Sustainably Feeding the World: The Next 40 Years

Sustainably Feeding the World:
The Next 40 Years
Shenggen Fan
Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
University of Minnesota, St. Paul, October 18, 2010

Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, October 2010
Key messages
 Global food security is under stress
 “Business as unusual” is urgently needed
for enhancing food security
 Agricultural science and technology, and
policy research, are critical

PART I
Global food security is under stress

The goal of halving hunger is off-track
Source: Based on data from FAO 2009; 2010 and author’s calculations
Number of hungry people, 1990-2015
946
584

29 countries have alarming/extremely
alarming levels of hunger (2010 GHI)
GHI components:
•Proportion of undernourished
•Prevalence of underweight in children
•Under-five mortality rate
Source: von Grebmer et al. 2010

Food security vulnerable in short run
 Russian wheat crisis
 Flood in Pakistan
 Riots in Mozambique
 Food price inflation in India and China

Future stress factors in long run
 Population growth
 Land and water constraints
 Climate change
 Biofuels/Energy

Rapidly growing population and
demographic change
World population reaches 9
billion by 2050
 All growth to come from
urban areas
 Most growth to come
from developing countries
Source: FAO 2009
Larger and more urban population will demand more
and better food

Feeding a growing population
World Developing Developed
2005/07 to 2050 (%)
Crop 66 82 30
Livestock 76 117 17
Total 70 97 23
Source: Bruinsma 2009
Production needs to almost double in
developing countries

Natural resource constraints are high
Source: IWMI 2000
Projected water scarcity in 2025

Source: M. Rosegrant 2009
NCAR A2a
Climate change pressure on agriculture
Climate change impact on production: Rainfed maize
(% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate)
Global production = -16%

Competition between agriculture and
energy will persist
With biofuel expansion:
 production of maize and
sugarcane will be 5% and
1% higher by 2020
 prices of maize and
sugarcane will be 16% and
3% higher by 2020
©Wired.com
Source: Zhang et al. 2009

PART II
“Business as unusual” is urgently
needed for enhancing food security

Smarter
More innovative
Better focused
Cost-effective approach

Invest in two core pillars:
Agriculture and social protection
!1
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Education
Social Protection
Health
Agriculture
Government expenditure in developing countries
(2005 constant international dollars, PPP)
Source: Data from IFPRI SPEED database 2010
Improve smallholder
productivity
• high-quality seeds
• irrigation
• fertilizer
• infrastructure, etc.
Exploit synergies
between agriculture
and social protection

Bring in new players!2
Private sector and public-private partnerships
 Can provide inclusive business initiatives and
innovation to support fight against hunger
 E.g.: Grameen Danone Foods, Indian Rural Business
Hubs, Business Alliance against Chronic Hunger
Philanthropies
 Can take more risks to reach the poor; promote social
entrepreneurship
 E.g. Gates Foundation, Heifer Int’l, Helen Keller Int’l
Right incentives and favorable business environment
needed

Rising role of emerging economies in
aid, trade, FDI, and food supply
Emerging economies need to be fully integrated in the
global food security agenda
!2

Adopt a country-led, bottom-up
approach
 “One-size-fits-all” strategies do not work
 Reforms that involve poor people as a driving
force have a large potential
 Some issues (e.g. climate change, trade) must be
addressed at the global level, but also adapted to
the local context
 From G8 to G20, donors move to support country-
led processes
!3

Design policies using evidence and
experiments
 Experimentation can improve policy-making when
 Successful pilots are quickly scaled up
 Unsuccessful policy options are eliminated
 Political and legal space is important for
experimentation
 Increased investment in information gathering,
monitoring, and evaluation is crucial
Try, test, adjust, and try again before scaling up
!4

!5 Walk the walk
Mechanisms are needed for accountability and timeliness
(e.g. ReSAKSS, UN High-Level Task Force)

PART III
Agricultural science and technology,
and policy research, are critical

Science and technology are critical to:
 Increase yields
 Enhance the nutritional value of food crops
 Provide adaptive buffers against global shocks
Source: FBAE 2009
Source: Chris Stowers/PANOS

But modern technologies remain beyond
the reach of many smallholders
 Modern inputs are expensive and can increase
risks in the event of production shocks
 Less than 30% of farmers use modern seeds in
Africa, compared to over 80% in Asia
(Paarlberg 2008)
 Tradable seeds remain scarce in Africa
Science and technology need to be complemented by
sound policies

Food policy research can:
 Confirm the appropriateness of policy actions taken
 Indicate that policy actions are needed to reduce
risks or increase benefits
 Show the probable outcomes of alternative policies
 Synthesize information on how others have coped
with an issue
 Alert policymakers to major threats
Policy research has evolved from a narrow focus to
include the whole food value chain

Sector
Ghana Uganda Tanzania Ethiopia China India Thailand
Returns to agriculture or rural income
(local currency/local currency spending)
Agriculture 16.8 12.4 12.5 0.14 6.8 13.5 12.6
Education -0.2 7.2 9.0 0.56 2.2 1.4 2.1
Health 1.3 0.9 n.e. -0.03 n.e. 0.8 n.e.
Roads 8.8 2.7 9.1 4.22 1.7 5.3 0.9
Ranking in returns to poverty reduction
Agriculture n.e. 1 2 n.e. 2 2 1
Education n.e. 3 1 n.e. 1 3 3
Health n.e. 4 n.e. n.e. n.e. 4 n.e.
Roads n.e. 2 3 n.e. 3 1 2
Policy research insights for resource
allocation
Source: Fan, Mogues, and Benin 2009
Note: “n.e.” indicates not estimated

Contribution of IFPRI’s research to the
CGIAR
 More investment in food security, agriculture, rural
development, and improved resource allocation
 Improved policy environment for technological
developments of other CGIAR centers
 IFPRI leads CRP2: Policies, Institutions, and
Markets to Strengthen Assets and Agricultural
Incomes for the Poor
 IFPRI and ILRI co-lead CRP4: Agriculture for
Improved Health and Nutrition

The conference will:
 bring together information on how to strengthen
linkages among agriculture, nutrition, and health
 identify “best practices” in policies and programs
 further knowledge and build consensus on
priorities for appropriate action
 facilitate networks amongst stakeholders
27

Sustainably Feeding the World: The Next 40 Years

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