1. The document discusses emerging trends in African agriculture, including the "rediscovery" of agriculture's role in development and changes in agricultural structure. 2. It notes trends toward commercialized agriculture linked into agri-food business systems and concerns about food security at household levels. 3. Africa has significant agricultural potential but will need to meet growing global and local food demand while navigating trade agreements and improving logistics to access markets.

1. EMERGING TRENDS and SCENARIOS
for
AFRICAN AGRICULTURE
Johan van Rooyen, University of Stellenbosch
3rd RUFORM BIENNIAL
27 SEPT 2012, UGANDA

2. SUMMARY
1. EMERGING TRENDS r.e:
• The “rediscovery” of African Agriculture and new
roles for agriculture;
• The changing structure of African Agriculture; and
• Concerns of the evolving development path
2. TOWARDS A STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK:
THRUSTS & TIPPING POINTS
3. DEVELOPMENT PATH SCENARIOS

3. TRENDS (1): REDISCOVERING THE ROLE OF
AGRICULTURE in AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT
Since 2000 crises and opportunity combined in
putting agriculture (back) on the African
development agenda:
• Rising food prices, food insecurity and hunger;
• Stagnation in per capita value added in sub-Saharan
agriculture;
• Increased rural poverty, increasing urbanisation, urban-rural
disparities & social tensions;
• Signs of environmental degradation; loss of bio-diversity.

4. Changes in the thinking (theoretical concepts) and
policies on the Roles of Agriculture in Africa:
(i) From the generally accepted J-M development paradigm of
the 1960/1970’s:
# agricultural growth the key pillar for economic development;
# the role of agriculture to lead industrialization and the structural
transformation of the economy through the following functions:
• Increased food supplies;
• Releasing labour resources to more productive non agri-
industries;
• Earning foreign exchange - exports of food & fibers;
• Capital formation; and a
• Range of large income multipliers & employment linkages.
.

5. (ii) To the effective undermining of the J-M paradigm
over the past three decades, in spite of “Green
Revolution” successes elsewhere:
# economic development policies of the late 70/80’s:
import substitution industrialization, strong anti-
agriculture price biases (World Bank: Krueger, Schiff
& Valdes,1991); and
# structural adjustment policies (1980’s debt crises)
and the so called "Washington Consensus“: direct
cash transfers to the poor and job creating public
work programs, rather than agricultural support as
an instrument for development

6. (iii) To the “rediscovery” of agricultural
development in African economics; both as
contributor to the crises; and also as an instrument
for solutions:
• International agencies: FAO, 2009; World Bank, 2005/07/08/09; Byerlee,
et al, 2009; Badiane, 2009, World Development Reports 2008 & 9;
• The 2005 Report of the Commission for Africa: ”Our common Interest”
emphasised the need for accelerated agricultural growth
• African Heads of State consistently pledged to increase their support and
budgetary allocations to agricultural development
• The Millennium Development goals (MDG’s) situate agriculture to
contribute directly to four of the eight goals, viz eradication of extreme
poverty and hunger; to promote gender equality and empowerment;
ensure environmental sustainability; and develop a global partnership for
development.

7. (iv) To moving towards a new Paradigm?
(Alain De Janvry (Elmhirst Lecture, IAAE,2009) argue for a
new paradigm /a new role of agriculture in development)
“Agriculture having the capacity to contribute
to several dimensions of development”
1. accelerating GDP growth;
2. providing for the growing global demand for food and fiber;
3. reducing poverty and food vulnerability in poor households;
4. narrowing the rural-urban income gap ( and social tensions);
5. supporting environmental sustainability; and
6. contributing to domestic economic specialization and
regional integration and trade.

8. .
A paradigm shift; or is the J-M view just revisited and
updated?
*Not so important what we “call” it, but what is
important in this 2000+ perspective is that future
African agricultural development:
• Must be situated to be part of a comprehensive and
integrated economic development process – not
necessary the leading sector;
• Must not be isolated and segmented development;
and
• Should not sporadicaly and opportunisticaly be
exploited and directed.

9. (v)….and to accommodate some more important
realizations and concerns:
• Approaches where agricultural development resulted
as a series of opportunistic/spontaneous events or
where it was driven by sporadic market forces alone,
did not deliver a sustainable development trajectory;
• (In Africa) NATION STATES are increasingly turning in
to ECONOMIC DOMAINS. Agriculture thus
increasingly to be “exploited” as an Economic
Activity; and
• Agricultural intensification could (again)result in a
“Tragedy of the Commons” and a “scramble for
Africa’s agricultural recourses” (not miniral resources this
time); that will leave Africans out in the cold –again!

10. Conclusion: some key words to be accommodated in
any future agricultural development scenario :
• Agriculture a “Good Contributor”; not necessary “the Major Driver” of
economic growth;
• Agriculture part of Integrated, comprehensive, innovative, interactive
development – not opportunistic, sporadic, isolated;
• Finding “Strategic thrusts” and “Tipping Points” - actions that cause the
“agricultural development virus” (agricultural productivity and growth) to
spread –- farm by farm, district by district, country by country, region by
region( hybrid seed corn, USA,1930’s – Gladwell, Ryan & Gross; Green
Revolution cases, 1960-80’s);
• “Tipping Points” in the “new view of agriculture” likely to be found in :
trade in food, energy and lifestyles; links to super markets; supply chain
management; farm business contracts; green/bio technology; good
governance systems; food security management & politics; and HCD (AET)

11. TRENDS (2) :
THE NEW STRUCTURE OF AFRICAN
AGRICULTURE
1. TOWARDS ACTIVATING AFRICA’S ENORMOUS
AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL
2. MEETING THE EVER GROWING GLOBAL AND LOCAL
DEMAND FOR FOOD & FIBER ( food security)
3. EVOLVING TRENDS IN TRADE AND AG-FOOD BUSINESS
SYSTEMS
4. COMMERCIALISING AGRICULTURE: LINKING OF FARMING
INTO AGRI-FOOD BUSINESS SYSTEMS & CHAINS
5. TOWARDS AN ENVIRONMENTALLY SUSTAINABLE
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY
6. SUB- SAHARAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE – LIMITS TO
GENERALISATION?
7. ASPECTS OF GOVERNANCE AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT

12. # ACTIVATING AFRICAN
AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL
• Per capita production: <200kg/cap - 1984;
600 kg/cap – 2006
• Total production: 300 million – 1984;
750 million – 2006
“Africa Rising”: SOMETHING IS HAPPENING IN
AFRICAN AGRICULTURE (despite the neglect of the
past 30 years!) , although “THE ECONOMIST”
caution about too much short term optimism!

13. Million tons
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
Total
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Per capita (kg)
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Africa, 1964-2006
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
500
550
600
650
700
750
Total and per capita production in

14. The sources of agricultural production
growth:
Arable land Increased yield Cropping
expansion intensity
increases
1961- 1999-2030 1961- 1999-2030 1961- 1999-
1999 1999 1999 2030
Developing 23 21 71 67 6 12
countries
Sub-Saharan 35* 27* 34 61 31** 12
Near East/ 14 13 72 68 14 19
East Asia 26 5 79 81* -5 14
South Asia 6 6 80* 81* 14 13
Latin America 46** 33** 55 46 -1 21*
(FAO STATS)

15. Africa has high potential
agricultural land!

16. Food grain production growth
potential (1980-2050)
Change 1980-2004 (%) 2050 (%)
South America 80* 60
Asia 64 47
Central & North America 40 21
Europe 80* 44
Africa 75 150*
Absa-Agribusiness,2009

17. CONCLUSIONS on PRODUCTION POTENSIAL:
• Future growth in African agriculture largely
through land expansion and increased yield
effects; crop intensity also potential –
irrigation, double cropping, etc
• Productivity - wider defined as only yield
increases; an integrated agricultural
production development strategy, activating
all three sources of agricultural output
growth, called for
• Impact of climate change? - not expected to
cause major production changes over next 30
years (BFAP,2009) on food security ?

18. # Meeting the demand for food at global,
national and household levels: Where, What?
THE GLOBAL SCENARIO:
• Growth in demand for food and fiber - to concentrate in
markets of North America, Western Europe and China.
• Emerging and changing consumer trends in these markets
will be geared to :
# convenience, food safety and quality;
# fun, surprise and taste experiences: and will be
# increasingly sensitive to environmental, ethical and social
considerations- children, mothers, women, workers.
These driven by the trade, retail, activists, education,etc.
• These trends to have profound effects on the food business
systems - production, processing, trading and retailing i.e. the
whole agri - food value chain.

19. Food Market growth potential

20. The African Growth Scenario

21. African urbanisation – New
markets on the door step!
Population in Africa (millions)
1400
1200
1000
800 Rural
600 Urban
400
200
0
1950 1975 2007 2025 2050

22. CONCERNS: WHAT ABOUT FOOD
SECURITY?

23. RESULTS:
# Lowest ratings: 105:Burundi,Chad,DRC=18.4
# Countries of SSA in the lowest third:
Tanz = 26.8
Mal = 27.3
Zam = 28.5
Moz = 29.2
Bot = 56.5
RSA = 61.6
Chin = 62.5;
Braz = 67.6
USA = 89.5

24. THE VALUE OF MACRO/COUNTRY
FOOD SECURITY STATS?
RSA Case:
FSI = 61.7 - but severe food vulnerability at rural
house hold levels:
KZN - 10 rural municipalities
Food Vulnerability Index = 56%
Limpopo- 25 rural municipalities
FVI = 54%
Note: In all cases high potential agri-resources available but
not properly used! Why?

25. Household food security concerns:
• This will remain serious in most African economies
• A holistic, integrated view required focusing on:
# farm production - at national and household levels +
# trade and distribution +
# access – own production, income, grants & safety nets +
# nutrition and diet +
# food safety systems; all at
• Access to food in poor societies to focus on strategies to
enhance both the household level income generation and also
“own” food production and storage capacity- in rural and
urban environments
• Women farmers should be a particular focus point.

26. # Evolving Trade Patterns
Imports ($1000) Exports ($1000) Net exports
70
60
50
40
30
Millions
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40

27. Net Imports of high value foods (t)
Cheese Infant food Frozen potatoes Roasted coffee
20000
0
-20000
-40000
-60000
-80000
-100000

28. Net imports of meat (t)
Beef Game meat Chicken meat
200
100
0
-100
Thousands
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
-700
-800

29. Millions
-5
0
5
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
10
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
Wheat
1981
1983
1985
Maize
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Net imports of grains (t)
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007

30. Net imports of sugar, oilseed cake, flour (t)
Sugar Oilseed cake meal Wheat flour Maize flour
2000
1000
0
Thousands
-1000
-2000
-3000
-4000
-5000

31. Conclusions on evolving agri-trade
patterns
• Per capita production has been increasing
• Net imports have increased but imports are still only
22% of total production, and exports 14%
• No distinct pattern of imports or exports: human
consumption, animal consumption; high value
products are both imported and exported.
• This means that demand has exploded - the
market is there - but Africa’s farmers are
struggling to keep up! Opportunities not
grasped?

32. The nature of African trade linkages:
• “African agriculture will increasingly be targeted
as a source of raw materials for global food & fiber provisions”
(Derrick Byerlee, 2010) : THE NEXT SCRAMBLE FOR AFRICA’S
(FOOD PRODUCTION) RESOURCES IS ALREADY ON!
• The sourcing of raw products from African farmers through
business contracts and/or long term supply arrangements
• farm producers will become "members of the food business team”,
operating in an integrated and coordinated manner with processors and
retail/supermarkets.
• International and local food and agbiz value chains will drive the
“scramble” for Africa’s land and water resources; competition will be
between chains.

33. The changing nature of agri-food
business investments:
• From wholesale/auction market infrastructure -
emphasis on providing access to producers of mass
raw materials; to
• The development of the full value chain
infrastructure and relationships.
• Processing and retail will be the new drivers of
business opportunities in the food system( Reardon,
et al, 2009).
• Commercialising farm production will become a
major investment; a “tipping point” in the emerging
agri- food systems

34. a strategic concern: The “spaghetti bowl” of
African trade agreements, regulations –
enhancing or constraining intra-regional trade?

35. Another strategic concern: The Logistics
Performance Index (WB,2012)
Germany 1 100 %
South Africa 28 78.9%
Brazil 41 70.6%
Senegal 58 59.8%
Botswana 68
Malawi 73
Tanzania 88
Mozambq 136 41.5%
8 of 10 lowest ranked LPI countries in Africa!

36. # The changing nature of African farm
production: towards commercialisation
• The main mode of African agricultural production will remain smallholder
farming; but commercializing smallholder farming complex & difficult
• Traditionally large scale commercial farming systems in countries - South
Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Tanzania and also new corporate farming
ventures are highly successful with technical innovation and market
responses – driving African productivity and production increases;
• Apart from farm production scale economic advantages, large scale
farming render lower transactions costs to deliver into agri-food value
chains; and
• Large scale farming competes more effectively with non-agricultural
opportunities for investment, reward and remuneration.
Large scale commercial farming, linking in to ag-food value
chains, expected to dominate African agricultural growth and
development scenarios.

37. A CONCERN: DOES AG-FOOD VALUE CHAIN DOMINATED BUSINESS
SYSTEMS AGITATE AGAINST AFRICAN SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE?
WOULD THIS CONSTRAIN PROGRESS?
• Producers, linked to ag-food value chains generally found to be better off
due to price and quality considerations and due to sustained long term
value prospects;
• Companies in the value chain and retail/super markets generally prefer to
source from larger scale operations, rather than from smallholders due
many considerations:
* high transactions costs;
* problems with volume and quality consistency and delivery ;
• Larger farms are generally better equipped to benefit from this
transformation – specialisation + diversification and providing sustained
employment opportunities.

38. • Recent case studies on the relation between smallholder
agriculture and ag-food value chain driven business systems
do not support the view that this will effectively exclude
smallholders and asset poor farmers from future business
opportunities:
• Various cases where raw products are sourced from small
holders- not "as an act of charity or corporate social
responsibility"- because their inclusion is profitable, even
with large producers operating in the same sector: sugar,
vegetables, milk, fruit, meat (Nestle, 2009;
Shoprite/Checkers,2009);
• Where smallholders dominate the agrarian structure and
markets are expanding; and
• through “social protocols” - the BEE Score Card system in SA
for example – where agbusiness companies source from
smallholder “schemes/projects”

39. Conclusion: towards new farming business
models/typologies in Africa:
The emergence of outgrower schemes, contract farming,
cooperative/group schemes, lead by private sector initiatives
with public sector participation (PPP’s), to enable:
• the requisite non- land assets such as infrastructure, access to
land, irrigation, farm equity, farmer associations/producer
cooperatives, transport and communication systems through
partnership arrangements with government agencies;
• cost saving “economies of scale” collective input supply
contracts between smallholders and agribusinessess; and to
• Effectively address business related constraints such as access
to funding, lack of credit ,weak E & T and R & D support,
market access, etc.
• Job creation to stabilise rural environments?

40. # ENVIRONMENTALLY SUSTAINABLE AGRI-
PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
In view of the expected global sourcing of raw materials from
Africa; while striving to achieve the envisaged doubling of
food production by 2050, African Agriculture provide great
scope to:
• position as a core component of an environmentally
sustainable economic production system – chemicals, energy,
low input production, etc;
• to apply green-technology and produce bio-based
commodities - liquid fuels, agri-chemicals, animal feeds;
• Note recent initiatives by the Consultative Group of
International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) to establish/ link
global research networks to promote an economic system
striving for reductions in water, land, nutrients and chemicals

41. # Limits to generalizations: Africa
is big and diverse!

42. # Good Governance systems for
Agricultural Growth and Development
It is now the time to recognise the importance,
opportunities and need to direct development and
investment - “Good investment protocols” to:
• Counter “land grabs” and sporadic/opportunistic “exploitation” of Africa’s
rich agricultural resource base;
• Promote social & environmentally responsible (sustainable) agriculture:
link economics, ethics & environment to development strategies and
investment; and to
• Stabilise communities by facilitating smallholder involvement, job creation
and broad based participation in new developments

43. Conclusions :
• “Africa Rising” (Economist): Collective African GDP of $ 1.8
trillion = Brazil, Russia; 316 million subscribed mobile phones;
52 African cities> 1million; 29 countries with revenues>
$3bill;12 countries with GDP/cap> China
• Differing production growth potentials; food security index's;
resource bases, urbanisation, pop growth, productivities, etc
• Different trade blocks & policies;
• Joint declarations & commitments: joint initiatives: fund
mobilisation, emerging regional agribusiness trade; etc; and
So, Africa have sufficient “muscle” and common interests to
dare to create strategic and operational frameworks and
protocols to direct the agricultural development path - but
keep diversities in mind

44. TOWARDS THE FUTURE: STRATEGIC THRUSTS &
TIPPING POINTS FOR AFRICAN AGRICULTURE
The particular scenario for African agriculture is expected to
evolve within a environment of an “aggressive” expansion of
agribusiness to cover the entire supply/value chain. This will
result in:
• Increased agric production: commercial farmers + out growers + farm
production for home consumption;
• Increased employment and livelihood along the value chain;
• Improved input supply markets : fertilizers, mechanisation, seeds, etc;
• Expanding processing, packaging, certification, food safety controls;
• Growing services: banking, cell phones, contracting,…;
• The rise of the retail sector: supermarkets, fast foods, niche markets,
informal markets;
• But will need “checks and ballances” r.e. social, environment, ethics.

45. Five Strategic, Cross Cutting
Thrusts:
In this changing environment five important cross
cutting thrusts will be required to direct the future
Growth Path for African Agriculture:
1.STIMULATION of MARKET LINKAGES: to commercialise African
agriculture through linkages to local and global markets, supply chain
development, infrastructure, info, legal provisions, harmonised trade policies;
2. ACCOMMODATING SOCIAL/LIVELIHOOD CONSIDERATIONS:
focus on employment and household level food security and vulnerability as a
major concern of many poor African households-in rural and urban
environments – smallholder support systems;
3. DESIGNING for a SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENT : the design of
environmentally sustainable agriculture, including bio-based practices, and
appropriate governance systems to incentivise farming communities and
agribusinesses to introduce and maintain such practices in their production
systems;

46. Five strategic “cross cutting” thrusts:
4. GOOD GOVERNANCE and LEADERSHIP: accountable
agricultural management, governance and leadership;and
investment protocols, development charters, etc. to enable
sustainable production; and to empower farm producers, in
particular women groups, to have a “telling” voice in:
• value chain governance and added value distribution; and
• in the designing and implementation of rural & agricultural
development initiatives and models;
5. HUMAN CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT : providing the required
human capacity/capital, skills and agents to drive agricultural
growth and development. Women & young farmers to be an
important focus; technicians, managers and specialists required
by the value chain. An innovative AET system will prove pivotal
to activate all the above thrusts.

47. A SCENARIO MATRIX:
The degree to which each of these Five Strategic Thrusts will be
implemented, give content to a Scenario Matrix:
Strategic Development Path Scenarios:
Thrusts: Exploitative Sporadic Vibrant
1. Market linkages segmented opportunistic interactive
2. Social/livelihood exploitative skew equitable
3. Environmental exploitative opportunistic sustainable
4. Governance opportunistic inconsistent accountable
5. Human capital exploitative inconsistent empowering