Mais conteúdo relacionado Semelhante a APS1015 Class 3 - Systems Analysis (20) Mais de Social Entrepreneurship (20) APS1015 Class 3 - Systems Analysis1. APS 1015: Social Entrepreneurship
Class 3: Gap Analysis within Social
Systems
Monday, September 23, 2013
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Instructors:
Norm Tasevski (norm@socialentrepreneurship.ca)
2. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Agenda
• Review of Social Systems
• Break
• Gap Analysis within Social Systems
• Next week
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3. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
What is a System?
“A set of "Things” (people, organizations, objects…) that are
interconnected in such a way that they form their
own pattern of behaviour over time”
Donella Meadows
4. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
System Behaviour
• A system creates/causes its own responses
• Outside forces can influence system response, but
don’t cause the response
• The same outside force that acts upon two different
systems can therefore elicit two different responses
• Example: the flu virus
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5. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
System Components
1. Elements
2. Interconnections
3. Functions/Purpose
Example: Soccer (Football)
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Elements
Interconnections
Purpose
6. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
System Components
• Elements
– Tangible (people, buildings)
– Intangible (team pride, learned skills)
• Interconnections
– Physical flows (e.g. objects moving)
– Information flows (e.g. rules, instructions)
• Function/Purpose
– Intended responses (e.g. goal to win a soccer match)
– Unintended responses (e.g. violence after a soccer match)
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7. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Importance of Systems Change
• Systems are dynamic
(not static) they
naturally change 7
8. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Importance of Systems Change
• Systems, if left alone,
can create adverse
consequences 8
10. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Voliatily is analogous to
Vibration
Stressors
Fluctuation
Variance
11. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
3 TYPES OF SYSTEMS
Fragile
Resilient
Anti-fragile
13. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Exercise 1
• Volunteer?
• Participation points!
15. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Fragile Systems
=
hurt by volatility
value efficiency
aggregate risk
tend to hide errors
18. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Resilient Systems
=
can bounce back from shocks/volatility
redundant by design (ex. Email)
22. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Antifragile Systems
=
gain from volatility
small errors lead to learning
decentralize risk
23. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
How to Spot Opportunities
1. Pretend you’re sent here from the future
2. Get specific! Real life isn’t general
3. Think about problems you have
4. Contrarian, and right
24. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Opportunity Indicators
1. High margins
2. Stagnation – old, dinosaur industries
3. Intermediaries
4. Rapid change in adjacent domains (tech,
economics, etc. )
5. Tyrannical control
6. Pent up unhappiness!
7. What bugs you?
8. Things everyone believes
26. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Cause and Effect Chain - Example
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Poverty
ResultEffect
Hunger
Cause
(Proximate)
Can’t grow
enough food
Cause (Ultimate)
Bad soil?
Soil erosion?
Not enough
water?
Not enough
labour?
Over-used
soil?
Don’t know
how to
prevent it
Rains too
hard
Changing
rain
patterns?
No irrigation
resources?
People sick?
27. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
The Vicious Circle
• A symptom (effect) of a social condition can also
be a cause, which then serves to further deepen
the social condition
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28. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Vicious Circle - Example
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Poverty
ResultEffect
Hunger
Cause
(Proximate)
Can’t grow
enough food
Cause (Ultimate)
Bad soil?
Soil erosion?
Not enough
water?
Not enough
labour?
Over-used
soil?
Don’t know
how to
prevent it
Rains too
hard
Changing
rain
patterns?
No irrigation
resources?
People sick?
Malnutrition
Poor Health
Hunger could therefore be
both an effect and a cause of
poverty
29. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Vulnerability vs. Resiliency
• Vulnerability
– The reduced ability for elements within a system to
withstand shocks to the system
– Examples of shocks:
• A crop failure/drought
• A health crisis/new illness
• Resiliency
– The absence of vulnerability (i.e. the ability to absorb
shocks to a system)
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30. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
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“Root Causes of
Poverty” Workshop
Tabe Ere
33. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Current State & Future State
• Current State
– The amount of “stock” between two elements in a system
– The stock is typically a measurable quantity
– Examples:
• Amount of water behind a dam
• Level of trust in government
• Amount of money in a bank account
– The current state can have either in an ideal level, an over-
abundance or a scarcity of stock
• Future State
– The ideal level of stock between elements in a system
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34. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Inflows and Outflows
• Inflows
– An increase in stock
• Outflows
– A decrease in stock
• Example: Soil erosion
– Excess inflow of water;
insufficient/ineffective
outflow of water
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Cause (Ultimate)
Bad soil?
Soil erosion?
Over-used
soil?
Don’t know
how to
prevent it
Rains too
hard
35. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Correcting Loops
• The mechanisms for
controlling the inflows
and outflows within a
social system to
maintain an ideal
state
• Correcting loops are
not necessarily
“visible” in a system
– Example: how do we
maintain ideal state of
trust in government?
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Cause (Ultimate)
Bad soil?
Soil erosion?
Over-used
soil?
Don’t know
how to
prevent it
Rains too
hard
• What correcting loop
can we form in the
system shown above?
36. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Correcting Loops
• The mechanisms for
controlling the inflows
and outflows within a
social system to
maintain an ideal
state
• Correcting loops are
not necessarily
“visible” in a system
– Example: how do we
maintain ideal state of
trust in government?
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Cause (Ultimate)
Bad soil?
Soil erosion?
Over-used
soil?
Don’t know
how to
prevent it
Rains too
hard
• What correcting loop
can we form in the
system shown above?
• What is the ideal
state?
37. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Parameters
• The
considerations/factors
that affect inflow and
outflow
• Example: Erosion
– Rainfall
– Soil type
– Landscape/topography
– Vegetation type
– Land management
• Can be unchangeable
or changeable
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Cause (Ultimate)
Bad soil?
Soil erosion?
Over-used
soil?
Don’t know
how to
prevent it
Rains too
hard
• What parameters can
be changed? What
can’t be changed?
38. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Parameters (Continued)
Parameters are one form of intervention (aka
“Leverage Points”) to address gaps in a system
But…
…we will cover leverage points in class 4
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39. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Changing Systems
Characteristics of adaptive systems:
• Complexity
– The need to use multiple perspectives or layers to
understand
• Intractability
– The inability to exactly predict or control the change taking
place
• Stability and Change
– Understanding that trying to manage a single variable may
cause (multiple) other variables in the system to also
change.
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40. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Understanding Changing Systems
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1. Potential (i.e. the limit to what is possible)
2. Connectedness ( i.e. the degree to which a system is able to
control what happens to it through internal controls/feedback
mechanisms/design/infrastructure)
3. Resilience – the ability to tolerate disturbances before
something changes (good or bad).
What influences change:
Each of these factors apply to the system as a whole, as well as
ANY VARIABLE WITHIN THE SYSTEM.
41. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Adaptability & Evolution of Systems
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1. Exploitation - a stage of rapid
expansion. For example: a fertile
niche.
2. Conservation – a stage where slow
accumulation and storage of
energy and material is
emphasized. For example:
stabilization.
3. Release – a stage that occurs
rapidly, as when a population
declines due to a competitor, or
changed conditions
4. Reorganization – a stage that can
also occur rapidly, as when certain
members of the population are
selected for their ability to survive
despite the competitor or changed
conditions that triggered the
release.
42. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Analysis of Systems
• Goal:
– Identify the imbalances in the current state and begin to
understand how to design an intervention to address the
imbalance so the system can adapt towards the future
state.
• Steps:
– Describe the current state (inflows, outflows, changeable +
non-changeable parameters, stock imbalances)
– Describe the ideal future state (ideal inflow/outflow levels
and ideal parameters)
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43. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Exercise
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Describe the current state in one area of this system
Poverty
ResultEffect
Hunger
Cause
(Proximate)
Can’t grow
enough food
Cause (Ultimate)
Bad soil?
Soil erosion?
Not enough
water?
Not enough
labour?
Over-used
soil?
Don’t know
how to
prevent it
Rains too
hard
Changing
rain
patterns?
No irrigation
resources?
People sick?
Malnutrition
Poor Health
44. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
Another Analysis Technique
• PESTEL Analysis
– Political: The degree to which government intervenes in a
system
• E.g.: political stability, tax/education/health policies
– Economic: The degree to which economic factors affect a
system
• E.g.: economic growth, interest rates, inflation
– Social: Cultural factors that affect a system
• E.g. attitudes toward health, career, the elderly
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45. © Norm Tasevski & Karim Harji
PESTEL (Continued)
• PESTEL Analysis (Continued)
– Technological: Technological factors found in a system
• E.g.: level of R&D, level of automation
– Environmental: Ecological and environmental factors in a
system
• E.g.: weather, climate, land use/degradation
– Legal: The man-made laws governing a system
• E.g. tax/employment/health laws, type of legal system
(e.g. civil, common, religious)
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Notas do Editor Flu – the virus doesn’t attack a person, the body creates the conditions for the flu to flourishTalk about the way this happens – Flu – the virus doesn’t attack a person, the body creates the conditions for the flu to flourishTalk about the way this happens – NORMFocus on the distinction between entrepreneur and enterprise