PV application

1. 2007/1/17 1
全球太陽電池產業與市場應用趨勢
Development Trend of
PV Industry and Application
speaker : Harry

2. 2007/1/17 2
到了鯨油用完後
煤油才蓬勃發展
供需之間 ～
PV 之美麗與憂愁
到了石油用完後
PV 才蓬勃發展
Between Demand and Supply
～ The next step of PV
kerosene is popular after burning the Blubber out !
PV is popular after burning the Oil out ?
Before the presentation ,

3. 2007/1/17 3
Content
• Why do we talk about PV ?
• What is PV ?
• The supply of PV
• The demand of PV
• The vision of PV
• Conclusion

4. 2007/1/17 4
Well-to-Wheel energy efficiency
• Honda Civic  0.51 km/MJ
• VW Jetta Diesel  0.45 km/MJ
Source : Tesla Motors
1. 傳統能源終將
耗盡的危機
For live
2. 溫室效應的日
趨惡化
For survive
The CO2 Emissions per 1 TJ ︰
Type The productof CO2 ( t / TJ )
Coal 94.4～98.3
Oil
69.3～77.4
Gas 56.1
Why do we talk about PV ?
Type Oil Gas Coal Nuclear
Proven reserves /
Annual production ( years )
42 64 155 85
( Reasonable )
Source : COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES

5. 2007/1/17 5
A simple calculation about CO2
Emissions
CO2
Coking Coal 燃料煤 2.48 ( kg / kg )
LPG 液化石油氣 1.74 ( kg / L )
Residual Fuel Oil 燃料油 2.95 ( kg / L )
dieseloil 柴油 2.68 ( kg / L )
Gasoline 汽油 2.34 ( kg / L )
Electricity 電 0.66 ( kg / kwh)
• 約 6 億輛越野車碳的總排放量
• 約15 億輛小汽車碳的總排放量
Source :
ROC Environmental Protection Administration
Foundation of Taiwan Industry Service
Taipei
Tainan
~70kg
~130kg
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ( by fuel type )
每年碳的排放量
10億噸意味著什麼？

6. 2007/1/17 6
PV ( Photo-Voltaic) is …
PV Array
Consumptive
energy
Coal
Crude Oil
Gas
Solar
Energy
Battery
Inverter
Aerosphere
Efficiency
Loss
Nuclear
Efficiency
Loss

7. 2007/1/17 7
The supply of PV
wafer
Mine
Silica
stone
Metallic
silica
Trichlorosilane (HSiCl3)
poly-Si
sc-Si
slicing
slicingcutting
IC - chip
casting
CZ
Crystal
Puller
Refining
Purification
- Deposition
wafer
wafer
ingot
The process of making PV -1

8. 2007/1/17 8
Wafer
measuring
& testing
Etching Diffusion Deposition Metalization
Drying & Firing
Cell measuring
& testing
Package & installation
The process of making PV -2

9. 2007/1/17 9
Comparison of market share
in PV supply chain
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Si wafer cell module
>=20%
>=15%
>=10%
The rank of makers ( with high production capacity )
The ratio of
market share
Hemlock,27% REC-Scan
Wafer,20%
Sharp,11%
Sharp,20%
Q-Cells,10%Deutsche,16%
M.SETEK,10%
Tokuyama,15%
REC,15%
Wacker,15%
MEMC,10%
Silicon PV-wafer Cell Module
Source : Companies , PIDA

10. 2007/1/17 10
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
IC-demand 19,866 21,853 24,256 27,361 30,453 33,894
Si Solar-demand 18,558 21,483 25,879 39,215 48,745 61,788
2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f)
Silicon
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
supply 36,650 43,050 47,700 57,980 75,730 95,480
demand 38,424 43,336 50,135 66,576 79,198 95,682
2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f)
Source : Companies , PIDA
17.5% 10.8%
21.6%
30.6%
26.1%
Supply and demand of c-Si feedstock ( t )
27.8%
11.3%
12.8% 15.7% 32.8% 19.0% 20.8%

11. 2007/1/17 11
Silicon
Hemlock 26.6%
Tokuyama 15.7%
REC 15.4%
Wacker 15.7%
MEMC 10.1%
Mitsubishi 7.9%
Sumitomo 3.2% Others 5.3%
Source : PHOTON International , PIDA
Share of c-Si makers in 2006
Source : PHOTON International
MG-Si makers capacities ( ton )
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Apollon /
Ferroatlantica
200 200 - - -
Dowing
Corning
1,000 1,000 - - -
ELKEM 50 50 5,000 5,000 -
JFE 100 100 500 - 1,000
Scheuten 300 300 - 1,000 -
Solar Value - - 1,100 - -
Others - - - - 5,000
80%
Siemens process

12. 2007/1/17 12
REC ScanWafer
20.4%
Deutsche Solar
16.3%
M.SETEK 9.3%
BP Solar 6.7%
LDK 5.8%
Others 29.1%
Yingli 7.3%
Green Energy
5.1%
Wafer
Share of PV wafer makers in 2006
Source : PHOTON International , PIDA

13. 2007/1/17 13
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
wafer thickness 200 180 170 160 150
2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f)
Wafer thickness development (μm )
Source : EPIA
String/Ribbon
Sphelar®
Source : Kyosemi
Source : Evergreen, Schott
Wafer
sawing

14. 2007/1/17 14
Cell
Source : PHOTON International , PIDA
Source : PIDA
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
Si consumption 12.85 12.13 10.62 9.19 8.93 8.58
2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f)
Sharp 18.5%
Q-Cells 8.7%
others 37.3%
Kyocera 6.5%
Sanyo 5.6%
Mitsubishi
4.6%
RWE Schott
4.1%
Deutsche Cell
4.1%
Motech 5.2% Suntech 5.6%
Silicon consumption ( g / Wp )Share of PV cell makers in 2006
semiconductor-like process

15. 2007/1/17 15
others 58.67%
Sharp 11.12%
MSK* 4.26%
Kyocera 5.93%
Sanyo 3.71%
Mitsubishi 3.71%
Suntech 3.71%
深圳珈偉 2.97%
Solar Factory 2.97%
Solon 2.97%
Module
Share of PV module makers in 2006
Source : PHOTON International , PIDA
• Made in market
• Customized / standard

16. 2007/1/17 16
Module
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
supply 1,378 1,759 2,319 3,715 5,218 7,184
demand 1,296 1,640 1,929 2,735 3,916 5,386
2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f)
Supply and demand of c-Si PV module ( MW )
Source : PIDA
26.5% 17.6% 41.8% 43.2% 37.5%
33.3%
39.6%

17. 2007/1/17 17
635 794 992 1,240
1,550
2,100
290
363
453
566
708
885
345
509
750
314
439
593
746
1,104
1,634
108
159
234
35
114
209
20
30
45
113
226
500
230
340
504
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GERMANY JAPAN US SPAIN, ITALY, FRANCE, GREECE & Portugal CHINA ROW
Module
Share of worldwide PV Module ( MW , include thin-film cell )
Source : PIDA

18. 2007/1/17 18
Poly-Si Ingot/wafer cell module/inverter Ribbon
Sharp
Q-Cells
Kyocera
BP Solar
Sanyo
Mitsubishi
Motech
Suntech
Deutsche Cell
E-Ton
Evergreen
Ever-Q
REC-ScanWafer
MEMC
schott
Sunways AG
ErSol
REC
Deutsche
Solar AG
SolarWorld
AG
Shell Solar
Thin-film
Shell Solarchange over
Solibro GmbH
( CIGS )
Suntech
schott
Evergreen
Ever-Q
schott
BP Solar
tech
nano
Strategy of
top 10 cell makers
schott
Solar System
Group
Green Energy
MSK
M.SETEK
Solar Factory
BP Solar
HIT
Sharp ( a /μ Si
efficiency 8.5% )Sharp
Kyocera
Sanyo
Mitsubishi
Solibro AB,Sweden
2006.10 – 18.5%(muti-Si 15cm2)
2006.11 – 20% in 2007(with UNSW)
2006.11
Sunlight
Comtec
Kyocera
AtersaSunEdison
AE
EFG
wafer
AVANCIS(CIS)
Saint-Gobain
glass
Prime Solar
SAS
Hemlock
Suntech
Renesola
Motech
日本 IIS 材料
日本 IIS 材料

19. 2007/1/17 19
Poly-Si Ingot/wafer cell module/inverter Ribbon
Sharp
Q-Cells
Kyocera
BP Solar
Sanyo
Mitsubishi
Motech
Suntech
Deutsche Cell
E-Ton
Evergreen
Ever-Q
REC-ScanWafer
MEMC
schott
Sunways AG
ErSol
REC
Deutsche
Solar AG
SolarWorld
AG
Shell Solar
Thin-film
Shell Solarchange over
Solibro GmbH
( CIGS )
Suntech
schott
Evergreen
Ever-Q
schott
BP Solar
tech
nano
Strategy of
top 10 cell makers
schott
Solar System
Group
Green Energy
MSK
M.SETEK
Solar Factory
BP Solar
HIT
Sharp ( a /μ Si
efficiency 8.5% )Sharp
Kyocera
Sanyo
Mitsubishi
Solibro AB,Sweden
2006.10 – 18.5%(muti-Si 15cm2)
2006.11 – 20% in 2007(with UNSW)
2006.11
Sunlight
Comtec
Kyocera
AtersaSunEdison
AE
EFG
wafer
AVANCIS(CIS)
Saint-Gobain
glass
Prime Solar
SAS
Hemlock
Suntech
Renesola
Motech
日本 IIS 材料
日本 IIS 材料
vertical integration

20. 2007/1/17 20
System ~100%
module ~70%
cell ~50%
c-Si ~15%
Ingot ~6%，sawing ~3%
package ~10%
wafer ~30%
inverter ~10%，install ~15%
cost structure of PV system
PV system : 7USD/Wp
(module = 4.88 USD/Wp)
700cent / 20year
~ 32cent / KWH
etching, diffusion,...~5%
Taiwan residential electricity price (per kilowatt-hour ) is 2.51 NT ~ 8cents

21. 2007/1/17 21
Solar Electricity Prices
Mass production for cost reduction ( 1 ~ 1,5 € / W in 2012 )
Source : EPIA 1.2 ~ 1.8 USD
Source : solarbuzz , 2007/1

22. 2007/1/17 22
The price of PV module and Petroleum
Petroleum ( USD / basket )
50
55
60
65
70
05'12
06'01
06'02
06'03
06'04
06'05
06'06
06'07
06'08
06'09
06'10
06'11
06'12
Source : solarbuzz , 2007/1
Source : OPEC , 2007/1
PV module ( 125W, USD / Wp )
4.7
4.75
4.8
4.85
4.9
05'12
06'01
06'02
06'03
06'04
06'05
06'06
06'07
06'08
06'09
06'10
06'11
06'12
10%
1%

23. 2007/1/17 23
Eat enough
Eat good
Eat healthy
Identification
&
Individualism
Making consumers followers ,
we need to follow them first.
The demand of PV
Does it works ?
Is it useful ?
Do you like it ?
User Centered Design
Maker Centered Design
The demand of humanity
技術導向
使用者導向

24. 2007/1/17 24
The shipment and market of demand
2004 ~ 2010 PV demand forecast ( MW , include thin-film cell )
Demand 2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f)
Grid-connected 1200 1500 1875 2681 3834 5483
Off-grid 300 390 507 659 857 1114
Consumer 80 96 115 138 166 200
Total 1580 1986 2497 3478 4857 6797
PV application
Type Application
On grid Circuit of lighting, socket, air conditioner, waterworks, …
Off-grid communication facilities, warning signal/indicator, road/garden lamp , …
Emergency Lighting, communication and waterworks in emergency
Consumer power supply or charger of 3C product, handset, vehicle , …
Source : PIDA , 2006/12
Source : PIDA , 2006/12

25. 2007/1/17 25
• Power demand
• Mobile demand
• Handset
• Vehicle
• Housing demand
What kind of demand should
we need ?

26. 2007/1/17 26
Power demand
Energy type Recent cost Target cost
PV 20~40 4~10
Water 2~8 2
Wind 3~5 2~3
Geothermal 2~10 1~8
Comparison of renewable energy price ( cents / kwh )
Energy type country
Water ( large-scale ) Canada、Brazil、China、USA、Russia
Water ( small-scale ) China、AUS、India、New Zealand、Canada
Wind Germany、USA、Spain、Denmark、Japan
Geothermal Iceland、France、Philippines、Indonesia、MEX
The development of renewable energy ( by country )

27. 2007/1/17 27
Country Target
Australia 2010 : 9500 million kwh /year
Canada 3.5~15%
China 2020 : 60,000 ~ 120,000 million watt
Indian 2003~2012 :10%
Israel 2007 : 2%，2016:5%
Japan 2010 : 2% ( not include water and Geothermal power )
Korea 2010 : 7% ( include water power )
Norway 2010 : 700 million kwh ( not include wind and Geothermal power )
Singapore 2012 : 35 million kwh ( PV )
Switzerland 2010 : 3500 million kwh /year
Thailand 2011 : 8%
USA 5~30% ( in 18 states ) ，California  2017 : 20%( 3 GW )
UK 2010 : 10%
Netherlands 2010 : 12%
Germany 2010 : 12.5%
Sweden 2010 : 60%
Finland 2010 : 35%
France 2010 : 21%
Italy 2010 : 25%
Spain 2010 : 29%
Austria 2010 : 78%
The usage of renewable energy ( by country )

28. 2007/1/17 28
Power station -1
Stand-alone power station ( off grid )BIPV ( on grid )

29. 2007/1/17 29
A symbol of PV system application
Source ： Wal-Mart in McKinney, Texas
Wal-Mart BIPV system
Wal-Mart recognizes the potential value of energy efficiency with RMI's help.

30. 2007/1/17 30
photon kineticpotential
WindSUN H2O
electrochemistry
PV
electricity
Fuel generator
DC to AC
Inverter
Hybrid power station
Power station -2

31. 2007/1/17 31
tens of millions
useful
powerful
mobile demand
Shipments of
Mobile phone is ~ 900kk
Mp3 player is ~ 100kk
DSC is ~ 80kk
NB is ~ 60kk
Car is ~ 55kk
in 2006
beautiful
valuable
personal

32. 2007/1/17 32
flexible
Source：HEMVAN
Source：MSI ，PIDA，2006/11
portable
light-
weight
Handset-1
efficient
beautiful

33. 2007/1/17 33
iPod solar charger
Source ：Soldius
Mobile phone solar charger
Source ：Solio，iSun
Handset-2

34. 2007/1/17 34
Beyond the presentation ,
The promotion of PEPSI
” Exclusive music. We got it. You want it. ”

35. 2007/1/17 35
The acceptable price is …
$ 139, 1.5 kg, 6.3 Watts, 16.6 V, 0.325 A $89,115g,6.58V,320mA,Charging time:2-4 hrs
$99.95,156g,4~12V,0~1A,
Internal battery: 3.6V, 1600mAhLithium Ion
Soltronix AM/FM headphone radio
$54.45,
An internal antenna and bass boostbutton
ensures excellent sound quality.

36. 2007/1/17 36
Toyota Prius Hybrid Rooftop-mounted
flexible (conformal) photovoltaic (PV) panels
Source : Solatec
Vehicle-1
Source : Mazda , SAAB

37. 2007/1/17 37
solar powered airplane and boat
Source : sunseeker，transatlantic21
Vehicle-2
Taiwan
World NO.5

38. 2007/1/17 38
2006-11-15
瑞士太陽能船挑戰橫越大西洋的壯舉
「Sun21」，太陽船21號計劃於今年十二月起程，將是全球首艘完成穿越大西洋的
太陽能動力船。
「Sun21」雙體帆船主要引用太陽能動力科技航行全程 (見下圖)，計劃從西班牙南
部的塞維爾城 (Sevilla)啟航，經佛得角群島 (Cape verde islands)，美國的佛羅里達
，預定2007年春天到達美東的紐約，總航程約7000海哩。瑞士的Transatlantic21協
會( www.transatlantic21.ch ) 是此項創紀錄航行計劃的主持單位。
Sun21太陽能船
圖片來源：www.transatlantic21.ch
委託瑞士專業的太陽能船造船公司MW-Line SA建造的雙體帆船屬型號Aquabus
C60 catamarans ，由雙座人造纖維材料製成的船身軀體、鋁材支架及木製船頂蓋組
合而成，船身長14公尺，船寬6.6公尺，船重量約12公噸， 動力設備置有13×6.5平
方公尺面積，10000瓦特電壓的太陽能電池模板，船速約每小時6 knot (12 km/h)，
可容納5至6人遠程航行，短程載客可達20人。
傳統以汽油為動力的船隻不僅耗油、馬達效率低且不合乎環保，相較下以太陽能光
電電池發動的電動馬達效率可達80%至90%，耗損低且環保，雖然目前造船成本仍
居高不下，約90萬美金，但以太陽能動力發電造船將是未來重要的替代能源科技之
一。
http://www.itri.de/index.php?rubrik=archive&artikel=738&PHPSESSID=ed7f30db51725deac0003e91c180d882

39. 2007/1/17 39
Vehicle-3
Bluebird solar powered rickshaw
Source : Bluebird

40. 2007/1/17 40
Taxi in Bangkok , Thailand
— A cool car / toy .
Beyond the presentation ,

41. 2007/1/17 41
Bus Stop
Source : Carmanah，PIDA
Vehicle-4

42. 2007/1/17 42
Streetlamp in Bangkok , Thailand
— The perfect integration between lighting and sculpturing.
Beyond the presentation ,
Taiwan
> 30kk

43. 2007/1/17 43
housing demand
Source：ZEDfactory，EERE
Source :宮崎の森林・林業
10kw (~100 m2) PV
= 19,500 m2 forest
Source : NEDO 1:200

44. 2007/1/17 44
ZED Environmental strategy
Source：ZEDfactory，2006/10
housing -1

45. 2007/1/17 45
ZED current price list of Components and Packages
product specification Price(￡)
Components Mono-crystaline
PV Panel
80W(540mm x1200mm) 239
180W(800mm x 1600mm) 539
Grid-Tie solar
inverter
1500 W 449
Solar Thermal
array
18 x 58mm tubes 249
Ashwell Green-
Tec Pellet boiler
4-15 kW Thermal 3,000
Packages Solar Electric PV
Package
9 x 180W Mono-crystaline PV
panels or 20 x 80W Mono-
crystaline PV panels and 1 x
Grid-Tie solar inverter
5,000
Solar Thermal
Package
2 x 18 tube array, 300 litre twin
coil tank,solar controller,
expansion tank and pump station
2,250
Zero CarbonHot
Water Package
Solar Thermal Package above
and Ashwell Green-Tec Pellet
Boiler
5,000
housing -2
Source：ZEDfactory，2006/10

46. 2007/1/17 46
housing -3
Source ： Wal-Mart in McKinney, Texas
Biomass and Wind ( windmill ) usage in Wal-Mart ( RMI tech. )

47. 2007/1/17 47
housing -4
Bei Tou branch( EcologicalConservation ),
TaipeiPublic Library

48. 2007/1/17 48
The future Tech of AP-1
1. library flooring
2. walking flooring
3. wall paper
4. Projection screen …………
LED + PV Projector+ PV
Source：PIDA

49. 2007/1/17 49
PV system
in space
Source：NASA
The future Tech of AP-2

50. 2007/1/17 50
• 提昇國際競爭力 朝垂直整合前進
• Enhance competitiveness through vertical integration
• 提早進入待(未)開發市場
• Access to under developed market
• 藉由技術整合來擴大市場規模
• Enlarge market size through technical integration
• 提高PV的附加價值 尋找利基市場
• Raise additional value of PV and find the niche position
• 以「非環保」訴求來推銷PV產品
• Promote PV through ” Non – Environmental Issue”
Conclusion

51. 2007/1/17 51
Thank you