Presentation delivered at NASIG, Arlington, VA on May 29, 2015.

1. Somewhere to run to, nowhere to hide
Stephen Rhind-Tutt, President
NASIG Meeting, Washington, DC.
May 2015

2. Overview
1. Some background on Alexander Street
2. A note on Technology Forecasting
3. What materials are we working with?
4. Who do we serve? What do they want?
5. What does it mean for the industry?
6. What does it mean for Alexander Street?

3. Some background on Alexander Street
• Publisher of primary sources, streaming video and music.
• 100+ people - offices in the US, the UK, China and Australia
• Recognized by E-content magazine as one of 100 companies
‘that matter most in the digital economy’

4. Some of our publications

5. The Landscape… challenges facing us

6. By 2020 the Web will contain…?
• 90% of published works prior to 1923
• Majority of works published to 2020
• > 100 billion pages of e-mail, phone logs, databases, blogs,
and Web sites (currently 45 billion)
• > 1 trillion Photos
(As of 1/13 Facebook had 240 Bn photos. 1.1 Bn uploaded over New Years alone)
• > 100 million facsimile pages of manuscripts
• > 30 million published audio files
• > 2.4 billion video files on YouTube (1 billion unique users
per month)

7. Exponentially more use…
• >1 billion unique users monthly
• >4 billion hours watched monthly
• 300 hours of video are uploaded every minute
• 50% annual growth rate
• 50% of usage is mobile
• In 2011, YouTube had more than 1 trillion views or around
140 views for every person on Earth
http://www.youtube.com/yt/press/statistics.html 5/22/2015 and 4/3/13

8. What does this have to do with academic
publishing?
Let’s wind back the clock…

9. NASIG Conference Topics over 25 years
1990: The Journal as a Provider of Community Services - John Cox
1993: The Transformation of Scholarly Communication and the Role
of the Library in the Age of Networked Information – Cliff Lynch
1994: Library Cultures in Conflict: Exploring New Roles for Librarians
Johann Van Reenen
1995: If Publishers Perished, Just What Would Be Lost?
Barbara Woodford
1999: It's Personal, It's Digital and It's Serial Ellen J. Waite-Franzen
2000: The Open Archives Initiative: Interoperable, Interdisciplinary
Author Self-Archiving Comes of Age - Richard E. Luce

10. $$$$$$

11. • Publishers won’t be needed because of OA and
because libraries will publish themselves
• Reference publishers will disappear because of
Wikipedia
• Libraries won’t be needed because content will be free
or because vendors go direct to faculty
• Teaching faculty won’t be needed because online
learning enables millions to be taught automatically
• Universities won’t be needed because it’s cheaper and
easier to educate online
Reoccurring nightmares…

12. June 2006

13. ‘All technologies evolve and die…’
• Can’t be networked
• Single User
• Won’t improve over time
• No ‘computer consumption’
• No functionality
• Not hyper linked
• Small
• Manual

14. • Many worried about their future
• Many holding on to the past
• Where are the sunlit uplands?
Conclusion

15. What do customers want?
Faculty - teach better
Students - learn faster, better, cheaper
Researchers - discover more, faster
Practitioners – better job performance

16. An evolution, not a revolution!
Fading Growing
Typesetting
Printing
Print monograph
Print directory
Public domain reprints
Simple, one database search
Non-traditional content
Linking
Licensing
Open Access
Process integration
Unified search software
Workflow tools
Warehousing
Collaboration
Asset management
Commissioning
Editorial
Quality
Selection
Metrics & Measurement

17. Run up the value!
Fading Growing
Typesetting
Printing
Print monograph
Print directory
Public domain reprints
Simple, one database search
Non-traditional content
Linking
Licensing
Open Access
Process integration
Unified search software
Workflow tools
Warehousing
Collaboration
Asset management
Commissioning
Editorial
Quality
Selection
Metrics & Measurement

18. Somewhere to run to…
After Data, Information, Knowledge, and Wisdom, Gene Bellinger, Durval Castro,
Anthony Mills. http://www.systems-thinking.org/
Who, What, When, Where?
Therefore
Why?

19. You can project the future…
…and not just by guessing

20. Example: Projections from 1900
• ‘Quadricycles’, ‘Phaetons’, ‘Horseless Carriages’, ‘Autocars’ ?
• Electric, Hydrogen or Gasoline ? (weight to power ratio)
• Wood, Steel, or combination ? (weight to safety)
• Custom or mass produced ?
• Faster? Will UK laws continue to restrict speed to 5 mph?
• Easier or harder to drive?
• Cheaper or more expensive?
(Source: Various Articles in The Living Age, 1904)

21. By 1920
• Motor cars
• Horsepower to weight ratio - Gasoline and clearly going to
improve in future
• Materials – Steel
• Production line – Mass produced
• Standard easy-to-use pedal/brake system
• Speed: 45 – 60 mph
• Costs – Model T cost $300

22. Will the car of the future be…
• Networked?
• Self-driving?
• Sharable?
• Safer?
• Greener?

23. OCLC Environmental Scan from 2003!

24. Leading indicators
Consumer
Leader
Academic
Version
# of Years
Delay
Simple search vs.
Boolean search
Google (2000) Slow evolution Multiple
Social Networking Facebook (2004) Mendeley (2007)
LibGuides (2007)
3
Audio on Web Napster (1999) Classical.com
Library version
(2001)
2
Video on Web YouTube (2004) ASP (2006) 2
Mobile Apps Apple (2008) Slow evolution Multiple
SaaS Multiple (2001) Slow evolution Multiple

25. The future is clear enough to act on…
• Is Open Access going to grow or shrink?
• Will machine aided indexing get better or worse over the next 5 years?
• Will tomorrow’s students be more or less media centric?
• Will Wikipedia become better or worse?
• Is the cost of space and storage going to increase or decrease?
• Will mobile devices become standard in education?
• Is education going to get more expensive?
• Will distance learning grow or decrease in the future?
….and what does that mean for our organizations.

26. Understand the medium
Don’t fight it, exploit its potential

27. “You must consult the laws of nature…you say “What
do you want brick?” and the brick says to you “I like an
arch” and you say to brick “Look, I want one too, but
arches are expensive…” Brick says “I like an arch”…
“Honor the material you use”
Louis Kahn (1979)
The nature of virtual space…

28. • Steel – High cost to create, strong, easy to stamp
shapes, medium weight…
• Wood – Low cost to create, moderately strong,
needs to be crafted, light weight…
• Glass – Medium cost to create, weak, easy to craft,
transparent…
• The Web - ?
Understanding the medium

29. Nature of electronic publications
• Atomic - enormously pliable
• Everything interconnected with links
• Links more important than the destination
Page Page Page
Page
Datum Page Article
Video Page

30. • Speeds research and learning
• Fewer interfaces to learn and navigate
• Reduces duplication
• Increases comprehensiveness
• Allows unified annotation
• Lowers costs
• Libraries don’t purchase same content twice
• Publishers don’t need to license and re-sell ubiquitous content
• Obviates need for updates
• Maximizes usage
• Content can be part of every search
• Increases functionality
• Allows machine manipulation of data
• Linkages not just between content but between apps
Linking

31. Understanding the medium
0111010011010000101101101000101110100010001110101
0101010101010111110101010101011111010111001000111
Binary
Machine Code
Assembly Code
Programming
languages
Java, C, Python,
VB, etc…

32. Nature of electronic publications
• Pliability -> Can add ever more functionality
• Unlimited size -> Very large databases
• Marginal delivery cost -> Open Access

33. Electronic Journals vs. books…
Electronic Journals Books E-Books
Cost/item/person > 0.002 ¢ > $20 -
Size Unlimited 100-1000 Pages -
Accessibility Site Person at a
time
(+)
Organization Integrated Isolated (+)
Searchability 20 entry points 2 entry points (+)
Division Atomic + Linear Linear -
Currency Daily updates > Quarterly -
Delivery speed Instant > Day ? Instant
Interaction ? None -
Process integration ? None -

34. Social Networks make most use of the medium...
Electronic Journals Open Network Sites
Cost/item/person 0.002 ¢ Free
Size Unlimited Unlimited
Accessibility Site Universal
Primary Organization Single Static Multiple, Dynamic
Searchability 20 entry points Multiple entry points
Division Atomic + Linear Atomic
Currency Daily updates Minute by minute
Delivery speed Instant Instant
Interaction/community ? Multiple
Process integration ? Multiple

35. Fighting against the medium?
Against the
medium
With the medium
DRM Early E-books, films Free content
One-check-out models Netlibrary (1995) Ebrary
Unexposed metadata Anon. Multiple
Gated gardens AOL (1993) Google (2000)
Local hosting CD-ROM (1998) Cloud Computing
Directory vs. search Yahoo Google (2000)

36. Steady predictable improvement…
Catalogs, Abstract and Indexing databases
Stock & News
Full-Text Journals
Full-Text Books
Audio
Video
FT Court Cases
1966 1973 1984 1990 1997 2000 2005
Directories

37. Where we’re headed
After Data, Information, Knowledge, and Wisdom, Gene Bellinger, Durval Castro,
Anthony Mills. http://www.systems-thinking.org/
Who, What, When, Where?
Therefore
Why?

38. Somewhere to run to
(In the long run customers get what they want…)

39. An evolution, not a revolution!
Fading Growing
Typesetting
Printing
Print monograph
Print directory
Public domain reprints
Simple, one database search
Non-traditional content
Linking
Licensing
Open Access
Process integration
Unified search software
Workflow tools
Warehousing
Collaboration
Asset management
Commissioning
Editorial
Quality
Selection
Metrics & Measurement

41. The trends…
• Non traditional content – audio, video, data sets
• Connectivity - linking
• Open Access
• Workflow
• Metrics & Measurements
• Collaboration
• Text mining
• Reducing cost of education
• Reducing ‘wastage’ in education

42. Example: Non-traditional content

43. http://www.oclc.org/content/dam/research/publications/library/2014/oclcresearch-collection-directions-preprint-2014.pdf

45. 15 times faster to read than to watch…
30 minutes of news
12 double spaced pages
5 minutes to read in depth
2 minutes to scan read

46. Transformation
• See history as it happened
• View 3,000+ leading academics
• 3,000+ witnesses to history
• Explanations and enthusiasm
• Accessible in seconds
Once you get on the other side you can see more clearly…

47. Is mobile going to become more popular?
 We currently have
Send to Mobile on all
video and audio
across the platform.
 Over past 6 months, c.
5% of visits came from
a mobile device.
 New look and feel will
be 'responsive' to
accommodate for
smaller screens.

48. Example: Linking

49. Example: Linking - Be of the web
Music
Newspapers
Websites
Monographs
Primary Works
Journals

50. Inbound linking

51. • Unified, multi-database, multidiscipline cross-search
• Preserving and opening controlled vocabularies
• Single Open API for third-party access
Start with all ASP content on one platform…

52. Mobile
Embeds
Discovery
Services
MARC
Inbound links
Search
Engines
RDF ?

53. Philosophical issues
• Many don’t want to link to ‘for fee’ objects
• Charge for traffic generated or to generate traffic?
• Building links is expensive. Who pays?
• When things change who’s responsible?
• Vested interests
Technical
• Authentication
• Permissions
• Automated tools lacking
Challenges to building links

54. Outbound links

55. • Higher value links
• Semantic indexing and keyword searching
of more than 3,000 oral history collections
• Represents the personal histories of some
300,000 people
• Value:
– Context
– Selection
– Search power
– Licensed material
– Integration
Early Example - Oral History Online

56. Browsing value…

57. Search Power

58. Context for results

59. Example: Open Access

60. The customer wants…
Breadth (everything relevant)
Depth
(in as much detail as possible)
Concepts
Articles
Data Sets
Books
Definitions, Encyclopedia Entries
Citations and References
Grey
Literature
Primary
Materials
Video

61. In music…
Breadth (everything relevant)
Depth
(in as much detail as possible)
12 Controlled Vocabularies
Journal
Articles
User Playlists
Reference
Definitions, Encyclopedia Entries
Links, Citations and References
Listening Services Scores Video
User Contributed Recordings

62. In music
Breadth (everything relevant)
Depth
(in as much detail as possible)
12 Controlled Vocabularies
Journal
Articles
150k User Created
Playlists
Reference
Definitions, Encyclopedia Entries
Links, Citations and References
Listening Services Scores Video
User Contributed Recordings

63. Presented by Viktor Henning, Fiesole Conference, 2013
http://www.casalini.it/retreat/2013_docs/5_Henning.pdf

68. Example: Workflow & Process

69. Sian Harris
Completing the information cycle, Research Information: June/July 2013,
Read about
Discoveries
Plan
Experiments
Conduct
Experiments
Analyze
Results
Share
Results
Publish
Discoveries

73. Summary
• Change in our field is slower than you think
• The trends have been the same for a long time
• They’re led by external related industries
• You can project where we’re headed
• There are lots of opportunities
• But they require change…

74. Hold onto the old…

75. Or Change
‘We help scientists make new discoveries…by combining
high-quality content and data with analytics and
technology”
“[Our strategy is…]must have information, media neutral
databases…sophisticated indexing, cross-referencing and
retrieving capabilities”
Elsevier Company Report: 2014
Elsevier Company Report: 1995

76. The first publishing medium is still
around…and going strong
Cuneiform Tablet
3500 BCE
Stone Tablet
AD 2015

77. www.alexanderstreet.com
openmusiclibrary.org