The document discusses emerging trends in information and communication technologies (ICT) and their implications. It notes that ICT is becoming pervasive and networked, with tremendous impact on society, the ICT workforce, and technical education. It argues that demand will increase for local ICT talent with broader skill sets that combine both depth and breadth of knowledge across disciplines and systems.

1. The Emerging Pervasive Networked Computing Explosion and its Tremendous Pending Impact on Society, ICT Workforce, and Technical Education Working Together to Build a Smarter Planet Presented by: Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, spohrer@us.ibm.com Director, IBM University Programs World Wide Co-created with Waqar Hasan, IBM Academic Initiatives (Western US Region) Smarter Government slides by: Mark E. Dixon, [email_address] MPICT (Mid-Pacific ICT) 2011 San Francisco, January 6, 2011

7. In 2001, there were 60 million transistors for every human on the planet ... In 2011, there is more than 1 billion transistors per human… … each costing 1/10 millionth of a cent.

8. Trends: ICT Evolution INSTRUMENTED We now have the ability to measure, sense and see the exact condition of practically everything. INTERCONNECTED People, systems and objects can communicate and interact with each other in entirely new ways. INTELLIGENT We can respond to changes quickly and accurately, and get better results by predicting and optimizing for future events. IT WORKFORCE MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN CUSTOMERS TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES

9. Our planet is a complex, dynamic, highly interconnected $54 Trillion system-of-systems (OECD-based analysis) Communication $ 3.96 Tn Transportation $ 6.95 Tn Leisure / Recreation / Clothing $ 7.80 Tn Healthcare $ 4.27 Tn Food $ 4.89 Tn Infrastructure $ 12.54 Tn Govt. & Safety $ 5.21 Tn Finance $ 4.58 Tn Electricity $ 2.94 Tn Education $ 1.36 Tn Water $ 0.13 Tn Global system-of-systems $54 Trillion (100% of WW 2008 GDP) Same Industry Business Support IT Systems Energy Resources Machinery Materials Trade Legend for system inputs Note: 1. Size of bubbles represents systems’ economic values 2. Arrows represent the strength of systems’ interaction Source: IBV analysis based on OECD This chart shows ‘systems‘ (not ‘industries‘)  Our planet is a complex system-of-systems 1 Tn

10. Economists estimate, that all systems carry inefficiencies of up to $15 Tn, of which $4 Tn could be eliminated How to read the chart: For example, the Healthcare system‘s value is $4,270B. It carries an estimated inefficiency of 42%. From that level of 42% inefficiency, economists estimate that ~34% can be eliminated (= 34% x 42%).  We now have the capabilities to manage a system-of-systems planet Source: IBM economists survey 2009; n= 480 Global economic value of $4 Trillion 7% of WW 2008 GDP Improvement potential $15 Trillion 28% of WW 2008 GDP Inefficiencies $54 Trillion 100% of WW 2008 GDP System-of-systems System inefficiency as % of total economic value Improvement potential as % of system inefficiency Education 1,360 Building & Transport Infrastructure 12,540 Healthcare 4,270 Government & Safety 5,210 Electricity 2,940 Financial 4,580 Food & Water 4,890 Transportation (Goods & Passenger) 6,950 Leisure / Recreation / Clothing 7,800 Communication 3,960 Analysis of inefficiencies in the planet‘s system-of-systems Note: Size of the bubble indicate absolute value of the system in USD Billions 42% 34% This chart shows ‘systems‘ (not ‘industries‘)

13. Changing Nature of Work Levy, F, & Murnane, R. J. (2004). The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Princeton University Press. Based on U.S. Department of Labor’ Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) Expert Thinking (deep) Complex Communication (broad) Routine Manual Non-routine Manual Routine Cognitive Increasing usage of job descriptive terms

14. What is the skills goal? T-Shaped professionals, ready for T-eamwork! SSME+D = Service Science, Management, Engineering + Design Many disciplines (understanding & communications) Many systems (understanding & communications) Deep in one discipline (analytic thinking & problem solving) Deep in one system (analytic thinking & problem solving) Many team-oriented service projects completed (resume: outcomes, accomplishments & awards)

15. How to visualize skills? The Systems-Disciplines Matrix disciplines systems Systems that focus on flows of things Systems that govern Systems that support people’s activities transportation & supply chain water & waste food & products energy & electricity building & construction healthcare & family retail & hospitality banking & finance ICT & cloud education &work city secure state scale nation laws social sciences behavioral sciences management sciences political sciences learning sciences cognitive sciences system sciences information sciences organization sciences decision sciences run professions transform professions innovate professions e.g., econ & law e.g., marketing e.g., operations e.g., public policy e.g., game theory and strategy e.g., psychology e.g., industrial eng. e.g., computer sci e.g., knowledge mgmt e.g., stats & design e.g., knowledge worker e.g., consultant e.g., entrepreneur stakeholders Customer Provider Authority Competitors resources People Technology Information Organizations change History (Data Analytics) Future (Roadmap) value Run Transform (Copy) Innovate (Invent) Starting Point 1: The Stackholders (As-Is) Starting Point 2: Their Resources (As-Is) Change Potential: Thinking (Has-Been & Might-Become) Value Realization: Doing (To-Be)

16. What is a Service System? What is Service Science? …customers just name <your favorite provider> …researchers just name <your favorite discipline> Economics & Law Design/ Cognitive Science Systems Engineering Operations Computer Science/ Artificial Intelligence Marketing “ a service system is a human-made system to improve customer-provider interactions, or value-cocreation between stakeholders” “ service science is the interdisciplinary study of service systems & value-cocreation”

20. Luxury Hotels as Holistic Service Systems: All the systems http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm7MeZlS5fo

21. Why Higher Ed Matters: % GDP and % Top 500 Strong Correlation (2009 Data): National GDP and University Rankings http://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html

22. Accelerating Innovation: Create Ideal or Reference Models Higher Education: Research Centers & Real-World Systems CITIES/METRO REGIONS: Universities Key to Long-Term Economic Development

23. Edu-Impact.Com “ When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction – the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs.”

24. Urban-Age.Net Currently, the world’s top 30 cities generate 80% of the world’s wealth. The Urban Age For the first time in history more than 50% the earth’s population live in cities - by 2050 it will be 75% The Endless City

25. Population growth per hour in major cities

27. There are now 6.8 Billion people on the planet… Source: National Geographic Society – “State of the Earth: 2010”

28. Systems carry inefficiencies of up to $15T... How to read the chart: As an example, the Healthcare system‘s value is $4,270B. It carries an estimated inefficiency of 42%. From that level of 42% inefficiency, economists estimate that ~34% can be eliminated (= 34% x 42%). We now have the capabilities to manage a system-of-systems planet... Source: IBM economists survey 2009; n= 480 (*Estimate) – Chart shows “systems”, not “industries. System inefficiency as % of total economic value Improvement potential as % of system inefficiency Education 1,360 Building & Transport Infrastructure 12,540 Healthcare 4,270 Government & Safety 5,210 Electricity 2,940 Financial 4,580 Food & Water 4,890 Transportation (Goods & Passenger) 6,950 Leisure / Recreation / Clothing 7,800 Communication 3,960 Analysis of inefficiencies in the planet‘s system-of-systems Note: Size of the bubble indicate absolute value of the system in USD Billions 42% 34% ...of which $4 Tn could be eliminated*.... Global economic value of System-of-systems $54 Trillion 100% of WW 2008 GDP Inefficiencies $15 Trillion 28% of WW 2008 GDP Improvement potential $4 Trillion 7% of WW 2008 GDP

29. The world will get smarter…because it must... 40-70 % of electrical energy is lost due to inefficiencies in the grid In one small business district in Los Angeles alone, cars burned 47,000 gallons of gasoline looking for parking Consume products and retail industries lose about $40 billion annually due to inefficient supply chains. In a world where people are undernourished, $48 billion worth of food is thrown away each year in the U.S. Our healthcare “system” can’t link from diagnosis to drug discovery, providers, insurers, employers and patients. Financial markets spread risk but can’t track it; this has lead to undermined confidence and uncertainty Weather-related events inflicted $1 trillion in damage from 1980-2003 Only 22% of reserves are extracted from the world’s existing oil wells. Global water usage has increased 6X since the 1900s. Today 1 in 5 people lacks safe drinking water. With poor urban governance, life expectancy within developing countries can be as low as 35 years. “ History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells

30. We need to build a smarter planet… … how can we start with smarter government ? Create a citizen-centered experience by improving citizen and business services. Embrace government transparency and accountability by managing resources effectively and efficiently. Possibilities to improve our quality of life and way of living + + = Instrumented Interconnected Intelligent

32. Looking to the Future: The “New Normal” Economic recession and future uncertainties Energy shortfalls and erratic commodity prices Slowing superpowers and emerging economies Complex value chains and empowered citizens “ ...the Great Recession that began in 2008 was not your grandmother’s standard recession. This was not just a deep economic slowdown that we can recover from and then blithely go back to our old ways—with just a little less leverage, a little less risk, and a little more regulation. No, this Great Recession was something much more important. It was our warning heart attack.” - Thomas Friedman – Hot, Flat and Crowded

33. Is government’s digital infrastructure ready? 70 ¢ 70% on average is spent on maintaining current IT infrastructures versus adding new capabilities. 82% 82% of executives expect some form of climate change regulation within 5 years. 59 59 countries or jurisdictions have or are considering mandatory cap and trade regulations. 2x Data center energy use doubling every 5 years 69X Storage growth will increase 69X this decade. 6X Server growth will increase 6X this decade. 78% 78% of data centers were built before the dot com era and are technically obsolete. 50% 50% of customers experience server or storage downtime as a direct result of power and cooling issues. 33% 33% of consumers notified of a security breach will terminate their relationship with the organization they perceived as responsible.

34. The way the world works is changing… and leaders must lead through the unknown... Gap between envisioned change and past success at managing it. Public sector leaders anticipate substantial change ahead. 23% 8 in 10 Source: 2008 IBM CEO Study (Before the Financial Crisis)

35. California Counties Population Density is in major metropolitan and coastal areas... Max Density: 9.3K / sq mile - CCSF Min Density: 2 / sq mile – Alpine County Avg Density: 240 / sq mile Recent suburban sprawl moving inland and replacing agricultural land – a disturbing trend for feeding Smarter Cities... Note the coastal counties from San Diego to Sonoma, which follow the California Mission Trail ( El Camino Real – 'The Royal Road'). All missions were roughly a day's ride apart. Most of the counties were named for the mission in their geography. Note further the central counties from San Francisco east to Lake Tahoe. Their formation follows the topology around major rivers coming from Sierra Nevada mountains - first for gold claims, then for water rights. Other counties reflect desert and mountain restrictions relative to topology, natural resource usage (agriculture) and population density

36. Local Governments: Cities & Counties Local Government is where the actual Service Delivery happens...both physically and digitally. Approximately 3,000 Counties in the US (Source: National Association of Counties - NACO) Approximately 20,000 Cities in the US (Source: League of Cities) US Census Data (2000): approximately 10K cities, 4.3K towns and 3.7K villages =18,000 63 of the 273 (23%) US cities over 100K population are in California – over 16M people 8 of the Top 50 cities (population) are in California 58 Counties and 480 Cities in California City and County of San Francisco the only combined local government Essential differentiator: Counties do not have revenue generation authority...they rely on the state for general fund revenues...counties can only exercise cost containment capabilities. “ Think global, act local.” – Patrick Geddes, early 1900's Midsized businesses represent about 65% of the global GDP and 90% of its workforce. - Harish Krishnamurthy, IBM VP GMU Midmarket

38. Local Government Collaboration for a Smarter Planet Contact: Mark Dixon (medixon@us.ibm.com) – STG Systems Architect – Public Sector Smarter Local Government Reinventing Local Government in California and the USA Smarter Government Smarter Water Smarter Analytics Smarter Cities Smarter Food Smarter Transportation Smarter Buildings Economics Innovation Integration

40. Time ECOLOGY 14B Big Bang (Natural World) 10K Cities (Human-Made World) Sun writing (symbols and scribes) Earth written laws bacteria (uni-cell life) sponges (multi-cell life) money (coins) universities clams (neurons) tribolites (brains) printing press (books) steam engine Where is the “Real Science” in Service Science? In the sciences of the natural and human-made worlds… Evolving hierarchical-complexity of populations of things 200M bees (social division-of-labor) 60 transistor