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Rather than take notes all the information on this method is  found on  www.sharesguru.com/forum/index.php To Download copy of this presentation look for CGVI on http://www.lainie.com.au/sharesguru/index.html For latest CGVI figures, or screen for stock using CGVI: http:// www.sharefilter.com / * Email  the addresses to a friend to help their Investing * C G V I  Explained
cgvi040705  DISCLAIMER ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“  C G V I “ A “COMPARATIVE GROWTH & VALUE INDICATOR” FOR SELECTING SHARES “ If you can’t calculate a  “CGVI”  for a share then you are Speculating” A Jodi Robertson Scientific Business Slide Presentation
A Method of Selecting Shares for Pension Endowment & Family Trust ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Is There A Single Value Indicator To Give Guidance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
By Presentation End You Will  Understand how to  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Now Have you ever. . . . . . ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Adding 3 Important Share Indicators gives a  “CGVI” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
THE  “CGVI”  FORMULA EPSc  +  DPSc  EPSc  -  DPSc CGVI %  =  ------------------  +  ------------------ $ SHARE PRICE  $ NTA Backing EPSc  = Earnings Per Share in cents DPSc  = Dividend Per Share in Cents $ NTA = Net Tangible Assets Backing Per Share  $ Share Price. All data in Daily Financial review. Warning: If first part of calc is less than 9.3 or second part less than 7 then this share’s calcs  may be suspect
CGVI TYPE Filter was for Small  to Medium USA Enterprises  & ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Using NAB National Bank as Example  DATA:  NAB  $28.88 .  DPSc  166   NTA$  10.34 .  EPSc  270 1. Add EPSc to DPSc & divide result by $ Share price. 2. From EPSc take DPSc and divide  by $NTA 3. Add these two numbers to get a share’s  CGVI. Step 1  270 + 166  =  436  divide by $ 28.88  =  15.09 Step 2  270 - 166   =  104  divide by $ 10.34  = 10.05 Step 3  CGVI  = 15.09  +  10.05   =  25.14  Accumulate to Price of  $ 43.90.  BUT Check The Trend. CGVI of 25.1 equates to Optimum Buy Price of  $ 31.30
Quick & Easy Data Source The Daily Financial Review ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Result  of This Calculation Suncorp is a worthy BUY Study ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Probability & Kelly Optimization & Stop Loss ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],* COMPANY: SUNCORP FYR * CGVI = 24.19843 * THEORETICAL OPT BUY TO $15.03 Accum to $ 21.83 AMf!. Hold to $ 33.03 PPMg=123 %* *PRICE $14.80 $15.15 $15.50 $15.85 $16.20 $16.55 $16.90 $17.25 $17.60 *YIELD*  4.73%  4.62%  4.52%  4.42%  4.32%  4.23%  4.14%  4.06%  3.98% *CGVI%  24.20  23.90  23.61  23.33  23.07  22.82  22.58  22.35  22.12 *STUDY  WAIT?  ACCUM  ACCUM  ACCUM  ACCUM  ACCUM  ACCUM  ACCUM  ACCUM  *LEVEL* * UDR =  0.70.  W/L RATIO: 23.3% OF PREFERRED ?. LAST PRICE MOVE:  DOWN? * Subjective Probability look for count of 10 next two lines. *PE 12.0 AAR 13.8% Y Pgm 0.87 Y Nfm 1.5 Y EYL 8.3% Pge 1.45 N Nfe 1.1 Y YES= 3 *PCI 35 Y UDR  1 Y CCV 24 Y MOS%  2  Acc% 47 Y Hld%123 Y V12  3 Y YES=!! 6 ENTER PRICE TREND FOR 3 & 12 MNTH Eg DD UD U = UP F = FLAT D = DOWN ? * S/PROB MODIFIED CV= 21.78 OK AS STILL >20 *  WARNING: PRICE DOWN WARNING Check Price Trend * Sectional Portfolio Pool = $70k One seventh = $10k. share: SUNCORP FYR * Count= 9  PROB.= 90 %. KELLY%= 80 %. Inv= $ 8000  ORDER: 541  Shares  * ENTER NO OF $70K POOLS IN TOTAL PORTFOLIO ? * STOP LOSS IF Trend Down:= $ 12.73 TO Prof Maximise: $ 13.70 NO IFS / BUTS *
New  single Screen display of CVGI Calculations
When Should  I Use CGVI. Historical Review may  Surprise ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Two Uses for CGVI ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Interpretation of CGVI Levels CGVI Level  STUDY Action  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conversion of a CGVI Level to a NOTIONAL PRICE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CGVI 17 is Equilibrium Level ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CONVERT CGVI% to $ PRICE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Warning on the Use of CGVI in Relation to Prices ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Other Uses For CGVI + ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Independent Back-Testing Study using METASTOCK   shows ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Great Portfolio Builders High  CGVI +  Shares  Tend  To   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
HAVING A HIGH CGVI IS JUST NOT ENOUGH The Share Price Trend is Still A Most Important Indicator ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Best Source of Information is The Co’s. Annual Report
Even If  CGVI  is  HIGH   must Check   PRICE TREND NEVER BUY WHILE PRICE TRENDS DOWN National Australia Bank NAB
ION Ltd. Had  a  High CGVI  but Trend Gave a Warning
SFC Schaffer  Corporation Ltd A CGVI Find At $3.75 & CGVI = 50  ( was worth a Try) As High as $15.35 & CGVI= 21.07 This is Type of Share You may find very early Paid  $1.20 dividend pa for years, 2004 & 2005. PROFIT MAXIMISATION ~ OUT AT THE TOP FELL  to under $5. You  Need to Have  STOP LOSS Limit Ready dependant on your average cost.
Timing Is Important.  Remember:  Blue   over  Red  ~  Blue  over  Red  ~  Red  over  Blue  &  Green
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
14 Years Experience Shows Value of So Simple a Concept  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Happy Investing But Don’t Forget To Smell the ROSES   THE END
  Example  of a  ”CGVI Plus”  calculation and it’s usage on a Computer may follow. One word of caution is that anything displayed is not a recommendation to BUY nor Sell, It is a demonstration of what we can do with financial data in better understanding Share Investment.

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Analyzing shares using the Comparative Growth and Value Indicator (CGVI) method

  • 1. Rather than take notes all the information on this method is found on www.sharesguru.com/forum/index.php To Download copy of this presentation look for CGVI on http://www.lainie.com.au/sharesguru/index.html For latest CGVI figures, or screen for stock using CGVI: http:// www.sharefilter.com / * Email the addresses to a friend to help their Investing * C G V I Explained
  • 2.
  • 3. “ C G V I “ A “COMPARATIVE GROWTH & VALUE INDICATOR” FOR SELECTING SHARES “ If you can’t calculate a “CGVI” for a share then you are Speculating” A Jodi Robertson Scientific Business Slide Presentation
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. THE “CGVI” FORMULA EPSc + DPSc EPSc - DPSc CGVI % = ------------------ + ------------------ $ SHARE PRICE $ NTA Backing EPSc = Earnings Per Share in cents DPSc = Dividend Per Share in Cents $ NTA = Net Tangible Assets Backing Per Share $ Share Price. All data in Daily Financial review. Warning: If first part of calc is less than 9.3 or second part less than 7 then this share’s calcs may be suspect
  • 10.
  • 11. Using NAB National Bank as Example DATA: NAB $28.88 . DPSc 166 NTA$ 10.34 . EPSc 270 1. Add EPSc to DPSc & divide result by $ Share price. 2. From EPSc take DPSc and divide by $NTA 3. Add these two numbers to get a share’s CGVI. Step 1 270 + 166 = 436 divide by $ 28.88 = 15.09 Step 2 270 - 166 = 104 divide by $ 10.34 = 10.05 Step 3 CGVI = 15.09 + 10.05 = 25.14 Accumulate to Price of $ 43.90. BUT Check The Trend. CGVI of 25.1 equates to Optimum Buy Price of $ 31.30
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. New single Screen display of CVGI Calculations
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27. Even If CGVI is HIGH must Check PRICE TREND NEVER BUY WHILE PRICE TRENDS DOWN National Australia Bank NAB
  • 28. ION Ltd. Had a High CGVI but Trend Gave a Warning
  • 29. SFC Schaffer Corporation Ltd A CGVI Find At $3.75 & CGVI = 50 ( was worth a Try) As High as $15.35 & CGVI= 21.07 This is Type of Share You may find very early Paid $1.20 dividend pa for years, 2004 & 2005. PROFIT MAXIMISATION ~ OUT AT THE TOP FELL to under $5. You Need to Have STOP LOSS Limit Ready dependant on your average cost.
  • 30. Timing Is Important. Remember: Blue over Red ~ Blue over Red ~ Red over Blue & Green
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33. Happy Investing But Don’t Forget To Smell the ROSES THE END
  • 34. Example of a ”CGVI Plus” calculation and it’s usage on a Computer may follow. One word of caution is that anything displayed is not a recommendation to BUY nor Sell, It is a demonstration of what we can do with financial data in better understanding Share Investment.