1. We need to be realistic that our ability to predict future hydrological systems is limited, especially over long time periods. 2. Making decisions solely based on recent history fails to account for potential water-related surprises, like flooding or drought. 3. While some regions may be more vulnerable to climate change impacts on water resources, changes could still indirectly affect other areas.

1. WATER
IN NORTH AMERICA
PAST
PRESENT
FUTURE
Sco St. George
University of Minnesota

2. Water is the driving force of all nature.

3. “ Water is the driving force of all nature. ”
Leonardo da Vinci

4. Source: Wikipedia User:Jynto

5. NVERSAL SOLVEN
Source: r. Vore

6. PHOTOSYNTHESI
Source: S John Davey

7. GREENHOUSE EF
Source: Horia Varlan

8. ALBEDO EFFECT
Source: NASA Goddard Photo and Video

10. all of Earth's water compared to the size of the Earth
Source: Jack Cook, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

11. all of Earth's water compared to the size of the Earth
all fresh water
lakes & rivers
Source: Jack Cook, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

12. GEOGRAPHY
MATTERS

13. P-E
precipitation evapotranspiration

14. Source: Minnesota Department of Natural Resources

15. The constant tug-of-war between P and E creates
global pa erns in water availability
Source: Kalberg et al., 2005

16. TIME
&
SPACE

17. Source: Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources

19. Source: vladeb

20. EXPERIENCE
&
OBSERVATION

21. Source: US Department of Agriculture

22. “THIS COMMUNITY HAS BEEN HERE OVER 20 YEARS
AND NEVER HAD A PROBLEM.”
“I DIDN’T THINK [FLOODING] WAS AN ISSUE.”
New York Times, July 30, 2011
Source: US Department of Agriculture

23. Source: MissTessmacher

24. PRESENT Water as it is

25. PAST Water as it was
PRESENT Water as it is
FUTURE Water as it may be

26. Minnesota
Arizona

27. WATER AS IT IS

30. Source: Jezz

31. win-nipi
“murky water” in the Cree
Source: Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada

33. Source: Ron Scho

34. The Colorado River
Nevada Tourism Relations Authority

36. The Central Arizona Project is a 336-mile canal that diverts water from the Colorado River
into central and southern Arizona.

37. Source: Chazz Lane

38. THE COLORADO RIVER COMPACT
divides water from the Colorado River
among seven western states.

39. Since 1922, the Colorado River has o en failed to live up to
the states’ legal agreement.
Compact allocation (16.5 MAF)

41. In the 1940s, Tucson was a small city with less than 40,000 residents.

42. Nearly 1 million people now live in the Greater Tucson Metropolitan Area.

43. “ We’ve never had to worry about our water resources.
Our children will not enjoy that luxury.
Patricia Mulroy
Southern Nevada Water Authority
”

47. In the summer of 1988, severe drought scorched
most of the northern great Plains.

49. Corn stalk destroyed by severe drought near Round Rock, Texas.
Jay Janner

50. Despite the increase in productivity, you still can’t grow corn without water.
bushels of corn per acre
2002
1993
1980 (flood year)
1983 1988
Source: USDA

51. MINNESOTA SAW
$1.2 BILLION
IN CROP LOSSES DUE TO
THE 1988 DROUGHT.

53. The Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant in Monticello, Minnesota
shekleton

54. The mighty Mississippi in 1988

55. “ Three li le words achingly familiar
on the Western farmer's tongue, rule life
in the dust bowl of the continent – if it rains.
Associated Press
”
April 15, 1935

57. The Red River near Grand Forks in 2009.
US Coast Guard, Lt. Brendan Evans

58. The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota in 1936.
Historical and Cultural Society of Clay County

59. THE US BUREAU OF RECLAMATION ESTIMATES THAT
1,200 TRUCKLOADS OF WATER
WOULD BE NEEDED IN FARGO EVERY DAY
IF A SIMILAR DROUGHT HAPPENED AGAIN.

60. “ There is nothing magical about
the last one hundred years.
Dr. Balaji Rajagopalan
University of Colorado
”

61. WATER AS IT WAS

62. EXPERIENCE
&
OBSERVATION

63. “ The hills look like sawdust, really, that colour.
I've never seen it where the grass didn't turn
green in the spring before.
Jerry Murphy
”
Elnora, Alberta
Source: Globe and Mail, 1 July 2009

66. CLIMATE PROXIES
ice cores
tree rings
lake sediments
speleothems
corals

67. “ JACK'S A PALEOCLIMATOLOGIST, AND I HAVE ”
ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA
WHAT HE'S UP TO.
The Day A er Tomorrow (2004)

68. Source: Tim Shanahan, University of Texas at Austin

69. Source: LACCORE, University of Minnesota

71. “ RINGS
”
IN THE BRANCHES OF
SAWED TREES SHOW
THE NUMBER OF YEARS
AND, ACCORDING TO THEIR
THICKNESS,
THE YEARS WHICH WERE
MORE OR LESS
DRY.
Leonardo da Vinci

72. The Colorado River
Nevada Tourism Relations Authority

73. Ramp to boat launch on Lake Mead, July 2008
tykxman

75. Source: Dan Griffin

76. 1,200 years of Colorado River discharge Meko et al., GRL, 2007

77. “ The tree-ring record shows that droughts
lasting decades have routinely gripped
western North America.
”
Jonathan Overpeck and Bradley Udall

78. AP Photo/U.S. Coast Guard, Lt. Brendan Evans

79. “ We do a great deal of sophisticated work in rebuilding
[levees], but there can always be a bigger flood.
Harry Kitch
US Army Corps of Engineers
”

81. 78
St.. George and Nielsen, The Holocene, 2003

82. “ The forts now stand like a castle of romance in the midst of
an ocean of deep contending currents, the water extending ”
for at least a mile behind them, and they are thereby only
approachable by boats and canoes.”

84. “ Unlike many “hard sciences”, history cannot
lend itself to experimentation.
”
Nassim Taleb, Fooled By Randomness

85. “ But somehow, overall, history is potent
enough to deliver, on time, in the medium or
long run, most of the possible scenarios, and
to eventually bury the bad guy.
”
Nassim Taleb, Fooled By Randomness

86. Source: turn off your computer and go outside

87. WATER AS IT MAY BE

89. Stationarity is the idea that natural systems fluctuate
within an unchanging envelope of variability.

91. “ The future ain’t what it used to be.
Yogi Berra
New York Yankees
”

94. Is it really a good idea to use
IDEALIZED MATHEMATICAL MODELS
to predict the future behavior of our planet?

95. More than 30 years ago, climate models predicted that
increases in CO2 would cause greatest warming in the Arctic.
Source: Manabe and Stouffer, Journal of Geophysical Research (1980).

96. Three decades later, changes in temperatures across the planet
have displayed the very same pa ern.
Source: Goddard Institute of Space Studies, NASA

97. Arctic sea ice reached its smallest extent ever recorded
on September 16, 2012.
Source: NASA

98. Source: Benjamin Lehman

99. Models suggest that further increases in CO2 will make
some places we er, while others will become drier.
Source: Delworth et al., Journal of Climate (2012)

100. THE
“ WET GET WETTER/DRY GET DRIER ”
PATTERN
cf. Delworth et al., Journal of Climate (2012)

101. Will future climate change create a bigger difference
in water resources between North and South?
Source: Delworth et al., Journal of Climate (2012)

102. THE GREAT LAKES—ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BASIN
WATER RESOURCES COMPACT
December 8, 2008
There will be a ban on new diversions of water from the Basin.
Limited exceptions could be allowed, such as for public water supply purposes in
communities near the Basin, but exceptions would be strictly regulated.

103. WATER
IN NORTH AMERICA
PAST
PRESENT
FUTURE
Sco St. George
University of Minnesota

104. AP Photo/U.S. Coast Guard, Lt. Brendan Evans

105. Source: Historical and Cultural Society of Clay County

106. Good
How we’d like
OUR ABILITY TO things to work
PREDICT THE FUTURE
Poor
Short Long
LENGTH OF HYDROLOGICAL RECORD

109. Good
How we’d like
OUR ABILITY TO things to work
PREDICT THE FUTURE
Poor
Short Long
LENGTH OF HYDROLOGICAL RECORD

110. Unrealistically good
OUR ABILITY TO
PREDICT THE FUTURE How things
actually seem
to work
Realistically limited
Short Long
LENGTH OF HYDROLOGICAL RECORD

111. “THIS COMMUNITY HAS BEEN HERE OVER 20 YEARS
AND NEVER HAD A PROBLEM.”
“I DIDN’T THINK [FLOODING] WAS AN ISSUE.”
New York Times, July 30, 2011
Source: US Department of Agriculture

112. 1
We need to be realistic about how well we’re able to
predict how hydrological systems will behave in the future.

113. 2
Making decisions based on recent history can
leave us vulnerable to water-based ‘surprises’.

114. 3
Water resources in other parts of the country are
more vulnerable to climate change, but we still
might feel its effects indirectly.