12. AIM Critically analyse Afghan imbroglio, spanning areas of friction with Pakistan with a view to ascertaining future shape of Afghanistan in order to recommend a broad based response strat for safeguarding our national interests
13. SEQ Part-1Fact File & events leading to 9/11 Part-2External Dynamics of Afghan Imbroglio and areas of friction with Pakistan Part-3Present State of Afghanistan Part-4Future Shape of Afghanistan & Emerging Scenarios Part-5Recommendations
27. Love for freedom and resistance to any foreign invasion.
28. Strong tribal system and Loyalty to own tribe.
29.
30.
31. GEO-STRAT IMP THE NEW ENERGY GREAT GAME Tri Junction of Three Strat Regions Natural Resources of Central Asian States Land Locked Nature of Central Asian States
102. BONN AGREEMENT(PROVISIONS) Political future. Broad based govt Emergency loyajirga within 6 months Constitutionaloyajirga within 18 months Restores 1964 constitutuion Rep of women in LoyaJirga Election of head of state
103. BONN AGREEMENT(CONSTRAINTS) UN and US in favour of NA 18 x ministers from NA 8 x ministers from Rome gp All key portfolios to NA Pushtuns were under rep
104. LOYAJIRGA EMERGENCY LOYAJIRGA Held on 19 Jun It set up the transitional govt CONSTITUTIONAL LOYAJIRGA Held in Dec 2003 Secured a deal on constitution
105. AFGHANISTAN’S NEW CONSTITUTION President Elected for 5 yrs Parliament Consists of two houses WolesiJirga (The house of people) MeshranoJirga (The house of elders) Political Parties Not on the basis of sect, ethnicity, language or region Women 50% seats in MeshranoJirga
106. CONSTITUTIONAL IMPACT Strong presidential system Paves the way for elections Recognises multi ethnic make up Pushtuns remain unhappy Interpretation controversial
107. ISAF Under comd NATO Maj role – security / law and order in the capital 6100 soldiers depl Influence confined to Kabul and Kunduz Eventually to con the entire country
108. AFGHAN NATIONAL ARMY (ANA) Formed in May 2002 Initially local malitia forced to join ANA Later based on volunteers Maj desertions on completion of trg Unlikely to meet the goal of 10,000 soldiers till elections and full str(70,000) till 2010
109. MENACE OF DRUGS Poppy production inc on departure of TALIBANS 3400 MT of Opium in past 3 years Generates 100-200 billion USD per year
110. REASONS FOR DRUG RESURGENCE Strict ban by Taliban- reduction by 90% Post Taliban Govt writ restd to Kabul NATO turning a blind eye to Narco Trade Drug peddling ensures loyality of war lords
111. ELECTIONS - 2004 Postponed till Sep 2004 Voters registration since Dec 2003 Only 2.5 million registered so far Maj impediments are :- Insecurity and violence Non finalization of constituencies Non registration of political parties Slow registration of voters Rivalry between war lords
112. RECONSTRUCTION War and drought Dependent on fin sp 15 billion $ needed 4.5 billion $ pledged Lack of security
114. IMPEDIMENTS No writ beyond Kabul Pushtuns’ alienation War lordism Intervention of neighbours Slow reconstruction Uncertainty of US cmt
115. IMPLICATIONS (POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS) Pakistan’s cont relevance US willingness to negotiate with moderate Talibans Stability on estb of broad based govt Convergence of Pak-Afghan eco interests
116. IMPLICATIONS (AREAS OF CONCERN) Greater Indian influence Elm of mistrust Law and order sit Fallout of op in Tribal Area Ethnic rifts Estranged sp of pushtuns
118. IMP FACTORS Acceptable Ethnic Bal Competing Power Struggle Role of Global and Regional Powers Re-estb of State Institutions Substantial Eco Aid US Cmt (reconst, voters’ regn, elections, ISAF)
119.
120. Status Quo Leads to Divided Afghanistan
121.
122. SCENARIO-1BROAD BASED GOVT Envmt………cont…… Pakistan’s relevance to US Cont Expanded ISAF Warlords brought under govt con ANA and Police Provincial Reconst Teams (PRTs) depl in all maj towns
123. SCENARIO-1BROAD BASED GOVT Implications Pak-Afghan relations improve LIC by India Regional stability Chinese concern Gwadar Port Afghan reconst Extremism marginalized Return of refugees
124. SCENARIO-2STATUS QUO LEADS TO A DIVIDED AFGHANISTAN STAGES Stage-1.Status quo leads to anarchy and sharp ethnic div (upto 5 years) Stage-2.Div on ethnic lines (5-10 years)
125. SCENARIO-2STATUS QUO LEADS TO A DIVIDED AFGHANISTAN Envmt (Stage-1) Disenfranchisement of Pushtuns Northern Alliance Govt in the centre Pushtun marginalized Exiled Elite Pushtun class in the govt Pushtun heartland out of govt con Ethnic divide further widens
126. SCENARIO-2STATUS QUOLEADS TO A DIVIDED AFGHANISTAN Envmt (Stage-1) ANA commits excesses in the south DDRprogramme not successful Reconst Process Taliban and Al-Qaeda tgt coalition ISAF confined To Kabul
127. SCENARIO-2STATUS QUOLEADS TO A DIVIDED AFGHANISTAN Envmt (Stage-2) Factional fighting for con of Kabul USA depends on altn oil pipelines Disappearance of Unified Afghan State Coalition forces pull out Kabul taken over by Pushtun forces Ethnic divide sharpens and Country breaks up
128. SCENARIO-2STATUS QUOLEADS TO A DIVIDED AFGHANISTAN Implications Inc temptation among regional states Regional instability inc Smaller gps and warlords influence Population realignment
129. SCENARIO-2STATUS QUOLEADS TO A DIVIDED AFGHANISTAN Implications Pak-US eco interests jeopardized Most dangerous scenario for Pakistan Issue of Pukhtunistan likely to resurface Altn oil routes
130. SCENARIO-3STATUS QUO LDG TO POL RECONCILIATION STAGES Stage-1 (Status Quo). 1-5 years Stage-2 (Political Reconciliation). 5-10 years
131. SCENARIO-3STATUS QUO LDG TO POL RECONCILIATION Envmt (Stage-1) Elections could not be held Pol impasse cont Pushtun remain marginalized DDR Programme not successful ANA
132. SCENARIO-3STATUS QUO LDG TO POL RECONCILIATION Envmt (Stage-1) Govt tenure expired and extended Taliban and Al-Qaeda Reconst could not gather pace ISAF could not be expanded
133. SCENARIO-3STATUS QUO LDG TO POL RECONCILIATION Envmt (Stage-2) Warlords Law and order improves Pol reconciliation is finally achieved Elections are held Eco activities resume as per Scenario-1
134. SCENARIO-3STATUS QUO LDG TO POL RECONCILIATION Implications Status quo undesirable Instability detrimental to Pakistan’s interests Offn LIC by India Neg effs on Pakistan’s eco Gwadar Port Positive effs
141. Policy based on non-interference, coop in ctr terrorism, anti smuggling and reconst projs
142. DrawbacksPolicy evolved under constrained geo-pol envmt No let-up in anti Pakistan sentiments Heightened security concerns Controversies about Durand Line, Kabul River & border vialations Marginalization of Pashtoons
143. Proactive Policy for Peace (PPP) Proactive version of existing policy Remain engaged at all lvls to safe gd own interests Based on principles of Non-interference Sovereign equality Enhanced trade and economic coop Normalisation/improvement of relations with all
173. Afghan Govt be vigorously pursed for the rel of detained Pakistanis
174. Attn of intl humanitarian orgs (ICRC) and NGOs be carefully drawn towards the plight of Pakistani prisoners, without causing embarrassment to Kabul