The document discusses MISTER Personal Rapid Transit (PRT), a proposed transportation system. MISTER PRT uses lightweight, suspended pods that can travel on elevated tracks or at street level. It has a 3m turning radius and can navigate up to 45 degree gradients, allowing it to operate in hilly or constrained urban environments. MISTER PRT was conceived by Ollie Mikosza and a working prototype was demonstrated in 2007. Key attributes include a captive guideway to prevent derailment, static switching to reduce headway times, and distributed computing allowing scalability. MISTER pods are designed to carry up to five passengers or combinations of passengers and items like bicycles or wheelchairs.

1. ENDORSING PARTNERS
The Potential of MISTER
Personal Rapid Transit to
Sustain the Mobility and
Development of Modern
Communities
The following are confirmed contributors to the business and policy dialogue in Sydney:
•
Rick Sawers (National Australia Bank)
•
Nick Greiner (Chairman (Infrastructure NSW)
Monday, 30th September 2013: Business & policy Dialogue
Tuesday 1 October to Thursday, 3rd October: Academic and Policy
Dialogue
Presented by: Richard F. Di Bona, Independent Transport Planner, Hong
Kong
www.isngi.org
www.isngi.org

2. The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure
University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
The Potential of MISTER Personal
Rapid Transit to Sustain the
Mobility and Development of
Modern Communities
Richard F. Di Bona
Independent Transport Planner, Hong Kong, rfdibona@yahoo.com
Ollie Mikosza
President, MISTER Corporation, Auckland, o.mikosza@mist-er.com
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
2

3. Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Transport and Innovation
Challenges for Next Generation Infrastructure
Key Challenges for Public Transport
What is Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)?
What is MISTER Personal Rapid Transit?
Comparison of Cost Effectiveness
Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Conclusions
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
3

4. 1. Transport and Innovation
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
4

5. 1.1 Transport and Innovation
What is Meant by Innovation?
Two basic forms:
Incremental: piecemeal enhancement to existing
technologies or methods
 Improvements in the design or manufacture of cars,
trains, etc
Transformational: radical step-wise change, with
significant impacts on the broader economy
 The invention of railways, the motor car, radio
telecommunications, the internet, etc
Next generation surely means transformational
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
5

6. 1.3 Transport and Innovation
Transformational Innovation
Typically a number of improvements in different
technologies, combined creating something new
 Offers better methods than can be achieved by
individual, incremental improvements
 Lower costs (fixed and/or variable)
• Reduced CapEx and OpEx for transport infrastructure
 Higher benefits
• Better level-of-service and potential market penetration
 Better externalities than pre-existing solutions
• More (or greater) positive externalities
• Fewer (or smaller) negative externalities
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
7

7. 2. Challenges for Next
Generation Infrastructure
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
9

8. 2.1 Challenges for Next Generation Infrastructure
Next Generation Infrastructure: Challenges
 Be an agent of change for societal development
 Expanding population
 Increasing affluence
 But also serving the less affluent
 Increased demand/ need for mobility
 Constrained resources:
• Financial, Environmental and Space
 Support increasing liveability of communities
 Sustainable:
• Environmentally, Socially, Economically and Financially
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
10

9. 3. Challenges for
Public Transport
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
11

10. 3.1 Key Challenges for Public Transport
Challenges: The Motor Car
 The desirability of the motor car: from 1960-2002:
(Dargay, J., Gately, D. & Sommer, M. Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030, Energy Journal, 2007, Vol. 28, No. 4)
• Real income growth 2.0% p.a.
• Motorisation rate growth 4.6% p.a.
• Compound growth: 130% income; 560% motorisation
 Despite massive investments in public transport
• Usually requiring substantial CapEx and OpEx subsidies
 Demand management measures often unpopular
• Can also result in social exclusion
 Affects the viability of public transport investment
 Compromises policy objectives:
• Congestion, liveability, emissions, climate change, etc
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
12

11. 3.2 Key Challenges for Public Transport
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
13

12. 3.4 Key Challenges for Public Transport
Public Transport Trip: Strategic View
Origin
Destination
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
15

13. 3.5 Key Challenges for Public Transport
Journey Broken Down into Stages
Origin
Destination
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
Which is the weakest link?
(may vary by city/ area)
Do not overlook any stage!
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
16

14. 3.6 Key Challenges for Public Transport
PT User Issues: Accessibility
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
17

15. 3.7 Key Challenges for Public Transport
PT User Issues: Waiting
• Uncertainty: increases with interchange
• Comfort, safety, security of facilities
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
18

16. 3.8 Key Challenges for Public Transport
PT User Issues: Interchange
 How direct are routeing options?
 As cities expand more interchanges likely
Kuala Lumpur Sentral Station: 400
metres, not counting in-station
distance, one highway crossing
(direct route implemented 2012)
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
19

17. 3.9 Key Challenges for Public Transport
PT User Issues: Comfort, Crowding
•
•
•
•
Crowding
Comfort: getting a seat?
Temperature
Security
news.bbc.co.uk
www.straitstimes.com
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
news.com.au
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
20

18. 3.10 Key Challenges for Public Transport
PT User Issues: The Weather
• Too hot or sunny? Too cold?
• Too humid or wet? Too windy?
own photo
E-teachme.blogspot.com
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
www.telegraph.co.uk
www.telegraph.co.uk
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
21

19. 3.11 Key Challenges for Public Transport
Other PT User Issues
 Journey time reliability
• Street-running services caught up in congestion?
 Safety and security:
• Onboard and to/ from public transport
• Especially at night
• Crime-ridden areas
www.unblockcambridge.com
 With kids, shopping bags, mobility impaired?
 Pricing
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
22

20. 3.12 Key Challenges for Public Transport
Issues for Public Transport Operators
 Financial viability, possibly CapEx & OpEx subsidies
• Financial resources getting scarcer: rising interest rates?
 As cities grow
•
•
•
•
•
Increased route complexity
Interchange facilities are costly
Sprawl creates lower densities and hence lower demand
Profits decrease
Danger of legacy networks
 Trying to provide for a social need or trying to
persuade motorists out of their cars?
• Low cost versus high comfort
• Different criteria can be hard to meet simultaneously
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
23

21. 4. What is Personal Rapid
Transit?
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
24

22. 4.1 What is Personal Rapid Transit?
What is Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)?
Advanced Transit Association defines PRT as:
 Automated guideway transit system
 All stations are on bypasses
 Vehicles are designed for a single individual or small
group (family or friends) travelling together
 On a segregated network
 Trips are non-stop without transfers
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
25

23. 4.2 What is Personal Rapid Transit?
What does Personal Rapid Transit Offer?
 No travelling with strangers
 Stations can be spaced far more closely than metro
 Point-to-point journeys
• No transfers between lines needed (by the passenger)
 Likely quicker journeys (no intermediate stops)
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
26

24. 4.3 What is Personal Rapid Transit?
Examples of Personal Rapid Transit
Left: ULTra on test track
(First Generation PRT)
Right: Morganstown
system
(quasi-PRT since 1975)
(source: wikipedia)
Vectus on test track
(First Generation PRT)
(source: company website)
Visual rendering of MISTER
(Second Generation PRT)
(source: MISTER)
2getthere, Masdar,
Abu Dhabi
(First Generation PRT)
(source: company website)
Making the Di Bona of Public TransportPersonal Rapid Transit to Sustain the MobilityandDevelopment of Modern Communities
Richard F. Future The Potential of MISTER Intelligent, Responsive, Efficient and Personalised
Ollie Di Bona
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, UniversityConference 1-3 October 2013
Richard Mikosza
2nd Annual ITS India of Wollongong,
27

25. 4.4 What is Personal Rapid Transit?
First vs Second Generation PRT
First Generation PRT: e.g. ULTra, Vectus, 2getthere.
Heavy, supported track. Systems can either be:
 Wholly elevated (or tunnelled) guideway and stations:
expensive
 Street-running: space-take; conflicts with pedestrians
and roads
 Street stops & elevated track: significant space-take for
ramps
First Generation PRT relatively constrained by
topography (natural and man-made)
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
28

26. 4.5 What is Personal Rapid Transit?
First vs Second Generation PRT
Second Generation (MISTER). Lightweight,
suspended pods:
 Street-level stops with elevated track (size of bus stop)
 Saves space and cost, relative to traditional permanent
way systems and First Generation PRTs
MISTER can handle hilly and other constrained
environments:
 MISTER has a 3 metre turning radius
 Can handle gradients up to 45 degrees (up or down)
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
29

27. Typical Roles of Mass Transit
and Typical Issues Faced
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
30

28. 5.1 What is MISTER Personal Rapid Transit?
Metropolitan Individual System of
Transportation on Elevated Rail
 Brainchild of Ollie Mikosza; first patents filed in 2005
 1:1 full size working prototype demonstrated in Opole in 2007
 Successfully underwent comprehensive technical and economic
due diligence; awarded European Union High Technology Grant
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
31

29. 5.2 What is MISTER Personal Rapid Transit?
MISTER’s Key Attributes
In addition to lightweight, suspended design:
 Captive guideway: no possibility of de-railing
 Static, non-contact switching:
• Rail points do not move – saving time, reducing headway
• Stations and intersections can be inserted without changing
structure of existing tracks
 Distributed computing – readily scalable
 Plethora of sensors, monitoring systems, cameras:
• Preventing anti-social activities onboard and at stations
• Offers additional security in neighbourhoods along track
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
32

30. 5.3 What is MISTER Personal Rapid Transit?
Aboard MISTER
 Capacity for five people, or two with bicycles, those with
shopping bags, pushchairs, wheelchairs (level boarding)
 Cornering: swivel suspension means that no superelevation (cost) of track is required
 Freight pods available (max 400kg)
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
33

31. 5.4 What is MISTER Personal Rapid Transit?
Key Performance Metrics (1)
 Operating speed up to 70kph in urban environments:
• Assumed average speed approx. 55kph across full journey
• No stopping en route, so can be quicker than even metro
• Inter-urban speeds estimated at >100kph
 Power consumption averaging 5kW:
• Includes heating/aircon
• <2kW for level cruising (rail reduces friction)
• 15kW when on 45° climb
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
34

32. 5.5 What is MISTER Personal Rapid Transit?
Key Performance Metrics (2)
 US$5-10m per km of two-way track:
• Includes up to 8 x 5-bay stops (staggered on either side); and
• 100 pods per km
 Mainline capacity:
• approx. 7,500 passengers per hour per direction
• 1.5 pax/pod; 10-metre spacing, 55kph: higher possible
• Can have >1 tracks running parallel for less cost than LRT
 Boarding & alighting capacity:
• 1km of track: 2,700 boardings + 2,700 alightings per km per hour
• 1km grid:
5,400 boardings + 5,400 alightings per km2 per hour
• 500m grid: 10,800 boardings + 10,800 alightings per km2 per hour
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
35

33. 5.8 What is MISTER Personal Rapid Transit?
Possible Applications of MISTER
 As a transit service in its own right
 As a feeder to conventional mass transit:
• Requires less demand to be viable than metro, LRT, etc
• Can provide feeder services that do not get stuck in traffic
• Does not interfere with road traffic or pedestrian movements
 As a premium service relieving congested metro
 Can have dual-pricing strategies
• Integrated with metro, LRT for connecting journeys
• Higher fares when running parallel to metro
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
38

34. 6. Comparison of Cost
Effectiveness
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
39

35. 6.1 Comparison of Cost Effectiveness
MISTER versus 1st Generation PRT
First Generation
(ULTra, Vectus, 2getthere)
Heavy, Supported
Shallow Only
(ULTra: up 4.5°; down 2.8°)
Second Generation
(MISTER PRT)
Light, Suspended
Typical Cost per km for
two-way track
ULTra: US$6.6-17.3m
(track only)
Journey Speed
ULTra: Maximum 40kph
Headway
ULTra: minimum 3 seconds
ULTra: 6.4 seconds at Heathrow
2getthere: 4 seconds
US$5-10m
(includes stops and
100 pods per km)
Maximum 70kph
Typical 55kph
10 metres
(0.65 seconds
@55kph)
Capacity (passengers
per hour per direction)
ULTra: 1,200
7,500
Guideway Type
Gradients Handled
Source: ULTra website
45° up or down
(steeper possible)
(based on 3 second headway)
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
Richard F. Di Bona
Assuming 1.5 pax First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
per pod
Ollie Mikosza
The
40

36. 6.2 Comparison of Cost Effectiveness
MISTER versus Alternatives
Capital Costs
Capacity
Capacity
(passengers/ hour/direction) per US$m
(US$m/km)
System
Range
Say (A)
Range
Say (B)
(B) ÷ (A)
Heavy Metro $52–260m
$150m
30-90,000
60,000
375
Light Metro $39–91m
$70m
10-40,000
25,000
357
LRT
$13–91m
$50m
5-40,000
23,000
460
Tram
$6.5–32.5m
$20m
2.5-20,000
11,000
550
Monorail
$35–100m $67.5m
1-15,000
8,000
119
ULTra PRT $6.6–17.3m
$12m
1,200
1,200
100
MISTER PRT $5–10m
$7.5m
7,500
7,500
1,000
Typical ranges used, based upon the following data sources:
•
•
•
•
Scholtz-Knobloch Organizing New Light Rail Projects, Banekonference, Copenhagen 2012
Montassar DRAIEF-SYSTRA, cited in World Bank / Public Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility “Alternatives Analysis”
ULTra Website
MISTER
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
41

37. 7. Case Study of Opole:
Demand and Viability
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
42

38. 7.1 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Opole Case Study
 Provincial capital in southwest Poland
 Population ≈ 146,000, including tertiary students
 MISTER exhibited 1:1 working prototype in 2007
 Opole approved implementation of MISTER, subject
to MISTER raising finance
rvsci.us
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
wikipedia.org
MISTER
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
43

39. 7.2 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Opole Modelling
 917-zone EMME model: for closely-spaced stops
 Model developed on 2013 conditions
 Forecasts for 2015, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050
• Base, Conservative and Optimistic Cases
 MISTER Network:
• Core project of 4 phases, totalling 32.6km
• Two further phases also tested (extra 20.2km)
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
44

40. 7.3 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Opole Layout
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
mapa.zumi.pl Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
The First International
45

41. 7.4 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Opole Network (without MISTER)
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
46

42. 7.5 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Opole Network (without MISTER)
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
47

43. 7.6 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Opole Network (Phase 1: 8.4km)
Phase One:
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
8.4km
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
48

44. 7.7 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Opole Network (Phase 2: 9.1km)
Phase One:
Phase Two:
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
8.4km
9.1km
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
49

45. 7.8 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Opole Network (Phase 3: 9.0km)
Phase One:
Phase Two:
Phase Three:
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
8.4km
9.1km
9.0km
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
50

46. 7.9 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Opole Network (Phase 4: 6.2km)
Phase One:
8.4km
Phase Two:
9.1km
Phase Three:
9.0km
Phase Four:
6.2km
The
Personal
and Development of Modern Communities
Richard F. Di Bona
Total One-Four:ThePotential of MISTERSymposiumRapid Transit to Sustain the MobilityUniversity of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
32.6km
Ollie Mikosza
First International
on Next Generation Infrastructure,
51

47. 7.10 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Opole Network (Phase 5: 14.2km)
Phase One:
8.4km
Phase Two:
9.1km
Phase Three:
9.0km Phase Five:
14.2km
Phase Four:
6.2km
The
Personal
and Development of Modern Communities
Richard F. Di Bona
Total One-Four:ThePotential of MISTERSymposiumRapid Transit to Sustain the MobilityUniversity of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
32.6km
Ollie Mikosza
First International
on Next Generation Infrastructure,
52

48. 7.11 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Opole Network (Phase 6: 6.0km)
Phase One:
8.4km
Phase Two:
9.1km
Phase Three:
9.0km Phase Five:
14.2km
Phase Four:
6.2km Phase Six:
6.0km
The
Personal
Richard F. Di Bona
Total One-Four:ThePotential of MISTERSymposiumRapid Transit to Sustain the MobilityUniversity of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
32.6km Grand Total: Generation Infrastructure, and Development of Modern Communities
52.8km
Ollie Mikosza
First International
on Next
53

49. 7.12 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Opole Modelling Assumptions
Population
(incl. Tertiary Students)
Case
Base
Conservative
Optimistic
2020
147,000
145,000
149,000
Case
Base
MISTER
Speed
55kph
Conservative
Optimistic
50kph
60kph
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
2050
144,000
135,000
156,000
MISTER
Fare
Average Annual GDP Growth
over Period
2013-2020 2020-2030 2030-2050
2.39%
2.90%
1.71%
1.79%
2.17%
1.28%
2.98%
3.62%
2.13%
Bus & Train Fares
PLN3.40
Current fares retained
+0.34/km Bus: PLN2.60 /3.30 (1 or 2+boardings)
(US$1+0.1) Train: PLN3.57 (allowing for season tickets)
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
54

50. 7.14 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Key Financial Assumptions
Costs
Case
Certification
Depot
Base
Conservative
Optimistic
US$30m
US$30m
US$30m
US$15m
US$15m
US$15m
Case
Base
Conservative
Optimistic
Case
Base
Conservative
Richard F. Di Bona
Optimistic
Ollie Mikosza
Track per km
Timeframes (months)
Depot
Track
(2-way plus Stops
(concurrent (per km per
Certification with Phase 1)
crew)
& Pods)
US$8m
US$9m
US$7m
18
24
12
Ramp-Up Ramp-Up Annualisation Assumed
Amplitude Duration
Factor
Occupancy
50%
50%
40%
Phase 1
6 months
12 months
3 months
320 days
300 days
330 days
6
6
6
1
1.5
1
Staffing
Levels
Deadheading
1.5
20 +5/km
passengers @ PLN70k
per pod
p.a.
Construction Phasing (After Certification)
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
20% of
pod-km
Phase 6
1-7
8-12
13-16
17-19
20-24
25-27
1-11
12-18
19-23
24-27
28-35
36-39
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
56
1-7
8-12
13-16
17-19
20-24
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013 25-27

51. 7.15 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Year 2020 Base Case Daily Flows
With Phase One
Passengers per Day on Link
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
approx. 90,000 passenger-km/ day
8.4km network length
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
57

52. 7.16 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Year 2020 Base Case Daily Flows
With Phase Two
Passengers per Day on Link
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
approx. 190,000 passenger-km/ day
17.4km network length
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
58

53. 7.17 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Year 2020 Base Case Daily Flows
With Phase Three
Passengers per Day on Link
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
approx. 325,000 passenger-km/ day
26.5km network length
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
59

54. 7.18 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Year 2020 Base Case Daily Flows
With Phase Four
Passengers per Day on Link
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
approx. 405,000 passenger-km/ day
32.6km network length
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
60

55. 7.19 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Year 2020 Base Case Daily Flows
With Phase Five
Passengers per Day on Link
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
approx. 585,000 passenger-km/ day
46.8km network length
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
61

56. 7.20 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Year 2020 Base Case Daily Flows
With Phase Six
Passengers per Day on Link
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
approx. 625,000 passenger-km/ day
52.8km network length
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
62

57. 7.21 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Summary of Transport Impacts (2020)
PLN3.40+0.34/km fares
Base Case
Phases 1,2,3,4
Forecast Forecast
Phases 1 to 6
Impact
Forecast
Impact
Car
Average
Journey Time
(minutes)
82%
62%
-20%
52%
-30%
Non-Car
Mode Share
(%)
18%
38%
+20%
48%
+30%
Car
14.5
12.6
-1.9
11.3
-3.2
Non-Car
19.1
10.0
-9.1
9.2
-9.9
All
Passengers
15.3
11.7
-24%
10.3
-33%
438
347
-21%
291
-33%
258
190
-26%
153
-41%
Car Vehicle-km
(million p.a.)
Car Fuel Costs
(million PLN p.a.)
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
No PRT
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
63

58. 7.22 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Public Transport Impacts (2020)
PLN3.40+0.34/km fares
Base Case
Phases 1,2,3,4
Phases 1 to 6
Forecast
Average Fare Paid (PLN)
Average Walk Time
(minutes)
Average Waiting Time
(minutes)
Average In-Vehicle Time
(minutes)
Average Total Trip Time
(minutes)
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
No PRT
Forecast
Impact
Forecast
Impact
5.85
4.62
-21%
4.55
-22%
9.0
4.8
-47%
4.3
-52%
3.0
1.5
-48%
1.2
-58%
7.2
3.7
-48%
3.6
-49%
19.1
10.0
-48%
9.2
-52%
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
64

59. 7.23 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Financial Internal Rate of Return
PLN3.40 + 0.34 per km Fares
(US$1.00+0.10 per km); Base Case
Internal Rate of Return (%) by Case
Including System Certification
Phases
Total Length
Conservative
Base
Optimistic
1
8.4 km
4.6%
12.7%
23.6%
1,2
17.4 km
7.7%
16.6%
28.9%
1,2,3
26.5 km
9.7%
19.2%
32.0%
1,2,3,4
32.6 km
10.4%
19.6%
31.9%
1,2,3,4,5
46.8 km
10.1%
19.2%
31.2%
1,2,3,4,5,6
52.8 km
9.7%
18.4%
30.0%
Phases
Total Length
1,2,3,4
32.6 km
13.8%
28.1%
48.6%
1,2,3,4,5,6
52.8 km
11.6%
23.0%
39.6%
Excluding System Certification
Based on equity-financing: does not consider boosting IRR with debt-finance
Excludes any sales/ profit taxes and revenue sharing with city authorities
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
65

60. 7.24 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Cumulative Cashflow Forecast (PLNm)
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
Base Case with Fare: PLN3.40+0.34/km
Total CapEx = PLN1,040m (US$306m)
Cumulative Net Cashflow=PLN7,800m
(US$2,295m)
Phases 1 to 4; Including Certification
Payback in February 2022
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
-1,000
2014
0
-2,000
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
66

61. 7.25 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Financial IRR by Fare Level
Base Case
Network
Scenario
Phases
1,2,3,4
Phases
1 to 6
Fare per Boarding + Fare per km (US$1≈PLN3.40)
PLN1.70
Certification +0.17/km
PLN3.40
+0.34/km
PLN5.10
+0.51/km
PLN6.80
+0.68/km
Included
11.7%
19.6%
20.8%
16.8%
Excluded
16.7%
28.1%
28.9%
21.9%
Included
10.3%
18.4%
20.3%
17.4%
Excluded
12.9%
23.0%
24.9%
20.4%
 Shows that there is financial scope to increase fares
Based on equity-financing: does not consider boosting IRR with debt-finance
Excludes any sales/ profit taxes and revenue sharing with city authorities
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
67

62. 7.26 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Notes on Financial IRR
 Financial IRR only considers the financial scheme
returns from an investor-operator perspective
 Does not include wider economic benefits, such as:
• Journey time savings for cars, trucks, PT passengers
• Fuel and other vehicle operating costs savings (but do
include MISTER PRT operating and overhead costs)
• Reduction in vehicle emissions
• Impacts on property values from improved accessibility
• Value of landspace freed-up from providing car parks
 Assumes 100% equity financing
• IRR could be boosted by debt-financing
 Excludes sales/profit tax & revenue-sharing with city
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
68

63. 7.27 Case Study of Opole: Demand and Viability
Elasticity Analysis: Base Case
2020: Phases 1 to 4
Fare
3.40+0.34/km
1.70+0.17/km
5.10+0.51/km
6.80+0.68/km
(vs.5.10+0.51/km)
2020: Phases 1 to 6
Fare
3.40+0.34/km
1.70+0.17/km
5.10+0.51/km
6.80+0.68/km
(vs.5.10+0.51/km)
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
Pax-km
403,017
496,196
293,170
173,103
Pax-km
626,283
756,101
473,245
306,142
Daily Forecasts
Boardings Revenue (PLN)
168,543
710,071
215,177
450,155
116,008
741,159
65,055
560,083
Daily Forecasts
Boardings Revenue (PLN)
230,166
995,502
286,162
615,013
164,214
1,078,845
99,311
883,494
Elasticities
Pax-km Boardings
-0.46
-0.55
-0.55
-0.62
-1.23
-1.32
Elasticities
Pax-km Boardings
-0.41
-0.49
-0.49
-0.57
-1.06
-1.19
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
69

64. 8. Conclusions
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
72

65. 8.1 Conclusions
MISTER Meeting NGI’s Challenges
 Offers improved mobility for all
 Versus traditional permanent way systems and First
Generation PRT:
•
•
•
•
Less space-take
Cheaper (CapEx and OpEx)
Convenient access
No interference with road traffic or pedestrian severance
 Financially viable: just requires Right Of Way
 Substantial environmental benefits
 Transformational, meeting the challenges for NGI
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
73

66. 8.2 Conclusions
MISTER Qualifies as Transformational
MISTER:
 Offers better outcomes than incremental
improvements to existing public transport
 Lower costs (fixed and variable)
• Reduced CapEx and OpEx
 Higher benefits
• Better level-of-service and potential market penetration
 Better externalities than pre-existing solutions
• More (or greater) positive externalities
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
74

67. 8.3 Conclusions
Thank You
Any other queries? Feel free to contact me:
rfdibona@yahoo.com
Thank You!
Richard F. Di Bona
Ollie Mikosza
The Potential of MISTER Personal Rapid Transit to Sustain the Mobility and Development of Modern Communities
The First International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure, University of Wollongong, 1-3 October 2013
75