Jason Mercer, Toronto Real Estate Board's Senior Manager of Market Analysis made a great presentation at our recent Toronto Condo Network Meeting.

1. TREB Housing Market Update
The Condo Network
October 30, 2009
Jason Mercer
Senior Manager of Market Analysis
Toronto Real Estate Board

2. Low Rates Have Had The Desired Effect
Bank of Canada
Target for the Overnight Lending Rate
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Source: Bank of Canada

3. Low Rates Have Had The Desired Effect
Average 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
22%
17%
12%
7%
2%
Source: Statistics Canada

4. GTA Housing Has Remained Affordable
TREB Affordability Indicator
Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest,
Property Taxes and Utilities on the Averaged Priced GTA Resale Home
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Data and Calculation; Statistics Canada

5. 2010 Sales Will Remain Strong
TREB MLS® Sales Projection: 2010
35,000 90-Per Cent Confidence Interval
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
50-Per Cent Confidence Interval
10,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

6. Condo Share of Sales is Increasing
24 Per cent
2008 Condo Apartment Share of MLS®
20 Per cent
1999 Condo Apartment Share of MLS®

7. Geography of Condo Sales

8. Geography of Condo Sales

9. New Listings Will Grow in 2010
TREB MLS® New Listings Projection: 2010
55,000 90-Per Cent Confidence Interval
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
50-Per Cent Confidence Interval
15,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

10. …Especially for Condos
Toronto CMA Condominium Apartment Completions
(12-Month Moving Average)
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Source: CMHC; TREB Adjustment

11. More Condo Completions in 2010
Toronto CMA Condominium Apartments
Under Construction
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Source: CMHC

12. More Balanced Market in 2010
TREB MLS® Sales-to-New Listings Ratio/Price Growth Projection
80% Sales-to-New Listings Ratio (Left Scale)
30%
Average Annual Price Growth
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio
Average Annual Price Growth (Right Scale)
70% 20%
60% 10%
50% 0%
40% -10%
30% -20%
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

13. Average Price Growth Will Be Positive in 2010
TREB MLS® Average Price Projection: 2010
475,000 90-Per Cent Confidence Interval
450,000
425,000
400,000
375,000 50-Per Cent Confidence Interval
350,000
325,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

14. Geography of Condo Price
Top 10 and Bottem 10 Average Condo Apartment Prices
N17
E11
W05
W18
E10
E17
E12
W04
W24
W10
W02
C01
E02
E01
C10
C03
N12
C02
C12
C09
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700
Thousands of Dollars

15. Geography of Condo Price
Top 10 and Bottem 10 Average Condo Apartment Prices
E02
W16
E12
E16
W21
W29
C09
C10
N07
N06
W22
C12
W18
N11
N18
E06
E14
C11
N08
W13
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

16. Condo Share of Total GTA Rental Stock
GTA Rental Apartment Stock Shares
Condominium
Rental, 12%
Purpose-Built
Source: CMHC Rental, 88%

17. Condo Rental Stock Up; Average Rent Down
32 Per Cent 51 Per Cent
Rental Transactions Rental Listings
May-Aug. 2009 May-Aug. 2009
One Per Cent
Rental Transactions
May-Aug. 2009

18. Wrap-Up
Leading Indicators: The Road to Recovery
 Historic interest rate cuts have provided stimulus.
Average GDP growth likely by end of 2010.
 Low rates initially prompted a recovery in big-
ticket consumer spending on homes and cars.
 Broader retail spending has improved as well,
pointing to stronger consumer confidence.
Still waiting on stronger US demand leading to
X increased exports, especially auto-related

19. Wrap-Up
GDP and Lagging Indicators: Sustainable Growth?
 June GDP release starting to confirm consensus
view that Q3 will experience economic growth
The unemployment rate will be volatile and could
? get worse before it gets better. Should start to
see job market recovery in second half of 2010.
If the Bank of Canada is correct about inflation,
? we should see orderly, incremental rate increases.
Value of Canadian dollar now more of a concern.
? Bank of Canada has “pushed forward” outlook.

20. Accessing TREB Economic Commentaries