Algorithmic Attribution presentation made by Steve Latham at SES Chicago in November 2013.

1. Mul$-­‐touch
A,ribu$on
A
Deeper
Dive
for
Digital
Marketers
Steve
Latham
Encore
Media
Metrics
Found
and
ceo
Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013
Chicago
•
November
4–7,
2013
•
#SESCHI
@SESConf

2. Chicago
|
November
4–7,
2013
|
#SESCHI
|
@SESConf
Agenda
q
q
q
q
Introducing Algorithmic Attribution
Review reports
Where we are today
Implications for marketers
(btw these slides are posted http://Attribution101.com )
Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013
@stevelatham

3. Chicago
|
November
4–7,
2013
|
#SESCHI
|
@SESConf
Defining “Attribution”
Two approaches to Attribution modeling:
q
Fixed: first, last, U-shaped, time decay, user-based
§ Pros: relatively easy, very low cost
§ Cons: subject to bias, treats all impressions and clicks the same
q
Algorithmic: using data science* to allocate fractional credit
§ Pros: more accurate insights è better results over time
§ Cons: cost and complexity
*algorithmic: using machine learning and statistical (probability-based) algorithms
to allocate fractional credit across assist impressions and clicks
Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013
@stevelatham

4. Chicago
|
November
4–7,
2013
|
#SESCHI
|
@SESConf
Conversion
Path
Analysis
Conversion)Path)Analysis
Engagement)Overview Sources)of)Visits)within)Conversion)Paths)========>
IMPs
All Converters (100%)
Visits
Display
Direct0Nav
Nat.0Search
Paid0Search
Referring
5.2
3.0
0.5
0.4
0.8
0.5
0.7
54.2%
45.8%
18.0%
14.0%
26.7%
18.0%
23.0%
Cluster 4 (45%)
1.5
2.8
0.8
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.8
Cluster 6 (21%)
4.7
3.8
0.2
0.6
0.8
1.5
0.6
0.2
1.8
0.3
0.2
Relative Contribution
Cluster 3 (15%) Conversion Path
6.1
Cluster 8 (13%) q
q
q
4.0
1.5
analysis shows:
Converters were 4.8
exposed 0.0 5.2 display ads
2.0
to
3.9
1.2
0.1
Converters visited 3.0 times before taking action
Paid and natural search comprise 45% of clicks in path
Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013
@stevelatham
1.3

5. Chicago
|
November
4–7,
2013
|
#SESCHI
|
@SESConf
Channel Attribution
The impact can be dramatic (last-click vs. attributable)
•
•
Display: 30-60% drop in CPA is typical
PPC: 10-25% drop in CPA is typical
Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013
@stevelatham

6. Chicago
|
November
4–7,
2013
|
#SESCHI
|
@SESConf
Keyword Attribution
•
•
Last-click rewards Low-funnel terms (brand)
Last-click penalizes Upper-funnel terms (endemic, category, etc.)
Keyword
acme5university
acme
acme5universities5new5york
online5courses
acme5learning
online5university
online5university5courses
acme5learning5new5york
adelaide5university
study5online
online5study
distance5education
online5learning
short5courses5online
online5university5new5york
university5courses
university
distance5education5victoria
charles5sturt5university
acme.edu.au
courses
online5uni
correspondence5courses
Copyrighted material may
www.acme.edu.au
online5learning5new5york
Clicks
not be
Converting
Clicks
14,435
2,146
906
831
802
320
278
265
208
196
180
170
163
158
146
105
99
95
84
79
77
75
72
shared.
72
71
©
Assist
Clicks
295
62
24
2
11
4
4
5
1
1
4
0
1
0
3
0
1
0
1
2
0
0
1
Encore
6
1
Actions
Influenced
696
147
31
7
13
2
3
6
0
4
3
2
1
1
2
3
5
1
2
3
4
2
4
Media
5
0
Spend
534
$5,517
112
$693
33
$364
5
$3,805
15
$373
4
$479
5
$881
7
$104
1
$162
2
$877
5
$739
1
$611
1
$446
0
$536
3
$212
1
$183
3
$249
0
$149
2
$153
3
$17
2
$166
1
$96
2
$276
Metrics 2013
7
$22
1
$122
Cost5Per
Click(CPC)
$0.38
$0.32
$0.40
$4.58
$0.46
$1.50
$3.17
$0.39
$0.78
$4.47
$4.11
$3.60
$2.74
$3.39
$1.45
$1.75
$2.51
$1.57
$1.82
$0.21
$2.16
$1.28
$3.84
$0.30
$1.71
CPA5(Last
Click)
$18.70
$11.17
$15.18
$1902.41
$33.89
$119.86
$220.22
$20.74
$161.96
$876.69
$184.84
$0.00
$445.97
$0.00
$70.72
$0.00
$248.65
$0.00
$153.28
$8.49
$0.00
$0.00
$276.20
$3.61
$121.70
CPA
(Attrib.)
$10.34
$6.16
$10.98
$839.67
$25.32
$112.50
$188.95
$15.41
$187.15
$355.56
$158.60
$764.08
$352.41
$1340.44
$62.47
$152.68
$86.77
$372.03
$92.03
$5.79
$103.82
$120.17
$112.02
$3.01
$140.63
CPA5(%
Change)
.45%
.45%
.28%
.56%
.25%
.6%
.14%
.26%
16%
.59%
.14%
NA
.21%
NA
.12%
NA
.65%
NA
.40%
.32%
NA
NA
.59%
.17%
16%
Rating
Role
Winner
Contributor
Winner
Contributor
Winner
Contributor
Laggard
Contributor
Winner
Contributor
Challenger Closer
Challenger Closer
Winner
Contributor
Challenger Closer
Laggard
Contributor
Challenger Closer
Laggard
Closer
Laggard
Closer
Laggard
Closer
Winner
Closer
Challenger Closer
Winner
Contributor
Laggard
Closer
Challenger Contributor
Winner
Contributor
Challenger Closer
Challenger Closer
Challenger Contributor
@stevelatham
Winner
Closer
Challenger Closer

7. Chicago
|
November
4–7,
2013
|
#SESCHI
|
@SESConf
Keyword Attribution
•
•
Measuring attributed Actions and CPA
Understanding role (contributor vs. closer)
Keyword
acme5university
acme
acme5universities5new5york
online5courses
acme5learning
online5university
online5university5courses
acme5learning5new5york
adelaide5university
study5online
online5study
distance5education
online5learning
short5courses5online
online5university5new5york
university5courses
university
distance5education5victoria
charles5sturt5university
acme.edu.au
courses
online5uni
correspondence5courses
Copyrighted material may
www.acme.edu.au
online5learning5new5york
Clicks
not be
Converting
Clicks
14,435
2,146
906
831
802
320
278
265
208
196
180
170
163
158
146
105
99
95
84
79
77
75
72
shared.
72
71
©
Assist
Clicks
295
62
24
2
11
4
4
5
1
1
4
0
1
0
3
0
1
0
1
2
0
0
1
Encore
6
1
Actions
Influenced
696
147
31
7
13
2
3
6
0
4
3
2
1
1
2
3
5
1
2
3
4
2
4
Media
5
0
Spend
534
$5,517
112
$693
33
$364
5
$3,805
15
$373
4
$479
5
$881
7
$104
1
$162
2
$877
5
$739
1
$611
1
$446
0
$536
3
$212
1
$183
3
$249
0
$149
2
$153
3
$17
2
$166
1
$96
2 2013
$276
Metrics
7
$22
1
$122
Cost5Per
Click(CPC)
$0.38
$0.32
$0.40
$4.58
$0.46
$1.50
$3.17
$0.39
$0.78
$4.47
$4.11
$3.60
$2.74
$3.39
$1.45
$1.75
$2.51
$1.57
$1.82
$0.21
$2.16
$1.28
$3.84
$0.30
$1.71
CPA5(Last
Click)
$18.70
$11.17
$15.18
$1902.41
$33.89
$119.86
$220.22
$20.74
$161.96
$876.69
$184.84
$0.00
$445.97
$0.00
$70.72
$0.00
$248.65
$0.00
$153.28
$8.49
$0.00
$0.00
$276.20
$3.61
$121.70
CPA
(Attrib.)
$10.34
$6.16
$10.98
$839.67
$25.32
$112.50
$188.95
$15.41
$187.15
$355.56
$158.60
$764.08
$352.41
$1340.44
$62.47
$152.68
$86.77
$372.03
$92.03
$5.79
$103.82
$120.17
$112.02
$3.01
$140.63
CPA5(%
Change)
.45%
.45%
.28%
.56%
.25%
.6%
.14%
.26%
16%
.59%
.14%
NA
.21%
NA
.12%
NA
.65%
NA
.40%
.32%
NA
NA
.59%
.17%
16%
Rating
Role
Winner
Contributor
Winner
Contributor
Winner
Contributor
Laggard
Contributor
Winner
Contributor
Challenger Closer
Challenger Closer
Winner
Contributor
Challenger Closer
Laggard
Contributor
Challenger Closer
Laggard
Closer
Laggard
Closer
Laggard
Closer
Winner
Closer
Challenger Closer
Winner
Contributor
Laggard
Closer
Challenger Contributor
Winner
Contributor
Challenger Closer
Challenger Closer
Challenger Contributor
@stevelatham
Winner
Closer
Challenger Closer

8. Chicago
|
November
4–7,
2013
|
#SESCHI
|
@SESConf
How Insights are Applied
Optimize budget across channels
Ac#ons'By'Channel'
Cost'per'Ac#on'
25,000
$70
Last Click
– Allocate based on attributed performance
– Inform more rational budget allocations
Attributed
19,732&
20,000
$60
16,228&&
12,217&&
2,657&
$20
4,452&&
$10
1,683&&
0
Direct Nav
Search
Referrals
Display
$0
Display
Takeaway:
By Re-allocating budget to Winners and capping Frequency, ROS should improve by at least 41%
Optimize within each channel
Predictive Analysis
Vendors
– Display
•
•
•
•
Spend
Leaders
$58,841
% of
Budget
39%
ROS
$9.03
Revenue
$531,100
Pause under-performing ads (Laggards)
38% $3.26 $188,638
Challengers
$57,876
Laggards
$35,670
23%
$1.34
$47,674
Re-allocate budget to Winners within each category
$152,386
100%
$5.04 $767,411
Reduce duplicate reach
Total
Reduce wasted frequency
Proforma
% Budget
Proforma
ROS
Proforma
Revenue
Impact
62%
$9.03
$853,059
$321,960
38%
$3.91
$226,365
$37,728
0%
n/a
$0
($47,674)
$7.08 $1,079,424
$312,013
100%
Relative Improvement
Incremental Revenue
41%
$312,013
– Search:
• Adjust bids and budget for top performers (attributed)
• Prioritize SEO based on highest ROI keywords
Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013
&$36&&
$40
$30
7,551&
4,640&
5,000
Last Click
$50
15,000
10,000
&$58&&
@stevelatham

9. Chicago
|
November
4–7,
2013
|
#SESCHI
|
@SESConf
Where We Are in the Adoption Curve
Using Geoffrey Moore’s model from Crossing the Chasm…
– 2008-2011 Innovators
– 2012-2013 Early Adopters
– 2014-2015 Early Majority
– 2015- ?
Late Majority
Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013
@stevelatham

10. Chicago
|
November
4–7,
2013
|
#SESCHI
|
@SESConf
Why This Matters to You
q
q
Attribution is (finally) a priority
§ Display media is growing share (largely from offline budget)
§ Relationship between Display and Search is very clear
§ Silos giving way to integrated planning and execution
How you respond will impact relationship with your clients
§ Transparency and openness will prevail
§ Be proactive, strategic and supportive
Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013
@stevelatham

11. Chicago
|
November
4–7,
2013
|
#SESCHI
|
@SESConf
Takeaways
1. It’s Time to Revisit how we Measure Media
– Take a holistic (and realistic) view
– Position yourself as a thought leader, not a laggard
2. Don t Fear Attribution. Embrace it!
– Search (done correctly) should have the lowest CPA
– Search works best as part of an integrated approach
3. Some organizations may need to Walk before they Run
– Start with fixed weight attribution models
– Migrate to algorithmic when ready to take the next step
Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013
@stevelatham

12. Chicago
|
November
4–7,
2013
|
#SESCHI
|
@SESConf
For More on Attribution
• POV: ”Which Approach is Best?” (Adotas): http://bit.ly/L1eLty
• Crossing the Chasm: the year of Attribution (Econsultancy):
http://bit.ly/CrossingAttChasm
• Demystifying Attribution (Adotas): http://bit.ly/L1eLty
• PhD Targeting & First Grade Metrics (iMedia): http://bit.ly/tyjrWk
• Five Forces Driving Attribution (MediaPost): http://bitly.com/iyOLpT
• Video: “Explaining Attribution” (via @creatorbase) http://bit.ly/nyakk6
Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013
@stevelatham

13. Chicago
|
November
4–7,
2013
|
#SESCHI
|
@SESConf
Contact Info
Encore Media Metrics
Steve Latham, Founder and CEO
1633 Broadway, 5th Floor
New York, NY 10019
W: 646.820.1006
http://EncoreMetrics.com
Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013
Steve@EncoreMetrics.com
@SteveLatham
@EncoreMetrics
http://Attribution101.com
@stevelatham

14. Chicago
|
November
4–7,
2013
|
#SESCHI
|
@SESConf
About the Presenter
Steve Latham is the founder and CEO of Encore Media Metrics
http://encoremetrics.com which helps marketers optimize spend through better
analytics. Serving leading brands and agencies around the globe, Encore s ondemand solution enables clients to achieve deeper insights into campaign
performance while lowering the cost and complexity of online measurement.
Steve is an accomplished speaker and thought leader, speaking frequently at
industry events including Ad-Tech, OMMA Global, Search Engine Strategies,
IAB Mixx, eMetrics Summit and others. Steve s articles have been published by
Adotas, MediaPost, Online Media Daily, iMedia Connection, Marketing News
and Bizjournals.com. Steve has been quoted in B2B Magazine, PR Week,
Fortune and CNN.com.
Steve received an MBA from Harvard Business School and a BBA from the
University of Oklahoma. You can read Steve s blog at http://Attribution101.com
http://twitter.com/stevelatham
www.linkedin.com/in/stevelatham
Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013
@stevelatham