PV Markets worldwide - an overview Edwin Koot - CEO Solarplaza

1. “Trends in the global PV
market”
Edwin Koot
CEO SolarPlaza

2. SolarPlaza
SolarPlaza support project development in Spain
© Laxtron
SolarPlaza PV Business Tour China; April 2006.
Meeting with founder Dr. Zhengrong Shi,
founder Suntech Power, 10 billion dollar PV
PV Trade mission to California in 2007 SolarPlaza PV Business Tour Taiwan; Jan 2008. company

3. The Global PV market
WORLD PV MARKET
[MWp/year] NEWLY INSTALLED PV POWER
12.000
10.000
CAGR: 50%
8.000
6.000 Crisis, what crisis?
4.000
2009: +11% growth
2.000
2010: +69% growth
-
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

4. The leading PV markets in 2009
4000
3500
3000
53% global
2500
market share;
10 MW/day…
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Italy
Japan
Republik
Belgium
France
South
Australia
UK
China
Germany
Korea
USA
Czech

5. Germany: the engine of industry…
16000
[MWp/year]
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
? Buerstad; 50.000 m2, Photo by Ralph Orlowski/2005 Getty
Images, Inc.
4000
2000
0
10 MW Sunpower project in Bavaria
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
© Solarplaza April 2010; Data source: Bundesnetzagentur plus Solarplaza model
5

6. Most important applications
© Frankensolar Foto: ©Enfinity; McBride, Ieper, Belgium
© Solarfabrik

7. The PV industry
• 150 cell manufacturers
• >400 module
producers
• 85% c-Si
• Oversupply…
2002: 10 MW 2002: 10 MW 2002: 3 MW 2004: 10 MW
2010: 1200 MW 2009: 1000 MW 2009: 600 MW 2009: 600 MW
11.5 Mrd $ 2,6 Mrd $ 2 Mrd $ 2 Mrd $

8. Declining module prices
Solarfun (NASDAQ)
$4,50
[$/Wp]
$4,00
Forecast
$3,50
analyst
$3,00
$2,50
$2,00
$1,50
$1,00
$0,50
$0,00
Q2-­‐08
Q3-­‐08
Q4-­‐08
Q1-­‐09
Q2-­‐09
Q3-­‐09
Q4-­‐09
Q1-­‐10
Q2-­‐10
Q3-­‐10

9. World market 2010-2013
• German market is 20.000
18.000
German PV market
essential!
PV market USA
16.000 Global PV market
14.000 China
• Emerging: Italy, USA,
[MWp/year]
12.000
China, India, France, 10.000
8.000
Belgium 6.000
4.000
• New markets: 2.000
Australia, Canada, -
2003 2008 2013
Bulgaria, Israel,
© SolarPlaza April 2010; various
UK, Turkey… data sources

10. Belgian PV market
500,0
[MWp/year]
450,0
400,0
350,0
Start of
300,0 incentives
250,0
200,0
150,0
100,0
50,0
0,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
© Solarplaza, April 2009; Data sources: ODE,

11. 3 years to develop a market…
3000
[MWp] Italy
Spain
2500
Germany
Belgium
2000
1500
Comparison:
Start at the
1000 same time
500
0
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6
© Solarplaza May 2009; Data sources: BSW, GSE, ASIF and Solarplaza data model
11

12. Subsidy dependence gone
within 10 years

13. Long term market drivers
• Growing electricity
demand
• Shortage of oil [IEA]
• Climate change policy 800 MWp = 50.000 e-cars
• Independence & security
• Technology development
+40% growth feasible

14. PV market growth scenarios
160
[GWp/yr]
140 Past 10 years:
50%/year
120 €500 billion
100
80
60
40 Wind energy &
EPIA: 25%/year
20 €150 billion
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
© Solarplaza April 2010; Data source: analyses by Solarplaza based on various sources

15. Conclusions
• 2010-2015:
– UK PV market will start to grow
– Declining module prices
– Industry consolidation
• 2015-2020:
– Growing subsidy independence
– New business models
– Strong global growth

16. “Grid-parity”
[€/kWh]
Example: Spain
0,50
0,45
Solar energy
0,40 price
“Grid
0,35 parity”
0,30
0,25
0,20
0,15
0,10
Electricity price
0,05
0,00
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2013
2015
2017
2020
2011

17. Grid-parity, and then…?
• New business
0,30
[€/kWh] Electricity
0,25 price
models 0,20
• New energy 0,15
Solar energy
price
companies? 0,10
• Capital is crucial 0,05
0,00
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026