2. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity ii
AUTHOR'S DECLARATION
I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this research paper.
I authorize the University of Waterloo to lend this research paper to other institutions or
individuals for the purpose of scholarly research.
I further authorize the University of Waterloo to reproduce this research paper by
photocopying or by other means, in total or in part, at the request of other institutions or
individuals for the purpose of scholarly research.
3. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity iii
Abstract
This research seeks to extend the current understanding of migration behaviour in Canada. It
examines the effect of a community’s economic and social circumstances on its “migration
success”. Four migrant cohorts are considered: youth, young families, immigrants and older
migrants. The Canadian Community Health Survey (Statistics Canada, 2003) and Census
Profiles of Health Regions (Statistics Canada, 2005b) provide the independent variables. The
dependent variable (an estimate of the effect of regional net-migration) is calculated for each
cohort in each health region, using a formula derived from the cohort survival (Newkirk,
2002) and migration by residual (Goetz, 2005) methods. Pearson’s product moment
correlation coefficient is used to find relationships in the data. The results do not confirm
that social capital has an independent effect on migration. Instead, they reaffirm that
migration is primarily an economically-motivated behaviour. However, migration decisions
are clearly confounded by social considerations. Some migrants will trade off economic
wealth for social ties, but economic income provides a foundation for these “higher order”
needs. Community marketers can apply basic consumer behaviour principles to influence
migration decisions. While social capital cannot completely replace economic prosperity, it
can be a valuable tool for community economic development.
4. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity iv
Acknowledgements
This research paper should have been completed last August. But, as you will see, it has been
a self-reflective exercise in balancing multiple motivations.
In June, 2005, I was pleased to accept a position as a Development Officer at the Hants
Regional Development Authority in Windsor, Nova Scotia. The opportunity came at a time
when I should have been writing this paper, but I decided to put my money where my
mouth is and migrate back to Atlantic Canada. The RDA’s Executive Director, Amy
Melmock, and my colleagues Chantelle, Jacqueline, Karen, and Pat were very supportive as I
undertook this writing in the rare spare time our profession affords. Amy graciously provided
me with over a week of paid leave to write and present this paper (so that I might use
vacation time for a real vacation sometime soon).
This paper is the culmination of conversation and inspiration from Janet Larkman, Leslee
Fredericks, Karen Blotnicky, Rick Gilbert, and others. Thank you to my advisor, Paul Parker,
for his understanding of my extended timeline and for his own ex-patriot Bluenose
perspective. Thanks also to Peter Hall, Jean Andrey and my colleagues in the LED program
for ideas and perspectives that fed this work.
My family has been so supportive, despite their difficulty explaining what I do and what I
was writing about. I was delighted to delay this paper for a while when my niece, Emma
Catherine MacNeil-Comeau, was born on February 28, 2006. She has been one of my “other”
motivations.
But my favourite distraction has been Amanda, my love. Thank you for listening, reading,
calming me down, and kicking me in the “arse” when it came time to focus. Most of all,
thank you for teaching me to slow down and choose a more balanced life.
5. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity v
Table of Contents
Abstract .........................................................................................................................................iii
Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................... iv
Table of Contents........................................................................................................................... v
List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ vii
List of Figures ..............................................................................................................................viii
Chapter 1 - Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1
Chapter 2 - Research Context ....................................................................................................... 6
Migration Theory: Cause & Effect ............................................................................................ 6
Migration in Canada .................................................................................................................. 9
Return Migration in Newfoundland....................................................................................... 15
Social Capital Theory and Migration...................................................................................... 18
Local Response Strategies ........................................................................................................ 20
Chapter 3 - Research Procedure ................................................................................................. 23
Data Sources ............................................................................................................................. 23
Population ................................................................................................................................ 24
Procedure ................................................................................................................................. 25
Limitations ............................................................................................................................... 34
Ethics Considerations .............................................................................................................. 36
Chapter 4 - Results....................................................................................................................... 37
6. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity vi
Cross Correlations.................................................................................................................... 37
Low Correlation Results .......................................................................................................... 39
Immigrants ............................................................................................................................... 40
Children (Families) .................................................................................................................. 42
Youth ........................................................................................................................................ 44
Older Migrants......................................................................................................................... 47
Chapter 5 - Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 52
Seducing Migrants ................................................................................................................... 52
The Role of Economics ............................................................................................................ 52
A Hierarchy of Needs .............................................................................................................. 55
The Role of Social Capital ....................................................................................................... 57
Works Cited ................................................................................................................................. 59
Appendix - Health Regions ......................................................................................................... 62
7. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity vii
List of Tables
Table 1. Typical Moorings of Everyday Life ................................................................................ 7
Table 2. Cohorts of Interest......................................................................................................... 27
Table 3. Social Capital Indicator Variables................................................................................. 28
Table 4. Economic and Market-size Variables ........................................................................... 31
Table 5. Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation Coefficient Interpretation........................... 34
Table 6. Participation in tennis, basketball and soccer is higher in wealthy urban regions (r-
values)................................................................................................................................... 38
Table 7. Variables with low correlation to migration success................................................... 39
Table 8. The Importance of Economics and Market-size for Four Migrant Cohorts. ............. 53
8. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity viii
List of Figures
Figure 1. Kotler, Haider and Rein (1993) summarize city decay dynamics. .............................. 3
Figure 2. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs........................................................................................ 9
Figure 3. Immigrant Concentration and Socio-economic Indicators (r-values). ..................... 41
Figure 4. Migration Success (Children – Families) and Socio-economic Indicators (r-values).
............................................................................................................................................... 43
Figure 5. Migration Success (Teenagers) and Socio-economic Indicators (r-values)............... 46
Figure 6. Migration Success (Early-twenty-somethings) and Socio-economic Indicators (r-
values)................................................................................................................................... 46
Figure 7. Migration Success (Late-twenty-somethings) and Socio-economic Indicators (r-
values)................................................................................................................................... 47
Figure 8. Migration success (Early-downshifters) and Socio-economic Indicators (r-values).48
Figure 9. Migration success (Late-downshifters) and Socio-economic Indicators (r-values).. 48
Figure 10. Migration Success (Preretirement) and Socio-economic Indicators (r-values)...... 49
Figure 11. Migration Success (Recently-retired) and Socio-economic Indicators (r-values).. 49
9. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 1
Heart-strings and Economic Gravity: Migration in Canada’s Local Health Regions.
Chapter 1 - Introduction
Laughter is a pillar of the social construct on Canada’s east coast. Many self-
depreciating anecdotes begin with the line: “A New Brunswicker, a Nova Scotian and a
Newfoundlander were working on Bay Street in Toronto...” But there is a profound
dichotomy in these jokes. On one hand, the process of joke sharing and story telling is
representative of the tight-knit social fabric of Atlantic Canadian communities. On the other
hand, these jokes often reflect the exodus of Atlantic Canadians to “the big city.” In the
Atlantic region and beyond, there is a tug-of-war between economic reality and community
loyalty tearing apart Canada’s economically-depressed yet socially-vibrant communities.
How does this tug-of-war affect migration trends? Will individuals not gravitate to
the best economic opportunities over time? It is surprising to some that out-migration rates
are relatively high in the oil-rich Western Provinces and low in the fish-starved Atlantic
Provinces. Looker (2001) attributes this to what marketers might call brand loyalty – “the
low rates of out-migration in [the Atlantic] region reflect the strong ties [of residents]…to
their communities” (p. 28). Newfoundland and Labrador has some of the lowest rates of out-
migration (Looker, 2001 and House et al, 1990) and highest rates of return migration (House
et al, 1990) in the country. But it also has the highest unemployment rates and lowest
average earnings. In theory, these disadvantages should push “economically rational” people
away from depressed provinces. However, some sociologists are critical of labour market
10. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 2
theories of migration. House, White and Ripley (1990) studied two outport Newfoundland
communities and found evidence in support of the idea that social ties and lifestyle values
reduce out-migration and encourage return migration. Gmelch and Richling (1988) have also
attributed these trends to the social capital found in the island province’s small communities.
It has been suggested that such findings are applicable to small communities beyond
Newfoundland and Labrador (House et al, 1990).
While a wealth of non-economic factors give Newfoundland and Labrador some of
the lowest out-migration rates in the country, poor economic circumstances prevent in-
migrants from choosing the province. Paired with declining birth-rates and an aging
population, a lack of in-migration diminishes labour markets. Labour market shortages (and
skills shortages) in turn affect economic productivity. Bruce and Lister (2005, 6) explain that,
For many rural communities and regions in Atlantic Canada, falling population levels
have resulted in problems filling vacant job positions (especially in seasonal and
primary sector activities), and maintaining sufficient thresholds to support health and
education service provision.
These factors are tied together with many others in a circular decay that Myrdal calls
“cumulative causation”. Myrdal (1957) uses his cumulative causation theory to explain
regional economic inequality. He presents an example where a major employer burns down
and is not rebuilt in the community. The newly unemployed have less money to spend,
throwing more people out of work in local businesses. Kotler, Haider and Rein (1993)
include migration in their summary of Myrdal’s observation (see Figure 1). However they
limit their treatment of “city decay dynamics” to a steady flow of market factors.
11. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 3
Place Becomes Unattractive
1. Major company or industry is hurt or exits
2. Economic recession hurts business
3. Unemployment climbs
4. Infrastructure breaks down
5. City budget deficit increases
Tourism,
Outward Outward
Convention
Migration Migration
of People Business of Business
Fall Off
Banks Tighten Credit,
Bankruptcies increase,
Crime Increases,
Social Needs Rise,
City Image Deteriorates
Government Raises Taxes
Figure 1. Kotler, Haider and Rein (1993) summarize city decay dynamics.
Unfortunately there is a certain “economic reductionism” at play in many theories
that consider migration. Migration’s economic bias is the unfortunate by-product of labour
market models focused on supply, demand and price.
Migration is customarily conceptualized as a product of the material forces at work in
our society…the migrant is seen either as a “rational economic man” choosing
individual advancement by responding to the economic signals of the job and housing
markets, or as a virtual prisoner of his or her class position, and thereby subject to
powerful structural economic forces set in motion by the logic of capitalist
accumulations (Fielding, 1992, p 201).
12. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 4
Interdisciplinary dialogue (see Halfacree, 2004) is revealing that migration decisions are
indeed multi-dimensional. “Place” is not purely economic in the way it affects an individual’s
life. Geography plays a holistic socio-economic role in each individual’s biography. For
example, a young person’s migration decision could be motivated by a range of
considerations: expanded social networks (including greater choice in life partner), new
worldly experiences, and better economic opportunities. In some cases (e.g. the care of an ill
family member), social considerations drive the decision. In others (e.g. staggering
unemployment and isolation), economic needs trump social ones. It may be that migration
motivations are tiered, as in Maslow’s hierarchy of needs (Maslow, 1943). If so, individuals at
different needs levels can be expected to make different migration decisions. Regardless of
the decision criteria, a decision to migrate is not taken lightly. Therefore migration cannot
be reduced to a search for the best paycheque.
Much of Canada is now facing a labour shortage and a few provinces are developing
strategies to recruit, retain and repatriate talented workers. The most poignant example of
this work comes from New Brunswick’s Premier, Bernard Lord, who has traveled the
country, treating “economic refugees” to down-east hospitality, including smoked salmon
and Moosehead beer. “He admits his strategy here is as much to pluck heartstrings and praise
Maritime simplicity as it is to offer New Brunswickers specific economic incentives to move
home” (Brean, 2004, A2). Lord’s successful repatriation campaign lured 139 New
Brunswickers home in the first year. This strategy demonstrates that provinces and
communities can appeal to migrants’ broad set of human needs.
13. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 5
This research seeks to extend the current understanding of migration behaviour in
Canada. It asks three questions:
1.) How strongly do economic and social considerations weigh on the migration patterns
of youth, young families, immigrants, older migrants?
2.) How do a community’s social capital and economic circumstances determine its
success in the competition for migrating talent?
3.) How can economic developers appeal to multiple migration motivations?
Communities are becoming less focused on attracting industry and more interested in
attracting talent. But there is little academic literature to support the kinds of socio-cultural
appeals which are being used to encourage migration. Evidence of multiple migration
motivations could validate new tools for less advantaged regions.
14. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 6
Chapter 2 - Research Context
Migration Theory: Cause & Effect
Population decline is a key element in a domino process of economic decline for
struggling communities. There are two direct effects of population decline. First, a declining
population directly reduces demand in real estate markets: there is a depression in housing
sales and prices and rising vacancy rates in rental properties. Over a slightly longer time
frame, a declining population has considerable impact on labour supply. Businesses face
significant challenges when labour is unavailable to fill key positions. In turn, a struggling
business community and declining real estate market affect government revenues. An
eroding tax base threatens government capacity to provide necessary infrastructure and
social services. Education and health services can be lost in small communities where
population falls below demand thresholds. This is consistent with Myrdal’s (1957)
observation of cumulative causation, and with Kotler, Haider and Rein’s city decay dynamics
outlined in Chapter 1.
However, it has been argued that migration is more than an element in an economic
domino rally. There are decision criteria beyond employment and efficient public services
that weigh on a migration decision. Indeed, migration is also social and cultural. In volume
one of the important Migration Processes and Patterns series, Tony Fielding (1992, 201)
called for greater attention to the culture of migration:
15. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 7
There is something strange about the way we study migration. We know, often from
personal experience, but also from family talk, that moving from one place to another
is nearly always a major event. It is one of those events around which an individual’s
biography is built. The feelings associated with migration are usually complicated, the
decision to migrate is typically difficult to make, and the outcome usually involves
mixed emotions…Migration tends to expose one’s personality, it expresses one’s
loyalties and reveals one’s values and attachments (often previously hidden). It is a
statement of an individual’s world view, and is, therefore, an extremely cultural
event.
Halfacree (2004, 241) has also called for researchers to recognize “the multiple currents that
feed into the decision-making process”, to listen for migrants’ “multiple reasons, even if
entangled and often partial”, and to situate “migration inextricably within culture.” He
argues that the non-economic elements of migration are often overshadowed by “a narrow
economism.” Researchers cannot neglect “how culture is shaped by migration as well as how
migration is rooted in culture” (Halfacree, 2004, 241).
Sociologists and demographers have considered multiple migration motivations,
particularly in the study of specific migrant groups. At a macro-level, Moon’s theory of
“moorings” (1995, 515) attempts to summarize the many ways individuals define their well-
being and in turn become bound to a particular place (see Table 1).
Table 1. Typical Moorings of Everyday Life
Life-course
Household/family structure, Career opportunities, Household income, Educational
opportunities, Caring responsibilities
Cultural
Household wealth, Employment structure, Social networks, Cultural affiliation,
Ethnicity, Class structure, Socio-economic ideologies
Spatial
Climate, Access to social contacts, Access to cultural icons, Access to recreational places
Source: Moon, 1995, 515.
16. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 8
A unique combination of moorings becomes salient for each individual at a particular point
in their biography. For example, in some rural communities young people associate staying
in the community with failure (Bruce and Lister, 2005, 18). These youth develop “low
perceptions or expectations of their communities as places where they can lead a fulfilling
life” (Ibid., 17). There may be a difference between real opportunities for employment,
education and life experiences and the perception created by powerful socially and culturally
engendered attitudes. In this case socio-economic ideology can be as important a factor for
migration as a real dearth of opportunity. Another example can be found in research on
return migration. Here some moorings are stronger than others. In the case of return
migrants, the primary motivation “tends to be personal and family related rather than work
or economic related” (Ibid., 32).
Migration motivations can also be nested. Studies of immigration to Canada have
shown the importance of a critical mass of immigrants in attracting new immigrants. Bruce
and Lister (Ibid., 25) cite several studies that show “most, but not all immigrants choose their
destinations first based on the presence of kinship and ethnic networks, and then on
potential employment opportunities.”
Finally, migration motivations can be based on tiered needs, as in Maslow’s hierarchy
of needs (Maslow, 1943). Maslow argues that individuals seek to meet ‘basic needs’ and then
fulfill successively higher orders of needs. Figure 2 is a standard representation of this
hierarchy. Maslow’s hierarchy is used in many disciplines to explain human behaviour.
However, the specifics of his theory have been heavily critiqued. Wahba and Bridwell
17. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 9
(1976), for example, reviewed literature testing Maslow’s hierarchy. They were unable to
find evidence to support Maslow’s classification or ranking of needs. They add that, “theories
of self-actualization, particularly that of Maslow, suffer from vagueness in concept, looseness
in language, and lack of adequate empirical evidence” (Wahba and Bridwell, 1976, 233).
They corroborate the idea of a needs hierarchy, or a tiering of needs, but not in the specific
way Maslow has proposed.
5 Actualization
4 Esteem
3 Love/Belonging
2 Safety/Security
1 Physiological
Figure 2. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs.
The research outlined in this section can be applied to better understand the
motivations behind migration decision making. Unfortunately, these insights are not
influencing Canada’s economic development policies.
Migration in Canada
The greatest challenge to endogenous development in any community is the out-
migration of talent. Innovation and entrepreneurship are human activities that require
18. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 10
creative people. Governments and communities in Canada became acutely aware of this new
economy challenge when academics began sounding the “brain drain” alarm. But as Diane
Looker points out, “much of the [brain drain] research focuses on the issue (the “problem”) of
youth out-migration from rural areas…there is little information on in-migrants” (2001, 29).
As has been noted for Newfoundland, the real problem of migration is not that some
communities have significantly higher rates of out-migration but that they have significantly
lower rates of in-migration and return migration (Dupuy, Mayer and Morissette, 2000).
Researchers fall into a trap when they do not dissect the elements of net migration.
There is a volume of existing research that examines the geographic and economic
patterns of interprovincial migration in Canada (Finnie, 1998, 2000 and 2004; MPHEC, 2002;
Looker, 2001; Dupuy et al., 2000; R.A. Malatest & Associates Ltd., 2002). This research
consistently demonstrates that Canada’s most profound migration is from rural to urban areas
and from the Atlantic Provinces westward.
Ross Finnie of Queen’s University and Statistics Canada is currently the country’s
most prolific researcher on the topic of interprovincial migration. Finnie’s interest over the
past 6 years has been in identifying the demographic trends related to migration. He
consistently asks the question, “Who Moves?” (2000, 2004). Finnie’s past research (1998)
employed longitudinal data pulled from census records. But his more recent work (2000,
2004) has employed a panel logit method using data derived from Revenue Canada tax
records. The logit model is an extension of the basic discrete choice model. In the migration
context it views the decision to change province of residence as a Boolean choice (either
19. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 11
move or do not move). This probability can be tested for the influence of a number of
variables. Finnie (2004) has found that interprovincial mobility is: “
(i) inversely related to the home province’s population size, presumably reflecting local
economic conditions and labour market scale effects, while language also plays an
important role;
(ii) more common among residents of smaller cities, towns, and especially rural areas
than those in larger cities;
(iii) negatively related to age, marriage, and the presence of children for both men and
women;
(iv) positively related to the provincial unemployment rate, the individuals’ receipt of
unemployment insurance (except Entry Men), having no market income (except for
Entry Men and Entry Women), and the receipt of social assistance (especially for
men);
(v) (slightly) positively related to earnings levels (beyond the zero earnings point) for
prime aged men, but not for others; and
(vi) more or less stable over time, with men’s rates declining slightly and women’s
holding steadier or rising slightly, indicating a divergence in trends along gender
lines” (Finnie, 2004, 1759).
Beyond the broad issue of interprovincial mobility, there is considerable academic
interest in rural – urban migration variations over time. Looker (2001) explains that the
“rural turnaround” in the 1970s was attributed to higher rates of in-migration and lower out-
migration. This trend was reversed by falling in-migration in the 1980s and was then
corrected again by lower out-migration rates in the 1990s (Looker, 2001, 29). Rothwell et al
(2002a and b) break down these national trends in detail. They find that, in rural and small
town (RST) Canada, in-migration is greater than out-migration for all those aged 25 – 69
(Rothwell et al, 2002a, 1). For RST Canadians in their late teens and early twenties, out-
migration exceeds in-migration. But,
At the provincial level, rural and small town regions of British Columbia, Alberta and
Ontario have net in-migration. Quebec, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland
20. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 12
and Labrador have net out-migration. Migration has little overall effect on the rural
and small town populations of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and New
Brunswick (Ibid.).
Newfoundland and Labrador’s rural in-migration is the lowest in the country: one
quarter the in-migration rates of British Columbia. “Provinces with the highest rates of RST
out-migration also tended to have the highest rates of RST in-migration” (Rothwell et al,
2002b, 9). Therefore, RST migration efficiency (turnover) is highest in British Columbia,
Alberta and Ontario (the most affluent provinces). RST migration efficiency is lowest in
Atlantic Canada (the least affluent provinces).
There is new emerging evidence that migration motivations are changing the rural-
urban migration picture. In Nova Scotia for example, “two-thirds of rural census subdivisions
declined in populations between 1991 and 2001” (Millward, 2005, 180). Meanwhile, a small
number of metro-adjacent rural areas experienced considerable population growth through
counter-urbanization (Ibid.). Some of these metro-adjacent rural communities are growing
faster than the cities they abut. Bruce and Lister (2005, 4) claim this is true for all regions of
the country. They cite two reasons: urban families seek a better quality of life, and more
distant rural dwellers seek proximity to urban services and employment. Millward (2005,
191) argues,
isolation from urban opportunities should be regarded as an independent cause of net
out-migration, so that depopulation in remote districts can occur even in the presence
of a buoyant local economy.
However, urban opportunities can also bring negative experiences, especially for women,
including “loneliness, harder work requirements and greater patriarchal control” (Halfacree,
21. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 13
2004, 243). Three key migrant groups gravitate toward urban areas and away from rural ones.
Seventy-five percent of Canada’s immigrants choose Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal each
year. In 2001, immigrants made up 27 percent of urban regions but only six percent of rural
regions. The predominantly rural Atlantic Provinces receive only one-point-three percent of
Canada’s annual immigration (Bruce and Lister, 2005). Older seniors (70 years of age and
older) also choose urban communities. They seek better health care services and more
appropriate “aging-in-place” housing. Meanwhile, young adults are drawn to urban
education, employment and life experience.
Academic and government interest in migration tends to focus on youth and young
adults. Throughout the mid-nineties, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and
Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Manitoba and Saskatchewan all saw net losses of rural
youth. Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia experienced net gains. Except in
Newfoundland and Labrador, rural leavers were headed to urban areas within their province
of origin. In Newfoundland the main destination of rural leavers was an urban area outside
the province. Urban youth are similarly likely to move to an urban area outside their
province, except in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia where urban youth move to
other urban areas within their province (Dupuy, Mayer and Morisette, 2000, 17). The Coastal
Communities Network says the trend is driven by “youth who leave rural areas to get a post-
secondary education and then remain in urban areas where economic opportunities are seen
as better than any available ‘back home’” (2004, 1).
22. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 14
The Maritime Provinces Higher Education Commission (2002) has found that nearly
half (45%) of Prince Edward Island residents, one-in-seven New Brunswickers, and one-in-
fifteen Nova Scotians left their home provinces to go to university. Those graduates who had
attended university outside their home province were 16% more likely to move at least once
after graduation, and nearly one-in-seven left the region completely. Unfortunately
MPHEC’s study may be limited because it only considers those Maritime residents who
graduated from universities within the region.
Despite these findings, universities and colleges cannot shoulder the blame for the
loss of their graduates. Looker disputes the link by saying that it is not clear “whether those
with higher education are more likely to move, or if those who are likely to move obtain
higher levels of education” (2001, 30). She notes that out-migration rates climb with
incremental educational attainment, but so do in-migration rates. MPHEC (2002) confirms
that lower earnings, job dissatisfaction, unemployment and underemployment (all beyond
the control of post-secondary institutions) motivate graduates to migrate. But Dupuy, Mayer
and Morisette counter that even if young people could hold the job they desire in a rural
community 40 percent would be willing to move to an urban centre. They say that “this is
evidence that other factors, such as one’s desire to experiment with different life experiences
or to fulfill one’s aspirations, play a role in explaining migration out of rural community
[sic]” (2000, 2). This supports the idea that a particular personality-trait might be common
among the majority of leavers and the majority of higher learners.
23. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 15
The economic motivation is much clearer, and it is grounded in a startling reality.
Rural unemployment in 2000 was highest in Newfoundland (40%) and lowest in Alberta
(11%) (Dupuy, Mayer and Morisette, 2000, 5). Seventy percent of urban, non-student, 15 –
29 year old Atlantic Canadians are employed. Only fifty-six percent of rural, non-student, 15
– 29 year old Atlantic Canadians can say the same. The urban wage premium for women in
their early twenties is $558. Young men (20 – 24) earn $1447 more in rural areas, but then
earn approximately $1900 less than their urban peers after reaching their thirties (Ibid.).
According to the Maritime Provinces Higher Education Commission, post-secondary
graduates who stayed in the Maritimes saw a 26% wage increase after graduation. Those who
left saw a 78% wage increase (MPHEC, 2002, 6).
These facts cause grief for young people in Atlantic Canada who are making career
decisions. They create a tug-of-war between economic reality and community loyalty. This
conflict is well documented (see references in Looker, 2001, 28). Many of the young people
who decide to move say things like “this place will always be home to me,” and “even if I
leave I am coming back” (Ibid., 31). But in the 1990s only one-quarter of those young people
who had moved away had also returned to their communities ten years later (Dupuy, Mayer
and Morissette, 2000).
Return Migration in Newfoundland
The introductory section of this paper made reference to a book on return migration
to Newfoundland by House, White and Ripley (1990). These researchers studied two small
24. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 16
coastal communities on the Great Northern Peninsula of Newfoundland: Anchor Point and
Bird Cove. Their findings do not completely fit with the theory of an economically rational
migrant. It is argued that, to Newfoundlanders, economic self-interest includes non-cash
wealth and benefits from the informal economy. Also, rational migration decisions extend
beyond immediate economic considerations to include past experience and present
personality. The authors explain, “In real life, people respond to situations in terms of their
personal biographies, which vary according to where they were born and raised, their family
relationships and a host of other influences” (House, White and Ripley, 1990, 3).
It has already been noted that out-migration from Newfoundland and Labrador is not
the source of the province’s net out-migration.
What distinguishes Newfoundland is not that Newfoundlanders choose to leave their
home province at a greater rate than people in other provinces, but rather that other
Canadians choose to move to Newfoundland at a lower rate than they do any other
province (House, White and Ripley, 1990, 12).
Despite this depressingly low level of in-migration, Newfoundland and Labrador has a
remarkably high level of return migration – the highest rates in the country. Over half of the
migrants into Newfoundland and Labrador are former residents. This trend has been
consistent for at least the past 20 years (Ibid.).
Gmelch and Richling (1988) tell the story of return migration to outport
Newfoundland not in terms of the return migrants’ failure in the urban economy, but rather
their desire to rediscover intimate social relations, community spirit and a rural household
economy (including the self-sufficient nature of hunting, fishing, and barter).
25. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 17
As veterans of urban-industrial Canada, having tasted the ‘modern life’, their
voluntary return to the province’s rural villages offers an unambiguous message that
outport society and culture are still vibrant and appealing (Gmelch and Richling,
1988, 14).
This seems to ring true for many of the over 13,000 former Newfoundlanders currently
living in Fort McMurray, Alberta. They represent one-third of the city’s population. The
mayor jokes that his city is, “Newfoundland’s third largest” (Burns, 2003, 49). This is
reminiscent of immigrants’ ethnic enclaves. A relative reports back to home that there is
plenty of work available for all the nieces, nephews and cousins. Employment is the
motivator, and yet many Newfoundlanders are looking only for a temporary move,
a few years of good wages to help get them on their feet to set up a business or
establish themselves more securely back home (Ibid.).1
House, White and Ripley agree that return migration to Newfoundland is not a result of
labour market failure, rather the result of a new awareness of Newfoundland’s advantages.
After some time away, the grass is no longer greener on the other side. Clearly, social
considerations are integral to the migration decisions of rural Newfoundlanders. Social
capital is one of the key incentives to return migration. House, White and Ripley suggest that
this observation likely applies in varying degrees to other Atlantic Canadian communities
and beyond.
1 Unfortunately a high cost of living often prevents any significant cash savings.
26. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 18
Social Capital Theory and Migration
Social capital is not a panacea for troubled communities. It can lead to isolationism
and destructive norms. But the message of social capital theory is, as Woolcock (2001)
explains, “that how we associate with each other, and on what terms, has enormous
implications for our well-being” (p. 15). Social capital can help people deal with uncertainties
like job loss, and it can provide opportunities for collaborative outcomes (Woolcock, 2001,
14). Strong social capital has been shown to predict low murder rates, low death rates
(controlling for blood chemistry, age, gender, jogging, and other risk factors), happiness, and
socio-economic equality (Putnam, 2001, 51). “The well-connected are more likely to be
housed, healthy, hired and happy” (Woolcock, 2001, 12). As evidence of these outcomes has
been mounting, the significance of social capital has become clearer.
However, critics of social capital emphasize the isolationist viewpoint. Florida (2002)
finds that his creative class is not only disinterested in community connectedness but is
avoiding tight-knit communities in favour of quasi-anonymity. He says,
The people in my focus groups and interviews rarely wished for the kinds of
community connectedness Putnam talks about. If anything, they were trying to get
away from those kinds of environments….they did not want friends and neighbors
[sic] peering over the fence into their lives (Florida, 2002, 268).
This critique strikes at the heart of socially vibrant communities. The creative class theory is
suggesting that tight social networks might be preventing in-migration. It is possible that
social capital is a double-edged sword: it might discourage out-migration and encourage
return migration, but simultaneously discourage in-migration.
27. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 19
Other preliminary research validates the idea that social capital is a valuable
community feature. Cordes and his colleagues (2003) surveyed residents in a small Nebraska
community using a contingent valuation framework. This approach involved asking
respondents questions that revealed the salary increase they would accept in return for
moving from the community. It is not surprising that 61% of respondents said they would
move from the community and leave behind local relatives and friends for financial gain.
Surprisingly though, when respondents were asked to state the required salary incentive, the
average value was incredibly high: $30,000. The yes/no decision to accept-compensation was
found to correlate with other questionnaire responses on the size of the respondent’s close
personal network, emotional support, and general attitude about the town’s social
environment. Unfortunately the results are somewhat questionable because willingness-to-
accept questions are frowned upon in contingent valuation research. Willingness-to-pay
questions are more commonly accepted but Cordes et al were unable to devise a realistic
migration situation that included a willingness-to-pay element. Despite this drawback, the
researchers are confident that they have produced the first evidence that social capital results
in tangible and measurable attachment value. They have reinforced the idea that social
capital reduces gross out-migration and could induce return migration if the necessary trade-
offs are not realized.
28. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 20
Local Response Strategies
New Brunswick Premier Frank McKenna was the first Canadian political leader to
buy into the concept that technology infrastructure could attract clusters of investment. But
he went beyond the generic dot-com recruitment campaign that consumed many
communities, states and provinces. He looked at local strengths and aggressively promoted
his province as a skilled bilingual haven for the emerging call centre industry (Savoie, 2001).
McKenna’s economic success in New Brunswick was partly a result of call-centre job
creation but mostly the indirect result of the brand loyalty he created for the province
(Ibid.). The new conservative Premier, Bernard Lord, has reinvented McKenna’s brand-
strategy by using it to recruit ex-patriot New Brunswickers back to the province. Lord has
traveled the country, treating “economic refugees” to down-east hospitality, including
smoked salmon and Moosehead beer. “He admits his strategy here is as much to pluck
heartstrings and praise Maritime simplicity as it is to offer New Brunswickers specific
economic incentives to move home” (Brean, 2004, A2). Yet not every ex-patriot New
Brunswicker finds this appeal attractive. One woman left an event saying, “Don’t feed me the
lifestyle,…that’s not going to pay my rent” (Ibid.). Despite this criticism, Lord’s successful
repatriation campaign lured 139 New Brunswickers home in the first year.
Other provinces in Eastern Canada are also beginning to recruit people, particularly
those in their twenties. Newfoundland and Labrador turns student loans into grants for those
university and college graduates who stay in the province to work. Students are therefore not
29. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 21
forced to leave Newfoundland after graduation in order to repay their debt (Government of
NL, 2004). The province of Quebec is farther into the game with its “Place aux Jeunes”
program. To demonstrate that opportunities do exist in rural Quebec, university students are
given all-expenses-paid trips home for three winter weekends. One day out of each weekend
is spent meeting employers, economic developers, and successful local young people (Place
aux Jeunes, 2004).
While a number of intervention programs exist at the provincial level, the Coastal
Communities Network suggests that work must also be done at the local level. CCN
Executive Director Ishbel Munroe suggests some solutions for the Nova Scotia government,
namely forgiving a portion of the provincial student loan and realigning the education
system to highlight local opportunities. But she is quick to focus on what she has heard from
young people: “Currently, young people are told all the things they can’t do…Tno
skateboarding, no standing around on the main street, no sitting in the park after dark,” she
says, “…when they’re told to move along enough times, they do” (Coastal Communities
Network, 2004, 2). Munroe’s comments point to an attitude problem at the local level and
suggest communities will win the migration game if they can engage their youth. She cites
an earlier CCN study that found young volunteers are more likely than non-volunteers to
return to their communities after their post-secondary education. Unfortunately the study
also found that most young people never volunteer because they are never asked. The local
challenge is for communities to demonstrate, in as many ways as possible, that they value
their young people.
30. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 22
The Colchester Regional Development Agency in Truro, Nova Scotia, does this by
sending “Colchester Cares Kits” to local students who are away at university. Each kit
contains items donated by members of the local chamber of commerce. The intent is to
maintain community loyalty when young people leave to pursue an education (Von Kintzel,
2004).
The New Rural Economy (NRE) Project (a collaboration among government,
community, business, and 15 academic researchers) has been studying capacity building in 32
communities across Canada since 1998. Two of the NRE researchers published, “Strategic
observations for rural community decisions (ideas for communities that have decided that
they want to grow)” (Reimer and Bollman, 2004). Part of this document addresses the topic,
“youth are leaving…but young families return” (p. 4-5). The authors suggest that attractive
communities can bring young families back with a high probability that they will become
self-employed. They propose five strategies for addressing return migration that nurture and
capitalize on social ties: “
a) Five-year (or seven-year) high school reunions where you have researched the
interests and capacities of each former student and you make them an offer they
cannot refuse.
b) Community bulletins sent regularly to past residents to keep them informed about
local activities.
c) Use your diaspora for market intelligence and opportunities.
d) Small community venture capital funds for returning youth.
e) Mentors for new entrepreneurs” (Reimer and Bollman, 2004, 4 – 5).
31. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 23
Chapter 3 - Research Procedure
Data Sources
No comprehensive source of data on sub-provincial migration was available at the
time of this research. To build an appropriate data set, this study draws on three sources, all
provided by the Government of Canada. The files are made available to students at the
University of Waterloo through Tri-University Data Resources.
The first two data sets are CANSIM manipulations of 2001 Census records. Table 109-
5215 (Statistics Canada, 2005a) provided population counts for each health region by 5-year
age groupings. The table included data for 1996 and 2001. These figures were fed into a
cohort survival analysis to derive the dependent variables (see Procedure, step 1).
Meanwhile, Table 109-0200 (Statistics Canada, 2005b) provided economic indicators for each
health region. Many of these statistics were used as independent variables in the study.
The third data set is from a less familiar and relatively new source. Statistics Canada,
the Canadian Institute for Health Information and Health Canada engaged in a consultation
in 1998 to identify current and future needs for health information. As a result, Statistics
Canada fielded the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) in 2000. This survey
provides data on the status and determinants of population health in Canada’s many sub-
provincial health regions. Since social capital has become recognized as a key determinant of
health, the CCHS includes data on this otherwise elusive phenomenon. For a select few
health regions four indicators of social support were calculated, including a measure of
32. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 24
tangible support and a measure of positive social interaction (Statistics Canada, 2003).
Unfortunately these indicators of social support cannot be used in this study because they are
available for so few regions. However, for all health regions, the CCHS questionnaire
included questions regarding Canadians’ sense of belonging, volunteer activity, and
participation in social activities. This is the first accessible data set with which researchers
can compare such social capital indicators in local communities. Additional independent
variables are drawn from this data set.
Population
The unit of analysis for this study is the community (health region) rather than the
individual migrant. While migration decisions appear to occur primarily at the individual
level, there is a need for research that can inform community economic development
interventions at a regional level. Communities need to better understand how their socio-
economic attributes influence the migration patterns of key demographic groups.
There are 118 health regions in Canada. The boundaries for these regions are defined
by the provincial ministries of health. These are legislated administrative areas in all
provinces except Nova Scotia. The Nova Scotia Department of Health uses statistical zones
that are aggregations of the province’s nine district health authorities. To meet data quality
guidelines in the Canadian Community Health Survey, Statistics Canada has aggregated 31 of
the provincial health regions in 16 larger regions. The same aggregation was applied to the
CANSIM data sets (see Appendix, Table 2). This aggregation created one geographically large
33. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 25
health region that encompasses the Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut. This
northern health region was excluded from the analysis. The remaining 102 health regions are
listed in the Appendix.
Procedure
The data analysis made use of SPSS and Microsoft Excel. It involved five incremental
analysis steps.
Migration Variables (Step 1).
Migration data can be derived from general population statistics using a “residual
method” (see Goetz, 2005). Since births, deaths and migration are the three components of
population change, net migration can be calculated with the accounting identity in Equation
1 (Goetz, 2005).
Equation 1
M j , = Pop j ,t B j, + D j,
Here, the change in population due to migration is MU. PopU is the population at the
beginning of the time period while Popt-U is the population at the end of the period. BU is the
number of births over the period and DU is the number of deaths. The subscript “j” denotes a
particular demographic group, such as 20-24 year olds. This formula yields an absolute value
for the net number of migrants.
Absolute migration values are not useful for a comparison among communities of
different sizes. In response, an estimate of the effect of regional net-migration was developed.
34. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 26
A basic “cohort survival estimation”2 (see Newkirk, 2002) was combined with the “migration
by residual” method outlined above. Equation 2 was developed for the purposes of this study.
It was applied to each health region for each age-cohort of interest.
Equation 2
Pop ,r , j Pop ,r , j
M r, j = =
Est ,r , j Popt ,r , j 1 D ,j
This estimate of the effect of net-migration (M) indicates the relative impact of
migration for a given age group (j) in a given health region (r). The actual population in 2001
(PopU,r,j) is divided by a population estimate (EstU,r,j) based on cohort survival (neglecting
migration). The result captures the magnitude of the difference between the actual
population in 2001 (survivors and migrants) and the predicted population for 2001 (only
survivors). A score of 1.00 indicates that migration had no effect on the region’s population.
A score greater than 1.00 indicates a net positive population growth as a result of migration,
and a score less than 1.00 indicates a net negative result.
Unfortunately mortality/survival rates were not available for individual health
regions. In response, it was assumed that survival rates are relatively uniform throughout
each province. This assumption introduces the possibility of error since some of the variation
in migration levels may represent variations in mortality rates.
2 Each
age group is progressed through time and a survival rate is applied. For example, the
total number of 5-9 year olds in 1996 becomes the estimated number of 10-14 year olds in
2001, less any deaths.
35. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 27
These estimates (M) were calculated for the cohorts identified in Table 2.
Table 2. Cohorts of Interest
Summary of M values (all health regions)
Cohort Age
Min Q13 Mean Q34 Max
Children (Families) 5–9 0.948 1.006 1.051 1.085 1.329
Teens 15 - 19 0.896 0.983 1.010 1.058 1.240
Early-Twenties 20 - 24 0.621 0.807 0.894 1.065 1.458
Late-Twenties 25 - 29 0.677 0.860 0.928 1.033 1.351
Early-downshifters 50 - 54 0.880 0.984 1.005 1.027 1.083
Late-downshifters 55 - 59 0.867 0.987 1.002 1.036 1.149
Pre-retirement 60 - 64 0.821 0.984 1.003 1.035 1.150
Recently-Retired 65 - 69 0.884 0.977 1.002 1.018 1.131
Immigrants are also a group of interest to this study. A measure of immigration was
developed independently of the other migration variables. This measure considers
immigrants as a proportion of a health region’s population (based on the number of
individuals with permanent resident status identified in the CCHS).5
Social Indicators (Step 2).
The CCHS was used to estimate the social capital in each health region. Since social
support indicators were not available for all health regions, some of the indicators pioneered
by Putnam (2000) have been used. The social capital variables include participation in
3 The first quartile.
4 The third quartile.
5 Min = 0.080; Q1 = 2.607; Mean = 7.894; Q3 = 14.356; Max = 57.970.
36. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 28
voluntary organizations, participation in social activities, and sense of belonging to the
community. They are outlined in Table 3.
Table 3. Social Capital Indicator Variables
Summary of Values (all health regions)
Variable Description
Min Q1 Mean Q3 Max
Proportion of
respondents who
indicated a
Sense of Belonging somewhat strong or 44.24 63.32 67.27 71.90 82.60
very strong sense of
belonging to their
community.
Proportion of
respondents aged
15-19 who indicated
Teen Sense of
a somewhat strong 44.99 59.36 66.85 71.77 86.02
Belonging
or very strong sense
of belonging to their
community.
Proportion of
respondents aged
Twenty- 20-29 who indicated
something Sense a somewhat strong 40.18 51.31 57.90 63.53 85.00
of Belonging or very strong sense
of belonging to their
community.
Proportion of
respondents who
Volunteer
were members of a 19.36 34.67 38.12 41.00 48.68
Membership
voluntary
organization.
37. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 29
Summary of Values (all health regions)
Variable Description
Min Q1 Mean Q3 Max
Proportion of
respondents aged
Teen Volunteer 15-19 who were
10.98 29.98 36.57 43.59 60.78
Membership members of a
voluntary
organization.
Proportion of
Twenty- respondents aged
something 20-29 who were
9.28 20.59 27.07 32.17 42.66
Volunteer members of a
Membership voluntary
organization.
Proportion of
respondents who
Volunteer
volunteered at least 6.19 16.06 18.56 20.88 26.26
Participation
once in the past
week.
Proportion of
respondents who
Social Dance participated in a 10.94 18.35 20.65 23.43 28.15
social dance in the
past 3 months.
Proportion of
respondents who
Ice Hockey participated in ice 2.64 5.64 6.78 7.93 12.26
hockey in the past 3
months.
Proportion of
respondents who
Golfing participated in 1.87 9.31 13.44 14.98 20.15
golfing in the past 3
months.
Proportion of
respondents who
Bowling participated in 3.48 9.26 10.83 12.35 16.63
bowling in the past
3 months.
38. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 30
Summary of Values (all health regions)
Variable Description
Min Q1 Mean Q3 Max
Proportion of
respondents who
Baseball/Softball participated in 3.00 5.22 7.30 9.08 12.51
baseball/softball in
the past 3 months.
Proportion of
respondents who
Tennis participated in 1.12 2.41 3.32 4.78 9.49
tennis in the past 3
months.
Proportion of
respondents who
Volleyball participated in 2.10 5.89 7.25 8.44 11.39
volleyball in the
past 3 months.
Proportion of
respondents who
Basketball participated in 4.83 7.79 9.58 10.84 14.35
basketball in the
past 3 months.
Proportion of
respondents who
Soccer participated in 3.72 6.22 7.63 9.38 12.97
soccer in the past 3
months.
Economic and Market-size Indicators (Step 3).
The first economic indicator, income adequacy, was drawn from the CCHS. “Income
Adequacy” is the proportion of respondents in a health region who were identified as having
39. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 31
a low household income6. Another measure of low income was available in CANSIM Table
109-0200 (Statistics Canada, 2005b). “Economic Families – Incidence of Low Income (2000
income) (percent)” is the proportion of economic families with incomes below the Statistics
Canada low-income cut-off7. The remaining economic indicators were drawn from this same
CANSIM table and are listed in Table 4.
Table 4. Economic and Market-size Variables
Summary of Values (all health regions)
Variable Description
Min Q1 Mean Q3 Max
Proportion of labour
Long-term force aged 15 and
Un- over who did not
1.50 2.62 3.40 5.20 17.99
employment have a job any time
Rate during the current
or previous year.
Average personal
income (pre-tax,
Average
post-transfer) for
Personal 19,804 24,978 27,518 29,410 43,691
persons aged 15 and
Income
over who reported
income ($).
6
The CCHS classifies low-income as less than $15,000 for household of 1 or 2 people, less than $20,000 for
households of 3 or 4 people, and les than 30,000 for households of 5 or more people. (Min = 3.459; Q1 = 6.128;
Mean = 7.683; Q3 = 9.632; Max = 19.173).
7 Min = 5.400; Q1 = 9.425; Mean = 11.200; Q3 = 12.800; Max = 22.700.
40. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 32
Summary of Values (all health regions)
Variable Description
Min Q1 Mean Q3 Max
Proportion of all
income that came
from government
transfers (e.g.,
Guaranteed Income
Government Supplement/Old Age
Transfer Security, 5.90 11.82 14.01 16.10 27.10
Income Canada/Quebec
Pension Plan,
Employment
Insurance) for the
population 15 years
of age and over.
Proportion of the
population living
within a Census
Metropolitan Area, a
Census
Population in
Agglomeration or a 0.00 43.82 81.70 95.10 100.00
a CMA
strong Census
Metropolitan Area
and Census
Agglomeration
Influenced Zone.
Proportion of health
region population
living in a
continuously built-
Urban up area having a
21.80 49.62 64.90 81.50 100.00
Population population
concentration of
1,000 or more and a
population density
of 400/km2 or more.
Inverse of “Urban
Rural
Population” (not 0.00 18.42 35.10 49.40 78.20
Population
used in analysis).
41. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 33
Summary of Values (all health regions)
Variable Description
Min Q1 Mean Q3 Max
Population per
Population square kilometer
0.26 3.38 15.95 48.68 4,238.75
Density (based on 1996
census).
Cross-correlation of independent variables (Step 5)
This study assumes that social capital is a phenomenon that acts on migration rates
relatively independently of economic indicators. That is, social capital is not simply a by-
product of economic market factors. To support this assumption the two sets of independent
variables were correlated against each other. Where logical, some correlation tests were also
conducted within the variable sets. For example, it was particularly prudent to determine the
degree to which “sense of belonging” is influenced by other social indicators.
Correlation tests (Step 6)
The final step in the data analysis was an array of correlation tests. The Pearson’s
product moment correlation coefficient (r) was used. Interpretation of r was based on the
thresholds outlined in Table 5. The basic analysis involved all Canadian health regions. A
total of 176 tests were conducted using 22 independent variables (16 social indicators and 6
economic indicators) and 8 dependent variables (cohort-specific estimates of the effect of
regional net-migration). All 176 tests were then recalculated twice to further understand
geographic variations. These secondary analyses focused on a set of Atlantic Canadian health
42. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 34
regions, and a set of rural health regions (those with more than 50% of their population
living in rural areas).
Table 5. Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation Coefficient Interpretation.
Association Absolute r-value
Perfect (P) 1.000
Strong (S) 0.750 – 0.999
Moderately Strong (M) 0.500 – 0.749
Weak (W) 0.001 – 0.499
None (N) 0.000
Limitations
At this point it is important to identify some key limitations and assumptions
underlying this study. These relate to the treatment of migration statistics, the geographic
level of analysis, and the selection of social capital indicators.
First, there are three important considerations with respect to the treatment of
migration and population change in this study. A key challenge with all census population
data is that the census methodology does not separate migrant births/deaths from those in
the pre-existing population. As a result, the infant children of migrants are not counted as
migrants, regardless of whether or not they were born after the migration event. Since
fertility rates were not available for health regions anyway, newborns were excluded from
this study. Deaths and cohort survival rates present a different challenge. Provincial survival
rates were applied to the health regions because data at the health region level was
unavailable. Unfortunately this introduces some bias into the residual method: variations in
survival rates can manifest as variations in migration rates. To minimize this error, the older
43. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 35
age cohorts (70+) were excluded. For those ages, survival rates are lowest and the inferred
bias would be high. Another limitation is the lack of data for dissecting in- vs. out-migration.
As demonstrated in Chapter 2, separating the components of migration introduces an
important level of understanding (as in NL’s low out-migration and lower in-migration).
Although this study is only able to estimate net-migration, it reaches for this deeper level of
understanding through an examination of age cohorts. Because in and out flows tend to be
tied to age groups (youth, families, seniors) there is a degree of richness in the results that
would not be found in a community-wide net-migration statistic. The research design
carefully assuages all three of these migration limitations.
The second set of limitations and assumptions relates to the geographic level of
analysis. For starters, health regions are a coarse basis for spatial analysis. A smaller level,
such as census divisions or sub-divisions, might yield greater variation in the data set.
However, a smaller geographic unit might also introduce a greater degree of spatial
dependency between neighbouring regions. Unfortunately this discussion is moot because
appropriate social capital data are not publicly available for any geographic aggregation
smaller than health regions. As Statistics Canada introduces new sources for social capital
data, studies at the CD level or lower may become possible. Meanwhile, regardless of the
geographic aggregation, researchers must contemplate whether or not “community” is an
appropriate unit of analysis. The question for theorists is whether social capital rests at the
individual or community level. Putnam operates on the premise that social capital is a
phenomenon shared between many individuals. He goes so far as to compare levels of social
44. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 36
capital between American states. This study assumes that social capital operates at a more
local level. Putnam’s high level of aggregation is rejected, but his basic premise (that social
capital is a community phenomenon) remains intact.
Putnam’s approach to social capital indicators has also been adopted here. This is the
third set of limitations and assumptions. In his book, Bowling Alone (2000), Putnam uses
membership in voluntary associations and participation in social activities as indicators of
social capital. This is because more sophisticated measures were not available at the time of
his pioneering work. A similar limitation applies in Canada today. Although social capital is
better understood, public data sources are not up-to-speed. For a select few geographies, the
CCHS asked questions leading to an index of “tangible social support” and “positive social
interaction”. These included questions about bonding ties between individuals. Bridging and
linking social capital are as yet unexplored in this dataset. Current theory encourages more
specific measures than those used in this study, but they may not be available until specific
surveys on social capital are fielded. In the meantime, Putnam-style indicators allow
significant insight and discussion.
Ethics Considerations
Further to its stringent ethics policies, Statistics Canada has removed all personal
information from the data files. Results that could identify any individual have been
suppressed. Because the research did not involve contact with human subjects there was no
need for a review by the Office of Research Ethics.
45. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 37
Chapter 4 - Results
Cross Correlations
The results indicate that the social and economic indicators employed here are two
relatively independent sets of variables. There are, however, two notable exceptions.
First, there is evidence that “sense of belonging” is more prevalent outside cities.
There is a moderately strong negative relationship between sense of belonging and urban
population (r = -0.566) and between sense of belonging and population within a CMA (r = -
0.543). Digging deeper, the least wealthy of these rural regions have a more prevalent sense
of belonging. For the set of rural health regions, “sense of belonging” is moderately strongly
(and positively) related to both long-term unemployment rates (r = 0.618) and government
transfer income (r = 0.541). For the set of Atlantic health regions this relationship is even
stronger: the correlation coefficient for sense of belonging and long-term unemployment is
0.880, and for sense of belonging and government transfer income it is 0.777. There is a
fascinating migration story in these statistics. It appears that people are bonded together by
economic hardship; supporting one another through tough times and relying on family,
friends and sometimes government income support. This connectedness makes it a little
easier to be unemployed or underemployed, allowing people to stay in the community to
which they are socially bonded. They can try to wait for better economic circumstances
rather than moving in search of them.
46. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 38
Three social activities provide a second exception to the independence of the social
and economic indicator sets. Participation in these three activities is related (moderately
strongly) to the economic circumstances and urbanization of a given community. Tennis,
basketball and soccer are all more prevalent in richer urban regions (see Table 6).
Surprisingly this was not the case for hockey which generally has a higher cost-of-entry (in
the form of higher equipment costs). Rather than cost-of-entry, this evidence may point to a
class-divide for these three sports, or perhaps an issue of access to facilities.
Table 6. Participation in tennis, basketball and soccer is higher in wealthy urban regions (r-
values).
Income Urbanization
Avg. Personal Gov’t Transfer % in a CMA % Urban
Tennis 0.668 0.592 0.602 0.722
Basketball 0.549 0.516 0.489 * 0.405 *
Soccer 0.674 0.626 0.518 0.459 *
* below the |.500| threshold.
Some cross-correlation within the social indicators revealed one further interesting
finding. The correlation between “sense of belonging” and “volunteer membership” is
positive and moderately strong (r = 0.716). It is likely that the causal relationship runs in
both directions. Across the country, people in strong “sense of belonging” regions are more
likely to support one another through membership in voluntary organizations. In turn,
communities where residents are actively engaged in voluntary organizations have a more
prevalent sense of belonging.
47. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 39
Low Correlation Results
Although “volunteer membership” is linked to “sense of belonging”, it is one of the
seven variables that are weakly correlated with migration success for the demographic
cohorts. Table 7 lists the indicators for which r-values fell below the |0.500| threshold.
Table 7. Variables with low correlation to migration success.
Variable Range of r-values
Volunteer Membership -0.245 to 0.067
Teen Volunteer Membership 0.018 to 0.276
Twenty-something Volunteer Membership -0.138 to 0.054
Volunteer Participation -0.128 to 0.325
Social Dance -0.101 to 0.057
Ice Hockey -0.275 to 0.294
Volleyball -0.237 to 0.227
These low correlation results should not be over-interpreted. Indeed, some
researchers in some studies would place their threshold for acceptable r-values much lower
than |0.500|. The results only indicate that these forms of social engagement have little effect
on migration at a community level. In unique cases, an individual may find any of these
connections to be a strong anchor/pull that influences her/his migration decision. It is also
likely that these variables simply have a less direct effect on migration than those variables
that yielded stronger results. For example, it has been noted that “volunteer membership”
has a moderately strong relationship to “sense of belonging”. “Sense of belonging” is, in turn,
strongly related to migration for some demographic cohorts. More intensive multi-variate
study of the social indicators is needed.
48. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 40
Immigrants
There is little evidence that general social factors play a strong role in the location
decisions of immigrants. There are strong positive correlation results for “immigrant
concentration” and “tennis” (r = 0.728), “basketball” (r = 0.509), and “soccer” (r = 0.568).
However, these are the social activities that are strongly linked to economic and market-size
factors. Indeed, these three results are indicative of the strong results for economic
indicators. Although unemployment rates had little effect on the concentration of
immigrants (r = -0.359), average personal incomes (r = 0.655) and government transfer
incomes (r = -0.620) did. Immigrant concentration is highest in urban areas, as evidenced by
strong results for all three indicators of urbanization. This is consistent with the literature,
which indicates Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver are the top three immigrant destinations
in Canada. Social factors may be unimportant to immigrants because many have already
detached from social ties in their countries of origin. It is also true that ethnic enclaves tend
to occur in the most densely populated urban centres, where geographic concentrations of a
particular socio-cultural minority can be found. The correlation results for the immigration
cohort are reported in Figure 3.
Although the economic motivations of immigrants come through in these results,
three social factors arise in the population sub-sets. For the set of rural health regions,
immigration success is strongly and positively related to participation in golf (r = 0.615) and
baseball (r = 0.558). These social indicators weigh on the relative success of rural regions for
49. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 41
other demographic cohorts as well. Because average personal income (r = 0.778) and
government transfer income (r = -0.800) have a strong effect on immigration for the set of
rural regions, it may simply be that golf and baseball are common to the wealthier rural
regions. A further anomaly is the strength of bowling participation in determining
immigrant concentration for the set of Atlantic health regions (r = 0.513). This may also be a
confounding variable since no other social variables had a strong effect in Atlantic Canada
while the economic and market-size indicators had a strong effect. Robert Putnam might be
disappointed to hear that, as a social capital indicator, bowling participation did not have a
strong effect on migration for any demographic cohort other than immigrants.
Immigrant Concentration and
Socio-economic Indicators (r-values)
1.000
0.800
0.600
0.400
0.200 All
r-value
- Atlantic
-0.200 Rural
-0.400
-0.600
-0.800
-1.000
e
G e r plo me
an In nt
/ s fing
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't
Figure 3. Immigrant Concentration and Socio-economic Indicators (r-values).
50. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 42
Children (Families)
Like the immigrant cohort, migration for children (aged 5 – 9 years) had little to do
with social indicators. Soccer participation was the only social indicator with a strong result
in the set of all health regions (r = 0.516). However, soccer’s link to economic factors has
already been demonstrated. Indeed, the presence of poor economic conditions goes hand-in-
hand with poor migration results for children. The relationship between average personal
income and migration success for the “children” cohort was found to be in a positive
direction, but the r-value fell below the significance threshold by 0.005.
For the population subsets (rural and Atlantic regions), golf participation was found to
have an effect on migration results for the “children” cohort. This may again be spill over
from economic indicators which are particularly strong for this cohort in the subset
populations. It should be noted that market-size (CMA, urban, density) is weakly correlated
with migration success for this cohort. It would appear that density and urbanization have
little bearing on migration of children (families), while economic opportunities do (e.g.
income adequacy, incidence of low income, long-term unemployment rate, government
transfer income).
For the set of rural regions, economic indicators yielded r-values ranging from |0.534|
to |0.718|. The results were even stronger for the set of Atlantic health regions. There, the
relationship between migration of this cohort and long-term unemployment rates was strong
and in a negative direction (r = -0.829). In other words, the rural and Atlantic regions that
51. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 43
are most successful in attracting/retaining populations of children (hence, families) are those
experiencing the most economic prosperity. In Atlantic Canada, “sense of belonging” also
plays a strong role: it reduces migration success for this cohort. This is likely because “sense
of belonging” is strongly tied to economic circumstances. However, it might also be
indicative of tight-knit communities pushing away outsiders. In- and out-migration must be
dissected from net-migration to determine which of the former or latter conclusions are true.
Further research can also examine the role of children’s social connections in a family’s
decision to migrate. This study has used children aged 5 – 9 years as a proxy for young
families. However, this presents challenges because families often contain multiple children
and can be expected to never delegate the migration decision solely to the children.
Nevertheless, the results outlined above (and in Figure 4) provide some insight.
Migration Success (Children - Families)
and Socio-economic Indicators (r-values)
0.800
0.600
0.400
0.200 All
r-value
-
-0.200 Atlantic
-0.400 Rural
-0.600
-0.800
-1.000
t
e
e
en
y
e
ng
g
er
om
ac
m
m
fi n
cc
m
gi
co
co
qu
ol
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oy
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de
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ow
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na
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T
rm
e
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't
g.
-te
ov
de
Av
ng
G
ci
Lo
In
Figure 4. Migration Success (Children – Families) and Socio-economic Indicators (r-values).
52. Heart-strings and Economic Gravity 44
Youth
This section examines the results for three demographic cohorts: teenagers (aged 15 –
19 years), early-twenty-somethings (aged 20 – 24 years), and late-twenty-somethings (aged
25 – 29 years). Strong and moderately strong correlation coefficient values are reported in
Figure 5, Figure 6 and Figure 7 respectively. The cohorts are grouped for discussion purposes
because their M values responded similarly against the various independent variables. For
example, the social activities that arose from the analysis were the same economically-driven
ones seen in previous cohorts (tennis, soccer, golf and baseball). Similar economic factors also
appeared. The most successful regions economically (unemployment and income) are also
the most successful with respect to youth migration. Interestingly, the strength of this
relationship was found to increase with youth’s ages. Each progressive cohort of the three
has larger absolute r-values for economic indicators. Economic considerations become more
important and better understood as young people age and increasingly rely on their own
employment earnings.
Another interesting finding relates to the relationship between “sense of belonging”
and migration success for these three youth cohorts. The overall community “sense of
belonging” yielded larger absolute r-values than peer “sense of belonging” (“Teen Sense of
Belonging” and “Twenty-something Sense of Belonging”). Overall community “sense of
belonging” is a stronger deterrent to positive youth migration than peer-group “sense of
belonging”. This may be evidence of an underlying social story about how communities