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ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

BIOFUELS OUTLOOK
LUIS SCOFFONE

CITI CLIMATE CONFERENCE
LONDON
JUNE 6, 2011

1 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 06/06/2011

DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE

The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell”
are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used
to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or
companies. „„Subsidiaries‟‟, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in which Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly
has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not control
are referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control are referred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In this presentation,
associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or
indirect (for example, through our 24% shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all
third-party interest.

This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than
statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on
management‟s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ
materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal
Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management‟s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements
are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as „„anticipate‟‟, „„believe‟‟, „„could‟‟, „„estimate‟‟, „„expect‟‟, „„intend‟‟, „„may‟‟, „„plan‟‟, „„objectives‟‟, „„outlook‟‟,
„„probably‟‟, „„project‟‟, „„will‟‟, „„seek‟‟, „„target‟‟, „„risks‟‟, „„goals‟‟, „„should‟‟ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future
operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including
(without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell‟s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results;
(e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential
acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to
international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and
financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental
entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking
statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place
undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell‟s 20-F for the year ended 31 December,
2010 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the
date of this presentation, 6 June 2011. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking
statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the
forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this presentation in the
future, or that they will be made at all.

We may use certain terms in this presentation, such as resources and oil in place, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit
us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website
www.sec.gov. You can also obtain these forms from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.


ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
MACRO
ENVIRONMENT


ENERGY SCENARIOS

THREE HARD TRUTHS

I. Global energy demand is growing
II. Energy supply will struggle to keep up with demand growth
III. Climate change looms as a critical global issue

INCREASING POPULATION: INCREASED PROSPERITY:
key driver of energy demand increased energy use
GJ per capita (primary energy)
400

300
USA
Europe EU 15
200 Japan
South Korea
100 China
India
0
0 10 20 30 40

GDP per capita (PPP, ‘000 2000 USD)

SOURCES: World Bank WDI, Oxford Economics, UN Population Division, Energy Balances of OECD Countries © OECD/IEA 2006, Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries © OECD/IEA 2006


ENERGY OUTLOOK

GLOBAL ENERGY MIX

Mln Boe/d
Industry outlook

400  Hydrocarbons dominate outlook
 Growth required in all sectors of energy mix
300  Energy policy + sustained investment

200 Shell
 Crude oil & oil products
100  Natural gas & LNG
 Biofuels, wind, carbon capture + storage
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2050
 Petrochemicals

OIL BIOMASS COAL
GAS WIND NUCLEAR
SOLAR
SHELL ACTIVITIES
OTHER RENEWABLES

SHELL ESTIMATES


SHELL: STRATEGY & CAPITAL ALLOCATION

STRATEGY CAPITAL INVESTMENT

$ Bln

Upstream
150
 Profitable growth; price upside
 >80% of total capital spending 100% SOUR
HEAVY OIL & EOR

 Sustained exploration investment TIGHT GAS

100 EXPLORATION

Downstream DEEPWATER

UP-
 Stable capital employed STREAM 50%
TRADITIONAL

 Fewer refineries; upgrade chemicals assets 50
INTEGRATED GAS

 More concentrated marketing positions
CHEMICALS
DOWN- REFINING
Down-
stream
STREAM MARKETING
Financial outlook 0 0%
2007-10 2011-14 2007-10 2011-14
 Generating surplus cashflow through cycle
 Investing for growth; competitive payout
 Substantial cashflow growth

GROWTH INVESTMENT – THROUGH CYCLE RETURNS


SHELL & CO2

NATURAL GAS BIOFUELS

QatarGas 4: First Cargo arriving at Hazira terminal Raizen: Sugar cane harvesting
CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Mongstad: CCS Project Shell Fuelsave: 1 liter less per tank


ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
TRANSPORTATION
FUELS


TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION

TIME TO MATERIALITY

TJ/Year
 It takes 30 years to span
1.0E+09
the 1000-fold growth to
1.0E+08
get from „test‟ scale to
materiality (1-2% of total
1.0E+07 primary energy supply)
"Materiality"
 Thereafter deployment
1.0E+06
rises linearly to ultimate
1.0E+05 share in the mix
 Focus must be on the
1.0E+04
technologies we know
1.0E+03
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total Oil Nuclear
LNG Biofuels - 1st Gen Biofuels - 2nd Gen
Solar Photovoltaic Wind CCS
"Laws"
Haigh/Kramer – Nature 462 (2009)


TRANSPORT DEMAND GROWTH

WORLD PASSENGER TRANSPORT ROAD WORLD FREIGHT TRANSPORT ROAD

billion vehicle km per year billion vehicle km per year
40,000 40,000

30,000 30,000

20,000 20,000

10,000 10,000

0 0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Liquid Hydrocarbon Fuels Gaseous Hydrocarbon Fuels
 Oil remains dominant next two decades
Biofuels 1st gen Electricity  Strong growth in biofuels
Biofuels 2nd gen Hydrogen
 Strong efficiency improvements required
 Electrification making inroads next decade

SOURCE: IEA, SHELL SOURCE: IEA, SHELL


GASOLINE COMPARED TO ALTERNATIVE FUELS
WELL-TO-WHEEL CO2 INTENSITIES
CONVENTIONAL GASOLINE BASELINE CONVENTIONAL DIESEL BASELINE

+34% +50%

+12%

-11%
-16% -6%

-40% -33%

-84%* -82%*
-89%*

Source: CONCAWE/JRC/EUCAR WtW report (version 3) * Biofuels numbers do not include possible indirect land use change effects


REGULATED MARKETS FOR BIOFUELS

Current Mandates
Target/future mandate
In discussion
Pilot Mandates/Area Based
Mandate Revoked/Incentives Introduced


ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
BIOFUELS


SHELL AND BIOFUELS

SHELL PORTFOLIO COMMITTED TO SUSTAINABILITY
SHELL GLOBAL BIOCOMPONENT SHELL‟S BIOCOMPONENT
FEEDSTOCK PURCHASE Q4 2010 PURCHASES COVERED BY
SUSTAINABILITY CLAUSES

Corn Wheat Fully signed up
Sugar Cane Other Yet to sign up
Rape Seed

 World's largest biofuels distributor: 9.5 billion
liters in 2010
 Sustainable sourcing of 1st generation biofuels
 Leading technology and next generation portfolio
 Global research capabilities


SHELL ADVANCED BIOFUELS PORTFOLIO

 Cellusosic ethanol  Enzymes to convert  Plant sugars directly
from agricultural biomass to transport to transport fuels
waste fuels:
Gasoline components

Sugar Ethanol

Cellulosic Ethanol

Biomass to Gasoline
Diesel components

Biomass to Diesel/Jet

HVO

Microbes To diesel

Research & Demonstration Project First Commercial
Development Assessment Commercial Roll-out
Plant


BIOFUELS GROWTH

RAÍZEN JOINT VENTURE (COSAN)

Brazil: harvesting sugarcane


BIOFUELS
RAIZEN: ETHANOL & SUGAR
GLOBAL ETHANOL PRODUCERS BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE PRODUCERS
PRODUCTION BLN LITRES PER YEAR (ESTIMATE 2010/2011) 80
MLN TONNES (ESTIMATE 2010/2011)
6

60

5
40

4 20

0
3

 Sugarcane crushing capacity:
2
 ~60 mtpa from 24 mills
 market leader in Brazil; market share ~10%
1  2.2 bln litres ethanol production capacity per year,
growth aspiration to 4 bln litres per year
 Sugar production > 3 mtpa
0
 Cogeneration installed capacity 625 MW, excess
electricity for sale this year: 1,200-1,500 GWh
Source: data provided by Cosan, sourced from Czarnikow Group


RAIZEN: SOCIAL PERFORMANCE

COMMITMENTS COSAN INDICATORS

 Cosan contributed to and is signatory to additional  41,000 employees (during peak of harvest) of
commitments: which 36,000 operational, of which
27,000 agri-workers
 National Commitment for the Improvement of
Labor Conditions in Sugarcane Production
 Agro-Environmental Protocol for the Sugar  Manual harvesters: workday 7hrs 20mins,
and Ethanol Sector (Green Protocol) wages ~60% above minimum wage
 Bonsucro formerly the Better Sugarcane
Initiative (BSI) standards  Mechanization: Cosan accelerated & reached
64% in areas with slope <12%

 Social investment in communities:
 Cosan Foundation: educating ~ 600
children
 Other social initiatives reaching ~70,000
people

Cosan foundation


RAIZEN: ENVIRONMENT

REDUCING IMPACTS, DELIVERING BENEFTIS

 Brazilian sugar cane ethanol best performing biofuel:
 European Renewable Energy Directive assigns sugar cane
ethanol with a 71% GHG savings, compared to gasoline
 U.S. EPA designated Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as an
advanced biofuel due to its 61% reduction of total life cycle GHG
emissions
 Cogeneration of electricity from by-product bagasse:
 reducing emissions & generating revenues from electricity sales
 625 MW installed capacity, with excess electricity for sale this
year between 1,200 to 1,500 GWh
 Recycling of by-products: vinasse, filter cake and ash used as natural
potassium-rich fertilizer
 Accelerated mechanization reduces emissions & water use
 Closed water circuits in 19 of 24 units
 Cosan pioneered biological pest control
 Satellite geo-monitoring - a unique competitive advantage


ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
SUMMARY


TRANSPORT SECTOR: A MOSAIC OF SOLUTIONS

 The mobility fuel mix will continue to diversify but hydrocarbon fuels will dominate
 All transport solutions will face challenges of introduction and adoption.
 A “mosaic” of solutions will be adopted in different regions of the world.
 The most effective solutions for achieving a new low CO2 energy future are vehicle efficiency and biofuels
 Electrification will feature in the long term. A switch from coal to gas in power generation will be important to
ensure electric vehicles can fulfil their potential.

Emission
Concerns

Energy 2010 2025 2050 Cost
Security
Concerns “BAU” “Simple Mosaic” “Full Mosaic” Concerns


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