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The Long Tail 2008-11-05 1 Written by Jennifer Ahn soojin.jennifer@gmail.com
hit driven economics What is Log Tail Death of the Hits Examples,  Environment what is the breakthrough characteristics ? why?  ( driving force) On line businesses Social ( internet ) environment Attribute to realize Long Tail business Essential component Recommendations 2008-11-05 2 Written by Jennifer Ahn soojin.jennifer@gmail.com
What is Long Tail? The world has been driven by the hit. Now, the niches cannot be negligible The demand of niches never fell to zero The tail of available variety is far longer than we realize It’s now within reach economically All those niches, when aggregate, can make up a significant market The probability of hit is getting lower, the abundance is getting bigger ! Getting thinner Getting longer “The biggest money is in the smallest sales” – venture capitalist Kevin Laws Never zero 2008-11-05 3 Written by Jennifer Ahnsoojin.jennifer@gmail.com source : The long Tail
2008-11-05 4 Written by Jennifer Ahnsoojin.jennifer@gmail.com source : The long Tail
Hit Driven Economies “ This is world of scarcity. Now with online distribution and retail, we are entering a world of abundance. The difference are profound! “We are turning from a mass market back into a niche nation, defined now not by our geography but by our interests.”  The rise and all of the hit Scarcity of  information  Development of transportation  Mass Media Era of  net & share Death of  the Hit ! Enjoy the same experiences Crisis in variety & abundance  The myth of the Hit Driven Economies  ,[object Object]
  With this hit driven mind set, history is written by blockbusters.
  If it is good enough, it will be hit. The niches are worse than hits.
  And more myth 2008-11-05 5 Written by Jennifer Ahnsoojin.jennifer@gmail.com ,[object Object]
Everyone’s in it for the money,
The only success is mass success
“Direct to video” = bad,
“ Self Publish” = bad
“Independent” = “They couldn’t get a deal”
Amateur = amateurish
Low-selling = Low quality,[object Object]
Why? – The Driving Forces of The Long Tail I Six Themes of the Long Tail There are far more niche goods than hits The cost of reaching those niches is no falling dramatically  Consumers have the ways to find niches that suit their particular needs and interest.  filters. : recommendation, ranking The demand curve flattens  There are so many niche products that collectively they can comprise a market rivaling the hits. The natural shape of demand is far less hit-driven than we have led to believe  ,[object Object],2008-11-05 7 Written by Jennifer Ahnsoojin.jennifer@gmail.com
Why? – The Driving Forces of The Long Tail II Democratize the tools of production Democratize the tools of distribution Connect supply and demand Result  : More access to niches which fattens the Tail Result  : Drive business from hits to niches Result  : More Stuff, which lengthens the Tail source : The long Tail  source : The long Tail  source : The long Tail  Everyone is able to make their own content  The traditional line between producers and consumers  has blurred. Examples ,[object Object]
Apples Garage band,
Astronomy’s Pro-Am movement
Wikipedia peer production
Every one can distribute their own content
Examples

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the Long Tail and Beyond

  • 1. The Long Tail 2008-11-05 1 Written by Jennifer Ahn soojin.jennifer@gmail.com
  • 2. hit driven economics What is Log Tail Death of the Hits Examples, Environment what is the breakthrough characteristics ? why? ( driving force) On line businesses Social ( internet ) environment Attribute to realize Long Tail business Essential component Recommendations 2008-11-05 2 Written by Jennifer Ahn soojin.jennifer@gmail.com
  • 3. What is Long Tail? The world has been driven by the hit. Now, the niches cannot be negligible The demand of niches never fell to zero The tail of available variety is far longer than we realize It’s now within reach economically All those niches, when aggregate, can make up a significant market The probability of hit is getting lower, the abundance is getting bigger ! Getting thinner Getting longer “The biggest money is in the smallest sales” – venture capitalist Kevin Laws Never zero 2008-11-05 3 Written by Jennifer Ahnsoojin.jennifer@gmail.com source : The long Tail
  • 4. 2008-11-05 4 Written by Jennifer Ahnsoojin.jennifer@gmail.com source : The long Tail
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  • 6. With this hit driven mind set, history is written by blockbusters.
  • 7. If it is good enough, it will be hit. The niches are worse than hits.
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  • 9. Everyone’s in it for the money,
  • 10. The only success is mass success
  • 13. “Independent” = “They couldn’t get a deal”
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  • 21. Every one can distribute their own content
  • 26. Directly connect supply and demand efficiently
  • 27. Lower the search cost, minimize hassle, wrong turns
  • 32. customer review 2008-11-05 8 Written by Jennifer Ahnsoojin.jennifer@gmail.com
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  • 34. Examples Lulu.com : DIY publisher Not for the money, but for distributing your message. Use it for reputation. The traditional line between producers and consumers has blurred Amazon. com : Inventory on Demand Virtually connect centralized supply with scattered demand Print-on-demand : The idealized form books staying as digital files until customers are purchase  Near-zero inventory cost 2008-11-05 Written by Jennifer Ahnsoojin.jennifer@gmail.com 10 (Democratize the tools of distribution ) ( Connect supply and demand )
  • 35. What are breakthrough characteristics ? Why do they do it? In the hit-driven economy, the business model is based only on money, but, in the log-tail economy, there are other reasons like “reputation” They take advantage of internet to achieve reputation and gain the money in other way “Reputation economy” , “Gift economy”, “Exposure culture” “ The big sin in exposure culture is not copying” – Tim Wu, a Columbia University law professor Copyright is essential Different objectives, motives, methods Gray area about copyright (independent labels, academic presses) Give up some of their copyright 2008-11-05 11 Written by Jennifer Ahnsoojin.jennifer@gmail.com
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  • 40. Helping people move from the world they know ( hit) to the world they don’t know ( niches) ,
  • 41. Driving demand down the tail by revealing goods and services that appeal more than the lowest-common-denominator fare 2008-11-05 14 Written by Jennifer Ahnsoojin.jennifer@gmail.com The world of scarcity The world of Information The world of abundant (Recommendation age) How to gather the information How to hunt the information How to use the filters Niches comfortable Filter the noises for me Just Fit my needs Tailored Good filters
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  • 44. Pre-filters is trying to predict what will fit for customers needs  predicting tastes
  • 45. Post-filters is collaborative filtering based on wisdom of crowds, coming after publication  measure the tastes of customers self-correct the errors and never disappear entirely 2008-11-05 Written by Jennifer Ahnsoojin.jennifer@gmail.com 16
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  • 48. Although the demand has shifted to the Tail, The Long tail theory doesn’t mean the abandon of the hit economy
  • 49. Conventional view is that more choice is better, but there is TheParadox of Choice – 2004, Barry Schwartz“Why Choice Is De-motivating” : The more choice, the more negative of aspect of having a multiple of options begin to appear.  The Hits let customers know where to start and the filters make selection process easier 2008-11-05 Shifting demand (because of 3 aspects) Both hits and niches should be co-exist Written by Jennifer Ahnsoojin.jennifer@gmail.com 18
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  • 54. Information about buying patterns, when transformed into recommendations, can be a powerful marketing tool
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  • 57. Wisdom of crowds  ① People are information-rich, ② easy to compare goods, ③spread the word about what they like
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