1. Energy Efficient Transport in 2020: Key Policy, Technology & Research Drivers Paul Wuebben, Clean Fuels Officer South Coast Air Quality Management District Southern California Smart Grid Research Symposium Davidson Conference Center UNIVERSITY of SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA October 6, 2009 +

7. Airborne Cancer Risk Including Diesel : Ubiquitous + Petroleum Use Driven South Coast Air Basin

8. U.S. Oil Market Dynamics

9. The Energy Challenge:

10. source: IPCC Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Unprecedented Growth Rates = Unprecedented Problems

11. Source: James Hansen, 2008 Fossil Fuel Use: Largest Atmospheric Experiment in History

13. Warmer Days Lead To Both Higher Emissions + More Ozone Source: Air Resources Board, 2000 Ozone (ppm) Temperature ( o F) Los Angeles Ozone Levels (1995-1998 ) California Ozone Standard Source: California Environmental Protection Agency

14. ENSO – El Nino Southern Oscillation (3 – 8 yr. cycle) Climate Implications of High Carbon Fuel Use:

15. Teleconnections and Feedbacks Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Tibetan Albedo Change? ENSO Triggering Indian Monsoon Transformation Bodele Dust Supply Change? Bistability / Collapse of Amazonian Forest? Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump

16. Teleconnections and Feedbacks Atlantic Deep Water Formation Instability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Southern Ocean Upwelling / Circumpolar Deep Water Formation Instability of Methane Clathrates Instability of Greenland Ice Sheet? ENSO Triggering Bodele Dust Supply Change? Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Bistability / Collapse of Amazonian Forest? Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump Tibetan Albedo Change? Indian Monsoon Transformation

17. Runaway Greenhouse Dynamics? Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Indian Monsoon Transformation Bistability / Collapse of Amazonian Forest? Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Bodele Dust Supply Change? Tibetan Albedo Change? Atlantic Deep Water Formation Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump Tibetan Albedo Change? Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump Bodele Dust Supply Change? Atlantic Deep Water Formation ENSO Triggering Southern Ocean Upwelling / Circumpolar Deep Water Formation Instability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Instability of Greenland Ice Sheet? ENSO Triggering Instability of Greenland Ice Sheet? Instability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Southern Ocean Upwelling / Circumpolar Deep Water Formation Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions

18. GHG Emissions: Transportation Sources Dominate in CA

20. California’s RPS: Most Aggressive in the Country Source: Black and Veatch

21. GHG Emissions (MMTCO2eq) AB32 Transportation Sector Carbon Reduction Strategies Plug-in Hybrids + Battery Electric Vehicles contribute to these “wedges”

23. WTW GHG Emissions – gCO2e/MJ Adjustments reflect EER + iLUC assumptions Source: CARB Jan., 2009 Corn Ethanol with iLUC adjusted from 74.3 104.3 * CA-RFG 95.6 CARBOB 96.9 ULSD 94.5 CNG from N.A. gas adjusted from 68.0 75.6 * Corn Ethanol 74.3 G-H2 via LH2 transport, NA NG adjusted from 142.2 61.8 * G- H2 - onsite reform., NA NG adjusted from 98.3 42.7 * Electricity - CA mix adjusted from 124.1 41.4 * Gaseous H2 - onsite gen. NA LFG adjusted from 76.1 33.1 Biodiesel - Soybeans 26.9 Sugar Cane Ethanol adjusted from 26.6 72.6 Cellulosic Ethanol - Farmed Trees 5.38

24. Electricity Carbon Intensity

25. 12

29. GM Volt 230

30. Chrysler GEM

32. 35 to 45 B Gals of Cellulosic Ethanol or Renewable Methanol Breakthroughs 30%

33. 2 x Fuel Economy Increase with Aggressive Hybrid Drivetrains 40 – 50 mpg CAFE 35 to 45 B Gals of Cellulosic Ethanol or Biomass Methanol Breakthrouoghs 30% 30%

34. Diversion to Renewable Electricity with Plug-in Technology Σ= 90% 2 x Fuel Economy Increase with Aggressive Hybrid Drivetrains 40 – 50 mpg CAFE 35 to 45 B Gals of Cellulosic Ethanol or Biomass Methanol Breakthrouoghs 30% 30% 30%

36. WHY A SMART GRID ?

40. A Smart Grid Can Shift the Economics of Recharging… thereby increasing the % of miles replaced with Electricity !

41. P-HEV Design Alternatives

42. - CA Grid Plus added upstream benefits of biofuels Charge Depleting (Plug In) Systems -> Lower GHG Emissions than simply hybrids 19

43. Role of Renewable Generation

45. The “Systems Management” Challenge: How best to “farm” off-peak generation

46. Source: http://www.co. marin .ca.us/ depts /CD/main/ comdev /advance/Sustainability/Energy/solar/resources/ pdf / MarinPVSeminar _1104_final. pdf A Smart Grid Will Also Help Avoid the Need for Diesel Back-up Generation…

52. “ The Smart Grid will like you…”

53. THANK YOU FOR THIS OPPORTUNITY !