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 Are you ready for Hosting 3.0? Antonio Piraino Vice President, Tier1Research
Tech Bubble 2.0?   “Facebook reached 750m users; 7 billion pieces of content shared on the site weekly Facebook was linked to over 100,000 crimes in the UK “Apple’s15bn app store downloads is growing 9 times faster than Macdonald’s”(A.Love) Apple Embroiled in Patent violations with  HTC and Samsung “Google Android 550,000 a day, 160m Chrome users, $37bn cash, $200bn market cap” FTC/EU is investigating Google for possible antitrust violations Google retiring Google Health online personal health records “Twitter's July membership increased 50,000 per day with 95 million tweets a day” IOC warns athletes out of the London Olympics if they over-step Twitter and Facebook “LinkedIn added up to $102/share with $470m revenue and over 100m users” Competition with Zynga, and being sunk by Spam Facebook, Groupon, Zynga, LivingSocial, Twitter, LinkedIn, Pandora ($3bMarket Cap = 16x Revenue), Zillow: $3.5 billion revenue; $200bn Market Cap.  Demand Media Enterprise Value/EBIDTA: 18-19x ($1bn Market Cap)  Copyright/Trademark infringement issues detracted from market cap <$1bn Do Not Confuse with Cloud 2.0 or Hosting 3.0!
Hosting Evolution Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Courtesy of onvirtualization.com
Cloud Computing: Market Separation Public to Enterprise
Hosting 3.0 What Changed? The Opportunity Challenges Hosters will Face What can you do? Where to next?
ChangeWave U.S. IT Spending Indicator –Net Score  August 2006 – July 2011 6
ChangeWave U.S. IT Spending Indicatorvs. S&P 500 August 2006 – July 2011 7
Impact on SMB Budget
Economic Impact
What’s changed in the business Psyche? Consumerization of IT Era
Enterprise Capital Budgets
Hosting 3.0 What Changed? The Opportunity Challenges Hosters will face What Can you do? Where to next?
Courtesy: Jack of all Clouds/Cloudkick The Distribution Shift Number of sites in samples
The IaaS Opportunity Cost CAGR 70% IaaS Revenue Estimates Revenue $USM Source: Tier1 Research/The 451 Group
Which format of Cloud?
Aggregate Cloud ‘As a Service’ Market CAGR ~25%
Growth in the Rest of the Market
Revenue growth – Shared hosting Shared Hosting Revenue 2009-2013 Shared hosting revenue has been growing at 7-9% per year
Revenue growth – Dedicated hosting Dedicated Hosting Revenue 2009-2013 Dedicated hosting revenue has been growing at around 5% per year
Internet Infrastructure Revenue Mix
Revenue growth – Managed hosting Managed Hosting Revenue 2009-2013 Managed hosting revenue has been growing at around 20% per year
Top Apps driving cloud computing Cloud Computing: Top 5 Areas that Companies Currently Support Applications Running on Public Cloud Computing Services. Current Share  -  Jul 2011
Hosting 3.0 What Changed? The Opportunity Challenges Hosters will face What Can you do? Where to next?
Threats to your Hosting Business New Entrants & Rivals   Legacy Processes: slow, laborious, manual Spending more to be more efficient SEO suboptimization Commoditization Trusting your vendor Lack of Cross/Upsell Lack of Stickiness Cultural Change Time and Timing Where to start in the Cloud game Price Wars in Cloud Era Perceptions around cloud Getting it wrong
Growing Competition ,[object Object]
“Google launches new Page Speed Service (on top  of SPDY): for Google Sites, Picassa, AppEngine, Apps” (July 2011)
“Businesses with Microsoft Volume License can run existing Windows Server application licenses on Amazon EC2” (July 2011)
“Apple has added volume purchasing to its App Store in a bid to entice the enterprise segment: B2B apps for $9.99.” (July ‘11)
“Intuit and salesforce.com recently announced a deal to integrate QuickBooks with salesforce.com's CRM platform.” (April ‘11),[object Object]
Perception wrt Security
Compute model increasingly complex ,[object Object]
Means more challenges in meeting SLAs,[object Object]
Hosting 3.0 What Changed? The Opportunity Challenges Hosters will face What Can you do? Where to next?
Options Virtualize & Automate Parallels, Citrix, VMware, HyperV, ISP System, etc IaaS stack in a box (plumbing) Cloud.com, Onapp, Flexient, Eucalyptus, Canonical PaaS in a box Hexagrid, Joyent, Opsource, Morphlabs, Elasticstack Don’t forget to focus on Management and Control Sciencelogic, Nimsoft (CA), BMC .. and on Security, reliability and assurances to Customers Means SLAs and more high touch involvement Don’t get into the habit of price wars – you can’t afford it!
Ultimately a decision needs to be made Partner, build, be acquired, change shape, compete ?
Venture Capital Expectations % of VCs who expect investments to increase in 2011 in companies related to: Source:  National Venture Capital Association Survey, results Dec 2010
Hosting 3.0 What Changed? The Opportunity Challenges Hosters will face What Can you do? Where to next?
The next phase of cloud computing http://www.cloudgirlfriend.com/
Framing the Consolidation Other  (MSPs, VARs,  Social media) Telecom Providers Hosting  Providers ISVs Systems integrators Global Regional National
SaaS/Apps Marketplace Opportunity Cloud Value Web  Conferencing E-Learning Team Collaboration Test and  Development  SMB - ERP CRM/SFA HCM  Procurement* SCE-TMS Email CRM/Marketing  Automation CRM –  Call Center SMB Complex Loosely Coupled SCP Manufacturing  And  Operations Software EAM FMS Time  2010 -2006 2011 -2012+
Practical Reflections for Service Providers Commit to a strategy ,[object Object],Decide between IaaS, PaaS or SaaS ,[object Object],The biggest Competitor  ,[object Object],OfferingAssurances ,[object Object],Addressing the Security Poverty Line ,[object Object],There is no magic Solution – partnerships are key! ,[object Object],[object Object]

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Are you ready for Hosting 3.0?

  • 1. Are you ready for Hosting 3.0? Antonio Piraino Vice President, Tier1Research
  • 2. Tech Bubble 2.0? “Facebook reached 750m users; 7 billion pieces of content shared on the site weekly Facebook was linked to over 100,000 crimes in the UK “Apple’s15bn app store downloads is growing 9 times faster than Macdonald’s”(A.Love) Apple Embroiled in Patent violations with HTC and Samsung “Google Android 550,000 a day, 160m Chrome users, $37bn cash, $200bn market cap” FTC/EU is investigating Google for possible antitrust violations Google retiring Google Health online personal health records “Twitter's July membership increased 50,000 per day with 95 million tweets a day” IOC warns athletes out of the London Olympics if they over-step Twitter and Facebook “LinkedIn added up to $102/share with $470m revenue and over 100m users” Competition with Zynga, and being sunk by Spam Facebook, Groupon, Zynga, LivingSocial, Twitter, LinkedIn, Pandora ($3bMarket Cap = 16x Revenue), Zillow: $3.5 billion revenue; $200bn Market Cap.  Demand Media Enterprise Value/EBIDTA: 18-19x ($1bn Market Cap) Copyright/Trademark infringement issues detracted from market cap <$1bn Do Not Confuse with Cloud 2.0 or Hosting 3.0!
  • 3. Hosting Evolution Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Courtesy of onvirtualization.com
  • 4. Cloud Computing: Market Separation Public to Enterprise
  • 5. Hosting 3.0 What Changed? The Opportunity Challenges Hosters will Face What can you do? Where to next?
  • 6. ChangeWave U.S. IT Spending Indicator –Net Score August 2006 – July 2011 6
  • 7. ChangeWave U.S. IT Spending Indicatorvs. S&P 500 August 2006 – July 2011 7
  • 8. Impact on SMB Budget
  • 10. What’s changed in the business Psyche? Consumerization of IT Era
  • 12. Hosting 3.0 What Changed? The Opportunity Challenges Hosters will face What Can you do? Where to next?
  • 13. Courtesy: Jack of all Clouds/Cloudkick The Distribution Shift Number of sites in samples
  • 14. The IaaS Opportunity Cost CAGR 70% IaaS Revenue Estimates Revenue $USM Source: Tier1 Research/The 451 Group
  • 15. Which format of Cloud?
  • 16. Aggregate Cloud ‘As a Service’ Market CAGR ~25%
  • 17. Growth in the Rest of the Market
  • 18. Revenue growth – Shared hosting Shared Hosting Revenue 2009-2013 Shared hosting revenue has been growing at 7-9% per year
  • 19. Revenue growth – Dedicated hosting Dedicated Hosting Revenue 2009-2013 Dedicated hosting revenue has been growing at around 5% per year
  • 21. Revenue growth – Managed hosting Managed Hosting Revenue 2009-2013 Managed hosting revenue has been growing at around 20% per year
  • 22. Top Apps driving cloud computing Cloud Computing: Top 5 Areas that Companies Currently Support Applications Running on Public Cloud Computing Services. Current Share - Jul 2011
  • 23. Hosting 3.0 What Changed? The Opportunity Challenges Hosters will face What Can you do? Where to next?
  • 24. Threats to your Hosting Business New Entrants & Rivals Legacy Processes: slow, laborious, manual Spending more to be more efficient SEO suboptimization Commoditization Trusting your vendor Lack of Cross/Upsell Lack of Stickiness Cultural Change Time and Timing Where to start in the Cloud game Price Wars in Cloud Era Perceptions around cloud Getting it wrong
  • 25.
  • 26. “Google launches new Page Speed Service (on top of SPDY): for Google Sites, Picassa, AppEngine, Apps” (July 2011)
  • 27. “Businesses with Microsoft Volume License can run existing Windows Server application licenses on Amazon EC2” (July 2011)
  • 28. “Apple has added volume purchasing to its App Store in a bid to entice the enterprise segment: B2B apps for $9.99.” (July ‘11)
  • 29.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33. Hosting 3.0 What Changed? The Opportunity Challenges Hosters will face What Can you do? Where to next?
  • 34. Options Virtualize & Automate Parallels, Citrix, VMware, HyperV, ISP System, etc IaaS stack in a box (plumbing) Cloud.com, Onapp, Flexient, Eucalyptus, Canonical PaaS in a box Hexagrid, Joyent, Opsource, Morphlabs, Elasticstack Don’t forget to focus on Management and Control Sciencelogic, Nimsoft (CA), BMC .. and on Security, reliability and assurances to Customers Means SLAs and more high touch involvement Don’t get into the habit of price wars – you can’t afford it!
  • 35. Ultimately a decision needs to be made Partner, build, be acquired, change shape, compete ?
  • 36. Venture Capital Expectations % of VCs who expect investments to increase in 2011 in companies related to: Source: National Venture Capital Association Survey, results Dec 2010
  • 37. Hosting 3.0 What Changed? The Opportunity Challenges Hosters will face What Can you do? Where to next?
  • 38. The next phase of cloud computing http://www.cloudgirlfriend.com/
  • 39. Framing the Consolidation Other (MSPs, VARs, Social media) Telecom Providers Hosting Providers ISVs Systems integrators Global Regional National
  • 40. SaaS/Apps Marketplace Opportunity Cloud Value Web Conferencing E-Learning Team Collaboration Test and Development SMB - ERP CRM/SFA HCM Procurement* SCE-TMS Email CRM/Marketing Automation CRM – Call Center SMB Complex Loosely Coupled SCP Manufacturing And Operations Software EAM FMS Time 2010 -2006 2011 -2012+
  • 41.
  • 42. Not a fad… This is Next-Gen Business
  • 43. Questions? Antonio Piraino Vice President, Tier1 Research www.tier1research.com