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Ekonometrika
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Referensi ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Kontrak (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Kontrak (2)  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
1. WHAT IS ECONOMETRICS
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
WHY A SEPARATE DISCIPLINE? ,[object Object]
METHODOLOGY OF ECONOMETRICS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
To illustrate the preceding steps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]
The Eight Components of Integrated Service Management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Marketing management (Philip Kotler twelfth edition  ,[object Object]
Initial public offering ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2. THE NATURE OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Anatomy of econometric modeling
THE MODERN INTERPRETATION OF REGRESSION ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
Measurement Scales of Variables ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
TWO-VARIABLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS:SOME BASIC IDEAS ,[object Object]
A HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE in the table refer to a total population of 60 families in a hypothetical community and their weekly income ( X ) and weekly consumption expenditure ( Y ), both in dollars. The 60 families are divided into 10 income groups (from $80 to $260) and the weekly expenditures of each family in the various groups are as shown in the table
E ( Y  |  Xi ) =  β 1 +  β 2 Xi where  β 1 and  β 2 are unknown but fixed parameters known as the  regression coefficients;  β 1 and  β 2 are also known as  intercept  and  slope coefficients,  respectively. Equation (2.2.1) itself is known as the  linear population regression function.  Some alternative expressions used in the literature are  linear population regression model  or simply  linear population regression
THE MEANING OF THE TERM  LINEAR ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
STOCHASTIC SPECIFICATION OF population regression function (PRF) family consumption expenditure on the average increases, the relationship between an individual family’s consumption expenditure and a given level of income? where the deviation  ui  is an unobservable random variable taking positive or negative values. Technically,  ui  is known as the  stochastic disturbance  or  stochastic error term.
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STOCHASTIC DISTURBANCE TERM (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STOCHASTIC DISTURBANCE TERM (2) ,[object Object],[object Object]
THE SAMPLE REGRESSION FUNCTION (SRF)
 
 
3. TWO-VARIABLE REGRESSION MODEL: THE PROBLEM OF ESTIMATION
TWO-VARIABLE REGRESSION MODEL: THE PROBLEM OF ESTIMATION (ordinary least square) ,[object Object]
 
 
Sering ditemukan pada data cross section
Sering ditemukan pada data timeseries
 
THE COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION  r  2 : A MEASURE OF “GOODNESS OF FIT” ,[object Object]
The fundamental psychological law . . . is that men [women] are disposed, as a rule and on average, to increase their consumption as their income increases, but not by as much as the increase in their income,” that is, the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is greater than zero but less than one
 
 
 
 
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EARNINGS AND EDUCATION CONSUMPTION–INCOME RELATIONSHIP IN THE UNITED STATES, 1982–1996
Notes ,[object Object],[object Object]
TWO-VARIABLE REGRESSION MODEL:  THE PROBLEM OF ESTIMATION Recall the two-variable PRF where ˆ Yi  is the estimated (conditional mean) value of  Yi  . which shows that the ˆ ui  (the residuals) are simply the differences between the actual and estimated  Y  values
CLASSICAL NORMAL LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL (CNLRM) ,[object Object]
TWO-VARIABLE REGRESSION: INTERVAL ESTIMATION AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Asumsi Klasik ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
HYPOTHESIS TESTING: GENERAL COMMENTS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Type kesalahan  Keputusan tepat Kesalahan jenis II Jika Ho salah Kesalahan jenis I Keputusan tepat Jika Ho benar Menolak Ho Menerima Ho Hipotesis o
HYPOTHESIS TESTING: THE CONFIDENCE-INTERVAL APPROACH ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
HYPOTHESIS TESTING: THE CONFIDENCE-INTERVAL APPROACH ,[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
 
 
MULTICOLLINEARITY: WHAT HAPPENS IF THE REGRESSORS ARE CORRELATED?
What is the nature of multicollinearity ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
Ciri-Ciri Multikolinieritas (Ghozali, 2005) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
THE NATURE OF MULTICOLLINEARITY ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
multicollinearity may be due to the following factors ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cara mengobati multikolinieritas ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
AUTOCORRELATION: WHAT HAPPENS IF THE ERROR TERMS ARE CORRELATED?
three types of data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
shows a cyclical pattern
suggests an upward or downward linear trend in the disturbances
indicates that both linear and quadratic trend terms are present in the disturbances
indicates no systematic pattern nonautocorrelation
 
DETECTING AUTOCORRELATION ,[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Menanggulangi autokorelasi ,[object Object]
Korelasi
Korelasi ,[object Object]
Auto-korelasi ,[object Object]
Korelasi ,[object Object],1 t 0 1 h(t) 1 t 1.5 2.5 x(t)
Korelasi ,[object Object],1 t 0 1 h(t) 1.5+p 2.5+p 1 t x(t)
Korelasi ,[object Object],1 t 2.5+p 1.5+p x(t-p) h(t)
Korelasi ,[object Object],1 t 2.5+p 1.5+p x(t-p) h(t)
Korelasi ,[object Object],1 t 2.5+p 1.5+p x(t-p) h(t) 1 p y(p) -2.5 -0.5 p+2.5 -p-0.5
Korelasi ,[object Object],1 t p 1+p h(t) 1 t 1.5 2.5 x(t)
Korelasi ,[object Object],1 t 1+p p x(t) h(t-p)
Korelasi ,[object Object],1 t 1+p p x(t) h(t-p)
Korelasi ,[object Object],1 t p 1+p x(t) h(t-p) 1 p y(p) 2.5 0.5 -p+2.5 p-0.5
Autokorelasi ,[object Object],1 t 1+p p h(t-p) h(t)
Autokorelasi ,[object Object],1 t 1+p p h(t-p) h(t)
Autokorelasi ,[object Object],1 p y(p) -1 +1 1+p 1-p
Korelasi
ILUSTRASI ANALISIS REGRESI ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ILUSTRASI ANALISIS REGRESI ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
LANGKAH -LANGKAH ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
HASIL ANALISIS ,[object Object]
PEMERIKSAAN ASUMSI ,[object Object],[object Object]
PEMERIKSAAN ASUMSI ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PEMERIKSAAN ASUMSI ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PEMERIKSAAN ASUMSI ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
INTERPRETASI ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
INTERPRETASI ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
INTERPRETASI ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
INTERPRETASI ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
HETEROSCEDASTICITY WHAT HAPPENS IF THE ERROR VARIANCE IS NONCONSTANT?
 
 
THE CLASSICAL LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL ,[object Object]
There are several reasons why the variances of  ui  may be variable, some of which are as follows ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
There are several reasons why the variances of  ui  may be variable, some of which are as follows ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
what happens to the regression results if the observations for Chile are dropped from the analysis
[object Object]
 
 
DETECTION OF HETEROSCEDASTICITY ,[object Object]
Park Test
Glejser Test
Rank spearman
DUMMY VARIABLE REGRESSION MODELS
model is based on several simplifying assumptions, which are as follows ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
four types of variables ,[object Object],[object Object]
THE NATURE OF DUMMY VARIABLES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Dummy Variables ,[object Object],[object Object]
Coding of dummy Variables ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Multiple categories ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Creating Dummy variables ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Regression with Dummy Variables ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Regression with only a dummy ,[object Object],[object Object]
Omitting a category ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Suggestions for selecting the reference category ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Multiple dummy Variables ,[object Object],[object Object]
Tests of Significance  ,[object Object],[object Object]
Interaction terms ,[object Object],[object Object]
Creating Interaction terms  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Non-Linear Models ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Tractable Non-Linear Models ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Polynomial Models ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Power Functions ,[object Object],[object Object]
Exponential and Logarithmic Functions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Logarithmic Functions
Trigonometric Functions ,[object Object],[object Object]
Intractable Non-linearity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Intractable Non-linearity ,[object Object],[object Object]
Estimating Non-linear models ,[object Object],[object Object]

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Ekonometrika

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  • 6. 1. WHAT IS ECONOMETRICS
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  • 26. 2. THE NATURE OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS
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  • 32. A HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE in the table refer to a total population of 60 families in a hypothetical community and their weekly income ( X ) and weekly consumption expenditure ( Y ), both in dollars. The 60 families are divided into 10 income groups (from $80 to $260) and the weekly expenditures of each family in the various groups are as shown in the table
  • 33. E ( Y | Xi ) = β 1 + β 2 Xi where β 1 and β 2 are unknown but fixed parameters known as the regression coefficients; β 1 and β 2 are also known as intercept and slope coefficients, respectively. Equation (2.2.1) itself is known as the linear population regression function. Some alternative expressions used in the literature are linear population regression model or simply linear population regression
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  • 36. STOCHASTIC SPECIFICATION OF population regression function (PRF) family consumption expenditure on the average increases, the relationship between an individual family’s consumption expenditure and a given level of income? where the deviation ui is an unobservable random variable taking positive or negative values. Technically, ui is known as the stochastic disturbance or stochastic error term.
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  • 39. THE SAMPLE REGRESSION FUNCTION (SRF)
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  • 42. 3. TWO-VARIABLE REGRESSION MODEL: THE PROBLEM OF ESTIMATION
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  • 46. Sering ditemukan pada data cross section
  • 47. Sering ditemukan pada data timeseries
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  • 50. The fundamental psychological law . . . is that men [women] are disposed, as a rule and on average, to increase their consumption as their income increases, but not by as much as the increase in their income,” that is, the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is greater than zero but less than one
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  • 55. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EARNINGS AND EDUCATION CONSUMPTION–INCOME RELATIONSHIP IN THE UNITED STATES, 1982–1996
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  • 57. TWO-VARIABLE REGRESSION MODEL: THE PROBLEM OF ESTIMATION Recall the two-variable PRF where ˆ Yi is the estimated (conditional mean) value of Yi . which shows that the ˆ ui (the residuals) are simply the differences between the actual and estimated Y values
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  • 59. TWO-VARIABLE REGRESSION: INTERVAL ESTIMATION AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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  • 62. Type kesalahan Keputusan tepat Kesalahan jenis II Jika Ho salah Kesalahan jenis I Keputusan tepat Jika Ho benar Menolak Ho Menerima Ho Hipotesis o
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  • 71. MULTICOLLINEARITY: WHAT HAPPENS IF THE REGRESSORS ARE CORRELATED?
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  • 79. AUTOCORRELATION: WHAT HAPPENS IF THE ERROR TERMS ARE CORRELATED?
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  • 82. shows a cyclical pattern
  • 83. suggests an upward or downward linear trend in the disturbances
  • 84. indicates that both linear and quadratic trend terms are present in the disturbances
  • 85. indicates no systematic pattern nonautocorrelation
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  • 118. HETEROSCEDASTICITY WHAT HAPPENS IF THE ERROR VARIANCE IS NONCONSTANT?
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  • 125. what happens to the regression results if the observations for Chile are dropped from the analysis
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