Brief summary of research findings from Frost & Sullivan's study focused on global BRT market

1. Strategic Analysis of Global Bus Rapid Transit Systems
Market
Market to Double Through Growth in Demand From New Regions and
Advanced BRT Solutions
Global
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March 2012

2. Research Team
Analyst
Analyst
Bharani Lakshminarasimhan
Ryan Carmichael
Research Analyst, Automotive & Transportation
Research Analyst, Automotive & Transportation
+91 44 66814122
bharanil@frost.com
Program Director
+1.416.490.1274
ryan.carmichael@frost.com
Strategic Review Committee Leader
Sandeep Kar
Sarwant Singh
Global Director, Automotive & Transportation
Partner, Automotive & Transportation
+1.416.490.7796
sandeep.kar@frost.com
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+44 207 915 7843
sarwant.singh@frost.com
2

3. Contents
Section
Slide Numbers
Executive Summary
6
Research Methodology, Geographical Scope and Partial List of Companies Interviewed
20
BRT Systems Market – Overview and Definition
26
Bus Rapid Transit Systems – Global Best Practices Comparative Analysis
30
a. BRT Standard
32
b. BRT Bus Standard
33
c. BRT Bus Powertrain Standard
34
d. Global BRT Systems-Hot Spot Analysis
35
e. Comparative Analysis of Top 3 BRTs
37
f. Case Study-Guangzhou BRT
39
Market & Technology Dynamics for BRT systems
41
a. Market Drivers and Restraints
b. Product Life Cycle Analysis of BRT Systems
47
c. Global BRT Vehicle Market—Value Chain Analysis
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50
3

4. Contents
Section
Slide Numbers
Total Market Measurements
51
a. Global BRT Vehicle Unit Shipments Forecast
52
b. Global BRT Vehicle Powertrain Penetration Forecast
54
c. Global BRT Vehicle – Bus Length Configuration Forecast
56
d. Global BRT Vehicle OEM Unit Shipments Forecast- Region Wise
57
Bus Rapid Transit Systems Market– Regional Profiles
59
a. Latin America
60
b. China
68
c. India
75
d. Europe
84
e. North America
92
f. Rest of World
99
BRT Systems – Need Evaluation and Analysis
108
a. Mega Trends Influencing the BRT Market
b. Transit Solutions- Comparative Analysis
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111
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5. Contents
Section
Slide Numbers
BRT systems – Design, Development and Implementation process
114
a. BRT Evolution
115
b. BRT System Design and Implementation
116
c. Service Design
118
d. Operational Model
119
e. BRT Cost Structure
120
f. BRT Financing Models
121
g. Bus OEMs Value Proposition in BRT
122
h. Integrated Mobility
123
BRT Vehicle Analysis
125
Strategic Recommendations and Conclusion
133
a. Key Research Findings
134
b. Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
135
Appendix
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5

6. Executive Summary
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7. Executive Summary—Key Findings
1
Globally Over 100 BRT Lines are currently operational or under various stages of
implementation. This translates into enormous market potential for new vehicle
purchase and replacement demand as well.
2
The global BRT vehicle market is set to reach over 7800 units by 2018. Latin America
and China alone to account for over 58 per cent of the total market.
3
Volvo to retain global leadership with over 30 per cent global market share by 2018.
Daimler emerging top competitor with 19 per cent share by 2018.
4
Diesel to remain dominant powertrain system over the forecast period. Alternative
fuel powertrain penetration is set to triple and reach over 20 per cent by 2018.
5
By 2018 18-24m, low-floor, telematics enabled buses to feature in most BRT lines
across the world.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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8. Executive Summary—BRT Evolution : Informal Services to Full BRT – Bus Rapid Transit is
Now Increasingly Being Viewed as a Viable and Effective Mode of Mass Transit in Urban Centers
in Both Developed and Developing World
Global BRT Systems Market : BRT Evolution (Global), 2011
Full BRT
BRT Lite
•
Busways
Conventional
Services
•
•
Informal
Services
•
•
•
•
Non Regulated
Operators
Taxi
Like
Services
•
•
On-Board Fare
Collection
Poor Customer
Service
Often
subsidized
operations
•
•
Segregated
Bus Ways
On-Board
fare
collection
Standard
vehicles and
stations
•
•
•
Segregated
bus ways
Pre-board fare
collection and
verification
Higher Quality
Stations
Clean vehicle
Technology
Open
BRT
system with no
cap
on
operators
•
•
•
Integrated
Routes
(Feeder
routes
connecting the
central trunk
line)
Closed, high
quality
Stations
Flexible
frequencies
Variable
services(All
Stop
and
Express)
Evolution of BRT Services
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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9. Executive Summary—Global BRT Systems Hot Spot Analysis: Globally
Over 100 BRT Lines are Currently Operational or Under Different Stages of Implementation
Global BRT Systems Market : Hot Spot Analysis (Global), 2011-2018
North America
China-India
Existing BRT with expansion
plans
New BRT systems in the
planning phase
Latin America
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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10. Executive Summary—Voice of Customer Research for Overall Public
Experience in Relation to Transport Mode
Strong Potential for BRTs in Many Major Urban Centers in Asia and Europe
Journey Experience Index (JEI) tends to be higher among cities with a higher
share of individual transport
100%
Share Individual Transport
90%
Car
focused
cities
15
4
80%
2
3
4
5
6
21
7
13
3
8
70%
9
24 23
20
60%
10
11
11
5
17
50%
1
2
12
14
13
Public transport
focused cities
6
16
8
40%
22
18 10
7
30%
14
15
16
9
12
17
18
19
19
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Share Public Transport
n=7,185; Q7: Mode of transport used, Q34: Indexed (Bubble Size = JEI (Journey Experience Index))
JEI for car focused cities is higher than public transport focused cities
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1
20
21
22
23
24
Total
New York
Seattle
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Mexico City
Rio de Janeiro
Copenhagen
London
Paris
Frankfurt
Moscow
Dubai
Cairo
Johannesburg
Beijing
Shanghai
Seoul
Tokyo
New Delhi
Kuala Lumpur
Singapore
Jakarta
Sydney
10

11. Executive Summary—Voice of Customer Research For BRT as a Solution
Overcrowding, Traffic and Speed Cited as 3 Most Frustrating Aspects of Public
Transit
1 out of 2 individual and 2 of 3 public transport users are frustrated with the traffic situation. But differences exist by region:
In Americas a significant lower individual transport frustration level can be seen, whereas in APAC the difference between
the two modes is the smallest.
Frustration by mode is for both primarily caused by one reason: traffic congestions in individual and overcrowding in public
transport
Reasons for Frustration
Reasons for Frustration
Individual Transport
Public Transport
Overcrowding
Traffic
11%
4%
32%
53%
Total
Speed
Other
9%
3%
22%
Traffic
Speed
Other
No frustrations
No frustrations
10%
4%
30%
65%
56%
Americas
EMEA
12%
4%
42%
42%
APAC
14%
11%
12%
14%
12%
13%
14%
9%
11%
31%
24%
29%
32%
37%
37%
Total
Americas
EMEA
13%
11%
13%
37%
26%
APAC
Q28: What,, if anything, was the most frustrating or annoying part of this trip?
Concerns over overcrowding, traffic and speed in urban transportation could be overcome by an efficient BRT system.
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12. Executive Summary—Comparison with Other Transit Solutions
BRT Emerging as a Sustainable Compared to Light Rail and Conventional Bus
Global BRT Systems Market : Transit Solutions- Comparative Analysis(Global), 2011
Light Rail
BRT
Conventional Bus
5
Efficiency - [5], [4.5], [3]
Ratings : [Light Rail], [BRT], [Conventional Bus]
4
Route Flexibility
[1], [4], [5]
Capital Expenditure
[1], [4.5], [5]
3
2
1
Environmental Footprint
[5], [4], [2]
Network (Distance)
[2], [4], [5]
0
Passenger Information System
[5], [4.5], [2]
Total Ratings:
Light Rail – 34
BRT – 39
Conventional Bus - 29
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Flexible Frequency
[5], [5], [2]
Off Vehicle Fare Collection
[5], [4.5], [2]
Journey experience
[5], [4.5], [2]
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
12

13. Executive Summary—Integrated Mobility
The 10,000 to 15,000 pphpd Capacity that BRT provides Can Bridge the Gap Between High
Capacity Upstream Urban Rail Systems and Low Capacity Downstream Transportation Options
•
Urban
Transportation
Puzzle
Urban
Rail
•
Subways and heavy metro systems are
available in city centers in urban areas.
Operating capacities of 70,000-120,000
pphpd.
BRT
Conventional
Bus Systems
Ideal capacity of 10,00015,000 pphpd to bridge the
gap.
Car Sharing
Bike Sharing
Bicycle
Walking
•
•
Conventional buses can handle capacities in the range of 3,000
to 5,000 pphpd.
Car sharing, bike sharing and other non-motorized transportation
options emerge critical in delivering the last mile connectivity.
Passenger Per Hour Per Direction (pphpd)
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Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
13

14. Executive Summary—Global BRT Vehicle Unit Shipments Forecast
Latin America and China Alone Absorbed Over 3 Thousand BRT Vehicles in 2011; Indian,
North American and European Markets Growing at a Fast Pace
Global BRT Systems Market: Unit Shipment Forecast- Region Wise (Global), 2011 and 2018
Europe
800
North America
600
600
400
200
CAGR
Unit Shipments
CAGR
400
200
17 %
China
2000
1500
17.8 %
CAGR
1000
0
2011
2018
500
0
5.8 %
0
2011
2018
1500
2011
India
CAGR
1000
Latin America
3000
22.1 %
500
4000
CAGR
Rest of World
0
2011
2000
1500
2018
6.9 %
1000
1000
CAGR
0
2011
2018
2018
5.6 %
500
0
2011
Base Year, End Year
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2018
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
14

15. Executive Summary—Global BRT Powertrain Penetration Forecast
Diesel to Remain Dominant Propulsion Fuel Over the Forecast Period Albeit With Shrinking
Demand as Alternative Fuel Powered BRTs Gain Rapid Proliferation
Global BRT Systems Market: Unit Shipments- Powertrain Mix (Global), 2011 and 2018
Altenate Fuel
Diesel
4,000
2018 Regional Shares
7,874
3,000
14.9 %
4,341
6.8 %
20.4 %
2,000
85.1 %
8.0 %
26.0 %
93.2 %
1,000
74.0 %
35.3 %
59.5 %
40.5 %
0
2011
•
•
79.6 %
13.0 %
Latin
America
North
America
87.0 %
92.0%
64.7 %
Europe
China
India
Rest of
World
2018
Market for advanced powertarin technologies is expected to increase across the forecast period as
concerns over energy security and climate change emerge as key driving factors.
North America, Europe and China emergeing as key growth markets for advanced powertrain
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
technologies.
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16. BRT Bus Built Analysis-Length Configuration: Mapping Bus Configurations with
Service Design is Critical; Long Articulated Buses Have Greater Acceptance in Trunk Service
Compared to Direct Service
BRT Applicability
Length Configuration
Direct Service
Trunk Service
Standard 12m
12 m
Articulated
18 m
Bi-articulated
24 m
High
Low
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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17. BRT Standard: Segregated Bus Ways with Level Boarding Stations Considered Best Fit for
Efficient BRT Operations; Migration of Operation Model in China and India Towards Closed
System Compelling Bus OEMs to Focus on Product Competitiveness
Operational Model
Strong Trend Towards 2018
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Level Boarding
Non Level Boarding
Segregated
Partially Segregated
Closed
Operation
Public
Operations
Service Design
Open
Operations
Trunk and
Combination
Feeder Service
Direct Service
Global BRT Systems Market : BRT Standard Overview (Global), 2011-2018
Bus ways
Moderate Trend Towards 2018
Station Interface
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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Focused on
Growth
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Coverage
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first mover advantage in emerging opportunities
Bottom up research methodology based on 80% of research generated
through primary interviews providing a full 360° view of the industry
Best Practices
Case-based profiles that help executives use best-in-class approaches
to address strategic, organizational and operational issues
Macro-to-micro
Method
Our Mega Trends team helps clients understand the sub trends and,
through a well proven methodology of macro-to-micro, supports
evaluating and identifying opportunities
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Systems
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Technologies
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Security
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and Process Control
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