23. “the commission recommends consideration of
further modifications to federal tax incentives
for homeownership to allow for an increase in
the level of support provided to affordable rental
housing”
39. “My debt is crushing my chances
of purchasing a home.”
40. one of three
source: prosumer-report.com - http://www.prosumer-report.com/blog/2012/03/12/moneyless-millennials-and-their-new-lives-of-financial-dependence/
42. I can afford rent, but the dream of owning a home has become
just as ludicrous as the one where I win the Olympic Gold Medal
for figure skating. At 29, I no longer see home ownership as an
option. I no longer see anything but renting in my future, and the
only possibility is that one day I will be able to rent a home and
pretend a little better than I do in this one bedroom apartment.
— Jennie Fernandez, 29
Albuquerque, N.M
43. 10 years ago, Steve Jobs, Johnny Cash,
and Bob Hope were still alive.
44. X X X
Today, we have no Jobs, no Cash, and no Hope
59. Conclusions & Even More Questions:
Knowns:
• Government support for real estate simply cannot last
• Elites have turned against homeownership
• Gen-Y Will Not Save Housing
• Real Estate Agent: Loss of Value
• REALTORS(R) Can’t Win the Fight Over Pie
Unknowns:
• Will Europe hold up? Will China?
• How will new laws, new taxes, & new regulations affect employment?
Black Swan Events:
• Open warfare
• Currency Collapse
• Zombies
69. Three Identities of Associations
consumerist unionist activist
members are members are members are
buyers workers activists
products and income
political power
services protection
competitors loss of franchise apathy
Thank you to NAR, to Marc Lebowitz, to Laurie Oken, and to all of you.
Jed gave us hope! He’s an actual economist, and knows way more than I do. So what am I doing here talking about the Association of the Future? I’m here to offer a look beyond and behind the numbers. Because sometimes, the numbers don’t tell the whole story.
Trend #1 is that America is becoming “renter nation”.
We are now officially at $16T in debt. $1.6T in deficit spending annually. The major flaw with the assumption that the Feds will keep real estate propped up is that they might run out of money before they run out of desire.
Mandatory spending includes entitlements like $773B for Social Security, $733B for Medicare & Medicaid, and VA benefits, etc. which are REQUIRED by law to be paid.
“ In other words, they could cut the entirety of the Federal Government’s discretionary budget– no more military, SEC, FBI, EPA, TSA, DHS, IRS, etc.– and they would still be in the hole by a quarter of a trillion dollars.” - Simon Black, Sovereignman.com
“ In other words, they could cut the entirety of the Federal Government’s discretionary budget– no more military, SEC, FBI, EPA, TSA, DHS, IRS, etc.– and they would still be in the hole by a quarter of a trillion dollars.” - Simon Black, Sovereignman.com
“ In other words, they could cut the entirety of the Federal Government’s discretionary budget– no more military, SEC, FBI, EPA, TSA, DHS, IRS, etc.– and they would still be in the hole by a quarter of a trillion dollars.” - Simon Black, Sovereignman.com
FHA, GSE, HUD, everything
the Elites have turned against housing
Trend #1 is that America is becoming “renter nation”.
It isn’t clear what this means, but it means whatever came before is “unsustainable”.
USDA first casualty???
13,500 showed up in person; 13,500 joined “virtually”.
wisconsin labor unions gave it their all; spent $35m; Scott Walker still won
Richard Smith, Realogy; Frank Keating, American Bankers Association;
in that context, the commission recommends consideration of further modifications to federal tax incentives for homeownership to allow for an increase in the level of support provided to affordable rental housing
Some of our states and municipalities are in bad shape. Cities are especially dependent on property taxes.
Ergo... homeownership will no longer be a national priority
Ergo... homeownership will no longer be a national priority
BofA: Priya Misra, 2012.
Ergo... homeownership will no longer be a national priority
Ergo... homeownership will no longer be a national priority
Ergo... homeownership will no longer be a national priority
Been hearing this for ten years.
unemployment and UNDERemployment rampant. YOUTH unemployment is the highest since WW2.
50% of college graduates are unemployed or underemployed, working jobs that don’t require a degree.
40% of all 18 to 29 yr olds have trouble paying their bills. Graduating during a recession, unfortunately, can affect an individual economically for up to 15 years—and not in a positive way.
For college graduates, student debt is absolutely CRUSHING them. Cost of college education has increased faster than inflation for over a decade.
For college graduates, student debt is absolutely CRUSHING them. Cost of college education has increased faster than inflation for over a decade.
For college graduates, student debt is absolutely CRUSHING them. Cost of college education has increased faster than inflation for over a decade.
Roshell Schenck has a Ph.D. in pharmacy and earns $125,000 a year. Yet, because she has more than $110,000 in student loan debt, counselors have told her she can’t qualify for a mortgage. “I’d love to buy and can afford to buy,” says the 28-year-old graduate of Lake Erie College of Osteopathic Medicine in Erie, Pa. With lenders scrutinizing college loans more closely than in previous years, it’s almost impossible for borrowers such as Schenck to get approved for mortgages. “My debt is crushing my chances of purchasing a home.”
And one of 3 young adults living at home with mama. Highest level since 1950.
Gen-Y might want to buy, but they don’t see just how they’ll manage that. http://www.npr.org/2012/06/07/154095235/to-own-or-rent
Gen-Y might want to buy, but they don’t see just how they’ll manage that. http://www.npr.org/2012/06/07/154095235/to-own-or-rent
But Gen-Y isn’t all unemployed. Some of them are doing well, and buying. What are they like?
highly educated, very very smart, tech-savvy, accomplished They have to be to get good jobs in this economy.
Three speakers: one is the financial comptroller of a major waste management firm. Another does international investment work. Woman is a doctor.
One of the most popular articles on The Atlantic, by Kate Bolick.
Charles Murray: Upper Middle Class marriage rates down 10% from 1960 to 2010. Working class marriage down 35%, from 83% in 2960 to 48% in 2010. Majority of working class NOT married.
From 2010
"In one Manhattan ZIP code, for example, women account for 63 percent of 22-year-olds."
"In one Manhattan ZIP code, for example, women account for 63 percent of 22-year-olds."
Charles Murray: Upper Middle Class marriage rates down 10% from 1960 to 2010. Working class marriage down 35%, from 83% in 2960 to 48% in 2010. Majority of working class NOT married.
Trend #3: the technology war is over.
New U.S. single-family home sales unexpectedly fell in February to hit a record low and prices were the lowest since December 2003, a government report showed on Wednesday, suggesting the housing market slide was deepening.
Consumers say this. So do your members.
Consumers say this. So do your members.
Consumers say this. So do your members.
what percentage of your members...
what percentage of your members...
13,500 showed up 13,500 joined “virtually” 2.7% turnout rate
Narwhal platform --> possibly the reason why Obama beat Romney
CROWDVERB, CivicScience
Nov. 2011 numbers
your members, by their very nature, have trust relationships with clients and ex-clients