1. 2012
ECONOMIC AND
POLITICAL
ANALYSI TUTOR:
ANDRES FALQUEZ
Camila Burbano,
Mariuxi
Castro,Leonidas
Yagcha,Juan Xavier
Gutierrez
[COLOMBIA –
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS]

2. INDEX
1. BACKGROUND OF COLOMBIA
2. ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2.1 SALLARY
2.2 REMITTENCES
2.3 DEBT
2.4 GDP
2.5 COLOMBIA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
2.6 GOVERNMENT BUDGET
2.7 REVENUES
2.8 INTEREST
2.9 COLOMBIA EMERGING MARKET BOND
2.10 INFLATION COLOMBIA (2006 – 2011)
2.11 EXPENSES OF COLOMBIA BUDGET
2.12 PRIVATE LOANS COLOMBIA
2.13 PURCHASING POWER PARITY
2.14 SUBSIDIES
2.15 DEBT
3. APPENDIX
4. REFERENCES

3. 1. BACKGROUND
Colombia officially the Republic of Colombia, is a unitary constitutional
republic comprising thirty-two departments. The country is located in
northwestern South America, bordered to the northwest by Panama; to the
north by the Caribbean Sea; to the east by Venezuelaand Brazil to the south
by Ecuador and Peru, and to the west by the Pacific Ocean. Colombia is
the 26th largest country by area and the fourth largest in South America after
Brazil, Argentina and Peru. With over 46 million people, Colombia is the 27th
largest country in the world by population and has the second largest population
of any Spanish-speaking country in the world, after Mexico. Colombia is
a middle power, and is now the fourth largest economy in Latin America, and
the third largest in South America. Colombia produces coffee, flowers,
emeralds, coal, and oil. These products comprise the primary sector of the
economy
Soon after, Colombia achieved a relative degree of political stability, which
was interrupted by a bloody conflict that took place between the late 1940s and
the early 1950s, a period known as La Violencia.
From 1953 to 1964 the violence between the two political parties decreased first
when Gustavo Rojas deposed the President of Colombia in a coup d'état and
negotiated with the Guerrillas, and then under the military junta of
General Gabriel ParísGordillo.
After Rojas' deposition, the Colombian Conservative Party and
Colombian Liberal Party agreed to create the "National Front", a coalition which
would jointly govern the country. Under the deal, the presidency would alternate
between conservatives and liberals every 4 years for 16 years; the two parties
would have parity in all other elective offices. Despite the progress in certain
sectors, many social and political problems continued, and guerrilla groups
were formally created such as the FARC, ELN and M-19 to fight the
government and political apparatus.

4. In 2002 vilonce in Colombia will change. Alvaro Uribe was elected
president and He would not forgive the guerrillas for all the damage they have
done. He started with an aggressive judicial policy against crimes, guerillas and
drug cartels.
His security program was based on a policy of democratic security, aiming to:
gradually restore police presence in all
municipalities
increase judicial action against crimes of high
social impact,
strengthen public institutions
reduce human rights violations
dismantle terrorist organizations (specially armed
rebel groups, the main one is the FARC-EP),
reduce kidnappings and extortion
reduce homicide levels
prevent forced displacement and facilitating the
return of forcefully-displaced people
continue to fight the illegal drug trade through
interdiction, eradication and judicial action.
In 2004, 50% of homicides, kidnaps, drug cartels decreased. The first
time in the history of Colombia.
2. ECONOMIC INDICATORS

5. 2.1 SALLARY
In Colombia since 2004 Sallaries in Colombia has been raised around 5%
per year. In the current year the minimum wage is USD354 with a subsidy of
around USD25 in transportation. In the graph of sallary we can see how the line
is increasing with the time passing.
BENNEFIT USD
Transportation (if earn less $25
than 2 minimum sallaries
PAY ROLL 9% of nominal sallary
CONTRIBUTION: Family
subsidy bureau, Sena and
the Colombian Family
Welfare Institute
Vacations 15 workingdays
2 Bounuses 15 days salary each. June
and December
2.2 REMITTENCES
Colombia armed conflict has caused a high emigration to other countries. In
1999 the financial crisis made Colombians go live overseas. Around 3.378.345
of Colombians live overseas. In 2010 remittances were about US$4.023
millions. Most of the population is living in Venezuela. This represents the 45%
of the population. Then we have USA and Ecuador.
In south America, the majority of Colombian migrants were found in
neighboring countries. In Venezuela and Ecuador. Colombian migration to
Venezuela started on large scale in 1970´s because of the high demand of
labor thanks to the oil boom.

6. In North America the majority of Colombians are found in USA. In Erope
approximately half of Colombian migrants are in Spain. Then in UK and finally in
Italy.
2.3 DEBT
2.3.1 Colombia Government External Debt
Government External Debt in Colombia increased to -76.39 COP Billion in
July of 2012 from -120.71 COP Billion in June of 2012, according to a report
released by the Banco De La Republica, Colombia. Historically, from 1995 until
2012, Colombia Government External Debt averaged 241.86 COP Billion
reaching an all-time high of 3449.87 COP Billion in July of 2011 and a record
low of -3130.97 COP Billion in April of 2005.
2.4 GDP
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Colombia was worth 331.66 billion
US dollars in 2011, according to a report published by the World Bank. The
GDP value of Colombia is roughly equivalent to 0.53 percent of the world
economy. Historically, from 1960 until 2011, Colombia GDP averaged 65.76
Billion USD reaching an all time high of 331.66 Billion USD in December of
2011 and a record low of 4.04 Billion USD in December of 1960. The gross
domestic product (GDP) measures of national income and output for a given
country's economy. The gross domestic product (GDP) is equal to the total
expenditures for all final goods and services produced within the country in a
stipulated period of time. This page includes a chart with historical data for
Colombia GDP.
2.5 Colombia Unemployment Rate

7. The unemployment rate in Colombia was last reported at 9.9 percent in
September of 2012. Historically, from 2001 until 2012, Colombia Unemployment
Rate averaged 12.5 Percent reaching an all-time high of 17.9 Percent in
January of 2002 and a record low of 9.0 Percent in October of 2011. The
unemployment rate can be defined as the number of people actively looking for
a job as a percentage of the labor force.
INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT
The phenomenon of informality has been worked through different forms
of measurement. From a business approach, the production units may belong
to the formal sector or informal, according to their tax characteristics, legislative,
accounting or size of establishment. Since the focus of employment, we review
the characteristics, according to receiving social benefits (vacations, bonuses,
etc..), its social security coverage in health and pension.
The definition adopted by the DANE, for the measurement of informal
employment refers to the 1993 OIT resolution of and DELHI group's
recommendations, which are taken from elements that meet labor market
conditions Colombian. As an approach to a definition of informal employment
variables are integrated establishment size and occupational status. Thus as
employedinclude informal:
Individual employees and workers who work in establishments,
businesses or enterprises employing up five people in all agencies and
branches, including the employer and / or member;
Unpaid family workers or unpaid workers in companies or businesses
other households who work in establishments, business enterprises
employing up to five people;
Day laborers or laborers who work in establishments, businesses or
enterprises employing up five people;
The bosses or employers in companies with five employees or less;
excluded are workers or government employees.
Manizales (45.2%), Bogotá DC (47.3%) and Medellin A.M

8. 2.6 Colombia Government Budget
Colombia reported a Government Budget deficit equal to 2.90 percent of
the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2011. Historically, from 2001 until
2011, Colombia Government Budget averaged -3.95 Percent of GDP reaching
an all-time high of 0.23 Percent of GDP in December of 2005 and a record low
of -8.47 Percent of GDP in December of 2004. Government Budget is an
itemized accounting of the payments received by government (taxes and other
fees) and the payments made by government (purchases and transfer
payments). A budget deficit occurs when an government spends more money
than it takes in. The opposite of a budget deficit is a budget surplus.
2.7 Revenues: excluding grants (% of GDP) in Colombia
The Revenue; excluding grants (% of GDP) in Colombia was last reported at
18.20 in 2010, according to a World Bank report published in 2012. Revenue is
cash receipts from taxes, social contributions, and other revenues such as
fines, fees, rent, and income from property or sales. Grants are also considered
as revenue but are excluded here. Colombia is a free market economy with
major commercial and investment ties to the United States. Transition from a
highly regulated economy has been underway for more than 15 years.
Colombia's average annual economic growth rate of over 5% from 2002 to 2007
can be attributed to an increase in domestic security, resulting in greater foreign
investment; prudent monetary policy; and export growth.
2.8 Deposit interest rate (%) in Colombia
The Deposit interest rate (%) in Colombia was last reported at 3.66 in 2010,
according to a World Bank report published in 2012. Deposit interest rate is the
rate paid by commercial or similar banks for demand, time, or savings deposits.
Colombia is a free market economy with major commercial and investment ties
to the United States. Transition from a highly regulated economy has been
underway for more than 15 years. Colombia's average annual economic growth
rate of over 5% from 2002 to 2007 can be attributed to an increase in domestic

9. security, resulting in greater foreign investment; prudent monetary policy; and
export growth.
2.9 Inflation Colombia (2006 – 2011)
Between October 2006 and September 2007 we conducted the Survey of
Income and Expenditure in the Great macro Integrated Household Survey, with
coverage of 42,733 homes for the 24 major cities, which to calculate changes in habits
consumption and expenditure structure of the Colombian population. With the results of
this survey, under the work of an interdisciplinary group of experts and the advice of
the statistical agency of Canada, is developing a new methodology for calculating the
CPI, which is applied from January 2009. Created a new basket with a two-tier
structure, one fixed and one flexible, which allows you to update the basket of goods
and services, changes in final consumption in a relatively. In addition to expanding the
basket, the new IPC-08 expanded its geographical coverage to 24 cities.
With inflation 2011 and closed, we can make a future projection. For example in
2011 the family basket of Colombians was increased by 3.73%, while the increase for
those who earn the minimum wage real progress was made 1.45 points. This, as the
minimum increase was 5.8%, while price increases for low socioeconomic population
were 4.35% in the year. The truth is that the minimum has gained purchasing power in
the last decade. At the end of 2000, amounted to 485,000 pesos today. This means
that, at current prices, those who earn the minimum today have a purchasing power of
more than 82,000 pesos in 2000. The price increase for the entire population was 0.56
percentage points higher than in the previous year (3.17%) and higher than expected
by analysts, who estimated it at 3.5%.
For upper class families, the inflation rate was 2.7%, while for the middle
stratum of the index was 3.63%, Among other things, we must not forget to maintain
the interest rate at 4.25% intervention, as the economy continues to show "signs of
strengthening fueled by consumer confidence and strengthening business investment."
Following important data, the minimum wage is set at 2012 $ 566,700, resulting in a
rise of 5.8% in relation to the minimum wage of 2011. From 1 January 2012 the
minimum wage will increase from $ 535,600 to $ 566,700. Therefore, the 18.1 million
Colombians who earn the minimum wage receive 31,100 pesos.

10. 2.10 Colombia Emerging Market Bond
The emerging market debt capped a good solid month with a weaker tone on
while bond prices fell again as investors showed doubts about taking more risky
assets. Fears over the outlook for the global economy affected the market sentiment as
for most of the month. A series of gloomy economic indicators published in the United
States set the tone for trading during the period. The risk premium as measured by the
Index Bond Global Emerging Markets JP Morgan a yield around 2.28% in the month.
The premium on the index widened to 325 basis points or 3.25 percentage points over
Treasurys U.S., having started the month around 300 basis points. Values highly rated
countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Malaysia and Indonesia recorded modest gains in
the month while traditionally riskier investments like bonds of Venezuela and Argentina
recorded declines in prices in the month.
The emerging markets index (EMBI +) tracks the total return of the bonds of
emerging market debt. Instruments include Brady Bonds denominated in foreign
currency, loans and Eurobonds, while local dollar-denominated instruments. The EMBI
+ is mainly concentrated in the three instruments of major Latin American countries
(Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), reflecting the size and liquidity of these markets
external debt. The non-Latin countries are represented in the index by Bulgaria,
Morocco, Nigeria, Philippines, Poland, Russia and South Africa. The instruments of the
EMBI + must be at least $ 500 million of debt outstanding.
Know that the Issuer reiterated that this year end inflation target of 3%. In
December last year the cost of living index was at 3.7% voids and now stands at
around 3%, so it could end the year in this figure. According to Uribe, the number of
IPC helps avoid fluctuations in production and is consistent with monetary policy that
seeks objective inflation and exchange rate flexibility. Regarding the complaint of
employers who call for greater intervention in the dollar market (going from 20 to 40
million dollars a day), to curb the appreciation and said that eight years have tripled
reserve levels.
2.11 Expenses of Colombia Budget
2006:
The Budget Act of 2006 was signed by President Alvaro Uribe Velez, for a total
of 105.4 billion pesos. The government's goals for next year are optimistic and

11. ambitious; it shows an increase of 13%, which contrasts with the 5% most optimistic
figures of the country's economic growth this year. Of total revenue and resources
planned for 2006, 45.4 billion correspond to capital resources of the nation, such as
asset disposals, surplus, financial yields foreign and domestic credit. Income of public
facilities is 10.1 trillion, and special fund revenues are 4.5 Billion parafiscal.
The Budget 2006 developed 11 key points: The 2006 budget consolidates a
responsible fiscal policy, consolidates democratic security includes increased
resources for social programs, budget focuses resources in grants to improve the
situation of poverty and destitution of the poor population, meets the pensioners and
pension obligations, Budget strengthens democracy, The 2006 budget consolidates
justice, The 2006 budget favors investment in infrastructure, 2006 budget meets
government officials in wages, The 2006 budget favors investment, $ 13 billion, 4.3% of
GDP, The 2006 budget guarantees the timely execution of the debt service.
2008:
The initiative, which happens to sanction by President Alvaro Uribe, is called
"Security and Trust for Social Development", and has a total of 125 billion 700
thousand pesos. The Congress approved the 2008 budget draft entitled "Security and
Trust for Social Development" for a total of 125.7 billion pesos. The 2008 budget is a
clear and transparent budget which includes an unprecedented breakthrough for the
country's economic and social development. The project will first strengthen the
democratic security policy, and second, to maintain investor confidence in the country
and this means economic growth and employment, and third, to promote an agenda of
ambitious social development for the country.
The total amount approved by 125.7 billion dollars, 64.5 billion will be operating
costs where more than 70 percent are transfers that the Government turn regions to be
invested in education, health and drinking water and basic sanitation and general
purposes. Other 39.1 billion pesos will be sent to the service and the amortization of
debt capital, similar amount budgeted in 2007.And as for the starting amount for
investment was 21.9 billion pesos, representing a growth of 13 percent over the
previous year and maintains the proportion of gross domestic product, as required by
the Constitution.
2009:

12. President Alvaro Uribe signed the Budget Law for 2009, amounting to 140
billion 494 billion pesos. This figure of 140.5 billion is higher by 13.1 percent compared
to 2008, which is 124.2 billion, after 1.5 billion cuts ordered by the Government. The
three big budget items are: Operation, to be a game of 73.5 billion, debt service, with
37 billion, and investment, with 29.9 billion pesos, the presidency said in a statement.
In operation, the change from the 2008 budget is 14.4 percent, accounted for 11.5
percent increase in allocations for personnel expenses, and 7.2 percent in overhead
costs, due to higher staff costs Justice, the increase in the plant of the Attorney
General, the National Prison Institute (INPEC), and the laws of Childhood, and Justice
and Peace, among others.
Also increased 14.2 percent in the General System of Units (GSP) for regional
authorities, and higher costs of 20.3 percent in the payment of monthly pensions to
retirees. In the category of Other Transfers growth of 10.4 percent, sustained through
payment and acknowledgment of contingencies and judgments by 3.2 billion pesos.
With respect to the Debt Service is a decrease of 4.8 percent, mainly due to lower
depreciation will have to make. Investment is an increase of 42.2 percent. The bulk of
the resources of this area are aimed at a more competitive infrastructure being
implemented throughout the country, departmental water plans and promotion
communications, agriculture, industry and trade.
2010:
Alvaro Uribe's government privatization provides $ 695 million for next year.
Colombia presented the Government's expenditure budget of 2010 for a value of 148.3
billion pesos (U.S. $ 73,641,000), representing an increase of 7% compared with that
for 2009. The project, to be submitted to Congress for approval, provides for
privatization by 1.4 billion pesos in 2010 ($ 695 million), among which are the sales of
the energy distribution of Boyacá and Meta, as well as Gecelca generator. Are
projected defense spending and security totaling 21.12 billion pesos (U.S. $ 10.487
million), accounting for 14.2% of the total budget and the third largest with more weight
behind the debt service and social protection.
2011:
The 2011 expenditure budget by about 4 billion pesos (U.S. $ 2,154 million),
within the state of emergency decreed to address the tragedy caused by rains, sources
said Tuesday market. The addition to the budget will be covered by the sale of shares

13. in state oil company Ecopetrol for about 1.5 billion pesos (U.S. $ 807.8 million) this
year, while the remaining resources will be obtained with higher taxes that the
government decreed last month, within the state of emergency.
The government dismissed the additional issue of domestic or foreign debt to
cover the largest amount of the budget, originally graduated in 147.3 billion pesos (U.S.
$ 79,330 million), the government announced the extension to more people from
paying an estate tax and the extension of a tax on financial transactions to raise 5.3
billion pesos (U.S. $ 2,854 million) between 2011 and 2014 for meet the emergency
caused by the rains. Within the state of emergency the government authorized the sale
of up to 10% of Ecopetrol, share valued at about 17 billion pesos (U.S. $ 9,155 million).
2.12 Private Loans Colombia:
Colombian banks are selling the most peso bonds in at least five years to
finance a lending boom amid the fastest economic growth since 2007. Colombian
Banks are among that led a 32 percent jump in Colombian lenders’ bond sales in the
first nine months of the year to 5.04 trillion pesos ($2.5 billion). Private bank lending
rose 29 percent in Colombia in August of 2011, compared with 20 percent in Brazil and
12 percent in Mexico. The economy is doing well and people and companies remain
optimistic about future growth, leading to this surge in lending Loan growth has fueled
the biggest jump in retail sales in more than a decade and faster-than-expected
inflation
Those results are making Colombia one of the most important Latin American
countries where traders expect interest-rate increases this year. While policy makers
left the key rate unchanged today at 4.5 percent for a third month, Colombia Economy
are lending fuel growth of as much as 6.5 percent in Latin America’s fifth-largest
economy, which would be up from 4.3 percent in 2010. Inflation accelerated to 3.73
percent in September, compared with the 3.43 percent median estimate, The central
bank is targeting inflation of between 2 percent and 4 percent this year. Deposits in
private banks grew 20 percent in August from a year ago compared with 29 percent
growth in loans outstanding, Bonds placed by lenders in Colombia account for 83
percent of the 6.1 trillion pesos issued.

14. 2.13 Purchasing Power Parity
A nation's GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates is the
sum value of all goods and services produced in the country valued at prices
prevailing in the United States. In the graph that follows we can see the rising
trend of the GDP at purchasing power parity.
PPP GDP is gross domestic product converted to international dollars
using purchasing power parity rates. An international dollar has the same
purchasing power over GDP as the U.S. dollar has in the United States. GDP is
the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any
product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the
products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of
fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data
are in current international dollars.
GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP). PPP GDP is
gross domestic product converted to international dollars using purchasing
power parity rates. An international dollar has the same purchasing power over
GDP as the U.S. dollar has in the United States. GDP at purchaser's prices is
the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any
product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the
products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of
fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data
are in current international dollars.
2.14 Subsidies
Subsidies, grants, and other social benefits include all unrequited,
nonrepayable transfers on current account to private and public enterprises;
grants to foreign governments, international organizations, and other
government units; and social security, social assistance benefits, and employer
social benefits in cash and in kind.
2.14 Debt
Debt is the entire stock of direct government fixed-term contractual
obligations to others outstanding on a particular date. It includes domestic and
foreign liabilities such as currency and money deposits, securities other than
shares, and loans. It is the gross amount of government liabilities reduced by
the amount of equity and financial derivatives held by the government. Because

15. debt is a stock rather than a flow, it is measured as of a given date, usually the
last day of the fiscal year.Present value of debt is the sum of short-term external
debt plus the discounted sum of total debt service payments due on public,
publicly guaranteed, and private nonguaranteed long-term external debt over
the life of existing loans. Data are in current U.S. dollars.
Real interest rate is the lending interest rate adjusted for inflation as
measured by the GDP deflator.

16. 3. APPENDIX
800 REMESA PROMEDIO POR PRINCIPALES PAÍSES DE ORIGEN
ACUMULADO ANUAL 2009-2011*
600
400
D
200
0
Total 2009 Total 2010 Total 2011*
(*) 2011 Información preliminar
Fuente: Encuesta trimestral de remesas - Banco de la República
Cálculos Sector Externo- DTIE
INTERNAL DEBT DOLLARS
100
80
60
40
INTERNAL DEBT
20 DOLLARS
0
FDI MILLIONS
$100,000.00
$80,000.00
$60,000.00
$40,000.00 FDI MILLIONS
$20,000.00
$-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

17.  Inflation Colombia 2006 – 2011
Mes 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Enero 2,51 1,65 1,79 2,21 1,29 1,05 0,80 1,17 0,89 0,82 0,54 0,77 1,06 0,59 0,69 0,91
Febrero 4,01 3,11 3,28 1,70 2,30 1,89 1,26 1,11 1,20 1,02 0,66 1,17 1,51 0,84 0,83 0,60
Marzo 2,10 1,55 2,60 0,94 1,71 1,48 0,71 1,05 0,98 0,77 0,70 1,21 0,81 0,50 0,25 0,27
Abril 1,97 1,62 2,90 0,78 1,00 1,15 0,92 1,15 0,46 0,44 0,45 0,90 0,71 0,32 0,46 0,12
Mayo 1,55 1,62 1,56 0,48 0,52 0,42 0,60 0,49 0,38 0,41 0,33 0,30 0,93 0,01 0,10 0,28
Junio 1,14 1,20 1,22 0,28 -0,02 0,04 0,43 -0,05 0,60 0,40 0,30 0,12 0,86 -0,06 0,11 0,32
Julio 1,51 0,83 0,47 0,31 -0,04 0,11 0,02 -0,14 -0,03 0,05 0,41 0,17 0,48 -0,04 -0,04 0,14
Agosto 1,10 1,14 0,03 0,50 0,32 0,26 0,09 0,31 0,03 0,00 0,39 -0,13 0,19 0,04 0,11 -0.03
Septiembre 1,19 1,26 0,29 0,33 0,43 0,37 0,36 0,22 0,30 0,43 0,29 0,08 -0,19 -0,11 -0,14
Octubre 1,15 0,96 0,35 0,35 0,15 0,19 0,56 0,06 -0,01 0,23 -0,14 0,01 0,35 -0,13 -0,09
Noviembre 0,80 0,81 0,17 0,48 0,33 0,12 0,78 0,35 0,28 0,11 0,24 0,47 0,28 -0,07 0,19
Diciembre 0,72 0,61 0,91 0,53 0,46 0,34 0,27 0,61 0,30 0,07 0,23 0,49 0,44 0,08 0,65
En año corrido 21,63 17,68 16,70 9,23 8,75 7,65 6,99 6,49 5,50 4,85 4,48 5,69 7,67 2,00 3,17 2,67
 Inflation Column Bar:
 Expenses of Colombia (2006 – 2011)
 Private Loans:

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