This is a presentation which was prepared and presented by my study group as a part of course in our Core MBA curriculum. It related with the fertility in India. Describes various measures of fertility - ASFR, TFR, Replacement level fertility and more. Also shows the trends in fertility from 1992 to 2005 across 3 NFHS. Also helps to understand the effect of population on economic growth, environment and human development by using some data regression.

1. Indian School of Business
Group F13
Kyungmin Park
Rahul Gupta
Shikhar Angra
Sriram Govindrajan
Yasharth Mishra

2. • Key Terms– TFR, ASFR, CEB, CBR, etc.
• Statistics as per NFHS 3.
• Fertility trends in India from 1991-92 to 2005-06.
• Variations in fertility parameters across states and
urban-rural differentials.
• Factors affecting fertility rates.
• World view - association between population and
economic growth, poverty, environment, human
development.

3. • divide the number of births to women in that age group during the period
1-36 months preceding the survey by the number of woman years lived by
women in that age group during the same three-year time period.
Age Specific Fertility Rates
(ASFR)
• Average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime
if she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs)
through her lifetime, and she were to survive from birth through the end of
her reproductive life.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
• The replacement rate is the number of children each woman needs to have to
maintain current population levels or what is known as zero population
growth.
Replacement Level Fertility
Rate
• the annual number of births per 1,000 populationCrude Birth Rate (CBR)
• the number of children a woman has ever borneChild Ever Born (CEB)
• percentage of currently married women age 15-49 years who are currently
using a contraceptive method or whose husbands are using a contraceptive
method
Contraceptive Prevalence
Rate (CPR)

4. Objective of National Population Policy, 2000:
• “to address the unmet needs for contraception, health care infrastructure,
and health personnel, and to provide integrated service delivery for basic
reproductive and child health care. The medium-term objective is to bring
the TFR to replacement levels by 2010”
• Achieve population stabilization by 2045 i.e. population to stabilize into a
stationary population, with no year-to-year changes in age-specific rates or in
total population.
Age Urban Rural Total
15-19 0.057 0.105 0.09
20-24 0.166 0.231 0.209
25-39 0.184 0.246 0.226
40-49 0.005 0.013 0.01
Urban Rural Total
TFR 15-49 2.06 2.98 2.68
Urban Rural Total
CBR 18.8 25 23.1
Mean No. of CEB
Mean No. of
living children
Age -- --
15-19 0.15 0.14
20-24 1.15 1.06
25-39 2.95 2.65
40-49 4 3.41

5. Source: http://www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2012/world-population-data-sheet/world-map.aspx#/map/births

6. 0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total
NFHS3 NFHS2 NFHS1
2.06
2.98
2.68
2.27
3.06
2.84
2.68
3.64
3.36
TFR
Trends in TFR
NFHS3 – 2003-05, NFHS2 – 1996-98, NFHS1 – 1990-92.

7. 0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
15-19 20-24 25-39 40-49
Trends in Total ASFR
NFHS3
NFHS2
NFHS1
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
15-19 20-24 25-39 40-49
ASFR Trends - Urban and Rural
NFHS3-Urban
NFHS3-Rural
NFHS2-Urban
NFHS2-Rural
NFHS1-Urban
NFHS1-Rural

8. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total
NFHS3 NFHS2 NFHS1
18.8
25
23.1
20.9
26.2
24.8 24.1
30.4
28.7
CBR
Trends in CBR
NFHS3 – 2003-05, NFHS2 – 1996-98, NFHS1 – 1990-92.

9. Kerala Tamil Nadu
India
Urban Rural
Uttar
Pradesh
Bihar
TFR
1.93 1.8 2.06 2.98 3.82 4.0
CBR
16.4 16.4 18.8 25 29.1 32.4
Median number
of months since
preceding birth
41.2 31.4 31.1 29.8 29.9
%of women age 15-19 who have
had a live birth or who are
pregnant with their first child
5.8 7.7 16.0 14.3 25.0
Wanted Fertility Rate
Actual Fertility Rate 1.8/1.9 1.4/1.8 1.9/2.7 2.3/3.8 2.4/4.0
Percentage who want
more sons than Daughters
(Women/Men)
11/11.8 5.7/7.9 22.4/20.0 33.5/27.8 39.2/38.5

10. Five key proximate determinants
Marriage
Sexual Intercourse
Postpartum Amenorrhea
Postpartum Abstinence
Menopause
Contraceptive Use

11. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Never married
Currently Married
Married gauna not
performed
Widowed
Divorced
Separated
%age Married
0
5
10
15
20
25
Median Age at First Marriage
0
5
10
15
20
25
Median Age at first sexual intercourse

12. 90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Knowledge of at least one contraceptive method
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
%
Ever use of contraception
CURRENTLY MARRIED
WOMEN - TOTAL
UNMARRIED WOMEN
WHO EVER HAD SEX -
TOTAL
0.00
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
FemaleSterilization
FemalePill
FemaleIUD
FemaleInjectables
Female
Condom/Nirodh
MaleSterilization
MaleCondom/Nirodh
Cost of Modern Methods
Percentage free
Percentage who donot know cost
Median cost ($)

13. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Not having sex/infrequent sex
Menopausal/had hysterectomy
Subfecund/infecund
Fatalistic
Wants as many children as possible
Respondent opposed
Husband opposed
Others opposed
Religious prohibition
Knows no method
Knows no source
Health concerns
Fear of side effects
Lack of access/too far
Costs too much
Inconvenient to use
Interferes with body’s normal processes
Other
Don’t know
Missing
%
Reason for not intending to use contraceptive in future

14. 68.2, 3.9 Bihar
54.9, 3.9 Uttar Pradesh
24.5, 1.5 A & N
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
TFR
Percentage of women between age 20-24 married before the age of 18(by state)
TFR v/s Early marriage4
3.6 Bihar
1.7
T.N.
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
TFR
Literacy rate (in %)
TFR v/s Literacy Rate (2011)5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
TFR
Any method of contraceptive use (%)
TFR v/s Use of contraceptives

15. R² = 0.003
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 0.5 1 1.5
Billions
Poverty head count
ratio below $1.5
R² = 0.476
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 0.5 1 1.5
Billions
CO2 emissions
(million tones)
R² = 0.013
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 0.5 1 1.5
Billions
HDI
R² = 0.127
0
4
8
12
16
0 0.5 1 1.5
Billions
GDP, PPP
(current international
tn $)
• Top 10 populous countries in decreasing
order:
•China
•India
•United States
•Indonesia
•Brazil
•Pakistan
•Nigeria
•Bangladesh
•Russian Federation
•Japan
•Little or no correlation exists between
population with poverty head count
ratio, and HDI
•Strong correlations between population
with GDP (PPP adjusted) and CO2
emissions
• Population and per capita income are the
major contributors of CO2 emissions (but
vary across time and region)– research
paper by R. Shanthini
•Source: World Bank databases6

16. • Here are the statistics are per the SRS Statistical
Report 2011 3
– TFR: 2.4, Urban: 1.9, Rural: 2.7
– CBR: 21.8, Urban: 17.6, Rural: 23.3
– Proportion of females getting married before legal
age of marriage: 3.7%
– Sex Ratio: 906, Urban: 900, Rural: 907

17. • NPP, 2000 stated that if its strategies are
followed then India’s population could be
capped at 1.1 billion in 2010.
• In reality India’s population in 2010 was 1.15
billion and approximately 1.24 billion today.
• Union Health and Family Welfare Ministry has
pushed back the target date for achieving
population stabilization to 2070 from 2045.
Projected population in 2070 - 170 crore1

18. • Should government rethink its population control
policy?
• At the time when most of the developed world and
even developing world countries such as China and
Korea are starting to age should India really try and
drastically control its population growth?
• What is the real problem - population or the
underlying factors?
• Demographic dividend – All hype or is there some
substance in it?

19. 1. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/population-stabilisation-target-date-pushed-back-to-
2070/article843432.ece
2. All statistics sourced from - http://www.measuredhs.com/pubs/pdf/FRIND3/00FrontMatter00.pdf
3. http://www.censusindia.gov.in/vital_statistics/SRS_Reports.html
4. http://www.unicef.org/india/Child_Marriage_Fact_Sheet_Nov2011_final.pdf
5. http://censusindia.gov.in/2011-Common/srs.html
6. World Bank databases - http://datacatalog.worldbank.org/

21. • In the 1950s, TFR exceeded six children per woman.
• In 1962, South Korea began its national family
planning campaign to reduce women's unwanted
births through a program of information and the
provision of family planning supplies and services.
• The program was seen as essential if the goals of
economic growth and modernization were to be
achieved. -> The public responded well to the idea
of a “small and prosperous family.”
• By 1970, the TFR had fallen to 4.5

22. • A 1974 poster (see figure's top image)
exhorted, “Sons or daughters, let's have
two children and raise them well.”
• In 1981, the government, buoyed by its
success up to that point, set a target of a
two-child, "replacement" level fertility by
1988 with a program of economic
incentives.
• There was even some mention of a one-
child family: "Even two children per family
are too many for our crowded country"
(see bottom image).
• The TFR was down to 1.74 by 1984.