Draft plan to forecast what will happen in space industry

1. Business model in space
(draft proposal)
http://www.twitter.com/sikkha
10.07.2013

2. Context & rational
• Privatization of space industry
• More private investment in space industry; consider
SpaceX, NASA outsourced program
• Space competition has declined since end of cold war era
• More private value chain and production in space industry,
ie launching service
• Rapid advancement of technologies, ie robotics, quantum
physics, space tech
• Rapid increasing of human population (and longer
longevity)
• Human race resilience capacity

3. Launching service
• Governmental (NASA, Military,
Communication, Broadcasting) outsourcing
• Intergovernmental outsourcing, ie space
station, science & medical laboratory
• Satellite launching service (maintain, new)
• Satellite production / maintenance
• Scarcity of rare mineral on earth

4. Mining service
• Rare mineral exploration in space business
• Moon, meteor rare mineral mining service
• Rare mineral logistic (space  earth)
• Radioactive/toxic waste (earth  space)
• Space tourism (earth  space)

5. Bigger picture (near orbit colonization)

6. Bigger picture (triangle trade)
See: http://www.marspapers.org/papers/Zubrin_1995.pdf

7. Things to consider
• Governmental / International law and regulation
• Cultural factors
• Geopolitics of space / Space domain
• Size and level of investment
• Complexity and an advancement of technology
• Complexity of financial & economics fundraising
platform (overwhelming of money? Throwing them in
to the space, then.)
• Next great leap innovation after large global conflict?
• How to control horde & risk aversion feeling among
investors

8. Cultural factor
• Consider Huntington’s the clash
of civilization
• 3 types of culture: still lifes,
oscillators, spaceships
• Only western culture is a
spaceships type
• Don’t forget about outliers in
each non-spaceships civilization
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Co
nway%27s_Game_of_Life

9. What is to be done
• Forum talking about this issue, ie OEMF
http://www.acser.unsw.edu.au/oemf/
• Think Tanks to engage and research on this issue to
promote space investment public policy
• Book to make a solid idea on space investment
• Advertisement agency to promote space investment idea
• Seed fund
• Business entity and industry network
• First and Second round angel fund and network connection
• Exit plan, ie IPO and sale out
• etc

10. END
Business model in space (draft proposal)