1. SPECIAL REPORT
JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE Monday, November 14, 2011
DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GENERAL IDX RIC: Q.DFMGI
SERIOUS SHIFT IN PSYCHOLOGY
The lower highs pattern still in force but so far the index refused to
continue the series of lower lows putting an obstacle in front of a ma-
jor bear market. This shift isn't , however, a signal, by itself, that the
worst possible news has been discounted in the price, but, however, a
failure to continue with prior patterns indicates that a “possible” shift
in psychology is materializing.
Sellers are less motivated, powerful and aggressive than buyers. If you
cannot get that from Momentum analysis, then you should know that
the current falling red channel is registering the lower percentage de-
cline (nearly 19.8%) than the prior two declines (22.3% and 25.4%). It
seems that the index is falling from its weight.
While the index oscillates between two declining lines, the RSI oscil-
lates in a bearish range between 30 and 60. A fall out of the range fol-
lowed by a thrust to the upper resistance level. The up-breakout over
the bearish resistance line in the immediately preceding range has led
the breakout in the index itself. Should history repeats itself, we may
expect a serious up-breakout over the current red channel (1,425) giv-
en that the RSI penetrated its resistance level.
We have only one clue of a possible major change in the structure. As
long as a series of lower highs continue, you should be very careful
from a quick access to a bullish conclusion. Threatening both the de-
clining red resistance line and the 50-day EMA should come with no
surprise, but you are advised to not overestimate the forthcoming
move as the bear market still in force. Current and prospected buyers
should “Hide in Cash” below 1,335
BOTTOM LINE: (Last price: 1,393pt.) Buy a breakout over
1,420, Take some profits near 1,450 with a stop lies just below
1,400. Conservative Stop level lies below 1,335.
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2. SPECIAL REPORT
JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE Monday, November 14, 2011
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