Presentation at Market Research in the Mobile World Conference
1. Futuring Tools and the Futures of
Market Research
Robert Moran April 19, 2012
2. It’s a VUCA World
The future will be more discontinuous with the past.
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3. Creative Disruption:
The 6Ds That Will Change Commerce (and eventually MR)
Disruption Ethos “Blur Group Raises $2M To Disrupt How Marketers Pick Creatives
For Campaigns”
Disintermediation Remember “travel agents”? “Process gatekeepers” beware.
Digitization Book stores, music stores, cameras, libraries, paper maps, cash…
Dematerialization Smaller products. Less material.
Often shifting focus to experience around product.
Democratization Crowdsourcing, crowdfunding, DEWmocracy, “Rateocracy”,
customer in charge in a radically transparent world.
DIY Niche products, the maker movement, and eventually 3D printing
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4. Foresight Tools for Thinking About the Futures
Futures Cone
Now
Potential
Plausible Possible
Probable
Copyright 2000:
Joseph Voros
Preferable
Potential
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5. The Importance of STEEP in Plural Futures
• Social
• Technological
• Economic
• Ecological
• Political
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6. The Incremental Approach
Alternative
Future
Alternative Future
Future
Alternative
Future
Alternative
Today Future
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7. The Stretch Scenario Approach
Exploring futures via two greatest uncertainties
Uncertainty 2
Alternative Future A Alternative Future B
Uncertainty 1
Alternative Future C Alternative Future D
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9. Market Research Futures Shock. A Sampler.
2011 2021
Moving Beyond the Survey
80% of global research spending is The survey will not die, but
currently dedicated to quantitative, research will move beyond
survey-based, research the survey to social media
(ESOMAR, 2010) listening, observational and
co-creative (MROCs) tools.
Established competitors will
struggle through this transition.
Growing Emerging Markets Two thirds of all traditional marketing Research spending will shift
research is conducted in the five toward the emerging economies
aging industrial democracies of the and firms that have strong
United States (30%), the United research capacity in the
Kingdom (11%), Germany (9%), emerging economies will
France (9%) and Japan (6%) grow more rapidly.
(ESOMAR, 2010).
―…the next decade will…mark
the definitive breakthrough of the
global middle class, and demand
from this group will be among the
crucial economic factors of world
economy‖ – Copenhagen
Institute for Futures Studies 9
10. 5 MegaTrends Shaping the Futures of Our Industry
• Data Abundance ―Rateocracy‖, social media, ―lifestreaming‖, IoT
• Asking-Observing Shift ―listening posts‖ and feedback loops
• Democratization UGC, co-creation, predictive markets
• Convergence domain, tool and data
• Strategic Imperative evolving value in a data-abundant world
http://www.futureofinsight.com/interviews/ 10
http://www.greenbookblog.org/2011/02/21/lead-up-to-the-iir-tdmr-interview-with-robert-moran-of-strategyone/
11. Abundance and the Deindustrialization of Research
Function
Collecting Filtering
Data acquisition costs drop
Looking Looking
Temporal focus shifts
Backward Forward
Form
Economies Customized
of Sale Data acquisition costs drop
Service
Command Consultative,
and Control Temporal focus shifts
Learning Based
Pyramid
Now Future
―As an industry, we’re often criticized for our lack of
insight and an overreliance on an industrialised
view of research.―
Mike Cooke, ESOMAR: 2009 11
12. One Plausible Evolutionary Path
Anticipatory
Co-Creative
Anticipatory
Observational
UGC
• Focus shifts from
mapping current
Data Collection—Asking (Survey) opinion to anticipating
Listening Neurological Behavioral future behaviors and
• Collaborative alternative futures
2008- co-creation • Mass simulation
• User- gaming*
Face to Face Telephone Online Geomobile generated • MROC Delphi panels*
• Move away • Track • CRM
content
from the survey neurological software • Strategic Foresight
(UGC)
instrument response • Big data • Agent-based
as the main • Insights
• fMRI • Experimental computational
• Mobile surveys research vehicle communities
• Face to Face • Telephone • Online surveys • Eye-tracking marketing modeling
(MROCs) will
surveys surveys • Prompted by • Location-based • Dramatic shift and other • Predictive markets
• Geotracking dominate
• Vertically declining telephone research from Intrusive, biological
interrogatory • Clickstreams • Creation
integrated survey participation • Augmented response
research, to of ―design
data rates and online Reality monitoring
passive, listening- communities‖
collection technology
• ―Lifestreaming‖
systems • Data becomes based research
abundant and • Social media
inexpensive research
• Shift to • ―Listening posts‖
―convenience • MROCS
samples‖ • Text analytics
• ―Rateocracy‖
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16. Socially Driven Scenarios Technology Driven Scenarios Economically Drive Scenarios
The Incredible Shrinking Survey Geo-Timed Feedback Dispersive Convergence
Do Not Disturb Rapid In-Market Experimentation Lilliput
Back to the Future Iterative Insight Streaming E-Agency
What was privacy? Portal Power Global Depth
Power to the People Let’s Play a Game Need for Speed
From Value to Values Limbic Space Invaders
Tribal Rituals Nano-Targeting Anticipation
Epidemiology
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17. Three Futures
Definition Signals
Co-creative design communities replace traditional
market research. These are either open (and
massive) or closed and proprietary. Project directors DEWmocracy, My Starbucks Idea,
Power to the People become community managers and engagement HYVE’s Innovation communities
becomes the core concern. http://www.hyve.de/ , Ideascale
All key consumer data is integrated on a single online
interface. The portal becomes the most important
―real estate‖ in market research. The portal provider Nunwood’s Fizz Dashboards and Fizz
Portal Power becomes market research’s landlord. Corporate Library, Clarabridge, Salesforce.com ,
insights departments and CMOs guard these portals CRM-CEM software companies
jealously.
Mechanical Turk, Victors & Spoils,
Market research firms are replaced by individual e- guru.com, honestly.com, Angie’s List
lancers. Market researchers are hired based on their
online competency scores at honestly.com or by their Headline: ―Blur Group Raises $2M To
E-Agency Disrupt How Marketers Pick Creatives
―whuffie‖ rating on future reputational currency sites.
For Campaigns‖
18. Three potential outcomes for the traditional
marketing research industry:
Transcendence Convergence Stagnation
• Traditional MR repositions • Collision of marketing • Traditional marketing
itself at center of wider research, management research refuses to evolve,
insights industry consulting, social media preferring to stay with
analytics, data mining, questioning rather than
• Traditional MR absorbs and software observing tools
and integrates tools
and knowledge from • Produces a synthesis • Continues to execute
wider industry, placing of tools and blurring tactical research projects
itself at the top of of roles while wider insights
the strategic insights industry passes it by
value chain • Convergence is
forced on traditional
MR industry and
adjustment is difficult
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19. NextGen Insights Firms Will
o Harness mobile (in the moment) research
o Moving from gatekeeper to guide
o Make the leap from the Asking to the Observing Era
o Master ―listening‖
o Build insight communities (MROCs)
o Triangulate: Pull insights from multiple data streams
o Transition from projects to consultative retainers
o Build ethnographic capacity at a global level for the global middle class
o Master data visualization
o Leverage 24-7 global clock
o Develop foresight capacity
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20. The best way to predict the future is to make it.
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Notas do Editor
5 Megatrends will shape our industry over the next ten years.The first is data abundance. Data is no longer scarce.The next is the seismic shift from asking to observing.The third is the democratization of research – a future where the consumer co-createsThe fourth is convergence on multiple layers. Industry convergence as new entrants join our space, the convergence of tools not traditionally thought of as research tools, and the convergence of data streams.The fifth is the need for the industry to ascend the data, information, knowledge, insight, foresight, strategy pyramid.
Critical to understanding the process of scenario development is the so-called “Futures Cone”. As you can see, the further out in time we look, the greater the number of possible futures. The key is to identify plausible futures first, analyze the implications of these futures , select a range of preferred futures, and work toward those while reducing the likelihood of undesirable futures.
5 Megatrends will shape our industry over the next ten years.The first is data abundance. Data is no longer scarce.The next is the seismic shift from asking to observing.The third is the democratization of research – a future where the consumer co-createsThe fourth is convergence on multiple layers. Industry convergence as new entrants join our space, the convergence of tools not traditionally thought of as research tools, and the convergence of data streams.The fifth is the need for the industry to ascend the data, information, knowledge, insight, foresight, strategy pyramid.
5 Megatrends will shape our industry over the next ten years.The first is data abundance. Data is no longer scarce.The next is the seismic shift from asking to observing.The third is the democratization of research – a future where the consumer co-createsThe fourth is convergence on multiple layers. Industry convergence as new entrants join our space, the convergence of tools not traditionally thought of as research tools, and the convergence of data streams.The fifth is the need for the industry to ascend the data, information, knowledge, insight, foresight, strategy pyramid.
First, as a sampler there are the dynamic duo of moving beyond the survey and moving beyond the developed world.Today…80% of the work we do is survey based. That won’t last.And, two thirds of all market research is conducted in the developed world. That won’t last either. The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies lists trend 5 as the rise of the global middle class. The what and where of market research is going to change. Ten years from now the winners will have successfully navigated their firms beyond a dependence on surveys in the developed world.
5 Megatrends will shape our industry over the next ten years.The first is data abundance. Data is no longer scarce.The next is the seismic shift from asking to observing.The third is the democratization of research – a future where the consumer co-createsThe fourth is convergence on multiple layers. Industry convergence as new entrants join our space, the convergence of tools not traditionally thought of as research tools, and the convergence of data streams.The fifth is the need for the industry to ascend the data, information, knowledge, insight, foresight, strategy pyramid.
Let’s first look at the baseline forecast.The baseline forecast is our best estimate.Based on my research, interviews and writing I believe that market research will evolve along a four era continuum. There will be overlap in these eras.The first era, which we are exiting is the Asking era dominated by the survey. We were all acculturated in this era. That itself is a red flag.The next era will be the observational era dominated by data scraping, data mining, social media analytics, and lots of behavioural data.This will eventually give way to the co-creative era of research, as consumers demand ever greater input into the products we sell them and as marketers begin to develop community around co-creation.And this in turn will give way to the anticipatory era of market research. This era will be defined by games as research, by ubiquitous predictive markets, and by MROCs as Delphi panels.
Some of these scenarios will not surprise.Others will seem far fetched.I’m going to cite Dator’s Law now:“Any useful statement about the futures should appear to be ridiculous.”
So, let’s take a look at some plausible futures scenarios that I have developed in my research…
The implications are clear.NextGen insights firms will.
It’s a tall order.But, remember, the best way to predict the future is to make it.!Thank you