1. Adel El Gammal
Secretary General
Brussels, 28 October 2010

3. 3Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010
1. 66 Sunbelt countries represent respectively ~75% of 6.7 bn world population and
39% of the 17.900 TWh world electricity demand
2. Electricity consumption will grow by ~150% within the next 20 years
3. 1.5 bn world citizen have no access to electricity
4. Poor infrastructure and high electricity costs
5. Very high solar irradiation
6. PV, already competitive in some countries will become competitive with all peak
generation by 2020 and most generation technologies by 2030
Countries in scope of study
35° S
35° N
0°Sunbelt

4. 4Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010
Irradiation vs. Market size (2009)
Share in power demand
and PV capacity

5. 5Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010
PRICING CAPABILITY FOR LARGE PV SYSTEMS (€/kWp)

6. 6Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010
Operating hours (kWh/kWp)
PV LCOE RANGES (€c/kWh)

7. 7Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010
PV
Diesel Peak
Gas
peaking2)
Peak Load
energy
sources
Medium
Load energy
sources
CCGT2)
IGCC3)
Oil Fired
Comparison of LCOE 2010, 2020, 2030 (€c/kWh)
low case fuel projection
2010 2020 2030
3020151050 25
LCOE (€c/KWh)

8. 8Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010
PV
Diesel Peak
Gas
peaking2)
Peak Load
energy
sources
Medium
Load energy
sources
CCGT2)
IGCC3)
Oil Fired
LCOE (€c/KWh)
3020151050 25
Comparison of LCOE 2010, 2020, 2030 (€c/kWh)
high case fuel projection
2010 2020 2030

9. 9Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010
Country investment attractiveness
PV attractiveness for
country
High
Low
Venezuela, RB
United Arab Emirates
Turkey
Tunisia
Thailand
Tanzania
Zambia
Sri Lanka
Syrian Arab Republic
AlgeriaPeru
Philippines
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Singapore
South Africa
Jordan
Jamaica
Israel
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Indonesia
India
Guatemala
Ghana
Ethiopia
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Ecuador
Dominican Republic
Costa Rica
Colombia
China
Chile
Cameroon
Cambodia
Brazil
Yemen, Rep. Bangladesh
Australia
Argentina
Angola
Pakistan
Nigeria
Nepal
Namibia
Botswana
Morocco
Mexico
Malaysia
Libya
Lebanon
Kuwait
Kenya
Vietnam
Mozambique
High
Increasing PV Opportunity
• Size of electricity market
• e-demand growth
• PV Cost competitiveness
• Generation portfolio
• Power grid losses
• Power grid coverage
• Market potential
• Political and business environment
• Financial stability
• Policies on renewable energy

10. 10Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010
Scenario’s Installed PV in
Sunbelt (GWp)
Share in global cumulative installed
PV capacity by 2030 (GWp)

11. 11Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010
Size of bubble = PV Potential 2030 in GWp (Paradigm Shift Scenario)
Other Sunbelt markets15 middle marketsChina
PV potential by 2030 in
Paradigm Shift (GWp)
Comparison of PV potential
by 2030 (GWp)

13. 13Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010
Policy support /
level playing field
 Awareness building and information campaign regarding PV is needed
among opinion and decision makers in Sunbelt
 A stable policy environment is necessary to provide investment
confidence and support deployment during pre-competitive phase
 Established PV companies need to take market
making actions to create ecosystem for growth
 Public and Private investment will ne necessary to finance
capacity building and to provide the necessary impetus
Finance
PV Know-how
& Perception
Grid
Infrastructure
Implementation
& Service
 Grid operators need to understand the multiple benefits
of PV especially as peak generation technology

14. 14Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010
EPIA
Governments
Policy
Makers
Financing
Institutions
Private
Investment
Utilities
Industry
National
Associations
& Civil
Society

16. 16Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010
• PV taps into unlimited, indigenous energy supply and can make a
sizeable contribution to meet rising power demand.
• PV is a low carbon technology and has a best in class energy
payback time; currently 8-16 months and constantly decreasing.
• PV is scalable from W to MW. I can be used in:
• Centralised power plants;
• Mini-grids for powering decentralized or remote communities;
• Rooftop applications in dense urban environments;
• Off-grid applications for rural electrification.
• PV capacity can be scaled up very quickly and constitutes a key
solution to meet the soaring electricity demand in the Sunbelt.

17. 17Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010
• PV has very low O&M costs. It doesn’t need water to operate.
• In Sunbelt Countries, PV LCOE will reach
• 12 - 20 €c/KWh currently, making it competitive with diesel peak
generation
• 6 - 12 €c/kWh in by 2020, making it competitive with all peak
generation technologies
• 4 - 8 €c/KWh by 2030, making it competitive with most generation
technologies
• Depending on the scenario, PV potential in Sunbelt Countries could
range from 60 to 250 GW by 2020, and from 260 to 1,100 GW in
2030, representing 27-58% of the forecasted global installed PV
capacity by then.
•

18. 18Unlocking the PV Potential in Sunbelt Countries, Brussels, October 28th 2010
 PV competitive potential is massive
 PV is a clean, affordable and democratic electricity source for
North and South, cities and countries.
 PV will be mainstream by 2020 and a major contributor to
electricity supply worldwide by 2030

19. www.epia.org
Adel El Gammal
a.elgammal@epia.org