1. Malawi
General
Elec-on
2014
Analysis
and
Trends
Dr
Gerhard
Anders
Centre
of
African
Studies

2. Tripar-te
Elec-ons
• Presiden-al
elec-ons
• Local
government
elec-ons
• Parliamentary
elec-ons

3.
Results
Presiden-al
Elec-ons
Registered
voters:
7,475,806;
votes
cast:
5,288,258,
turnout:
70.8%.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Mutharika:
36.4%
Chakwera:
27.8%
J.
Banda:
20.2%
A.
Muluzi:
13.7%
others:
1.8%
Mutharika:
36.4%
C h a k w e r a :
27.8%
J.
Banda:
20.2%
A.
Muluzi:
13.7%
o t h e r s :
1.8%

4. Comparison
with
2009
Presiden-al
elec-on
In
2014,
Peter
Mutharika
(DPP):
36.4
%
(1,904,399).
In
2009,
Bingu
Wa
Mutharika
(DPP):
65.98%
(2,946,103).
In
2014,
Lazarus
Chakwera
(MCP):
27.8%
(1,056,236).
In
2009,
John
Tembo
(MCP):
30.69%
(1,370,044).
In
2014,
Atupele
Muluzi
(UDF):
13.7%
(717,224).
No
candidate
in
2009.
In
2004,
Bingu
Mutharika
(UDF):
35.9%.
In
2014,
Joyce
Banda
(PP):
20.2%
(1,056,236).

5. 2014
Local
Government
Elec-ons
2nd
local
government
elec-ons
in
Malawi‘s
history.
The
last
were
held
in
2000
with
only
17%
turnout
won
by
the
UDF
(70%).
In
2014,
457
seats
with
total
votes
5,153,993
(turnout
68.99%).
DPP:
165
seats
MCP:
131
seats
PP:
65
seats
UDF:
57
seats
CCP:
2
seats
AFORD:
1
seat
Women
won
56
and
men
401
seats
(14%).

6. Results
Parliamentary
Elec-ons
DPP:
50
seats
MCP:
48
seats
PP:
26
seats
UDF:
14
seats
AFORD:
1
seat
Chipani
cha
Pfuko:
1
Independents:
52
seats
Total:
193
seats,
5,234,506
votes
(turnout:
70.07%)

7. Comparison
with
2009
parliamentary
elec-on
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2009
2014
DDP
MCP
UDF
Independents
PP

8. Changes
DPP
lost
64
seats.
These
were
won
by
MCP
(+22
seats),
PP
(+
26
seats)
and
independents
(+20
seats).
MCP
made
impressive
gains
but
has
become
a
regional
party.
The
rise
of
the
PP
split
the
Southern
vote
between
DPP,
PP
and
UDF
plus
a
large
number
of
independents.
Number
of
female
MPs
fell
from
41
(21.24%)
in
2009
to
30
seats
(18.5%).
Conclusions:
Peter
Mutharika
is
indeed
not
very
popular
but
Joyce
Banda
has
not
succeeded
in
turning
the
PP
into
the
same
success
story
as
Mutharika
with
the
DPP.
Her
gains
were
impressive
but
not
enough
support
in
the
South
and
the
urban
areas.
UDF
keeps
losing
ground.
MCP
has
not
succeded
in
reversing
the
trend.

9. Parliamentary
Elec-ons:
North
DPP:
6
seats
MCP:
2
seats
PP:
14
seats
AFORD:
1
seat
Independents:
10
seats
7
districts
(Chi-pa,
Karonga,
Rumphi,
Likoma,
Mzimba,
M‘mbelwa,
Nkhata
Bay),
33
cons-tuencies

10. Parliamentary
Elec-ons:
Central
Region
DPP:
11
seats
MCP:
46
seats
PP:
5
seats
Independents:
11
seats
10
districts,
73
cons-tuencies

11. Parliamentary
Elec-ons:
South
DPP:
33
seats
PP:
8
seats
UDF:
14
seats
Independents:
30
seats
CCP:
1
seat
14
districts,
87
cons-tuencies

12. Summary
Parliamentary
elec-ons
Parliamentary
elec-ons
by
gender:
Female:
30,
Male:
162
(Total:
192)
Cons-tuencies
in
urban
areas
Lilongwe
City:
DPP:
2;
MCP:
1,
Independent:
1
Blantyre
City:
DPP:
6;
Independents:
2
Support
for
DPP
strongest
in
South
(33
seats:
Thyolo,
Chiradzulu,
Mulanje,
Phalombe,
Blantyre)
but
also
strong
in
Ntcheu
(6
seats).
Support
for
MCP
limited
to
Central
Region.
Support
for
PP
mainly
in
the
North
and
Zomba.
Support
for
UDF
limited
to
Mangochi,
Balaka,
Machinga.

13. Long-­‐term
trends
• Judicializa-on,
lawfare.
Since
2004,
courts
have
played
a
more
prominent
role
in
adjudica-ng
conflicts
between
par-es
and
within
par-es.
• Vola-le
and
fragmented
poli-cal
landscape
(chameleon
poli-cs).
The
large
number
of
independents
and
the
situa-onal
loyalty
of
poli-cians
in
combina-on
with
presiden-al
populism
create
instability.
Professor
Kanyongolo
refers
to
this
as
ad
hocism.
• Regional
and
ethnic
poli-cs
is
less
important
than
during
the
1990s.
Compare
2014
and
2009
with
1999
and
1994.

14. Allega-ons
of
vote
rigging
• On
20
May,
several
polling
sta-ons
experience
logis-cal
difficul-es.
This
results
in
protests
and
unrest,
especially
in
Blantyre.
Vo-ng
at
some
polling
sta-ons
extended
to
21
&
22
May.
• On
22
May,
Commonwealth
observers
note
‘serious
shortcomings’
in
distribu-on
of
ballot
papers,
boxes,
forms,
etc.
but
speak
of
‘peaceful,
orderly
and
transparent’
elec-ons.
EU
observa-on
mission
notes
‘considerable
organisa-onal
shortcomings’
but
assesses
‘overall
conduct
of
vo-ng
as
being
good
or
very
good
in
92%
of
404
polling
sta-ons’.
The
mission
praises
MEC
as
‘impar-al’
and
‘inclusive’.
Vote
coun-ng
informa-on
system
collapses.
• Joyce
Banda
holds
a
press
conference
where
she
claims
fraud.
She
also
applies
to
High
Court
for
an
injunc-on
to
stop
MEC
from
announcing
the
results.
High
Court
rejects
applica-on.
• On
23
May,
unofficial
figures
confirm
that
Mutharika
and
DPP
are
in
the
lead,
with
MCP
second
and
PP
third.
• On
24
May,
30%
of
results
released
confirming
these
figures.
Joyce
Banda
tries
to
annul
the
elec-ons,
calling
for
a
stop
of
vote
coun-ng
and
sugges-ng
new
elec-ons
within
90
days.
• On
29
May,
MEC
chair
Judge
Mbendera
speaks
of
‘free,
fair
and
transparent’
elec-ons,
65
polling
sta-ons
under
inves-ga-on.
75%
of
the
votes
are
‘verified
and
tallied’.
248
complaints
processed,
216
resolved,
26
further
evidence
requested,
6
incomplete.
MEC
proposes
30
days
for
physical
recount.
Recount
blocked
by
court
injunc-ons.
• On
30
May,
High
Court
decides
that
no
extension
for
a
recount
will
be
given
(sec-on
99
of
PPE
Act).
Count
cannot
extend
the
8
day
period.
Mbendera
announces
results.

15. Context
• A
climate
of
suspicion
in
the
run-­‐up,
• Most
opinion
polls
suggested
Banda
is
the
frontrunner,
• Logis-cal
and
technical
problems,
• Lawfare
with
a
barrage
of
injunc-ons.

16. What
will
happen
next?
Chameleon
poli-cs:
many
independents
will
join
DPP.
Art.
65
might
prevent
PP
from
joining
DPP.
Treason
charges
against
Mutharika
will
be
dropped.
Cashgate
inves-ga-ons
will
include
Joyce
Banda.
Recount
will
fizzle
out
with
inconclusive
results.