1. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012

2. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
Utah Positioned
for the Future …
Natalie Gochnour
Salt Lake Chamber
November 18, 2011

3. Top of Mind Words | U.S. Economy
Skittish
Vulnerable
Uncertain
Flat
Frustrating
Dispirited
Underperforming
Glum
Sour
Angry

5. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
“We are seeing the worst
economic numbers since the
collapse of Lehman Brothers in
2008…We are poised for a
Lehman-like event.”
Fareed Zakaria
Global Public Square
September 25, 2011

6. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
“The U.S. economy is surrounded
and unable to break through
enemy lines.”
Wells Fargo Securities Economic Group
September 7, 2011

7. What is going on?

8. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012

9. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012

10. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012

11. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012

12. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
“We can have a hard
decade or a bad century.”
Thomas Friedman

13. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
“It makes no sense for China to have
a better rail system than us, and
Singapore having better airports than
us. And we just learned that China
now has the fastest supercomputer
on earth – that used to be us.”
- President Barack Obama

14. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
"My biggest beef is that this is part of what's
happened in this country…I think we've become
wussies. ... We've become a nation of wusses.
The Chinese are kicking our butt in everything. If
this was in China do you think the Chinese
would have called off the game? People would
have been marching down to the stadium, they
would have walked and they would have been
doing calculus on the way down.”
- Gov. Rendell

15. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012

16. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012

17. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012

18. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
Demography is destiny
Economic diversification
Global engagement
Fiscal prudence

19. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
Population Percent Change: 2000-2010
NH
6.5%
WA ME
14.1% VT 4.2% MA
ND 2.8% 3.1%
MT 4.7% MN
9.7% 7.8%
OR NY
12.0% ID SD WI 2.1% RI
21.1% 7.9% 6.0% MI 0.4%
WY -0.6% PA CT
14.1% IA 3.4% 4.9%
NE 4.1% OH
6.7% IL IN 1.6% NJ
NV UT 3.3% WV VA 4.5%
6.6%
35.1% 23.8% CO 2.5% 13.0%
KS MO KY DE
CA 16.9% 7.0%
6.1% 7.4% 14.6%
10.0%
NC 18.5%
TN 11.5% SC
AZ OK AR DC MD
NM 8.7% 15.3%
24.6% 9.1% 5.2% 9.0%
13.2% MS AL GA
4.3% 7.5% 18.3%
TX LA
20.6% 1.4%
FL
17.6%
25% or more
AK
13.3% 15% to 25%
5% to 15%
HI U.S. Rate = 9.7% 0% to 5%
12.3% Population Loss
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census

20. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
Most Diversified Economies in the Country
Index of economic diversity, U.S. = 100
Source: GOPB Analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis Data, Hachman Index

21. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
Utah Merchandise Exports
16 Billions of $
13.81
14
12
10.3 10.34
10
7.8
8 6.8
6.1
6 4.7
4.5 4.1
4
2
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: World Trade Center Utah

22. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
State of Utah Rainy Day Fund
Combined General and Education Funds
(millions)
$450
$413.8 $418.5
$400
$350
$313.4
$300
$254.9
$250
$209.8
$200
$146.1
$150
$106.0
$100 $66.9
$50 $27.1
$19.5
$0
FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Source: Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget

23. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
Utah Job Growth
4.0% Monthly Year Over Percent Change
2.9% 2.8%
3.0% 2.5%
2.1%
2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
1.8%
1.6% 1.5% 1.6%
1.2%
1.0%
1.0% 0.7% 0.8%
0.0%
-1.0%
-1.4%
-2.0% -1.9%
-2.3%
-3.0% -2.8% -2.9%
-3.1%
-3.3%
-4.0%
-4.1%
-4.4%
-5.0%

24. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
Utah Labor Market Indicators
September 2011
Utah unemployment rate 7.4%
U.S. unemployment rate 9.1%
Year-over Utah job growth rate 2.8%
Year-over U.S. job growth rate 1.1%
# Unemployed in Utah 99,400
# Discouraged workers in Utah 35,000-65,000
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services and Salt Lake Chamber

25. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
Utah Job Growth by Industry
September 2010–2011
Total 2.8
Natural Resources 6.2
Construction -0.4
Manufacturing 5.7
Trade, Trans, Utilities 3.0
Information 2.7
Financial Activities 0.6
Prof. and Business 7.0
Education and Health 2.4
Leisure and Hospitality 4.2
Other Services 2.5
Government -0.8
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Year-Over Percent Change
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

26. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
Utah Weekly Unemployment Claims
4-week moving average
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Source: U.S. Dept of Labor, Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Data

27. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
Utah’s Fastest Growing Detailed Industries
(Year-over job growth shown in percentage)
- Heavy and civil engineering – 15.0%
- Internet service providers – 12.4%
- Computer systems design – 11.2%
- Professional, scientific and technical services – 10.4%
- Employment services – 8.2%
- Administration support – 6.7%
- Computer and electronic products – 6.5%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

28. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
Utah Economic Development Wins
- Adobe (930) - Pepperidge Farms (55)
- Black Diamond Equipment (55) - NSA Center (7,000 const/300
- ATK (820) perm) Litehouse (20)
- Litehouse (20) - eBay (50+)
- Overstock (150) - Oracle (100)
- ITT Corporation (2700) - Sephora (500)
- Edwards Life Sciences (1,075) - Hershey (125)
- Merit Medical (400) - Procter and Gamble (600)
- Goldman Sachs (700) - IM Flash
- EA Sports (100) - Reckitt Benckiser (100+)
- Royal Bank of Scotland - Incomm (100+)
Note: Job growth shown in parentheses
Source: Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce

29. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
European debt crisis
Political dysfunction
Housing recovery
Lower commodity prices
Consumer confidence
MENA crises

30. THE IVORY INSTITUTE
New View Ivory 2012
U.S.
Two years of correction
Corporate profits
Falling labor costs
Utah
Demography is destiny
Economic diversification
Global engagement
Fiscal prudence
Downtown Rising
PAC 12