3. U.S. Existing Home SalesU.S. Existing Home Sales
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Millions
6.48M
transactions in
2006
3
4. U.S. Average Existing Home Sales PriceU.S. Average Existing Home Sales Price
4
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
$268,300 in 2006
5. SupplySupply
Number of homes on the market –Number of homes on the market –
U.S.U.S.
5
DateDate InventoryInventory
12/0412/04 2.22 million units2.22 million units
12/0512/05 2.85 million units2.85 million units
12/0612/06 3.51 million units3.51 million units
6. SupplySupply
Atlanta Market Conditions:Atlanta Market Conditions:
(Source: Atlanta Business Chronicle, Aug. 3, 2007)(Source: Atlanta Business Chronicle, Aug. 3, 2007)
6
SalesSales 2Q’062Q’06 2Q’072Q’07 % Diff% Diff
NewNew
HomesHomes
(North Atlanta(North Atlanta
Area)Area)
81698169 63156315 -23%-23%
Ga MLSGa MLS 24,38624,386 18,13318,133 -26%-26%
7. So, Check Your Attitude…So, Check Your Attitude…
Long-term successful agentsLong-term successful agents
shouldn’t care if the market isshouldn’t care if the market is
up or down, they should alwaysup or down, they should always
act like it’s down.act like it’s down.
7
8. Why?Why?
Because down marketsBecause down markets
alwaysalways forceforce you toyou to focusfocus
on what really matters!on what really matters!
8
9. Two GREAT Books by JimTwo GREAT Books by Jim
Collins:Collins:
““Built To Last”Built To Last”
““Good to Great”Good to Great”
9
10. From ‘From ‘Good To GreatGood To Great ’:’:
One of the first steps toOne of the first steps to
greatness is gaining a fullgreatness is gaining a full
understanding of -understanding of -
““THE BRUTAL TRUTH”.THE BRUTAL TRUTH”.
10
11. BRUTAL TRUTH:BRUTAL TRUTH:
Experts say that about 80%Experts say that about 80%
of the REAL marketing of aof the REAL marketing of a
house occurs when thehouse occurs when the
listing price is established.listing price is established.
11
12. BRUTAL TRUTH:BRUTAL TRUTH:
Experts estimate that aboutExperts estimate that about
60% of the real Buyers for a60% of the real Buyers for a
home will view it in the firsthome will view it in the first
30-45 days it is on the30-45 days it is on the
market.market.
12
13. BRUTAL TRUTH:BRUTAL TRUTH:
If it isn’t priced right from theIf it isn’t priced right from the
beginning, you are fightingbeginning, you are fighting
an uphill battle.an uphill battle.
13
14. BRUTAL TRUTH:BRUTAL TRUTH:
When supply exceeds demand:When supply exceeds demand:
Prices go downPrices go down
Buyers are more choosyBuyers are more choosy
Sellers are more irritableSellers are more irritable
Lenders and appraisers are moreLenders and appraisers are more
unpredictableunpredictable
The strong (smart) will surviveThe strong (smart) will survive
14
15. BRUTAL TRUTH:BRUTAL TRUTH: Most agents
resist doing anything about it.
Don’t know the “brutal truth”.
Afraid to have “fierce conversation”.
Don’t know how to prepare analysis.
Don’t want to upset clients/lose listing.
Lazy, naïve, “busy”, waiting, blah, blah.
They aren’t likely to make any money any
time soon.
15
16. BRUTAL TRUTH:BRUTAL TRUTH:
Even the big MEGA Teams needEven the big MEGA Teams need
a dose of the brutal trutha dose of the brutal truth
sometimes….sometimes….
A CASE STUDY – Tufts RealtyA CASE STUDY – Tufts Realty
Associates, Atlanta SugarloafAssociates, Atlanta Sugarloaf
16
17. Tufts Realty Associates:Tufts Realty Associates:
Most listings ever – YEA!!
Most Agents ever – YEA!!
New Marketing Manager ($60k)
New Marketing Plan ($ 5k/mo.)
Getting hammered by Clients
Where’s all the business??
17
18. Tufts Realty AssociatesTufts Realty Associates
Mid-Year 2007 Monthly Volume vs. GoalMid-Year 2007 Monthly Volume vs. Goal
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2007 Act
2006 Act
2007 Goal
19. Tufts Realty AssociatesTufts Realty Associates
Mid-Year 2007 Cumulative Volume vs. GoalMid-Year 2007 Cumulative Volume vs. Goal
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2007 Act
2007 Goal
20. A Call To Action:A Call To Action:
Tony DiCello Class in Orlando
Fierce conversation with Team
Stopped spending on marketing
Updated CMA’s – REALISTIC!!
Prepared a plan and scripts
Analysis (macro) of market
20
21. Analysis of Market:Analysis of Market:
Its easier than you think, 2-4 hours.
Select a relevant large market area
From MLS, collect data on number of
listings and number of solds over the
past several years (3-4 years is best).
Prepare a graph/pictorial view of the
market (Excel is all you need).
Make it simple and colorful – 1-2 pages
21
22. Action:Action:
At the middle of May:
35 Listings
Set a goal to do this for 7/month
Got 7 price reductions in late May,
another 7 in early June
Another 5 or so in July (because
we were getting busy!!)
22
23. An Easy “Fierce Conversation”:An Easy “Fierce Conversation”:
“Mr. Lister, I am here today to discuss the trends in
our market and share some factual data with you.
This is not necessarily data that you are going to
want to see, but as your Realtor, it is my
responsibility to share information that you NEED
TO KNOW in order for us to make the best
decision about SELLING your home as soon as
possible. Okay?”
23
24. Market Analysis of Supply and DemandMarket Analysis of Supply and Demand
25. An Easy “Fierce Conversation”:An Easy “Fierce Conversation”:
“Mr. Lister, studies show that about 50-60% of all REAL buyers
will see your home in the first 30-45 days it is on the market.
As you can see, there is a lot to look at right now. Buyers
have lots of choices and the media has told them that they
can get a good deal right now. If a home is not priced and
prepared to sell, they will quickly go elsewhere. What
choices do you see based upon this information …….”
25
26. Results:Results:
August: Closed $13.6 million, 19
transactions:
All listing sides had been from price
reduction action
About half were “fierce conversations”
about preparation and motivation
A few “fierce conversations” with Buyers
and their Agents
No commission reductions
26
29. Answer:Answer: Sitting in overpriced
listings waiting for them to
sell!!
3 of the sold listings produced
qualified Buyers that completed
immediate transactions
29
30. Tufts Realty AssociatesTufts Realty Associates
2007 Monthly Volume vs. Goal2007 Monthly Volume vs. Goal
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2007 Act
2006 Act
2007 Goal
31. Tufts Realty AssociatesTufts Realty Associates
Mid-Year 2007 Cumulative Volume vs. GoalMid-Year 2007 Cumulative Volume vs. Goal
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2007 Act
2007 Goal
32. A Call to Action for You:A Call to Action for You:
Set a numerical GOAL for getting prices adjusted.
Hang it on the wall in big letters.
Face the “brutal truth” about your market.
Face the “brutal truth” about your listings.
Prepare a factual analysis of market trends. Do a
rolling average to smooth the data.
Rehearse some scripts for the “fierce conversation”.
Have a revised CMA with you with recent and
realistic comps. Review it with another agent.
Be ready to stop “actively” marketing some listings.
Be ready to sell the others!!
32
33. JUST DO IT!!JUST DO IT!!
(It doesn’t hurt as much as not making any money.)(It doesn’t hurt as much as not making any money.)
33