7. Problems
Decreased economic growth
Labor shortage – so more immigrant
labor
Less taxes – fewer workers
health care costs
pension costs – burden to taxpayers
retirement age
8. Other countries with these problems
Germany
Russia
Poland
Italy
Spain
Greece
9. AIDS
25 million people
dead as of 2008
Kills adults
8 African countries
have 16-39% of
their adults
infected with HIV
Loss of workers
Loss of people to
raise kids and care
for elderly
10. How Does IndustrializationHow Does Industrialization
Affect Population Size?Affect Population Size?
TheThe
DemographicDemographic
TransitionTransition
11. Overall
Shows what
happens to countries
as they move from
developing to
developed nations
Economic
development and
family planning are
key factors
Overall: first the
death rate goes
down, then the birth
rate
16. Stage 1: Pre-Stage 1: Pre-
IndustrialIndustrial
High birth rateHigh birth rate
(high IMR)(high IMR)
High death rateHigh death rate
Low pop growthLow pop growth
17. Stage 2: TransitionalStage 2: Transitional
IndustrializatioIndustrializatio
nn
foodfood
availabilityavailability
Health careHealth care
Birth rate staysBirth rate stays
highhigh
Death rateDeath rate
begins to fallbegins to fall
Pop growsPop grows
Some
countries get
stuck here
18. Stage 3:Stage 3:
IndustrialIndustrial
Birth rate falls toBirth rate falls to
near death ratenear death rate
better jobs andbetter jobs and
education foreducation for
womenwomen
Decline in IMRDecline in IMR
Pop growth ratePop growth rate
continues, but iscontinues, but is
21. Stage 4: Post-IndustrialStage 4: Post-Industrial
Then, birth rateThen, birth rate
declines more; lessdeclines more; less
than death rate,than death rate,
negative pop growthnegative pop growth
UnUnsustainability tosustainability to
sustainabilitysustainability
Very fewVery few countriescountries
have made it herehave made it here
23. Population DensityPopulation Density
# of indiv. of a species# of indiv. of a species
unit of areaunit of area
A better way to describeA better way to describe
thethe size of a populationsize of a population
24. Dependent on:Dependent on:
Birth rate (Birth rate (bb ))
Death rate (Death rate (dd ))
Immigration (Immigration (ii ))
Emigration (Emigration (ee ))
What Causes PopulationsWhat Causes Populations
to Change in Size?to Change in Size?
25.
26. Rate of change (Rate of change ( rr ) =) =
birth rate (birth rate (bb)-death rate ()-death rate (dd ) x) x
100100
r = 40 - 20r = 40 - 20
1000 10001000 1000
rr =0.04 - 0.02 x 100 = 2% per=0.04 - 0.02 x 100 = 2% per
What Causes PopulationsWhat Causes Populations
to Change in Size?to Change in Size?
27. Rule of 70
A way to estimate the number of years it
takes for a certain variable to double.
The rule of 70 states that in order to
estimate the number of years for a
variable to double, take the number 70
and divide it by the growth rate of the
variable.
28. Time to take for a populationTime to take for a population
with a stable growth rate towith a stable growth rate to
double in sizedouble in size
Doubling Time (Doubling Time ( ttdd ) =) =
ttdd = 70= 70
rr
Doubling TimeDoubling Time
30. Growth Rate of a Pop.Growth Rate of a Pop.
rr = (= (b - db - d ) + () + (i - ei - e ))
b = .01b = .01 d = .005d = .005
i = .001i = .001 e = .01e = .01
Calculate growth rateCalculate growth rate
Calculate doubling timeCalculate doubling time
31. Proportion of a population toProportion of a population to
survive tosurvive to breeding agebreeding age
TypeType II==
survivalsurvival decreasesdecreases with agewith age
TypeType IIII ==
survivalsurvival doesn’t changedoesn’t change withwith
ageage
TypeType IIIIII ==
SurvivorshipSurvivorship
32.
33.
34. Questions to consider
1. What kind of survivorship do humans
have? Explain why you think this.
2. How does parental care affect the
survivorship curves?
3. What kind of curve for a redwood tree?
A sea turtle? A squirrel? Why?