2. Energy Risk & the End of Coal?:
What does the closing of coal fired power plants mean for baseload power?
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3. About this Webinar
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4. About Today’s Panel
Branko Terzic is currently Executive Director of Deloitte Center for EnergySolutions and
the Regulatory Policy Leader in Energy & Resources for Deloitte Services LP. He is a
member of the National Coal Council advisory body to the President. Commissioner on
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and State of Wisconsin Public Service
Commission.
Bradford Radimer is the Director, Risk Control at NRG Energy, Inc. with over 40 years
of energy industry experience. At NRG, Brad is responsible for designing and managing
enterprise wide risk policies, policy compliance and transaction confirmations. Brad is
also Co-Leader of the team that wrote the CCRO Risk Management Standards for
Energy Market Participants.
Jim Pierobon is a career-long energy marketing communications pro who has created and
managed marketing programs and campaigns for multi-national companies, trade
associations, government agencies and non-profits at transformational stages of the growth.
currently owns a networked marketing consultancy, Pierobon & Partners LLC, with colleagues
in Houston, San Francisco and New York City. He blogs at TheEnergyFix.com.
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5. Projected Capacity Retirements
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6. 2012 Long-Term Reliability
Assessment
Preliminary Highlights
Courtesy of
Dave Nevius
Senior Vice President, NERC

7. NERC Preliminary
Year when each Assessment Area’s projected Anticipated Reserve Margin falls below the NERC
Reference Margin Level
SaskPower (W) MAPP (S) Manitoba (W) MISO-US (S) Ontario IESO (S)
2014, 2016, 2020 2020 2021 2021 2017
BC (W)
2020
AESO (S)
2020
NORW (S)
2019
BASN (S)
2019
PJM (S)
ROCK (S) 2020
2018
CALN (S)
2018
MEXW (S) ERCOT (S)
2021 2013

8. NERC Preliminary 2013-2022
Capacity Outlook
Future-Planned Net Peak Capacity Change (Does not include Conceptual resources)
2013 Capacity Mix
90
80 0% 19%
10-Year Change 28%
70
11%
60
5%
50
40 Gas and Renewables 37%
30 make up bulk of additions
W
w
2022 Future-Planned
G
a
g
s
t
)
(
i
Capacity Mix
20
0%
10 20%
26%
0
11%
-10 5%
-20
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 38%
2013 Existing and Planned 2022 Planned 2022 Conceptual 10-Year Change
Capacity Type Capacity Share of Total Capacity Share of Total Capacity Share of Total Planned Conceptual
Coal 307,201 28.22% 290,496 25.85% 294,641 23.74% -16,705 -12,560
Petroleum 52,410 4.81% 52,410 4.66% 52,377 4.22% 0 -33
Gas 409,045 37.57% 427,165 38.02% 493,924 39.80% 18,120 84,878
Nuclear 117,151 10.76% 124,225 11.06% 127,357 10.26% 7,074 10,206
Other/Unknown 411 0.04% 5,850 0.52% 6,229 0.50% 5,438 5,818
Renewables 202,546 18.60% 223,516 19.89% 266,448 21.47% 20,971 63,903
TOTAL 1,088,764 100.00% 1,123,663 100.00% 1,240,977 100.00% 34,899 152,213
Preliminary Data

9. Deloitte’s Sixteen Cases to Infer Answers
CO2 Cap Case 1
SO2, NOx, Hg Cap
No CO2 Case 2
RPS w/REC
CO2 Cap
No SO2, NOx, Hg Case 3
No CO2 Case 4
High Gas Price
CO2 Cap Case 5
SO2, NOx, Hg Cap
No CO2 Case 6
No RPS
CO2 Cap Case 7
No SO2, NOx, Hg
No CO2 Case 8
CO2 Cap
SO2, NOx, Hg Cap Case 9
No CO2 Case 10
RPS w/REC
CO2 Cap
No SO2, NOx, Hg Case 11
No CO2 Case 12
Low Gas Price
CO2 Cap
SO2, NOx, Hg Cap Case 13
No CO2
No RPS Case 14
CO2 Cap
Case 15
No SO2, NOx, Hg
No CO2 Case 16
Copyright © 2012 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved

10. Annual Power Generation (MWh) —Case 1 (“All In” Regulation)
6E+09
5E+09
RN ST
CT
4E+09
3E+09
CC
W
M
G
h
n
o
a
r
e
)
(
t
i
2E+09
LS Coal FG CC
DC S
oal
HS Coal
1E+09
Nuclear
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Year
Copyright © 2012 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved

11. Annual Average Wholesale Electricity Price
Copyright © 2012 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved

12. Modeled with Deloitte MarketPoint Integrated
Model Suite
North American Coal
Prairie
Canada North American Gas
Northwest
Fort Northern British Western
NPRB Union Appalachia / Columbia Canada
Green River Basin Illinois Pittsburg #8
British Alberta
SPRB Basin Saskatchewan
ColumbiaKingsgate Monchy E. Canada Eastern
Uinta Basin Emerson
Central Huntingdon Ontario Iroquois Canada
Central
Southwest / Interior Appalachia Pacific NW N. NE
Pac. Niagara
New Mexico NW Great Midwest
Southern Rocky Plains Mid
Mtns ENC
Appalachia N. Cal Atlantic
Gulf Coast / TX
WNC+ Mtn
EOR San Appalachia
PGE Anadarko
So.Cal Juan Off-
North American Electric and Emissions SCG
SDGE
Permian
Basin WSC
ESC
S. Atlantic
Shore
Atlantic
Mexico Gulf
Coast
WECC
Brit Col WECC
Alberta NPCC NPCC
Canada East
Quebec
MAPP
Canada
NPCC
Ontario
NEPOOL
Northeast
World Gas
NYPP
North
WECC
Montana
WECC MAPP
USast
-
E NEPOOL
Southwest
Pac NW MAPP
US
-West
WECC MAIN NYPP
West
Idaho WUM ECAR
Michigan NYPP
South
FSU
WECC
Wyoming MAAC
WECC MAPP
US
-South MAAC
West East
COB MAIN
Pacific
NIL
WECC
N Nevada MAAC
South
ECAR
East
ECAR
North
WEC West
Rim
N CA MAIN
Europe
WECC
Utah WECC SOM VACAR
North
Colorado SPP
WECC North
America
Bay CA VACAR
Entergy
North TVA Central
East
WECC
Ctrl CA WECC
S Nevada TVA
North/South
SPP VACAR
South
WECC South
S CA New TVA
WECC
Arizona Mexico Entergy
Central West
Southern
Central Southern
East
WECC ERCOT
North
CMB
Southern
Middle
West
Entergy
South
ERCOT
West
Mainland
ERCOT FRCC
North
Central
ERCOT
Gulf East
ERCOT
FRCC
South
Asia
Latin
South
America
NOx SOx CO2 Hg Australia
Africa
The four entitlement NOx SOx CO2 Hg
hubs
Copyright © 2012 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved

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