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Online S&M (Strategy and Metrics)
Steve Latham
February 2009
My goals for today…
Provide some useful data points 
Prescribe a Roadmap for Success
Explain how to measure ROI from online marketing
Present a case study
If that doesnʼt work… 
     
...Iʼll try to impress you with graphics and animation




                                                                2
Consumer Behavior is Changing…
Web accounts for >30% of media time (1)
 We’re #2!
Online is becoming the medium of choice
    #1 medium among under 30 (2)

    15 million seniors online (growing fast)

50% of online time = “communitainment”
    Community, Interaction, Entertainment

    Enabled in part by Social Media 




(1) Credit Suisse, 2006
(2) Forrester 2006
                                                     3
Media Landscape is Changing…
In one word… fragmentation
     1966: 5 mediums dominated 

     2006: 30+ mediums


TV no longer offers same reach
    1977: 70% reach  3 commercials

    2007: 70% reach  184 commercials

    >50% of primetime TV is time-shifted


Print news circulation is declining

Radio losing share to Satellite + iPods

Direct Mail is losing effectiveness
                                             4
What This Means to Us (Marketers)
“Prime-Time” has been replaced by “My Time”
    Consumers choose when and how they engage


Web impacts all businesses
   While only 3% of retail sales are done online…
       Web influences 25% of offline sales(1)
       70% of searchers purchase offline 
       p.s. they spend more in-store

Customers have high expectations
   They expect to find “it” quickly and 

    easily…regardless of device 
Customers have more options
   Competitors are only clicks away




                                                      5
Threat or Opportunity?

While some are threatened…
   
…Others are excited!
Crisis = Danger + Opportunity(1)
Savvy marketers are embracing the
new paradigm
  Ford: 15% of $1bn budget to digital
  GM: 50% of $3bn budget to digital
  JC Penney: 70% of BTS budget

                                         (1) The two characters for Weiji or “Crisis” in
                                         Mandarin are often said to represent “danger”
                                         and “opportunity.” Chinese dispute the
                                         translation.
                                6
Online Media Mix Can Be Overwhelming
                                      E-Mail
                         Video                      Search
                                     House & 3rd
                       Display and                   Paid +
                                     Party email
   Display                                                           Social
                         Pre-roll                    Natural
 Rich, Flash and                                                 Networks, Blogs,
    Static Ads                                                    Photos, Videos




Content                Portals
                                                                       Search
                                                   Ad Networks



                   Social Networks
                                                                      Affiliate



                                          $$$                                       7
What To Do in Troubling Times?

Weak economy  shrinking budgets

Increases focus on ROI
    Leads, Transactions, Revenue 


Follow lead of savvy brands
   Shift budgets to digital

   Focus on proven methods
   Test, Test, Test




                                      8
So Where Do You Start?




    (everyone has a different opinion, here is mine)




                                                        9
Start With a Foundation
Optimize Site Usability and Effectiveness
        Good User Experience + Effective Branding + CTAs = $$$
    


Establish metrics and system for measuring results
        Focus on metrics that indicate intent to purchase 
    


Search Engine Marketing 
        Engage customers who are “in the market” 
    


Email marketing 
        Cultivate long term relationships
    




   Site Usability
       Metrics
        Search
         Email

                                                                  10
Whatʼs Next?


                                      ???



                           UGC
              Mobile 



           Social Media
          Display
              Video



   Site Usability
         Metrics
          Search
             Email


                                                                          11
..And if youʼre interested in Social Media




            What the #*&@%# ???




                                              12
How to Play in Social Media
Participate in online discussions 
     Start posting on other sites 
   

    Be transparent: http://flyertalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=786742 



Get on LinkedIn, Facebook and Twitter
     Low-cost way to reach and engage audiences
   

    Make sure you have resources to market it! 



Start a dialogue on your site
     Invite users to participate in discussion
   

    Market like crazy!

                                                                           13
Measuring ROI begins with Metrics


  So…what should we measure?




                                     14
Measure that which Indicates Value
Basic Metrics
          Engagement metrics
    Impressions 
          % Returning
    Clicks / Visits
       Frequency of visit

    Page views 
           Pages viewed per visit

                            Time on site 

                            Registrations 

                            Transactions


                        Web 2.0 Metrics
                           Posts / Participation

                           Viewing Videos or Photos 

                           Uploading content 

                           Sharing / Posting
                                                         15
Look Beyond the Last Click
     Decision cycles are not linear
 
        Users often make multiple before taking action
        Engagement entails multiple touch points

     Credit is usually attributed to the last click
 
        Design flaw of most analytics platforms
        Generally rewards Search, punishes Display and Email

         Case Studies:
         •  FedEx Kinko’s: 20% of “search” leads had display cookies
             •  After adjusting, reduced display CPL by 50%
         •  Zeno: average purchase took place after 3rd visit
             •  Search was used 50% of 2nd visits, 40% of 3rd visits 

     Takeaway: understand which touch points drive action
 
     (aka “Engagement Mapping”)
                                                                         16
Take a Holistic View
Some results are directly traceable… but many are not!
  Due to cookie deletion and multiple machines

       Case Studies:
       •  B2C retailer: 30% increase in home page traffic when display campaign
          launched (beyond click-throughs)
       •  Bank: 4 “home page” actions for every traceable 1 action


     Create a baseline 

 
     for comparison

     Agree upfront how to 

 
     attribute credit
                                                                                 17
A New Way To Index Performance
            12
Month
Google
Search
Index:
WIDGET

  3

                                                                    Understand the Context of your
2.5

                                                                    environment – use Google Trends
                                                                    as a proxy for Demand.
  2


1.5


  1

                                               
1.40


0.5


                                               
1.20


  0


                                               
1.00




                                               
0.80




                                               
0.60


       Show your RELATIVE
       performance by indexing your                                                quot;Google
Trends
‐
30
Day
Indexquot;

                                               
0.40


       results vs. Google Trends
                                                  quot;Online
Leads
‐
30
Day
Indexquot;

                                               
0.20




                                                 
‐




                                                          Jan
3
2009
   Jan
10
2009
    Jan
17
2009
    Jan
24
2009
   Jan
31
2009

                                                                                                                                  18
Communicate in a Way that Works



                         Communicate
Daily and Cumulative Leads
                        Results, not data

                        Executives LOVE
                          Dashboards!          Cost per Lead by Outlet
  Campaign Summary         # Leads by Outlet




                                                                         19
How Do We Value Engagement? 
Determine how Actions  Intent 
      Action
             Value
      Visits
             Indicates awareness
      Registrations
      Indicates consideration
      Store lookups
      Indicates preference
      Coupon Downloads
   Indicates action
      Tell A Friend
      Indicates loyalty 

Forecast how Intent  $$$
   Some % of those who show Intent will buy

Do the math and apply across each set of actions
Use common sense to normalize results
                                                     20
A Quick Example
Campaign assumptions: 
              Investment
                                                  $10,000
              Impressions ($5 cpm)
                                      2,000,000
              Visits (direct and indirect)
                                 10,000
              Registration (lead) rate
                                        3%
              Lead Close rate
                                                10%
              Revenue per customer
                                         $2,500

   Expected Results:
                                Another way to view it:
   • 300 leads
                                      • Value per visit: $7.50
   • 30 customers
                                   • Cost per visit: $1.00
   • $75k in revenue
   • $7.50 ROAS*
 *Direct ROI captures only part of the value. Brand value of 2mm impressions plus 9,700 visits
 that did not register is of equal if not greater value. 
                                       21
ROI Methodology


                                         Project Value          Normalize          Divide by
   Define             Assign Close
                                           for each             (average)           Cost or
   Metrics 
            Rates
                                            action
               Values 
        investment


Such as:
            Forecast:
        Project:
             Strengthen by:
    Net it out:

•  Visits
           •  What % will    •  Revenue, Margin    •  Eliminate       •  Return on
                        purchase?
        or                   outliers 
         Spend
                                          NPV
•  Registrants
                     •  Based on                             •  Separate by     •  Return on
                        actions
                                audience
          Investment
                                       •  Based on action
•  Friend invites
                                                                •  Customers
                                                                •  Prospects
                     •  Based on       •  Based on                              •  Based on
•  Coupon D/Ls
                        audiences
        audience
                                audience
                       •  Customers
     •  Customers
                            •  Customers
•  Store lookups
      •  Prospects
     •  Prospects
                            •  Prospects
                                                                                               22
Case Study
Client: Stage Stores 

Audiences: female teens
in underserved markets
                         Blog
Objective: drive in-store
purchases

Strategy: back-to-school
social networking site


            Comments
                                 23
Now What?
Once you have a Plan and a ROI model
  Document the assumptions

  Show the expected economic impact 

  Show your execs / client how it works 



Communicate your successes
  Internally

  Externally 



Continue to think about “whatʼs next”


                                             24
In Closing…
We all know the value is there…
 
…We need to focus on what works 
 
…we need to be able to show it 
Success requires… 
    Methodical approach

    Analytical rigor

    Creativity

    Common sense


Today Iʼve showed you one approach 
    Many others exist – feel free to share!


Letʼs stay in touch!
     Check out our blog http://blog.spurinteractive.com 

     Join me on Facebook and LinkedIn

     Email me steve@spurinteractive.com
                    25
About the Presenter
Steve Latham is the founder and CEO of Spur Interactive, a
 strategic interactive marketing agency. In this role, Steve
 has planned and managed successful campaigns for
 leading brands, including ConocoPhillips, FedEx Kinko's,
 Southwest Airlines, The Scooter Store, and Medical Hair
 Restoration.

Steve is an accomplished industry lecturer and an active
 member of the business and non-profit community. Steveʼs
 articles on interactive strategies have been published by
 MediaPost and iMedia Connection and he has been quoted
 in PR Week, Fortune and CNN.com.

Steve received an MBA from Harvard Business School and a
 BBA from the University of Oklahoma. You can find Steve
 on Facebook or email him at steve@spurinteractive.com .




                                                               26

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OMS Presentation: Online Strategy And Metrics - Steve Latham 20090205

  • 1. Online S&M (Strategy and Metrics) Steve Latham February 2009
  • 2. My goals for today… Provide some useful data points Prescribe a Roadmap for Success Explain how to measure ROI from online marketing Present a case study If that doesnʼt work… ...Iʼll try to impress you with graphics and animation 2
  • 3. Consumer Behavior is Changing… Web accounts for >30% of media time (1) We’re #2! Online is becoming the medium of choice   #1 medium among under 30 (2)   15 million seniors online (growing fast) 50% of online time = “communitainment”   Community, Interaction, Entertainment   Enabled in part by Social Media (1) Credit Suisse, 2006 (2) Forrester 2006 3
  • 4. Media Landscape is Changing… In one word… fragmentation   1966: 5 mediums dominated   2006: 30+ mediums TV no longer offers same reach   1977: 70% reach  3 commercials   2007: 70% reach  184 commercials   >50% of primetime TV is time-shifted Print news circulation is declining Radio losing share to Satellite + iPods Direct Mail is losing effectiveness 4
  • 5. What This Means to Us (Marketers) “Prime-Time” has been replaced by “My Time”   Consumers choose when and how they engage Web impacts all businesses   While only 3% of retail sales are done online…   Web influences 25% of offline sales(1)   70% of searchers purchase offline   p.s. they spend more in-store Customers have high expectations   They expect to find “it” quickly and 
 easily…regardless of device Customers have more options   Competitors are only clicks away 5
  • 6. Threat or Opportunity? While some are threatened… …Others are excited! Crisis = Danger + Opportunity(1) Savvy marketers are embracing the new paradigm Ford: 15% of $1bn budget to digital GM: 50% of $3bn budget to digital JC Penney: 70% of BTS budget (1) The two characters for Weiji or “Crisis” in Mandarin are often said to represent “danger” and “opportunity.” Chinese dispute the translation. 6
  • 7. Online Media Mix Can Be Overwhelming E-Mail Video Search House & 3rd Display and Paid + Party email Display Social Pre-roll Natural Rich, Flash and Networks, Blogs, Static Ads Photos, Videos Content Portals Search Ad Networks Social Networks Affiliate $$$ 7
  • 8. What To Do in Troubling Times? Weak economy  shrinking budgets Increases focus on ROI   Leads, Transactions, Revenue Follow lead of savvy brands   Shift budgets to digital   Focus on proven methods   Test, Test, Test 8
  • 9. So Where Do You Start? (everyone has a different opinion, here is mine) 9
  • 10. Start With a Foundation Optimize Site Usability and Effectiveness Good User Experience + Effective Branding + CTAs = $$$   Establish metrics and system for measuring results Focus on metrics that indicate intent to purchase   Search Engine Marketing Engage customers who are “in the market”   Email marketing Cultivate long term relationships   Site Usability Metrics Search Email 10
  • 11. Whatʼs Next? ??? UGC Mobile Social Media Display Video Site Usability Metrics Search Email 11
  • 12. ..And if youʼre interested in Social Media What the #*&@%# ??? 12
  • 13. How to Play in Social Media Participate in online discussions Start posting on other sites     Be transparent: http://flyertalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=786742 Get on LinkedIn, Facebook and Twitter Low-cost way to reach and engage audiences     Make sure you have resources to market it! Start a dialogue on your site Invite users to participate in discussion     Market like crazy! 13
  • 14. Measuring ROI begins with Metrics
 So…what should we measure? 14
  • 15. Measure that which Indicates Value Basic Metrics Engagement metrics   Impressions   % Returning   Clicks / Visits   Frequency of visit   Page views   Pages viewed per visit   Time on site   Registrations   Transactions Web 2.0 Metrics   Posts / Participation   Viewing Videos or Photos   Uploading content   Sharing / Posting 15
  • 16. Look Beyond the Last Click Decision cycles are not linear     Users often make multiple before taking action   Engagement entails multiple touch points Credit is usually attributed to the last click     Design flaw of most analytics platforms   Generally rewards Search, punishes Display and Email Case Studies: •  FedEx Kinko’s: 20% of “search” leads had display cookies •  After adjusting, reduced display CPL by 50% •  Zeno: average purchase took place after 3rd visit •  Search was used 50% of 2nd visits, 40% of 3rd visits Takeaway: understand which touch points drive action   (aka “Engagement Mapping”) 16
  • 17. Take a Holistic View Some results are directly traceable… but many are not!   Due to cookie deletion and multiple machines Case Studies: •  B2C retailer: 30% increase in home page traffic when display campaign launched (beyond click-throughs) •  Bank: 4 “home page” actions for every traceable 1 action Create a baseline 
   for comparison Agree upfront how to 
   attribute credit 17
  • 18. A New Way To Index Performance 12
Month
Google
Search
Index:
WIDGET
 3
 Understand the Context of your 2.5
 environment – use Google Trends as a proxy for Demand. 2
 1.5
 1
 
1.40

 0.5
 
1.20

 0
 
1.00

 
0.80

 
0.60

 Show your RELATIVE performance by indexing your quot;Google
Trends
‐
30
Day
Indexquot;
 
0.40

 results vs. Google Trends quot;Online
Leads
‐
30
Day
Indexquot;
 
0.20

 
‐



 Jan
3
2009
 Jan
10
2009
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2009
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24
2009
 Jan
31
2009
 18
  • 19. Communicate in a Way that Works Communicate Daily and Cumulative Leads Results, not data Executives LOVE Dashboards! Cost per Lead by Outlet Campaign Summary # Leads by Outlet 19
  • 20. How Do We Value Engagement? Determine how Actions  Intent Action Value Visits Indicates awareness Registrations Indicates consideration Store lookups Indicates preference Coupon Downloads Indicates action Tell A Friend Indicates loyalty Forecast how Intent  $$$  Some % of those who show Intent will buy Do the math and apply across each set of actions Use common sense to normalize results 20
  • 21. A Quick Example Campaign assumptions: Investment $10,000 Impressions ($5 cpm) 2,000,000 Visits (direct and indirect) 10,000 Registration (lead) rate 3% Lead Close rate 10% Revenue per customer $2,500 Expected Results: Another way to view it: • 300 leads • Value per visit: $7.50 • 30 customers • Cost per visit: $1.00 • $75k in revenue • $7.50 ROAS* *Direct ROI captures only part of the value. Brand value of 2mm impressions plus 9,700 visits that did not register is of equal if not greater value. 21
  • 22. ROI Methodology Project Value Normalize Divide by Define Assign Close for each (average) Cost or Metrics Rates action Values investment Such as: Forecast: Project: Strengthen by: Net it out: •  Visits •  What % will •  Revenue, Margin •  Eliminate •  Return on purchase? or outliers Spend NPV •  Registrants •  Based on •  Separate by •  Return on actions audience Investment •  Based on action •  Friend invites •  Customers •  Prospects •  Based on •  Based on •  Based on •  Coupon D/Ls audiences audience audience •  Customers •  Customers •  Customers •  Store lookups •  Prospects •  Prospects •  Prospects 22
  • 23. Case Study Client: Stage Stores Audiences: female teens in underserved markets Blog Objective: drive in-store purchases Strategy: back-to-school social networking site Comments 23
  • 24. Now What? Once you have a Plan and a ROI model   Document the assumptions   Show the expected economic impact   Show your execs / client how it works Communicate your successes   Internally   Externally Continue to think about “whatʼs next” 24
  • 25. In Closing… We all know the value is there… …We need to focus on what works …we need to be able to show it Success requires…   Methodical approach   Analytical rigor   Creativity   Common sense Today Iʼve showed you one approach   Many others exist – feel free to share! Letʼs stay in touch!   Check out our blog http://blog.spurinteractive.com   Join me on Facebook and LinkedIn   Email me steve@spurinteractive.com 25
  • 26. About the Presenter Steve Latham is the founder and CEO of Spur Interactive, a strategic interactive marketing agency. In this role, Steve has planned and managed successful campaigns for leading brands, including ConocoPhillips, FedEx Kinko's, Southwest Airlines, The Scooter Store, and Medical Hair Restoration. Steve is an accomplished industry lecturer and an active member of the business and non-profit community. Steveʼs articles on interactive strategies have been published by MediaPost and iMedia Connection and he has been quoted in PR Week, Fortune and CNN.com. Steve received an MBA from Harvard Business School and a BBA from the University of Oklahoma. You can find Steve on Facebook or email him at steve@spurinteractive.com . 26