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MONETARY POLICY 2011-12
 Repo rate hiked by 50 bps from 6.75% to 7.25%
 Reverse Repo rate hiked by 50 bps from 5.75% to
  6.25% (dependent
 variable on the Repo rate – 100 bps below the Repo
  rate)
 CRR kept unchanged at 6%
 SLR kept unchanged at 24%
 GDP growth projection for FY 2011-12 placed at
  around 8% (in the range of 7.4% and 8.5%)
CONT-
 FY 2011-12 March end WPI inflation baseline projection
  placed at 6% with an upward bias
 M3 growth projected at 16%, deposit growth at 17% and
  non-food credit growth at 19%
 Bank rate kept unchanged at 6%.
 MSF introduced at 1% above the Repo rate (8.25%)
 LAF corridor width set at 200 bps (with base at reverse
  repo – 6.25% & ceiling at MSF – 8.25%)
 MP 2011-12.docx
FIRST QUARTERLY REVIEW
                    Increase / (Decrease)   At present
                    since March 2010

Repo Rate           .5%
                                            8%.
Reverse Repo Rate   .5%
                                             7%
Cash Reserve Ratio Unchanged                6%.
Statutory Liquidity Unchanged               24%
Ratio

Bank Rate           Unchanged
                                            6%
KEY FEATURES
 GDP growth projection for FY 2011-12 kept unchanged at
  around 8%
 Inflation projection for March end FY 2011-12 revised
  upwards to 7% from 6%
SECOND QUARTERLY REVIEW
                      Increase / (Decrease)   At present


Repo Rate             .25%
                                              8.5%
Reverse Repo Rate     .25%.
                                              7.5%
Cash Reserve Ratio    Unchanged
                                              6%
Statutory Liquidity   Unchanged
                                              24%
Ratio
Bank Rate             Unchanged
                                              6%
KEY FEATURES
 RBI lowered the growth forecast for 2011-12 from 8%
  to 7.6% (in line with our expectations)
 Inflation forecast is kept at 7% by Mar-12 end.
 Money supply and Credit growth maintained at 15.5%
 and 18% respectively
 Depreciation of the rupee has emerged as another risk
  for inflation.
 Indian economy continued to face suppressed inflation
  as prices are administered in petroleum sector.
Increase / (Decrease)    At present

Repo Rate            Unchanged
                                          8.50%
Reverse Repo         Unchanged
                                          7.50%
Rate
Cash Reserve             .50%
                                          5.50%
Ratio
Statutory            Unchanged
                                          24.00%
Liquidity Ratio
Bank Rate            Unchanged
                                          6.00%
KEY FEATURES
 The drop in November 2011 WPI inflation to 9.11%, mainly due
  to softening in food inflation (4.35% for the week ended
  December 3, 2011)
 GDP growth rate has fallen to 6.9% from 7.7%(expected in Q2)
 Due to sharp moderation in industrial growth to
   -5.1%
 The fiscal deficit at 74.4% of budgeted 2011-12 was
  significantly higher than 42.6% in 2010-11
CONT-
 FDs (Fixed Deposits) are offering interest
  in the range of 7.25% - 9.40% p.a.
 Projection of GDP growth for 2011-12 is
  revised downwards from 7.6% to 7%.
 In reducing the CRR,INR 320 bn of
  primary liquidity will be injected into the
  banking system
INFLATION RATE 2011
RBI projections in three reviews in 2011-12
  Table 1: RBI Projections in Monetary Reviews (in %)


                     May-11    Jul 11        Oct-11


  Growth (2011-12) 8           8             7.6

  Inflation (Mar-12) 6         7             7

  M3 (Mar-12)        16        15.5          15.5

  Deposit (Mar-12)   17        -             -

  Credit (Mar-12)    19        18            18
or
2
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  • 1. MONETARY POLICY 2011-12  Repo rate hiked by 50 bps from 6.75% to 7.25%  Reverse Repo rate hiked by 50 bps from 5.75% to 6.25% (dependent  variable on the Repo rate – 100 bps below the Repo rate)  CRR kept unchanged at 6%  SLR kept unchanged at 24%  GDP growth projection for FY 2011-12 placed at around 8% (in the range of 7.4% and 8.5%)
  • 2. CONT-  FY 2011-12 March end WPI inflation baseline projection placed at 6% with an upward bias  M3 growth projected at 16%, deposit growth at 17% and non-food credit growth at 19%  Bank rate kept unchanged at 6%.  MSF introduced at 1% above the Repo rate (8.25%)  LAF corridor width set at 200 bps (with base at reverse repo – 6.25% & ceiling at MSF – 8.25%)  MP 2011-12.docx
  • 3. FIRST QUARTERLY REVIEW Increase / (Decrease) At present since March 2010 Repo Rate .5% 8%. Reverse Repo Rate .5% 7% Cash Reserve Ratio Unchanged 6%. Statutory Liquidity Unchanged 24% Ratio Bank Rate Unchanged 6%
  • 4. KEY FEATURES  GDP growth projection for FY 2011-12 kept unchanged at around 8%  Inflation projection for March end FY 2011-12 revised upwards to 7% from 6%
  • 5. SECOND QUARTERLY REVIEW Increase / (Decrease) At present Repo Rate .25% 8.5% Reverse Repo Rate .25%. 7.5% Cash Reserve Ratio Unchanged 6% Statutory Liquidity Unchanged 24% Ratio Bank Rate Unchanged 6%
  • 6. KEY FEATURES  RBI lowered the growth forecast for 2011-12 from 8% to 7.6% (in line with our expectations)  Inflation forecast is kept at 7% by Mar-12 end.  Money supply and Credit growth maintained at 15.5% and 18% respectively  Depreciation of the rupee has emerged as another risk for inflation.  Indian economy continued to face suppressed inflation as prices are administered in petroleum sector.
  • 7.
  • 8. Increase / (Decrease) At present Repo Rate Unchanged 8.50% Reverse Repo Unchanged 7.50% Rate Cash Reserve .50% 5.50% Ratio Statutory Unchanged 24.00% Liquidity Ratio Bank Rate Unchanged 6.00%
  • 9. KEY FEATURES  The drop in November 2011 WPI inflation to 9.11%, mainly due to softening in food inflation (4.35% for the week ended December 3, 2011)  GDP growth rate has fallen to 6.9% from 7.7%(expected in Q2)  Due to sharp moderation in industrial growth to -5.1%  The fiscal deficit at 74.4% of budgeted 2011-12 was significantly higher than 42.6% in 2010-11
  • 10. CONT-  FDs (Fixed Deposits) are offering interest in the range of 7.25% - 9.40% p.a.  Projection of GDP growth for 2011-12 is revised downwards from 7.6% to 7%.  In reducing the CRR,INR 320 bn of primary liquidity will be injected into the banking system
  • 12. RBI projections in three reviews in 2011-12 Table 1: RBI Projections in Monetary Reviews (in %) May-11 Jul 11 Oct-11 Growth (2011-12) 8 8 7.6 Inflation (Mar-12) 6 7 7 M3 (Mar-12) 16 15.5 15.5 Deposit (Mar-12) 17 - - Credit (Mar-12) 19 18 18