1. Liquidity Management:
Driving Advanced Execution Past Algorithms
Presented by
Larry Tabb
Founder & CEO
TABB Group
SIFMA – Technology Management Conference
New York
June 19-21, 2007
2. Agenda
What is liquidity management?
Why do we need it?
How does it work?
Why bother?
What are the challenges?
Conclusions
2
3. Liquidity management
The math and technology around the
appropriate handling of
Customer orders,
Liquidity
provisioning, and
The management
of firm-wide risk
and capital
3
4. Hunh?
A broker helps others manage risk
By selling risk exposure or mitigation
Brokers do this on an
Agency basis
Getting products directly from others and marking them up, or
Principle basis
Selling products out of inventory that has been pre-stocked
The pricing of this risk is determined by
The Market
Risk exposure
Counterparty, Credit, Market, Liquidity, and operational
Current, projected, and optimal
4
5. Liquidity management is the management of
order flow, capital, and risk
How do we manage customer agency order flow?
What is our counterparty risk?
How do I provide risk exposure/mitigation to our client?
Is there liquidity in the market?
How do I get it?
Do we need to provide capital?
How do we price it?
How does this impact the desk and the firm?
What is the desk’s risk?
What do we want it to be?
How do we get there?
What is the firm’s risk?
What do we want it to be?
How do we get there?
5
7. Finding liquidity in an electronic world can be
frustrating
Traditionally, trading decisions were made by a trader
Today, more flow is electronic
Equity order size has decreased to about 350 shares per trade
There are more market centers than ever that are “more
accessible”
The tease factor is high
Brokers are making their liquidity electronically accessible but…
Connecting is a challenge
Liquidity is dark
Commissions are falling and firms are looking closely at cost
7
8. Bundled/High touch order flow continues to
decline as more flow directed to e*channels
Shares by execution venue (share weighted) 2 Year CAGR
47%
Sales Desk -12%
36%
Program 9%
5%
Desk 10%
Direct To 14%
13%
Exchange 18%
21%
Algorithms 7%
24%
Crossing 9%
15%
Network 12%
2006
Source: TABB Group “Institutional Equity Trading 2006
2008 8
9. While exchanges talk of consolidation,
fragmentation is a more appropriate discussion
Firms With More Than 2 Investments in Alternative Venues
LeveL
CBSX
BATS
BIDS
Boat
Turq
BOX
Phlx
NSX
CSX
BSE
ISX
Credit Suisse – 9
Citigroup – 9
Merrill Lynch – 7
Morgan Stanley – 6
UBS – 5
Bear Stearns – 4
Deutsche Bank – 4
Goldman Sachs – 4
Lehman Brothers – 4
Interactive Brokers – 3
JP Morgan Chase – 4
Knight Capital – 3
Bank of America – 2
Citadel – 2
E*Trade – 2
Fidelity – 2
Van Der Moolen – 2
Total Investments 10 6 6 4 4 4 8 7 12 5 13 7 9
10. Dark pools & crossing nets are fragmenting as
at least 37+ are in or near production in US
Nasdaq End of Day Cross Open Intraday
Arca Opening Cross
NYSE MatchPoint
ISE MidPoint Match
ITG Posit Match Posit Now Block Alert Merrill
Instinet VWAP Cross Intraday End of Day Continuous
NYFIX Millennium Natural
Liquidnet Liquidnet H20
Pipeline Pipeline
Merrill MLXN AXP (Algo Cross)
Goldman Sigma X
Morgan Stanley Trajectory Crossing Pool
Credit Suisse Cross Finder
UBS PIN
BIDS
CitiGroup Liquifi
Citadel Ex Svs Citigroup,
Citadel
LCX Goldman Sachs, LeveL
Lehman
Liquidity Ping
Lehman Brothers,
ATD Merrill Lynch, Citigroup,
Knight Knight Match
Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers,
State Street Lattice
UBS, Credit Suisse, Merrill Lynch,
Fidelity CrossStream
Bear, BofA, Deutsche, Credit Suisse ,
ConvergEx ConvergEx Cross
JPMorgan, Knight Fidelity Brokerage
Bloomberg BlockHunter
Pulse BlockCross 10
Source: TABB Group, Companies, Fidelity Capital Markets
11. The choice of liquidity pools is challenging at
best
Crossing Networks
Exchanges ECNs
Negotiation Broker - DarkPools
NASDAQ BATS ATD
BIDS
NYSE Citadel
DirectEdge Liquidnet
ARCA Call Markets Citi Liquifi
AMEX LavaFlow Instinet CrossFinder
BSE Nasdaq KnightMatch
TrackECN
Chicago MatchPoint LavaATS
NSX TradeBook POSITCross MS Pool
PHLX Continuous – Blind SigmaX
BlockAlert
UBS PIN
Dark Orders H20 Transition Platforms
Derivative
LeveL Lattice
Exchanges NASDAQ
CBSX Millennium Hybrid
ARCA
ISE POSITNow ConvergEx
BATS Pipeline
11
12. With more venues and dark pools the trading
process has become more complex
New Buy-Side Order Flow Process
Portfolio Buy-Side Yes
Manager Orders Buy-side only
Trader Xing Network
Can I
Find Buy / Sell-side
Natural? Negotiation
Yes
Can I No Networks
Specific No
Add Yes
Broker Dark Algo
Value? Dark
Liquidity
Time/Price Small Footprint
Algorithm Algos
No Yes
Displayed
No To
liquidity Algos
Market
Aggregation
Out of
Options Broker Capital
12
13. On the fixed income side no one even talks the
same language - a host of models exist
Retail Bond Distributon Platforms
Brokerage Accounts
eg. BondDesk & ValueBond
Brokers Brokers
Individual Investors Mutual funds Bid/Offer Real-time markets
& SMAs Eg, Brokertec, EuroMTS & eSpeed
Institutional RFQ Platforms
Brokers Brokers
Eg. TradeWeb, MarketAxess, & Reuters Inter-dealer
Brokers
Single Dealer System
Eg, ML, GS, BARX…
Brokers
FIX for FI Protocol Brokers
Institutional
Eg. Lehman & Charles River
Investors
Underwriting Systems Brokers Brokers
Eg, Bloomberg & Ipreo
Corporations Treasury & Corp Finance 13
15. First aspect – managing agency customer
order flow – in most firms this is done
Institution Broker
Feed Handler
Feed Handler
Portfolio Mgt Exchanges
Exchanges
Algorithmic Exchanges
Exchanges
System Algorithmic Exchanges
Flow
Flow
Event Stream ECNs
Exchanges
Order Mgt Exchanges
Exchanges
Processor
System
Time Series
Database
Execution Mgt
Dark Pools
System Order
Credit Risk Generator Negotiation
Negotiation
Order Call Markets
Call Markets
Staging
Continuous
Exchanges
Exchanges
Order Exchanges
Exchanges
DMA
Router
Agency Internal
Block Dark Pool
15
16. The next is managing capital, this is much
harder
Market
Counter-party Data
Risk
Desk
Positions Marginal Desk
Risk
Position
Needing
Consolidated
Capital Marginal
Desk Positions
Enterprise
Positions Risk
Marginal Desk
Risk
Valuation
Engine
16
17. All together you have a comprehensive way to
manage order flow and capital
Liquidity Management
Pricing / Valuation
Market
Data
Proprietary
Trading
Exchange Principal Capital
Business
Automated Market
Making
ECN
Internal
External Matching Capital Trades
Dark Pool / Engine
Crossing Network
DMA/Order Sales Desk
Routing
Agency
Business
Algorithms Customer
Order Flow
17
19. Industry is increasingly global & more complex as
foreign markets have outperformed the US
China
India
Korea
DAX
Japan
HK
CAC
FTSE
S&P
19
20. Traditional funds are beginning to push the
envelope as they launch alternative products
Institutional managers launching hedge Institutional managers planning
funds (2006) on launching hedge funds by ‘08
Yes
Large 54%
17%
Medium 40%
Small 35% No
83%
Source: TABB Group “Institutional Equity Trading In America 2006” 20
21. Derivatives business expanding at record levels
with no end in sight
US Derivatives Contracts Traded
(in millions) 2,537
1 Year
32.3%
Growth Rates
11 Year
CAGR 26.6%
1,917
21.1%
25.4%
1,514
20.5%
1,207
7yr CAGR 18.4% 1,002
888
790
555
380 449
308 317
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: Options Clearing Corporation, Futures Industry Association 21
22. Quest for alpha is greater today than ever
before
Greater competition for returns
Development of leveraged funds (120/20s)
More creative ways to manage exposures
Significant push to manage across asset
classes
Hedge funds driving coverage teams
Risk and technology platforms need to follow suit
Coverage teams need greater coordination and
education
22
23. Increased leverage of firm’s capital generate
greater returns, but at increased risk levels
Major brokers’ ’06 revenue stream segmented by commissions and trading profits
66%
59% 60%
53%
50%
35% 35%
27% 25% 24%
15% 14% 15%
12%
8%
Merrill Lynch Lehman Goldman Credit Suisse Morgan
Brothers Sachs Stanley
Commissions Trading Profits Other
23
24. Commission pressure has forced firms to focus
on electronic channels
Average per share costs (pennies) % Decrease ’05 to ‘06
Sales 4.00¢
-4.0%
Desk 3.85¢
Program 2.20 ¢
-21.0%
Desk 1.74¢
Crossing 1.80 ¢
1.62 ¢ -10.0%
Network
Direct to 1.70¢
-28.0%
Exchange 1.22 ¢
1.90¢
Algorithms -38.0%
1.17¢
2005 2006
Source: TABB Group “Institutional Equity Trading 2006 24
26. Existing siloed infrastructure makes it
challenging to manage risk in real-time
Brokerages have typically organized by product
Trading, sales and support
Operations and reporting structures
IT architectures
Front-end and client-facing technologies
However, things are changing
Management is becoming more cross product
Products becoming more global
Trading becoming more horizontally integrated
Sales and support becoming more horizontal
26
27. Data and enterprise risk management
challenges make real-time analysis difficult
Data management
Lack of clean and reliable data make valuation
challenging
Especially in illiquid, complex, and challenging derivatives
positions
This is where clean data is most needed
Risk Management
The complexity of running enterprise risk valuations or
complex portfolio valuations using Monte Carlo
simulations is very calculation-dependent
Challenging for even (especially) the largest firms to do
this in real-time
27
28. Liquidity management allows for more efficient
use of capital
Agency flow will be more efficiently and effectively
routed
The more automated the routing and execution the lower
the cost
Leaving only the most difficult orders to be manually
handled
Orders that need or would be advantaged by
principal would be more effectively
Highlighted, priced, and managed
Risk on the desk, floor and business will be more
effectively managed as limits, positions, and hedges
could be more effectively managed, changed, and
monitored
28
29. Conclusions
Electronic trading has not hit its peak
Equity side is mostly agency
The OTC side is mostly principle
The challenge is marrying these two models
Liquidity Management will help firms strategically
Manage order flow
Analyze and transfer risk
Price capital
Hedge positions
While firms are starting down this path, the road is
long and will be met by data, organizational, and
technology roadblocks
29
30. Liquidity Management:
Driving Advanced Execution Past Algorithms
Presented by
Larry Tabb
Founder & CEO
TABB Group
SIFMA – Technology Management Conference
New York
June 19-21, 2007