The document discusses limitations of previous adaptation studies in addressing institutional dimensions of adaptation. It argues that studies have focused too much on modeling potential climate impacts and too little on policy-relevant recommendations. While studies identify adaptation strategies like developing new crop varieties and improving irrigation, they provide little guidance on implementing these strategies institutionally. The document calls for adaptation studies to better address critical institutional issues like agricultural research systems, water resources management, and extension services. Framing adaptation as primarily an engineering problem ignores larger collective action and institutional challenges. Future studies need courage to engage more directly with these messy institutional dimensions central to enabling effective adaptation.

1. Adaptation Studies: Take it to the
next level
Robert Schneider

2. Organization of my presentation
• How have recent adaptation studies been
structured?
• Their adaptation recommendations for the
agricultural sector.
• Lack of policy-relevant detail.
• Tendency to treat adaptation as an
engineering problem. Failure to address the
critical institutional dimension.
• Need to do better.

3. Experience based on World Bank Adaptation
Study and the Brazil “Mini-Stern study.
• World Bank Economics of Adaptation
– Joined Sector studies at Global level. All
sector studies based on models. Ag sector
linked climate model to a crop growth
model to a Computable General Equilibrium
Agricultural Trade Model (CGE)at the world
level (IFPRI conducted the study). IFPRI
looked at 2 adaptation strategies. Ag R&D,
AG research

4. 7 Country Case Studies
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Bangladesh
Bolivia
Ethiopia
Ghana
Mozambique
Samoa
Vietnam

5. Extremely Model Intensive
• All but Bolivia uses a CGE model to estimate
economy-wide effects of climate change and
adaptation measures.
• All but Samoa used a crop model to estimate
climate effect on yields. DSSAT, AQUACROP,
CliCrop
• All but Samoa incorporated some kind of runoff
model
• Several had climate-road models
• Samoa modeled cyclone intensity probability
densities

6. Typical country study structure

7. Mini-Stern Study (Margulis et al)
• Used HadRM3P, regional model downscaled to
50kmX50 km cells (Marengo)
• CGE model for economy-wide effects of climate
change (Haddad) and
• Water balance for 12 basins (Salati)
• Energy study/model (COPPE, Schaeffer)
• Crop model Climate risk zoning system (Hilton,
Assad)
• Land allocation model (IPEA, Feres)
• Coastal zone study. (COPPE, Rosman)

8. Adaptation recommendations from
these studies
• All recommended adaptation of cultivars through
genetic breeding. How? Only Hilton and Assed had
advice.
• All recommend increased irrigation. Public or private?
How to manage?
• Most recommend improved drainage. How to
maintain?
• All recommend improved water management/river
basin planning. How to achieve?
• Most recommend improving extension service. How?
• Several recommend improving rural education. How?

9. Why are these studies not more policy
useful?
• Focus on calculating climate losses leads to
model-intensive methods.
• Modelers have models ready. But the models too
often determine the questions that are asked.
• Models are excellent for imposing discipline on
our thinking, but often ignore complicated issues
of human behavior.
• We cannot let models continue to prevent us
from addressing issues which are critical to a
balanced analysis.

10. Institutional Issues Critical to Address
Adaptation in the Agricultural Sector I
• What is the best climate adaptation agricultural
research strategy? Should address adapted
cultivars, and climate-driven agricultural pest and
phytosanitary issues (example of mountain pine
beetle—destroyed 15 million hectares of pine
forest in British Colombia, due too unusually hot,
dry summers and mild winters).
• Does EMBRAPA’s research program constitute an
adequate adaptation response?

11. Institutional Issues Critical to Address
Adaptation in the Agricultural Sector II
• Integrated Water Resources Management. Is
integrated water resource management in
Brazil on track?
• Which basins are currently facing water
conflicts.
• Are water conflicts being effectively managed?
• If not, why not? Are there success stories?
What lessons can be learned?

12. Institutional Issues Critical to Address
Adaptation in the Agricultural Sector III
• Are there effective institutions in place to get
new technology and innovation to all classes
of farmers?
• Who receives technical assistance and who
doesn’t. Are there good technical assistance
models in Brazil—especially for medium and
small produces? If so can they be scaled up?

13. The adaptation challenge
• The adaptation challenge is to create adaptive
and flexible institutions, and to finance them.
– Institutions that have the capacity to adapt their
agenda in a timely manner as climate signals get more
certain.
– Institutions that find the most effective balance
between provision of public goods and providing
incentives to the private sector, and
– Institutions that can effectively solve collective action
problems (water management, pest control,
agricultural extension)

14. We need to stop treating adaptation as if it is an
engineering problem.
It is a small engineering problem and a very
large collective action/institutional problem.
It is a development problem that takes on
added importance with a changing climate.
We will miss the chance to make a difference if
we do not have the courage to take on the
messiness of the institutional dimensions of
adaptation.

15. Thank You

16. Biome
Temperature
Precipitation
Observations
- 25% to -30% More drastic changes with continued
deforestation, +4°, -40% precip., longer
dry seasons/dry spells, more frequent
droughts.
Caatinga (semi- +1.5° to +2.5° - 25% to -35% Regional water balance deteriorates
arid Northeast)
severely, river flow drastically reduced, sea
level rise
+3° to +3.5°
- 20% to -35% Regional water balance deteriorates,
Cerrado
reduced surface runoff. More irregular
(savanna in
and extreme rainfall.
Center-West)
+1.5° to +2°
+15% to
Improved water balance, increased
Atlantic
+20%
frequency of floods, possibly cyclones, sea
Forest –
level rise
Amazon
Southeast
and South
Pampas
(South)
+3° to +3.5°
+1° to +1.5°
+15% to
+20%
Improved water balance, increase in
extreme rainfall events, cyclones, heat
waves
Report by the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change, September 2013.
http://www.pbmc.coppe.ufrj.br/documentos/MCTI_PBMC_Sumario%20Executivo%204_Fi
nalizado.pdf

17. The Fifth Assessment of the IPCC
An extremely honest, careful assessment of the state
of climate science

18. State of the Art of Projections (AR5)
• The simulation of large-scale patterns of precipitation has improved
somewhat since the AR4, although models continue to perform less well
for precipitation than for surface temperature. The spatial pattern
correlation between modelled and observed annual mean precipitation
has increased from 0.77 for models available at the time of the AR4 to
0.82 for current models.
• At regional scales, precipitation is not simulated as well, and the
assessment remains difficult owing to observational uncertainties.
• Projected changes in soil moisture and surface run off are not robust in
many regions.
• There is low confidence in projections of the collapse of large areas of
tropical and/or boreal forests.

19. Extreme weather and climate events: Global-scale assessment of recent observed changes, human
contribution to the changes, and projected further changes for the early (2016–2035) and late (2081–
2100) 21st century. Bold indicates where the AR5 (black) provides a revised global-scale assessment from
the SREX (blue) or AR4 (red). Projections for early 21st century were not provided in previous
assessment reports. Projections in the AR5 are relative to the reference period of 1986–2005, and use
the new RCP scenarios.

20. Implications for agriculture
• Warmer days and nights.