AACIMP 2009 Summer School lecture by Alexander Makarenko. "Mathematical Modelling of Social Systems" course. 5th hour. Part 2.

1. Modeling of future
geopolitical world
situations

2. Prognosing of future geopolitical relations
One of the main problems of Ukraine development is a stabilty as international as internal
problems. One of the main factors of stability support is prognosing on different future scenarios.
Such scenarios may serve as main background for decision making. One of the aproaches in
prognosing is mthematical modeling by computers. Our group have some achivements in
geopolitical prognoses for the whole world and espacially for Europe.
What future world order may be ?
What will be the future centers of power in the world ?
Is there the prospects for bipolar structure in future Europe ?
What is the role of Ukraine in the World ?

3. Computer program “GEO” can help to sole such problems.
Algorithm was made with programming language Pascal in enviroment Delphi.
This can work under OS Windows 95/98/NT/2000. This programm may be install
into the PC of medium class from Pentium 100/32M and higher. Input and output
data allows to apply recent geo informational sistems such as MapInfo. This allow
to visualise results in the map forms.

4. The World System
The World System

5. The European System
The European System
ICELAND
ICELAND NORWAY FINLAND
FINLAND
NORWAY
SWEDEN
SWEDEN
ESTONIA
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LATVIA
DENMARK
DENMARK
LITHUANIA
LITHUANIA
IRELAND
IRELAND BELARUS
BELARUS
NETHERLANDS
NETHERLANDS POLAND
POLAND
BELGIUM
BELGIUM
CZECH REPUBLIC
CZECH REPUBLIC
UKRAINE
UKRAINE
AUSTRIA
AUSTRIA HUNGARY
FRANCE HUNGARY
FRANCE
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
ANDORRA
ANDORRA ITALY
ITALY GEORGIA
GEORGIA
ALBANIA
ALBANIA
ARMENIA
ARMENIA
PORTUGAL
PORTUGAL GREECE
GREECE
TURKEY
TURKEY
GIBRALTAR
GIBRALTAR MALTA
MALTA
CYPRUS
CYPRUS
TUNISIA
TUNISIA LEBANON
LEBANON

6. The Characteristics Of States
The Characteristics Of States

7. 1914 Situation
1914 Situation
Greenland
Greenland
Iceland
Iceland Finland
Finland
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Canada
Canada Denmark
Denmark
Ireland
Ireland Belarus
Belarus
Austria Ukraine
Austria Ukraine Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan Mongolia
Mongolia
Andorra Albania
Andorra Albania Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan
Armenia
Armenia
United States Azores (port.)
Azores (port.)
United States Gibraltar
Gibraltar Malta
Malta Cyprus
Cyprus China
China Japan
Japan
Bermuda Iraq
Iraq Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Bermuda
Algeria
Algeria Nepal
Nepal
Bahamas Egypt
Egypt Bahrain
Bahrain
Mexico
Mexico Bahamas Bangladesh Hong Kong
Bangladesh Hong Kong
Oman
Oman
Belize Anguilla
Anguilla Cape Verde
Cape Verde Mali Niger
Mali Niger
Belize Chad
Chad
Aruba (neth.)
Aruba (neth.) Sudan
Sudan Cambodia
Cambodia Guam
Guam
Djibouti
Djibouti
Guinea Benin
Guinea Benin
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka
Colombia Suriname Somalia
Somalia Brunei Darussalam
Brunei Darussalam
Colombia Suriname Maldives
Maldives
Congo
Congo
Ecuador
Ecuador Burundi
Burundi
Seychelles
Seychelles Papua New Guin
Papua New Gui
Peru
Peru
Brazil
Brazil Angola
Angola Comoros
Comoros
Bolivia
Bolivia
Madagascar
Madagascar
Paraguay Botswana
Botswana
Paraguay Australia
Australia
Lesotho
Lesotho
Uruguay
Uruguay
Argentina
Argentina
Falkland Islands
Falkland Islands

8. 1939 Situation
1939 Situation
Greenland
Greenland
Iceland
Iceland Finland
Finland
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Canada
Canada Denmark
Denmark
Ireland
Ireland Belarus
Belarus
Austria Ukraine
Austria Ukraine Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan Mongolia
Mongolia
Andorra Albania
Andorra Albania Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan
Armenia
Armenia
United States Azores (port.)
Azores (port.)
United States Gibraltar
Gibraltar Malta
Malta Cyprus
Cyprus China
China Japan
Japan
Bermuda Iraq
Iraq Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Bermuda
Algeria
Algeria Nepal
Nepal
Bahamas Egypt
Egypt Bahrain
Bahrain
Mexico
Mexico Bahamas Bangladesh Hong Kong
Bangladesh Hong Kong
Oman
Oman
Belize Anguilla
Anguilla Cape Verde
Cape Verde Mali Niger
Mali Niger
Belize Chad
Chad
Aruba (neth.)
Aruba (neth.) Sudan
Sudan Cambodia
Cambodia Guam
Guam
Guinea Benin
Guinea Benin Djibouti
Djibouti
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka
Colombia Suriname Somalia
Somalia Brunei Darussalam
Brunei Darussalam
Colombia Suriname Maldives
Maldives
Congo
Congo
Ecuador
Ecuador Burundi
Burundi
Seychelles
Seychelles Papua New Gu
Papua New Gu
G
Peru
Peru
Brazil
Brazil Angola
Angola Comoros
Comoros
Bolivia
Bolivia
Madagascar
Madagascar
Paraguay Botswana
Botswana
Paraguay Australia
Australia
Lesotho
Lesotho
Uruguay
Uruguay
Argentina
Argentina
Falkland Islands
Falkland Islands

9. 1990 Situation
1990 Situation
Greenland
Greenland
Iceland
Iceland Finland
Finland
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Federation
Canada
Canada Denmark
Denmark
Ireland
Ireland
Ireland Belarus
Belarus
Austria Ukraine
Austria Ukraine
Austria Ukraine Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan Mongolia
Mongolia
Mongolia
Andorra
Andorra Albania
Albania Kyrgyzstan
Armenia
Armenia
Armenia Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan
United States Azores (port.)
Azores (port.)
United States
United Gibraltar
Gibraltar
Gibraltar Malta
Malta
Malta Cyprus
Cyprus
Cyprus China
China Japan
Japan
Japan
Bermuda Iraq
Iraq Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Bermuda
Bermuda
Algeria
Algeria Nepal
Nepal
Egypt
Egypt
Egypt Bahrain
Bahrain
Mexico Bahamas
Bahamas
Bahamas Bangladesh
Bangladesh
Bangladesh
Mexico Hong Kong
Hong Kong
Oman
Oman
Belize Anguilla
Anguilla Cape Verde Mali
Mali
Mali Niger
Niger
Belize Cape Verde Chad
Chad Yemen
Yemen
Yemen
Aruba (neth.)
Aruba (neth.)
(neth.) Sudan
Sudan Cambodia
Cambodia Guam
Guam
Guam
Guinea Benin Djibouti
Djibouti
Guinea Benin Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka
Colombia Suriname Somalia
Somalia Brunei Darussalam
Brunei Darussalam
Darussalam
Colombia Suriname
Colombia Suriname
Uganda
Uganda Maldives
Maldives
Congo
Congo Indonesia
Indonesia
Ecuador
Ecuador Burundi
Burundi Seychelles
Seychelles
Seychelles
Peru
Peru
Brazil
Brazil Angola
Angola Comoros
Comoros
Bolivia
Bolivia
Madagascar
Madagascar
Madagascar
Paraguay
Paraguay Botswana
Botswana
Australia
Australia
Lesotho
Lesotho
Lesotho
Uruguay
Uruguay
Uruguay
Argentina
Argentina
Falkland Islands
Falkland Islands

10. 1994 Result
1994 Result

11. Virtual Result
Virtual Result
Greenland
Greenland
Iceland
Iceland Finland
Finland
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Canada
Canada Denmark
DenmarkBelarus
Belarus
Austria Ukraine
Austria Ukraine Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan Mongolia
Mongolia
Andorra Albania
Andorra Albania Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan
Azores (port.)
Azores (port.) Armenia
Armenia
United States
United States Gibraltar Malta
Gibraltar Malta China
China Japan
Japan
Cyprus
Cyprus Afghanistan
Bermuda
Bermuda Afghanistan
Algeria
Algeria Nepal
Nepal
Egypt
Egypt Bahrain
Bahrain
Mexico Bahamas
Bahamas Bangladesh Hong Kong
Bangladesh Hong Kong
Mexico
Oman
Oman
Belize Anguilla
Anguilla Cape Verde Mali Niger
Mali Niger
Belize Cape Verde Chad
Chad
Aruba (neth.)
Aruba (neth.) Cambodia
Cambodia Guam
Guam
Guinea Benin
Guinea Benin Djibouti
Djibouti
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka Micronesia, Fed St
Micronesia, Fed St
Colombia
Colombia Somalia
Somalia Brunei Darussalam
Brunei Darussalam
Maldives
Maldives
Congo
Congo
Ecuador
Ecuador Burundi
Burundi Seychelles
Seychelles Papua New Guinea
Papua New Guinea
Peru
Peru
Brazil
Brazil Angola
Angola Comoros
Comoros
Bolivia
Bolivia
Madagascar
Madagascar
Paraguay
Paraguay Botswana
Botswana
Australia
Australia
Lesotho
Lesotho
Argentina
Argentina
Falkland Islands
Falkland Islands