the marketing world)
= Giving credit where credit is due
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9. Background: Why Attribution Management Started
• Media fragmentation is making it difficult for marketers to see what is happening
– Need to visualize in integrated, holistic fashion
• Economic situation
– Management needs to see hard evidence to approve budget
• Return is maxed out with paid search
• Re-boost of display advertising through DSP/Ad Exchange eco-system
– But still need proof that display advertising really works
• Social media is gaining momentum, but is it really working?
• TV and print? PC and Mobile? Marketing is getting more and more difficult to
make the right decision
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10. 3 Commonly Used Phrases
• Attribution Analysis
An analysis on how much contribution to conversion each of the
marketing tactics had using recorded data (conversion path data)
• Attribution Modeling
Selecting or designing the analytical model most likely to output the
correct contribution results. Depends greatly on business model,
industry, product/service lifecycle, etc.
• Attribution Management
Based on attribution analysis, a practice to optimize and gain
maximum return by re-allocating budget or changing media portfolio
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11. Essential Significance of Attribution Management
• In order to stimulate consumer attitude change, which is the
purpose of advertising, attribution management is a practice
used by companies to restructure marketing activities by
obtaining holistic view of the entire consumer purchase
behavioral trend which is becoming ever-so-complicated and
fragmented
In this difficult time for marketers, it is very important to be able to
visualize what is going on holistically,
so that you have a better chance of making the right marketing decisions
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12. How is it Actually Done?
Attribution Management Processes
Accumulate
Select/implement Select/Design
conversion path
tools Models
data
Run simulation on
Evaluate
Run analysis re-allocated
simulation results
budget
Execute campaign
w/new media
plan
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13. Tools and Conversion Path Data
• Conversion path data:
– is a string of data that can recorded using browser cookies
– browser cookies enables clicks(views) that had direct/indirect relation to
conversion to be connected, creating a path-to-conversion data
– can be recorded up to 10-100+ historical tactics that lead to conversion
Paid Search Ad Network A Organic Search Ad Network B
CV
Keyword: aaa Creative: zzz Keyword: ccc Creative: yyy
2012/9/5 13:00
2012/9/5 12:00 2012/9/4 9:00 2012/9/3 23:00 2012/9/1 14:00
ID: 123
ID: 123 ID: 123 ID: 123 ID: 123
Tools/Solutions Providers CV Path View- Modeling/
Data Thru Analysis
Web analytics Adobe, Google OK OK OK
Ad Effectiveness Measurement LockOn, Bebit, Cyber Agent OK OK No
3PAS DFA, MediaMind, Fringe81, DAC OK Yes OK
Attribution Analytics Market Share, VisualIQ, C3 Metrics, Yes Yes Yes
Adometry
Campaign Management Tools Ignition One, Marin Software, Yes Yes OK
Kenshoo, Adobe
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14. Models
• Equal weight distribution model
Equally divide conversion credit to each tactics
• Hypothesis weight distribution model
Divide conversion credit based on hypothesis or strategy. For instance,
if introduction or growth stage in product life cycle, weigh more on
first clicks, if in maturity stage, weigh more on last clicks
• Statistical weight distribution model
Statistically calculate contribution and correlation of each tactics in
temporal sequence. Econometrics approach
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15. Equal Weight Distribution Model
Equal Weight
Distribution Model
100%
50%
1/ 1/ 1/
30% 3 3 3
First Middle Last
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16. Hypothesis Weight Distribution Model – First Heavy
First Heavy
100% Attribution Model
1/
50% 2
1/ 1/
4 4
First Middle Last
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17. Hypothesis Weight Distribution Model – Last Heavy
Last Heavy
100%
Attribution Model
1/
50% 2
1/ 1/
4 4
First Middle Last
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18. Last Click Attribution Model
Last Click Attribution Model
100% 10
0%
50%
0 0
First Middle Last
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19. Statistical Weight Distribution Model
Tactics (a) increase in ad spend relates to increase in # of
conversions
CV
(a) Tactics (b) increase in ad spend inversely relates to # of
conversions
(b)
Tactics (c) increase in ad spend will relate to # of conversions
but when surpassed certain point it will decrease
(c)
Methodology is to consider the above characteristics of each tactics
and come up with the optimal combination of maximum
Ad Spend conversion to total ad spend
# of CV = invariable + a×AD1 + b×AD2 + c×AD3 +
d×AD4
Factor of each of the variables in regression equation = advertising elasticity = Attribution score
“Where’s the optimal point in the line for the combination to get the most bang for your buck”
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20. Attribution Analysis Steps
Use a model and Apply cost to the Sort Attribution
score each tactic score and CPA by better
= Attribution calculate efficiency =
Scoring Attribution CPA Attribution Rank
Score it Calculate “new” Rank it
CPA taking into
account “assists”
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21. Very Simple Example of Attribution Analysis
Premium Ad Network
Banner Ad Banner Ad Paid Search
CV
Considered to not
have any effectiveness
First Middle Last
Cost $100 $200 $300
Past Attribution 0 0 1
CPA n/a n/a $300
Attribution Score 1/3 1/3 1/3 (Equal Distribution)
Now Attribution CPA $300 $600 $900
Attribution Rank #1 #2 #3
You could say that the 2 banner ads tactics have better ad effectiveness than paid search
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22. Example of Budget Re-Allocation (paid search example)
• Output attribution CPA by each individual keywords (even if there are 1 million
keywords!)
• Given that the keywords have little margin for optimization (for instance, ranked #1 and
have tried changing creative), using your target CPA, decide on what to continue using
and what not
• For those that does not meet the target CPA, shift them to other efficient media
Attribution CPA is less
Continue
than target CPA
Last Click
Effectiveness Attribution CPA is more
Re-allocate to Banner
than target CPA
Clicks Attribution CPA is less
Continue
than target CPA
Impression No Last Click Attribution CPA is more
Re-allocate to Banner
Effectiveness than target CPA
Attribution Score is 0 Re-allocate to Banner
Paid Search No Clicks (no direct/indirect attribution)
No
Impression
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24. Case Study: xxxx
• One of very top online xxxxx site
• Monthly online marketing budget is approx. 65 million Yen
– Paid Search 60 mil Yen
– Banner Ads 5 million Yen (includes premium ads, ad networks,
retargeting, content targeting)
• Target CPA
– Paid Search 6700 Yen
– Banner Ads 12000 Yen
• Issues
– Paid search is effective and efficient with good CPA but has no room
for optimization
– However, clients needs to increase conversions
– Banner ads does not seem to be efficient but can it be better used?
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25. Attribution Analysis Result
Target CPA 6700 Yen
Tactics Cost # of CV Attribution Score Last Click CPA Attribution CPA
Paid Search 60 mil Yen 9000 16000 6666 Yen 3750 Yen
Banner Ads 5 mil Yen 420 830 11904 Yen 6024 Yen
Premium 1.5 mil Yen 50 250 30000 Yen 6000 Yen
Ad Network
1.5 mil Yen 170 155 8823 Yen 9677 Yen
(Google-CT)
Ad Network
1.5 mil Yen 180 400 8333 Yen 3750 Yen
(Google-RM)
Ad Network
0.5 mil Yen 20 25 25000 Yen 20000 Yen
(Yahoo-IM)
Total 65 mil Yen 9420 16830 6900 3862 Yen
• Banner Ads CPA turns out to be 12000 Yen >>> 6000 Yen
– It means that it might be working and there’s opportunities
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26. Re-allocation of Budget
Attribution CPA
Re-allocate
Not efficient budget to
Banner Ads
6700 Yen
High Low
efficiency efficiency
KW1 KW2 KW3 KW4 KW5 KW6 KW7 KW8 KW9 KW10
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27. Re-allocation of Budget
65 mil Yen
Banner Ads:0.5
mil Yen 30 mil Yen
increase
Banner Ads:
35 mil Yen
Paid Search:
60 mil Yen
Paid Search:
30 mil Yen
• No change to total budget
• Shifted 30 mil Yen from paid search to banner ads
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28. Conversion Simulation
Current Simulated
# of CVs +5500 If 30 mil Yen is shifted to Banner Ads,
5500 CVs will likely be generated
9450
-1500 from
decreasing paid
search budget
• Simulation Result
– +5500-1500 CVs = 4000 CVs increase possible
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29. Actual
# of CVs
Simulation line Actual line after
attribution management
Past actual
1 month after実施後1ヶ月 management
attribution
• Client decided to shift budget but less than 30 mil Yen (risk)
• In a month, # of CVs increase accelerated to be close to simulation
– Reason for slow start (hypothesis): effect of banner ads takes some time
• Client was very happy and now we are supporting them in next phase
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31. Current State and Future
Level
High
Cookie-less tracking
Mobile integration
Predictive analytics
Marketing Automation
3rd Generation
Online+Offline
2nd Generation No doubt it’s going to be
Econometric
Online more data-driven and
1st Generation Innovators
Click+ViewThru sophisticated
Online
Early Adopters
Click-based Early Majority
Late Majority
Low
実施後1ヶ月
Time
31
32. Challenges
• Internal Silo-ed programs and execution team
– Many advertisers have silo-ed team function and they want to protect
their own budget
– C-level commitment and leadership and holistic decision making is
necessary
• Agency governance
– When there’s multiple agencies, project management can be difficult
• People
– Data scientist shortage
• McKinsey ”The US faces a shortage of 140K - 190K people with analytical and
managerial expertise and 1.5 million managers/analysts with the skills to make
decisions based on the study of big data”
– Not just number cruncher, someone who really understands marketing
and tactics in operational/planning level
Pretty much the same challenges as IMC
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