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2013: The Year In Review

by Schildershoven Finance
2013: The Year In Review

JANUARY	
  

1-10

21

FESTIVE ACTIVITIES

BAD HABITS
Republicans propose a short-term, 3
months increase of the U.S. debt ceiling.

By

14

22

PLATINUM DREAM
The U.S. Treasury Department and
the Federal Reserve oppose the idea
of minting platinum coins as a way to
avoid the U.S. debt crunch.

THE JAPANESE RECIPE
The Bank of Japan sets a 2% inflation
target and announced its asset
purchase program, which will start in
2014.

15

23

Schildershoven Finance

THE NEW MARK
Barack Obama has urged Congress to raise
the debt ceiling without any debates.

WELCOME TO FINANCIAL MARKETS!
The Europeans propose FFT, a tax on transactions
with stocks, bonds and derivatives. The initiative is
backed by Germany, France, Italy and 8 other
countries.
2013: The Year In Review

FEBRUARY	
  

By

JUST GIVE ME A REASON
The market has found the reason for correction
9

NO MERCY. NO REGRET.
Japan's new prime minister continues to maintain his
economic recovery policy.

PROS AND CONS OF THE STRONG EURO
ECB is likely to keep current monetary policy unchanged

21

NEXT PATIENT!
Eurozone Finance Ministers will start their
concilium today. It is expected that Cyprus will
be in the center of discussions.
11

TIME FOR MEDITATION
Japan's GDP fell in Q4 2012 by 0.1% compared to Q3 or
0.4% in annual terms.
14

WINDING UP?
According to the Fed January minutes, a number of
the Committee members called to slow down the
pace of the asset purchases
21

Schildershoven Finance

TRUCE IN THE CURRENCY WARS
Following the G-20 meeting in Moscow, the participating
countries declared their intention to refrain from competitive
currencies devaluation
18

THE HEAVENS TREMBLE
Moody’s downgrades the UK rating to Aa1

THE “ANTI-CRISIS” PARLIAMENT
Parliamentary elections in Italy start on the weekend

22

25
2013: The Year In Review

MARCH	
  
“ALMOST THERE”
The US Senate has rejected both the Democrats and the
Republicans proposals to replace the spending reduction
1

SECOND TIER
The president of Cyprus asks Athens to share EUR 2 bln
part of the Greek bank recapitalization package.

12

PLAN “B”
The Cypriots, after the failure of the negotiations with
Russia, present their "Plan B"

21

By
“READY FOR AUDIT”
The Cyprus government has approved an independent
audit of its banking system
5

CYPRUS “ANTI-CRISIS” PLAN
Eurozone agreed on USD 10 bln help for Cyprus after the
introduction of a one-off levy on the bank deposits
18

END OF THE CHAVEZ ERA
Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez dies at the age of
58, after 14 years in power
6

A DIFFICULT DECISION
The parliament of Cyprus voted against the levy on deposits

20

THE ISLAND OF LOCKED MONEY
Cyprus authorities impose capital restrictions

WHO’S NEXT?
Dijsselbloem said that Cyprus bail out must become a
template for other Eurozone banking sector bailouts.
26

Schildershoven Finance

28
2013: The Year In Review

APRIL	
  

By

2

3

UNCLEAR THREAT
North Korea is probably preparing
for new a nuclear test.
8

16

5

SLOVENIA MAY BE NEEDING THE ASSISTANCE
OECD called the Slovenian authorities to take some
steps to solve the country's banking system problems
10

ON SALE
Brent oil prices fell below USD 100 per barrel level

“SINK OR SWIM”
ECB and BoE left interest rates and
stimulus programs unchanged

WHO IS TO BLAME?
Those responsible for the crisis in Cyprus are
“wanted” in the country.

VICTIM OF THE CIRCUMSTANCES
Italian President Napolitano may resign to give his successor more
freedom in government formation negotiations

RUMORS
Rumors on the possible Germany downgrade are circulating
on the market.
18

Schildershoven Finance

THE MINOR REVISION
IMF will revise its US GDP growth forecast in 2013 to
1.7% from 2%.
12

TASTY!
BoJ Governor Kuroda affirms his plan to stimulate
Japanese economy and gains support by the G-20 finance
ministers.
22
2013: The Year In Review

MAY	
  
RALLY GOES ON
The DJIA has hits through 15 000 mark first time
ever
8

By
TIME TO HEAL OLD PAINS
US politicians have to re-start negotiations on US debt ceiling.
13

16

WHAT'S NEXT, BEN?
Fed Chairman Mr. Bernanke will deliver his economic
outlook to the U.S. Congress.
22

17

WHAT DID YOU MEAN, BEN?
Decision to scale back the USD85 billion bonds buying
program could come at one of the "next few meetings"
23

B2B (BACK TO THE ‘Bs’)
Fitch upgrades Greeceby two notches from CCC to B15

BLACK HAWK UP
Fed President John Williams
said Fed could begin to reduce QE this summer

NONSTOP RALLY
S&P 500 hits the new highs as the markets expect ongoing
monetary stimulus

Schildershoven Finance

“FINAL” WARNING
Moody’s Investors Service warned the U.S. rating may be cut in
2013 if the federal budget deal isn’t made.

21

NICE TO FIND THAT MISSED COIN
US 1Q 2013 GDP was revised from preliminary assessment of
2.5% to 2.4%
31
JUNE	
  

2013: The Year In Review

A	
  DANGEROUS	
  GAME	
  Schildershoven Finance
	
  
By

SO MANY MEN, SO MANY MINDS!
Fed members continue to announce their positions on
the current and the future Fed policy
4

6

THERAPY MAKES ITS EFFECT
Standard & Poor’s has changed its outlook on
US sovereign rating to stable from negative.
11

10

«WAR GAMES»
Russia disagrees with the other G-8 members
on the ways to stabilize the situation in Syria.

TV OFF
The 24-hour strike began in Greece after the government
shuts down Hellenic Broadcasting Corporation
13

THE GLOBAL SELL OFF
NOTHING’S WRONG!
Stock indexes slumped worldwide following the Fed announcement Fed members announced their view on the market reaction to the
to start tapering the QE program this year.
previously made Fed statement
21

EMPLOYEES REQUIRED!
US Nonfarm payrolls increased in May to 175 000

THE DANGEROUS GAME

24

18

THE TENSION EASES
Fed members keep trying to calm down the markets.

28
2013: The Year In Review

JULY	
  

By

FITCH BLESS AMERICA
Fitch Agency affirmed the U.S. credit rating at 'AAA,'

1

9

HIT THE BRAKES
Richmond Fed Manufacturing index unexpectedly
fall to minus 11 in July

ENOUGH!
BACK TO WORK!
Egyptian army commanders propose to US Employment Situation data published on
suspend the constitution and elect a
Friday was better than expected.
new president if the president refuses
to accept the army ultimatum
3

2

LONG LIVE GREECE
Eurogroup affirmed EUR 3bln aid package
to Greece in return for further reforms.

24

THE “DELAYED-ACTION” SPY
Former CIA officer Edward Snowden
filed a request for political asylum in Russia.

BEN THE ‘SAVIOR’
THE CBR FIRST LADY’S FIRST NIGHT
This is the first time the CB of Russia Board Bernanke in his testimony to the
meeting will be chaired by Elvira Nabiullina. Congress said the QE exit strategy
was not preset and would depend on
economic data.
15
18

LENDING SLEEPS
According to ECB report, lending to businesses and households in
the euro area fell 1.6%
26

Schildershoven Finance

8

MARKET PROTESTS
Russian stock indexes plunged after the Moscow
mayor candidate Navalny was sentenced to 5
years in prison
19

SHALL WE?
The two-days Fed meeting is starting today
30
2013: The Year In Review

AUGUST	
  

By

SHALL WE?. PART II
Today ECB and Mario Draghi will be the main
newsmakers.
1

NEW DAY, NEW COURSE
This week Fed representatives will
give comments on monetary policy.

THE NEW FAVORITE
2

6

LET’S DO IT!
BACK FROM THE RECESSION
FRB of Atlanta president Lockhart assumes,
France’s Finance Minister says that the country’s
that the decision to start reduction of QE program
economy went out of recession in 2Q2013.
may be taken at any of the next few meetings.
13

THE BOOK OF RIDDLES
Investors are awaiting the publication of last Fed
meeting minutes
20

GUILTY!
The U.S. President Barack Obama may
launch his military operation in Syria
26

8

THE SUPERHERO
German GDP increased by 0.7% in
2Q2013
15

14

Schildershoven Finance

FLIGHT TO QUALITY
Escalation of the Syrian conflict forces
the markets to race to defensive
investments
28

TRADE BOOSTS
China’s exports expanded by
5.1%, imports gained 10.9% in
July.

“ABENOMICS ” IN ACTION
Japan’s export increased in July 12.2%
YoY.
19

OH NO, NOT AGAIN!
US and UK senators wonder of the
findings of the UN Commission before
the military action in Syria will begin.
2013: The Year In Review

SEPTEMBER	
  
“INTELLIGENCE DOSSIER”
The French government published the
"intelligence dossier” in proof of the Syria
government forces chemical attack

3

By
THE G-20 RUSSIAN VENUE
The G-20 meeting begins today in St.
Petersburg with expected topics being the
world economy and the situation in Syria.

5

Schildershoven Finance

«THE DEATH LOOP»
UST'10 yield returned up to the levels
of 3.0% p.a.

THE COMPROMISE
Armed strikes against Syria could be
postponed if its government puts its
chemical weapons under international
control.

6

10
50 MEGABUCKS
Verizon places the largest corporate bond
ever - USD 49 billion.

12

SURPRISE!
Fed members decided to postpone the QE
tapering

SAY “NO” TO CHEMICAL ARMS
Assad signed Syria’s accession in the
Chemical Weapon Convention

13

NO TIME TO REST
The Christian-Democratic parties’ CDU /
CSU unit led by Angela Merkel won the
parliamentary elections in Germany

THE COFFEE BREAK
HITTING THE BRAKES
Market activity is sluggish ahead of the Fed's
Lawrence Summers withdrew his
candidacy to become the Federal Reserve decision on the current monetary policy.
Chairman.
16

YOU CAN’T STOP THE BEAT
William C. Dudley said in New York that “the
economy still needs the support of a very
accommodative monetary policy”.

18

RUN FORREST! RUN!
U.S. may start the 2014 fiscal year
with no budget approved.

19

23

24

30
2013: The Year In Review

OCTOBER	
  

By

THE EMBARRASSING FAILURE
Members of U.S. Congress haven’t been able to
overcome their frictions and agree even on the
interim 2014 budget.
1

YOU MUST BE KIDDING! … NO?
China expresses concern over the safety of their
investments in the U.S. assets
8

LET THE BATTLE BEGIN
Mr Obama and the House Republican leaders discuss the
proposal for a temporary increase in the debt ceiling
11

THE NEW TEAM LEADER
As expected, Mr. Obama puts Mrs Janet Yellen in charge of
the Fed.
10

THE SCHOLARS BET
Economists are expecting that the U.S. economy added
180,000 workers in September

22

NEW MEETING. NEW EXPECTATIONS
A two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting starts tomorrow.
28

Schildershoven Finance

"BIG BROTHER" IS WATCHING YOU
The German government digests the news that
the Merkel’s private phone may have been
monitored by the U.S. intelligence.
24

LET’S WAIT…
The Federal Reserve decided to stick to its USD 85 billion monthly bond purchases.
31
2013: The Year In Review

NOVEMBER	
  

By

NOW IT’S GONNA BE FASTER
ECB lowered its key interest rate by a quarter of a
point to 0.25% after the drop in inflation threatened
its mission to keep prices stable.

A NEW VESSEL
The Treasury is set to sell USD 10-15 billion of its first
floating-rate notes Jan. 29. The debt will have a 2-year
maturity and it will be the Treasury’s pilot issue of this
type of securities in 17 years.
8

7

WE SHALL GO THIS WAY
Fed representatives are scheduled to speak
today: William C. Dudley in New York, Eric
Rosengren in Abu Dhabi, Charles Plosser and
Narayan Kocherlakota in Philadelphia
18

LEND US THAT HELPFUL HAND
The nominee for the next Chairman of the Federal
Reserve, Mrs Janet Yellen, said the economy and labor
market were performing “far short of their potential”
and must improve before the Fed can begin reducing
monetary stimulus.
14

THE FALL OF THE ROMAN TITAN
Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio
Berlusconi was expelled from parliament.

THE NOVEMBER LULL
 

26

Schildershoven Finance

28
2013: The Year In Review

DECEMBER	
  
GETTING BETTER AND BETTER
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 57.3 in
November, the highest since April 2011.

By

10

6

MAYBE… ANYTHING ELSE?
Fed begins two-day meeting today

NEXT CUSTOMER, PLEASE!
U.S. Retail Sales rose 0.7% in October, signaling 4th quarter
GDP growth might not be as weak as expected.
13

17

THE KEY POINT.
Fed will cut bond buying program by USD 10bn to USD 75 bln in January 2014,

19

UP, TO THE SKY!
US GDP rose 3.6% in the 3rd quarter

PLACE YOUR BETS
According to ADP Employment Survey the US private sector in
November gained 215,000 jobs
5

NO MORE FEARS
Investors believethat any tapering-related pullback will be
only a temporary sell off

Schildershoven Finance

SETTING THE TREND?
U.S. GDP rose at its fastest pace in two
years by 4.1% annualized for the 3rd
quarter
23

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2013: The Year In Review

  • 1. 2013: The Year In Review by Schildershoven Finance
  • 2. 2013: The Year In Review JANUARY   1-10 21 FESTIVE ACTIVITIES BAD HABITS Republicans propose a short-term, 3 months increase of the U.S. debt ceiling. By 14 22 PLATINUM DREAM The U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve oppose the idea of minting platinum coins as a way to avoid the U.S. debt crunch. THE JAPANESE RECIPE The Bank of Japan sets a 2% inflation target and announced its asset purchase program, which will start in 2014. 15 23 Schildershoven Finance THE NEW MARK Barack Obama has urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling without any debates. WELCOME TO FINANCIAL MARKETS! The Europeans propose FFT, a tax on transactions with stocks, bonds and derivatives. The initiative is backed by Germany, France, Italy and 8 other countries.
  • 3. 2013: The Year In Review FEBRUARY   By JUST GIVE ME A REASON The market has found the reason for correction 9 NO MERCY. NO REGRET. Japan's new prime minister continues to maintain his economic recovery policy. PROS AND CONS OF THE STRONG EURO ECB is likely to keep current monetary policy unchanged 21 NEXT PATIENT! Eurozone Finance Ministers will start their concilium today. It is expected that Cyprus will be in the center of discussions. 11 TIME FOR MEDITATION Japan's GDP fell in Q4 2012 by 0.1% compared to Q3 or 0.4% in annual terms. 14 WINDING UP? According to the Fed January minutes, a number of the Committee members called to slow down the pace of the asset purchases 21 Schildershoven Finance TRUCE IN THE CURRENCY WARS Following the G-20 meeting in Moscow, the participating countries declared their intention to refrain from competitive currencies devaluation 18 THE HEAVENS TREMBLE Moody’s downgrades the UK rating to Aa1 THE “ANTI-CRISIS” PARLIAMENT Parliamentary elections in Italy start on the weekend 22 25
  • 4. 2013: The Year In Review MARCH   “ALMOST THERE” The US Senate has rejected both the Democrats and the Republicans proposals to replace the spending reduction 1 SECOND TIER The president of Cyprus asks Athens to share EUR 2 bln part of the Greek bank recapitalization package. 12 PLAN “B” The Cypriots, after the failure of the negotiations with Russia, present their "Plan B" 21 By “READY FOR AUDIT” The Cyprus government has approved an independent audit of its banking system 5 CYPRUS “ANTI-CRISIS” PLAN Eurozone agreed on USD 10 bln help for Cyprus after the introduction of a one-off levy on the bank deposits 18 END OF THE CHAVEZ ERA Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez dies at the age of 58, after 14 years in power 6 A DIFFICULT DECISION The parliament of Cyprus voted against the levy on deposits 20 THE ISLAND OF LOCKED MONEY Cyprus authorities impose capital restrictions WHO’S NEXT? Dijsselbloem said that Cyprus bail out must become a template for other Eurozone banking sector bailouts. 26 Schildershoven Finance 28
  • 5. 2013: The Year In Review APRIL   By 2 3 UNCLEAR THREAT North Korea is probably preparing for new a nuclear test. 8 16 5 SLOVENIA MAY BE NEEDING THE ASSISTANCE OECD called the Slovenian authorities to take some steps to solve the country's banking system problems 10 ON SALE Brent oil prices fell below USD 100 per barrel level “SINK OR SWIM” ECB and BoE left interest rates and stimulus programs unchanged WHO IS TO BLAME? Those responsible for the crisis in Cyprus are “wanted” in the country. VICTIM OF THE CIRCUMSTANCES Italian President Napolitano may resign to give his successor more freedom in government formation negotiations RUMORS Rumors on the possible Germany downgrade are circulating on the market. 18 Schildershoven Finance THE MINOR REVISION IMF will revise its US GDP growth forecast in 2013 to 1.7% from 2%. 12 TASTY! BoJ Governor Kuroda affirms his plan to stimulate Japanese economy and gains support by the G-20 finance ministers. 22
  • 6. 2013: The Year In Review MAY   RALLY GOES ON The DJIA has hits through 15 000 mark first time ever 8 By TIME TO HEAL OLD PAINS US politicians have to re-start negotiations on US debt ceiling. 13 16 WHAT'S NEXT, BEN? Fed Chairman Mr. Bernanke will deliver his economic outlook to the U.S. Congress. 22 17 WHAT DID YOU MEAN, BEN? Decision to scale back the USD85 billion bonds buying program could come at one of the "next few meetings" 23 B2B (BACK TO THE ‘Bs’) Fitch upgrades Greeceby two notches from CCC to B15 BLACK HAWK UP Fed President John Williams said Fed could begin to reduce QE this summer NONSTOP RALLY S&P 500 hits the new highs as the markets expect ongoing monetary stimulus Schildershoven Finance “FINAL” WARNING Moody’s Investors Service warned the U.S. rating may be cut in 2013 if the federal budget deal isn’t made. 21 NICE TO FIND THAT MISSED COIN US 1Q 2013 GDP was revised from preliminary assessment of 2.5% to 2.4% 31
  • 7. JUNE   2013: The Year In Review A  DANGEROUS  GAME  Schildershoven Finance   By SO MANY MEN, SO MANY MINDS! Fed members continue to announce their positions on the current and the future Fed policy 4 6 THERAPY MAKES ITS EFFECT Standard & Poor’s has changed its outlook on US sovereign rating to stable from negative. 11 10 «WAR GAMES» Russia disagrees with the other G-8 members on the ways to stabilize the situation in Syria. TV OFF The 24-hour strike began in Greece after the government shuts down Hellenic Broadcasting Corporation 13 THE GLOBAL SELL OFF NOTHING’S WRONG! Stock indexes slumped worldwide following the Fed announcement Fed members announced their view on the market reaction to the to start tapering the QE program this year. previously made Fed statement 21 EMPLOYEES REQUIRED! US Nonfarm payrolls increased in May to 175 000 THE DANGEROUS GAME 24 18 THE TENSION EASES Fed members keep trying to calm down the markets. 28
  • 8. 2013: The Year In Review JULY   By FITCH BLESS AMERICA Fitch Agency affirmed the U.S. credit rating at 'AAA,' 1 9 HIT THE BRAKES Richmond Fed Manufacturing index unexpectedly fall to minus 11 in July ENOUGH! BACK TO WORK! Egyptian army commanders propose to US Employment Situation data published on suspend the constitution and elect a Friday was better than expected. new president if the president refuses to accept the army ultimatum 3 2 LONG LIVE GREECE Eurogroup affirmed EUR 3bln aid package to Greece in return for further reforms. 24 THE “DELAYED-ACTION” SPY Former CIA officer Edward Snowden filed a request for political asylum in Russia. BEN THE ‘SAVIOR’ THE CBR FIRST LADY’S FIRST NIGHT This is the first time the CB of Russia Board Bernanke in his testimony to the meeting will be chaired by Elvira Nabiullina. Congress said the QE exit strategy was not preset and would depend on economic data. 15 18 LENDING SLEEPS According to ECB report, lending to businesses and households in the euro area fell 1.6% 26 Schildershoven Finance 8 MARKET PROTESTS Russian stock indexes plunged after the Moscow mayor candidate Navalny was sentenced to 5 years in prison 19 SHALL WE? The two-days Fed meeting is starting today 30
  • 9. 2013: The Year In Review AUGUST   By SHALL WE?. PART II Today ECB and Mario Draghi will be the main newsmakers. 1 NEW DAY, NEW COURSE This week Fed representatives will give comments on monetary policy. THE NEW FAVORITE 2 6 LET’S DO IT! BACK FROM THE RECESSION FRB of Atlanta president Lockhart assumes, France’s Finance Minister says that the country’s that the decision to start reduction of QE program economy went out of recession in 2Q2013. may be taken at any of the next few meetings. 13 THE BOOK OF RIDDLES Investors are awaiting the publication of last Fed meeting minutes 20 GUILTY! The U.S. President Barack Obama may launch his military operation in Syria 26 8 THE SUPERHERO German GDP increased by 0.7% in 2Q2013 15 14 Schildershoven Finance FLIGHT TO QUALITY Escalation of the Syrian conflict forces the markets to race to defensive investments 28 TRADE BOOSTS China’s exports expanded by 5.1%, imports gained 10.9% in July. “ABENOMICS ” IN ACTION Japan’s export increased in July 12.2% YoY. 19 OH NO, NOT AGAIN! US and UK senators wonder of the findings of the UN Commission before the military action in Syria will begin.
  • 10. 2013: The Year In Review SEPTEMBER   “INTELLIGENCE DOSSIER” The French government published the "intelligence dossier” in proof of the Syria government forces chemical attack 3 By THE G-20 RUSSIAN VENUE The G-20 meeting begins today in St. Petersburg with expected topics being the world economy and the situation in Syria. 5 Schildershoven Finance «THE DEATH LOOP» UST'10 yield returned up to the levels of 3.0% p.a. THE COMPROMISE Armed strikes against Syria could be postponed if its government puts its chemical weapons under international control. 6 10 50 MEGABUCKS Verizon places the largest corporate bond ever - USD 49 billion. 12 SURPRISE! Fed members decided to postpone the QE tapering SAY “NO” TO CHEMICAL ARMS Assad signed Syria’s accession in the Chemical Weapon Convention 13 NO TIME TO REST The Christian-Democratic parties’ CDU / CSU unit led by Angela Merkel won the parliamentary elections in Germany THE COFFEE BREAK HITTING THE BRAKES Market activity is sluggish ahead of the Fed's Lawrence Summers withdrew his candidacy to become the Federal Reserve decision on the current monetary policy. Chairman. 16 YOU CAN’T STOP THE BEAT William C. Dudley said in New York that “the economy still needs the support of a very accommodative monetary policy”. 18 RUN FORREST! RUN! U.S. may start the 2014 fiscal year with no budget approved. 19 23 24 30
  • 11. 2013: The Year In Review OCTOBER   By THE EMBARRASSING FAILURE Members of U.S. Congress haven’t been able to overcome their frictions and agree even on the interim 2014 budget. 1 YOU MUST BE KIDDING! … NO? China expresses concern over the safety of their investments in the U.S. assets 8 LET THE BATTLE BEGIN Mr Obama and the House Republican leaders discuss the proposal for a temporary increase in the debt ceiling 11 THE NEW TEAM LEADER As expected, Mr. Obama puts Mrs Janet Yellen in charge of the Fed. 10 THE SCHOLARS BET Economists are expecting that the U.S. economy added 180,000 workers in September 22 NEW MEETING. NEW EXPECTATIONS A two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting starts tomorrow. 28 Schildershoven Finance "BIG BROTHER" IS WATCHING YOU The German government digests the news that the Merkel’s private phone may have been monitored by the U.S. intelligence. 24 LET’S WAIT… The Federal Reserve decided to stick to its USD 85 billion monthly bond purchases. 31
  • 12. 2013: The Year In Review NOVEMBER   By NOW IT’S GONNA BE FASTER ECB lowered its key interest rate by a quarter of a point to 0.25% after the drop in inflation threatened its mission to keep prices stable. A NEW VESSEL The Treasury is set to sell USD 10-15 billion of its first floating-rate notes Jan. 29. The debt will have a 2-year maturity and it will be the Treasury’s pilot issue of this type of securities in 17 years. 8 7 WE SHALL GO THIS WAY Fed representatives are scheduled to speak today: William C. Dudley in New York, Eric Rosengren in Abu Dhabi, Charles Plosser and Narayan Kocherlakota in Philadelphia 18 LEND US THAT HELPFUL HAND The nominee for the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Mrs Janet Yellen, said the economy and labor market were performing “far short of their potential” and must improve before the Fed can begin reducing monetary stimulus. 14 THE FALL OF THE ROMAN TITAN Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was expelled from parliament. THE NOVEMBER LULL   26 Schildershoven Finance 28
  • 13. 2013: The Year In Review DECEMBER   GETTING BETTER AND BETTER U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 57.3 in November, the highest since April 2011. By 10 6 MAYBE… ANYTHING ELSE? Fed begins two-day meeting today NEXT CUSTOMER, PLEASE! U.S. Retail Sales rose 0.7% in October, signaling 4th quarter GDP growth might not be as weak as expected. 13 17 THE KEY POINT. Fed will cut bond buying program by USD 10bn to USD 75 bln in January 2014, 19 UP, TO THE SKY! US GDP rose 3.6% in the 3rd quarter PLACE YOUR BETS According to ADP Employment Survey the US private sector in November gained 215,000 jobs 5 NO MORE FEARS Investors believethat any tapering-related pullback will be only a temporary sell off Schildershoven Finance SETTING THE TREND? U.S. GDP rose at its fastest pace in two years by 4.1% annualized for the 3rd quarter 23