As oportunidades e desafios da transição demográfica são o tema da apresentação divulgada por membros da SAE/PR durante o seminário “População e Desenvolvimento na Agenda do Cairo: balanço e desafios”, realizado nos dias 21 e 22 de fevereiro, em Brasília. Autores: Ricardo Paes de Barros, Diana Coutinho e Rosane Mendonça. Saiba mais: www.sae.gov.br

1. Demographic Transition and
Post-Transition: Opportunities
and Challenges
Ricardo Paes de Barros
Diana Coutinho
Rosane Mendonça
Mpumalanga, March 2014

2. Brazilian demographic transition
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
ratesperthousandpersons
Brazilian Population Dynamics: 1880-2060
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
Crude birth rate
Crude death rate
Net migration rate
Natural growth rate
Population growth rate
Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV Stage V
2014
3%
2%
1%
0%
2%

3. 0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
TotalFertilityRate(birthsperwomen)
Actual and Predicted Evolution of Total Fertility Rate : Brazil, 1940-2060
40 years
1/3
6 births
2 births
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
Fertility decline

4. Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty,
public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12.
Brazil: Income and Private Consumption, 2008
Labor Income
Consumption
Economic dependency

5. Demographic bonus
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
population(million)
Evolution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups: 1900 to 2060
Less than 15 or at
least 60 years old
Between 15 and
59 years old
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

6. Demographic bonus
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
population(million)
Evolution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups: 1900 to 2060
Less than 15 or at
least 60 years old
Between 15 and
59 years old
65
million
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

7. Demographic bonus
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
percentageofthepopulation(%)
Evolution of the Distribution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups:
1900 to 2060
Between 15 and
59 years old
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
Less than 15 or at
least 60 years old
30 p.p.

8. Evolution of average schooling by birth cohort:
Brazil
Born in 1980
in Brazil
Born in 1952
in Chile 28 years behind
Birth year
Averageschooling
Human capital investment

9. Ensuring youth full development

10. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
ThousandsUS$(2005)perworkerperyear
The Evolution of the Average Labor Productivity
Selected countries: 1950-2011
Japan
Korea
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
China
Source: SAE/PR based on the Penn World Tables.
Labor productivity as GDP/worker (Real GDP at constant 2005 national prices).
Labor productivity

11. 0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000
LaborProductivityin2011
(US$(2005)peryearperworker)
Labor Productivity in 1980 (US$ (2005) per year per worker)
Ratio between labor productivity in 1980 and 2011
Brazil
Korea
Source: SAE/PR based on the Penn World Tables.
Labor productivity as GDP/worker (Real GDP at constant 2005 national prices).
China
Labor productivity

12. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Extremapobreza(%)
Idade
Extrema pobreza por idade: Brasil, 2009
Média nacional
Possibilidades de melhoria
Extreme poverty by age: Brazil, 2009
Age
Extremepoverty(%)
National average
Public and intergenerational transfers

13. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Extremapobreza(%)
Idade
Extrema pobreza por idade: Brasil, 2009
Média nacional
Excluindo transferências
públicas
Incluindo transferências públicas
Possibilidades de melhoria
Extreme poverty by age: Brazil, 2009Extreme poverty by age: Brazil, 2009
Age
Extremepoverty(%)
National average
Including public transfers
Excluding public
transfers
Public and intergenerational transfers

14. Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty,
public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12.
Ratio of net per capita public transfers (elderly to children)
Public and intergenerational transfers

15. Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty,
public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12.
Public Transfers as a Percent of Total Consumption
Public and intergenerational transfers

16. Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty,
public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12.
Brazil: Expenditure per person by age group, 2006
Public and intergenerational transfers

17. Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty,
public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12.
Brazil: Income and Private Consumption, 2008
Labor Income
Consumption
Public transfers and economic independence at older ages

18. Public transfers and economic independence at older ages
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
(%)
Anos
Evolution of the percentage of older persons in families with per capita
income below his/her personal income: Brazil, 1981-2012
Source: SAE/PR based on PNADs (IBGE) from 1981 to 2012.
At least 70 years old
At least 60 years old

19. Health transition
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
LifeExpectancyatBirth(years)
Actual and Predicted Evolution of Life Expectancy at Birth: Brazil, 1910-2060
2014
1/2 extra year of life
per calendar year
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
40
70

20. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
percentageofthepopulation(%)
Evolution of the Distribution of the Brazilian Population by Age Groups:
1900 to 2060
Under 15
years old
At least 60
years old
Between 15 and
59 years old
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
Less than 15 or at
least 60 years old
Population aging

21. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Distribuiçãodapopulação(%)
Evolution of the percentage of old-age population:
Brazil, 1990-2060
At least 60
years old
At least 70
years old
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
2014
Population aging

22. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Distribuiçãodapopulação(%)
Evolution of the percentage of old-age population:
Brazil, 1990-2060
At least 60
years old
At least 70
years old
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE
2014
Population aging

23. Population aging
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
peopleaged65andmoreperhundredchildren
Evolution of the number of people aged 65 and above per
hundred children under age 15: Brazil, 1900 to 2060
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

24. Population aging
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
peopleaged65andmoreperhundredchildren
Evolution of the number of people aged 65 and above per
hundred children under age 15: Brazil, 1900 to 2060
2014
Source: SAE/PR based on population records and projections from IBGE

25. Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty,
public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12.
Number of years for population 65+ to increase
from 7% to 14%
Speed of the population aging

26. Caring for dependent old-age persons
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
(%)
Anos
Percentage of old persons living in households without any person younger
than 55 years old: Brazil, 1981-2012
Fonte: SAE/PR, com base nas PNADs (IBGE) de 1981 a 2012.
At least 60
years old
At least 70
years old

27. Challenges to public policy for a older population
1. Increase in life expectancy need to be accompanied by
reduction in morbidity and expansion of the working
life cycle.
2. Exponential increase in social security costs requires
Brazil to adjust social security rules to the real needs
and working potential of the elderly.
3. Adjustment must be fast, since the aging of the
population has been very fast and it takes a life time to
adjust.
4. Inevitable increase in health expenditures.
5. Increase in demand for long-term care for dependent
old persons. Defining the roles for the family and public
services.

28. Economic development and international migration
In 1900, Brazil has
reached 7.3% of the
population composed
of immigrants, today it
has just 0.3%.
International Migration to Brazil
Fonte: Censos Demográficos

29. Region
Immigrants
(millions)
Immigrants over
65years old
(millions)
Immigrants over
65years of age
as a percentage
of the immigrant
population
World 214 24,7 12
Africa 19 0,8 4
Asia 61 6,3 10
Europe 70 9,7 14
North America 50 5,9 12
Latin Amerrica and
Caribbean
7 0,9 13
Oceania 6 1,1 18
Brazil 0,6 0,2 36
Age structure of immigrants in Brazil and in the World
5x
Latin America
Average
10x
World
Average
50x
North America and
Oceania Average
Fonte: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2009) e Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de
Domicílios (PNAD, 2009).
Economic development and international migration

30. Além da pouca mobilidade de pessoas,
há pouca mobilidade de conhecimento
Quase 13 em cada 1000 residentes na
Austrália estão estudando fora ou são
estrangeiros estudando no país.
No Chile, o número cai
para 0,5; no Brasil, para 0,2.