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Top 1 Digital PreDictions
    1
          for 201
                1
    Millward Brown’s Global Futures Group identifies
       the hottest digital trends for the new year
1
BranDs will juggle their
    Presence in the


  splinternet
                                               1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201
                                                1       1:    1                           1




                           The internet will continue to splinter into a two-tier model of the public open
                           Web and semi-walled gardens (social networks like Facebook, Diaspora,
                           pip.io and Web sites that are only accessible by members or private groups).
                           application ‘gardens’ are popular because they allow marketers to control
                           and simplify consumer interactions. However, brands will increasingly need to
                           develop and tend multiple gardens, often building different applications for
                           specific platforms, such as Facebook and the iphone, to ensure they are where
                           their market wants to encounter them.


                           When deciding what to plant in which garden, brands must decide whether
                           to have an integrated or discrete strategy. should there be different offers on
                           Twitter or Facebook than on the brand Web site? Despite the immediacy of
                           Twitter and the opportunity of interaction in Facebook, the open Web — brand
                           Web sites and other general Web sites — is still relevant for more in-depth
                           brand encounters.


                           Despite the growth of these gardens, not everyone owns an iphone or likes
                           Facebook, and with brands such as BlackBerry opposing this world view, it’s
                           too early to yet write an epitaph for the open Web.


                           We predict that brands will struggle in the short term, but experience and
                           research will gradually help marketers pull the pieces of the puzzle together.
                           Millward Brown and Dynamic logic are conducting ever more research into
                           the role and value of apps and fan pages, and how these work best alongside
                           ad campaigns and brand sites. This learning will gradually help brands more
                           confidently manage the various gardens of the Web.
2
    evolution of


online shopping                                1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201
                                                1       1:    1                           1

 as augmenteD reality
 technologies BriDge
   intangiBility gaP




                        Despite fears around disclosure of personal information, online shopping will
                        continue to grow strongly in 201 thanks to its unmatched convenience and
                                                       1
                        efficiency. Many countries will follow the Us and china in their enthusiastic
                        uptake of collective buying services like Groupon. Fuelled by their love of a
                        bargain, there are more than 500 of these sites in china. The fervor of online
                        shopping in china has also given rise to many other e-commerce models:
                        straightforward transactional, reverse auction, Dutch auction (www.360buy.
                        com) and collective buying on bulletin boards, called “Tuan Gou.” For now,
                        the king of the chinese e-commerce sector is Taobao, which is predicted to
                        generate $90 billion in transactional revenues next year (more than amazon).
                        While the chinese love a bargain, an added attraction is the relative dearth of
                        supply at traditional brick-and-mortar stores, especially in smaller cities.


                        in the UK, mobile apps will be particularly popular, while in india, use of online
                        travel ticket purchasing that helps consumers bypass long queues at stations
                        is expected to grow.


                        one remaining drawback of online shopping is that consumers can’t touch or
                        feel a product. in 201 we expect brands to use innovative new technologies
                                             1
                        including augmented reality to help bridge this “intangibility gap” and keep the
                        shopping process fresh and exciting. The virtual fitting room from Fashionista
                        is a great example of a practical tool which also incorporates a social media
                        element so that Web users can start to enjoy window shopping with friends.
3
online display
exPloDes out of its Box
                                               1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201
                                                1       1:    1                           1




                          Marketers will increasingly attempt to deliver branding messages within the ad
                          itself using expandable formats and interactive features, which often replicate
                          part of the experience of a microsite or social media page. in line with this
                          objective, display formats are constantly transforming and many new formats
                          are emerging. Here are a few we think are likely to catch on more widely in
                          201
                            1:


                          Double teaming. Media planners are finding neat ways to combine
                          multiple formats on the same page. Background wallpaper ads can enhance
                          the impact of regular banners with the same look and feel. These combinations
                          can also be interactive, such as the Tipp-ex hunter shoots the bear ad where
                          the video interacts with the display ad on the page.


                          Slide-up formats use small but intriguing imagery to capture attention. once
                          the viewer rolls over the ad it then expands into an overlay or full-page ad that
                          can include video.


                          Social titbits. Marketers seeking to integrate banners with their social media
                          campaigns are increasingly incorporating a taster of live social activity, such as
                          their Twitter feed. among other display predictions, Google recently claimed
                          that 75 percent of all ads will be social in nature by 2015.
4 Viral Video
no longer an afterthought
                                                 1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201
                                                  1       1:    1                           1




                            Viral potential is no longer considered a nice-to-have, but more frequently
                            becoming a key success criteria for any new communications idea. if advertisers
                            don’t believe their ideas will ‘travel’, they are less likely to be developed in the
                            first place. at Millward Brown this is resulting in more viral-potential research,
                            not just with finished film videos, but also during early-stage creative idea
                            development.


                            Viral planning is an increasingly important element of digital campaign
                            planning. one way that planners can help their videos to go viral is to
                            promote them in a viral environment. Our new YouTube research shows that
                            paid online promotion generates a ‘free’ incremental viral bonus over and
                            above the paid views.


                            planners are also benefiting from more readily available viral measurement,
                            which means they can track progress in real-time, and make media
                            adjustments accordingly. in 201 sophisticated new services such as Kantar
                                                          1,
                            Video will be used more often, allowing marketers to track progress of both
                            viral and paid video in real-time and make media adjustments accordingly.


                            However, while higher traffic volumes and better measurement tools are
                            making life easier, the creative challenge could get ever harder as each new
                            viral hit raises the bar of consumer expectation. advertisers may need to be
                            more distinctive than ever if they want to be 201 “old spice” success story.
                                                                            1’s
5
 more “maDe for weB”


online display
                                           1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201
                                            1       1:    1                           1



      content




                       online video advertising spend is still growing and expected to grow further.
                       some forecasters are predicting global growth of over 50 percent in the
                       coming years, since it is still a relatively new and emerging medium in some
                       developing Web markets. in the Us, eMarketer is predicting that online video
                       ad spending will jump from $ billion in 2010 to $2.1 billion in 201
                                                   1.5                                   1.


                       Growth is partly being driven by brands becoming smarter in how they use
                       online video paired with display. Growth is also likely to be driven by ever more
                       mobile video consumption, via smartphones and tablet devices. High-quality
                       mobile video viewing environments, such as the TeD ipad app, could become
                       very desirable video advertising locations.


                       perhaps the most interesting development in 201 will be the roll out of Google’s
                                                                     1
                       TrueView advertising format, which puts users in control and allows them to
                       skip ads they don’t find relevant. if they are successful in finding a format that
                       both users and advertisers (who only pay for viewed ads) can accept, this may
                       finally enable YouTube to take full advantage of their huge viewing figures, and
                       make inroads into Hulu’s significant lead in online video advertising revenues.


                       Recent research from Dynamic Logic has compared made-for-Web video
                       content to repurposed TV ads and found that made-for-Web video is better
                       for persuasion, while repurposed TV ads worked well in generating awareness
                       for brands. We hope this will lead to more considered decisions about online
                       video creative in 201
                                           1.
6
 more


Mobile
                                1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201
                                 1       1:    1                           1



eyeBalls




           Marketers will take advantage of the improved performance capabilities of
           mobile devices that mean more people are online, more of the time, and allow
           for better mobile ad experiences.


           There will be a stronger demand for the higher-end phones — iDc
           predicts the smartphone market will grow by 24.5 percent during 201 nokia
                                                                             1.
           remains the number one smartphone vendor, but their symbian operating
           system is facing considerable competition from android. apple, with its
           continued focused on innovation, non-exclusivity with carriers, and a
           passionate customer base, will open up a larger gap on riM’s BlackBerry.


           Mobility will be further increased by devices such as e-readers and tablets.
           The ipad adoption rate has already surpassed the iphone at its launch in 2007
           and sales are expected to reach 1 million in 201 The expansion of the market
                                           1              1.
           with other tablets, including the samsung Galaxy Tab, BlackBerry playbook
           and other tablets will help expand the market, especially for business use. at a
           lower price point, e-readers like the Kindle will also remain popular.


           Mobile advertising budgets will increase significantly over 2010 and the brand
           impact achieved from mobile will continue to outperform online through 201
                                                                                    1.
7
BranDs finD their Places with


   Geo-location
                                                 1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201
                                                  1       1:    1                           1




                            Geo-location services have already expanded from last year, thanks to the
                            growing number of consumer services. Today, geo-location is all about ‘checking in’,
                            but 201 will provide a more rewarding experience once the user has checked
                                  1
                            in. We expect to see more detailed and dynamic information than just tips
                            and a list of who else has checked in. it also seems likely that there will be a
                            significant development in “check-out” features (e.g. suggested activities/venues
                            of where to go next).


                            We also expect to see growth in check-in rewards. This will significantly
                            increase the size of the deals and discounts available to consumers. apps such
                            as Shopkick automatically award points/promotions upon entering a store.
                            shopkick is already live in stores like BestBuy, Macy’s, and american eagle
                            outfitters.


                            The arrival of Facebook Places will be helpful for brands, for example to
                            identify whether they should have a greater retail presence in a different location.
                            More brands will use location as an app feature e.g. tailoring their services
                            based on location as Flixter does; as a communication platform e.g. MTV’s Get
                            yourself tested campaign on foursquare; as the key to a deal via Facebook’s
                            Deals application and as a connection with loyalty card data — Tasti D-Lite was
                            one of the first brands to do this via foursquare.
8   search:
increasing Personal, moBile
       anD imPactful.
                                                   1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201
                                                    1       1:    1                           1




                              consumers will trade privacy for relevance. links with social media profiles,
                              search history and behavioral segmentation allow greater search relevance
                              for users prepared to share this information with search engine providers.
                              although Google’s social search hasn’t really taken off in 2010, Bing’s recently
                              announced Facebook tie-up might have greater impact in 201 This could also
                                                                                       1.
                              lead to a similar Twitter deal for either Bing or Google in the future. eventually,
                              brands with strong social media campaigns may start to see the benefits of this
                              feeding through into an improved search standing.


                              Mobile search will make further gains as developers take full advantage of the
                              unprecedented breadth of information available and consumers realise the
                              benefit of searching via applications such as Google Maps. The competition for
                              placement in these geographic search results is something that retailers and
                              small local brands look set to gain most from.


                              Mobile apps offer opportunities for companies to design very niche, vertical
                              search interfaces that circumvent the search giants. Orange Wednesdays is a
                              recent cinema listings example.


                              smart technologies such as picture-based search (Google Goggles), voice
                              search (part of the android api) and barcode scanning apps will increasingly
                              link mobile offline experiences with online information sources.


                              search results will become more visually impactful and ever more similar to
                              display. an example of this evolution is Bing’s “more info” roll-over previews.
                              Google’s recently launched “instant” results will also increase the overall number
                              of impressions served, particularly for big brands.
9
Gaming
on the move
                                  1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201
                                   1       1:    1                           1




              The recent launches of Sony’s Move and Microsoft’s Kinect have provided
              a new lease of life for playstation and Xbox consoles, and will drive further
              innovation in game design during 201
                                                 1.


              Meanwhile, casual gaming, driven strongly by the capabilities of apple’s iphone
              and ipod touch, is likely to grow further as these gamers continue to feed their
              app-snacking habits, and developers take full advantage of the larger ipad
              interface.


              social games remain very popular, reflected in the fact that the largest
              social gaming company, Zynga now has a greater stock market value than
              Electronic Arts. Growth in the use of social games is likely, assuming new titles
              can build on the success of FarmVille and Mafia Wars.


              our only concern is that the sociability of an individual gamer is a finite
              resource. after the initial flurry of excitement around tweeting scores or posting
              game updates, this can quickly become old. Unless a game integrates a real
              reason for people to be sociable, they may start to reserve their sociability for
              online activities where it’s more meaningful.


              research from Dynamic logic has revealed that brands can benefit from
              in-game branding where it’s seen to be relevant, and we predict this to be
              a growth area in 201 We hope to see more branded games with a clear
                                 1.
              purpose, such as the Reckitt Benckiser poweRBrands app on Facebook,
              which allows potential employees to understand the reckitt Benckiser
              approach to marketing.
10
social graphs
  will make targeting
    more relevant
                                              1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201
                                               1       1:    1                           1




                        We know relevant social integration will delight consumers, since a recent
                        Firefly Millward Brown study has revealed that people are looking for
                        brands in social media to be more relevant to their needs. Facebook, who
                        coined the term “social graph” is set to develop even more uses for it, such as
                        integration with Amazon and other sites that allow greater customization and
                        relevance. other brands are following suit. Apple’s Ping builds a social
                        networking layer around your iTunes account. The much-anticipated social
                        platform from Google will follow shortly in some form or another.


                        people will be involved in the biggest social network (Facebook) because other
                        people are, but increasingly they will be more engaged in other niche networks
                        that appeal to their particular interests. Dynamic logic’s adreaction study
                        has shown that consumers continue to find utility in having multiple, separate
                        social identities (e.g. Facebook, linked in and Twitter). We think 201 will end up
                                                                                             1
                        being the year of smaller niche interest or activity-based networks, many of
                        which still take advantage of the Facebook social graph but engage users
                        differently (e.g. foursquare, runKeeper).


                        Facebook provides excellent targeting opportunities for brands because of its
                        scale but, to really be effective, sophisticated algorithms are needed to make
                        sense of the complex relationships between people. Without very sophisticated
                        algorithms that target content effectively, it’s possible that the initial concept of
                        the social graph could cave in on itself.
1
1  the Battle for


online privacy
   will intensify
                                        1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201
                                         1       1:    1                           1




                    Marketers will make progress on the development of online transparency
                    frameworks as consumers are increasingly empowered to look under the
                    hood. They will avoid regulatory measures to protect online privacy by
                    enabling users to manage their own profiles and by being clearer about their data
                    models. examples of these measures include a self-regulatory program that
                    has been launched by the online advertising industry in the Us where every
                    online ad can have an icon which will open up to reveal profile settings. Despite
                    these efforts, battle continues between regulators and the industry about the
                    scope of personal information that forms the building blocks of online identity.


                    Trust will become a quantifiable measure as consumers move to ring fence
                    data use. Managing user identities and the sharing of the same with approved
                    commercial partners will become a viable business model. social media,
                    portals, search engines and telecommunication companies will battle to be the
                    trusted launch platform for “connected everywhere” consumers.
about Millward                         1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201
                                        1       1:    1                           1

Brown’s Futures
    Group

                  Millward Brown’s Futures Group is a global knowledge-sharing forum of
                  Millward Brown and Dynamic logic staff, which focuses on the digital trends
                  that will have a significant impact in the next three years.


                  special thanks to the following for their contributions to this document:


                  christopher Bian                 chris Maier
                  Bhomik chandna                   rajith nair
                  laurent Dumouchel                Jennifer okula
                  Tom ewing                        George pappachen
                  christina Goodman                Michal przadka
                  Mark Henning                     ali rana
                  Juan Manuel Hernandez            Felipe ramirez
                  Miquet Humphryes                 Duncan southgate
                  alex Johnson                     sherri stevens
                  andy lees                        cain Wang
Top 11 tendencias digitales para 2011 (Millward Brown -Dynamic Logic)

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Top 11 tendencias digitales para 2011 (Millward Brown -Dynamic Logic)

  • 1. Top 1 Digital PreDictions 1 for 201 1 Millward Brown’s Global Futures Group identifies the hottest digital trends for the new year
  • 2. 1 BranDs will juggle their Presence in the splinternet 1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201 1 1: 1 1 The internet will continue to splinter into a two-tier model of the public open Web and semi-walled gardens (social networks like Facebook, Diaspora, pip.io and Web sites that are only accessible by members or private groups). application ‘gardens’ are popular because they allow marketers to control and simplify consumer interactions. However, brands will increasingly need to develop and tend multiple gardens, often building different applications for specific platforms, such as Facebook and the iphone, to ensure they are where their market wants to encounter them. When deciding what to plant in which garden, brands must decide whether to have an integrated or discrete strategy. should there be different offers on Twitter or Facebook than on the brand Web site? Despite the immediacy of Twitter and the opportunity of interaction in Facebook, the open Web — brand Web sites and other general Web sites — is still relevant for more in-depth brand encounters. Despite the growth of these gardens, not everyone owns an iphone or likes Facebook, and with brands such as BlackBerry opposing this world view, it’s too early to yet write an epitaph for the open Web. We predict that brands will struggle in the short term, but experience and research will gradually help marketers pull the pieces of the puzzle together. Millward Brown and Dynamic logic are conducting ever more research into the role and value of apps and fan pages, and how these work best alongside ad campaigns and brand sites. This learning will gradually help brands more confidently manage the various gardens of the Web.
  • 3. 2 evolution of online shopping 1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201 1 1: 1 1 as augmenteD reality technologies BriDge intangiBility gaP Despite fears around disclosure of personal information, online shopping will continue to grow strongly in 201 thanks to its unmatched convenience and 1 efficiency. Many countries will follow the Us and china in their enthusiastic uptake of collective buying services like Groupon. Fuelled by their love of a bargain, there are more than 500 of these sites in china. The fervor of online shopping in china has also given rise to many other e-commerce models: straightforward transactional, reverse auction, Dutch auction (www.360buy. com) and collective buying on bulletin boards, called “Tuan Gou.” For now, the king of the chinese e-commerce sector is Taobao, which is predicted to generate $90 billion in transactional revenues next year (more than amazon). While the chinese love a bargain, an added attraction is the relative dearth of supply at traditional brick-and-mortar stores, especially in smaller cities. in the UK, mobile apps will be particularly popular, while in india, use of online travel ticket purchasing that helps consumers bypass long queues at stations is expected to grow. one remaining drawback of online shopping is that consumers can’t touch or feel a product. in 201 we expect brands to use innovative new technologies 1 including augmented reality to help bridge this “intangibility gap” and keep the shopping process fresh and exciting. The virtual fitting room from Fashionista is a great example of a practical tool which also incorporates a social media element so that Web users can start to enjoy window shopping with friends.
  • 4. 3 online display exPloDes out of its Box 1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201 1 1: 1 1 Marketers will increasingly attempt to deliver branding messages within the ad itself using expandable formats and interactive features, which often replicate part of the experience of a microsite or social media page. in line with this objective, display formats are constantly transforming and many new formats are emerging. Here are a few we think are likely to catch on more widely in 201 1: Double teaming. Media planners are finding neat ways to combine multiple formats on the same page. Background wallpaper ads can enhance the impact of regular banners with the same look and feel. These combinations can also be interactive, such as the Tipp-ex hunter shoots the bear ad where the video interacts with the display ad on the page. Slide-up formats use small but intriguing imagery to capture attention. once the viewer rolls over the ad it then expands into an overlay or full-page ad that can include video. Social titbits. Marketers seeking to integrate banners with their social media campaigns are increasingly incorporating a taster of live social activity, such as their Twitter feed. among other display predictions, Google recently claimed that 75 percent of all ads will be social in nature by 2015.
  • 5. 4 Viral Video no longer an afterthought 1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201 1 1: 1 1 Viral potential is no longer considered a nice-to-have, but more frequently becoming a key success criteria for any new communications idea. if advertisers don’t believe their ideas will ‘travel’, they are less likely to be developed in the first place. at Millward Brown this is resulting in more viral-potential research, not just with finished film videos, but also during early-stage creative idea development. Viral planning is an increasingly important element of digital campaign planning. one way that planners can help their videos to go viral is to promote them in a viral environment. Our new YouTube research shows that paid online promotion generates a ‘free’ incremental viral bonus over and above the paid views. planners are also benefiting from more readily available viral measurement, which means they can track progress in real-time, and make media adjustments accordingly. in 201 sophisticated new services such as Kantar 1, Video will be used more often, allowing marketers to track progress of both viral and paid video in real-time and make media adjustments accordingly. However, while higher traffic volumes and better measurement tools are making life easier, the creative challenge could get ever harder as each new viral hit raises the bar of consumer expectation. advertisers may need to be more distinctive than ever if they want to be 201 “old spice” success story. 1’s
  • 6. 5 more “maDe for weB” online display 1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201 1 1: 1 1 content online video advertising spend is still growing and expected to grow further. some forecasters are predicting global growth of over 50 percent in the coming years, since it is still a relatively new and emerging medium in some developing Web markets. in the Us, eMarketer is predicting that online video ad spending will jump from $ billion in 2010 to $2.1 billion in 201 1.5 1. Growth is partly being driven by brands becoming smarter in how they use online video paired with display. Growth is also likely to be driven by ever more mobile video consumption, via smartphones and tablet devices. High-quality mobile video viewing environments, such as the TeD ipad app, could become very desirable video advertising locations. perhaps the most interesting development in 201 will be the roll out of Google’s 1 TrueView advertising format, which puts users in control and allows them to skip ads they don’t find relevant. if they are successful in finding a format that both users and advertisers (who only pay for viewed ads) can accept, this may finally enable YouTube to take full advantage of their huge viewing figures, and make inroads into Hulu’s significant lead in online video advertising revenues. Recent research from Dynamic Logic has compared made-for-Web video content to repurposed TV ads and found that made-for-Web video is better for persuasion, while repurposed TV ads worked well in generating awareness for brands. We hope this will lead to more considered decisions about online video creative in 201 1.
  • 7. 6 more Mobile 1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201 1 1: 1 1 eyeBalls Marketers will take advantage of the improved performance capabilities of mobile devices that mean more people are online, more of the time, and allow for better mobile ad experiences. There will be a stronger demand for the higher-end phones — iDc predicts the smartphone market will grow by 24.5 percent during 201 nokia 1. remains the number one smartphone vendor, but their symbian operating system is facing considerable competition from android. apple, with its continued focused on innovation, non-exclusivity with carriers, and a passionate customer base, will open up a larger gap on riM’s BlackBerry. Mobility will be further increased by devices such as e-readers and tablets. The ipad adoption rate has already surpassed the iphone at its launch in 2007 and sales are expected to reach 1 million in 201 The expansion of the market 1 1. with other tablets, including the samsung Galaxy Tab, BlackBerry playbook and other tablets will help expand the market, especially for business use. at a lower price point, e-readers like the Kindle will also remain popular. Mobile advertising budgets will increase significantly over 2010 and the brand impact achieved from mobile will continue to outperform online through 201 1.
  • 8. 7 BranDs finD their Places with Geo-location 1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201 1 1: 1 1 Geo-location services have already expanded from last year, thanks to the growing number of consumer services. Today, geo-location is all about ‘checking in’, but 201 will provide a more rewarding experience once the user has checked 1 in. We expect to see more detailed and dynamic information than just tips and a list of who else has checked in. it also seems likely that there will be a significant development in “check-out” features (e.g. suggested activities/venues of where to go next). We also expect to see growth in check-in rewards. This will significantly increase the size of the deals and discounts available to consumers. apps such as Shopkick automatically award points/promotions upon entering a store. shopkick is already live in stores like BestBuy, Macy’s, and american eagle outfitters. The arrival of Facebook Places will be helpful for brands, for example to identify whether they should have a greater retail presence in a different location. More brands will use location as an app feature e.g. tailoring their services based on location as Flixter does; as a communication platform e.g. MTV’s Get yourself tested campaign on foursquare; as the key to a deal via Facebook’s Deals application and as a connection with loyalty card data — Tasti D-Lite was one of the first brands to do this via foursquare.
  • 9. 8 search: increasing Personal, moBile anD imPactful. 1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201 1 1: 1 1 consumers will trade privacy for relevance. links with social media profiles, search history and behavioral segmentation allow greater search relevance for users prepared to share this information with search engine providers. although Google’s social search hasn’t really taken off in 2010, Bing’s recently announced Facebook tie-up might have greater impact in 201 This could also 1. lead to a similar Twitter deal for either Bing or Google in the future. eventually, brands with strong social media campaigns may start to see the benefits of this feeding through into an improved search standing. Mobile search will make further gains as developers take full advantage of the unprecedented breadth of information available and consumers realise the benefit of searching via applications such as Google Maps. The competition for placement in these geographic search results is something that retailers and small local brands look set to gain most from. Mobile apps offer opportunities for companies to design very niche, vertical search interfaces that circumvent the search giants. Orange Wednesdays is a recent cinema listings example. smart technologies such as picture-based search (Google Goggles), voice search (part of the android api) and barcode scanning apps will increasingly link mobile offline experiences with online information sources. search results will become more visually impactful and ever more similar to display. an example of this evolution is Bing’s “more info” roll-over previews. Google’s recently launched “instant” results will also increase the overall number of impressions served, particularly for big brands.
  • 10. 9 Gaming on the move 1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201 1 1: 1 1 The recent launches of Sony’s Move and Microsoft’s Kinect have provided a new lease of life for playstation and Xbox consoles, and will drive further innovation in game design during 201 1. Meanwhile, casual gaming, driven strongly by the capabilities of apple’s iphone and ipod touch, is likely to grow further as these gamers continue to feed their app-snacking habits, and developers take full advantage of the larger ipad interface. social games remain very popular, reflected in the fact that the largest social gaming company, Zynga now has a greater stock market value than Electronic Arts. Growth in the use of social games is likely, assuming new titles can build on the success of FarmVille and Mafia Wars. our only concern is that the sociability of an individual gamer is a finite resource. after the initial flurry of excitement around tweeting scores or posting game updates, this can quickly become old. Unless a game integrates a real reason for people to be sociable, they may start to reserve their sociability for online activities where it’s more meaningful. research from Dynamic logic has revealed that brands can benefit from in-game branding where it’s seen to be relevant, and we predict this to be a growth area in 201 We hope to see more branded games with a clear 1. purpose, such as the Reckitt Benckiser poweRBrands app on Facebook, which allows potential employees to understand the reckitt Benckiser approach to marketing.
  • 11. 10 social graphs will make targeting more relevant 1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201 1 1: 1 1 We know relevant social integration will delight consumers, since a recent Firefly Millward Brown study has revealed that people are looking for brands in social media to be more relevant to their needs. Facebook, who coined the term “social graph” is set to develop even more uses for it, such as integration with Amazon and other sites that allow greater customization and relevance. other brands are following suit. Apple’s Ping builds a social networking layer around your iTunes account. The much-anticipated social platform from Google will follow shortly in some form or another. people will be involved in the biggest social network (Facebook) because other people are, but increasingly they will be more engaged in other niche networks that appeal to their particular interests. Dynamic logic’s adreaction study has shown that consumers continue to find utility in having multiple, separate social identities (e.g. Facebook, linked in and Twitter). We think 201 will end up 1 being the year of smaller niche interest or activity-based networks, many of which still take advantage of the Facebook social graph but engage users differently (e.g. foursquare, runKeeper). Facebook provides excellent targeting opportunities for brands because of its scale but, to really be effective, sophisticated algorithms are needed to make sense of the complex relationships between people. Without very sophisticated algorithms that target content effectively, it’s possible that the initial concept of the social graph could cave in on itself.
  • 12. 1 1 the Battle for online privacy will intensify 1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201 1 1: 1 1 Marketers will make progress on the development of online transparency frameworks as consumers are increasingly empowered to look under the hood. They will avoid regulatory measures to protect online privacy by enabling users to manage their own profiles and by being clearer about their data models. examples of these measures include a self-regulatory program that has been launched by the online advertising industry in the Us where every online ad can have an icon which will open up to reveal profile settings. Despite these efforts, battle continues between regulators and the industry about the scope of personal information that forms the building blocks of online identity. Trust will become a quantifiable measure as consumers move to ring fence data use. Managing user identities and the sharing of the same with approved commercial partners will become a viable business model. social media, portals, search engines and telecommunication companies will battle to be the trusted launch platform for “connected everywhere” consumers.
  • 13. about Millward 1 For 201 Top 1 DiGiTal preDicTions For 201 1 1: 1 1 Brown’s Futures Group Millward Brown’s Futures Group is a global knowledge-sharing forum of Millward Brown and Dynamic logic staff, which focuses on the digital trends that will have a significant impact in the next three years. special thanks to the following for their contributions to this document: christopher Bian chris Maier Bhomik chandna rajith nair laurent Dumouchel Jennifer okula Tom ewing George pappachen christina Goodman Michal przadka Mark Henning ali rana Juan Manuel Hernandez Felipe ramirez Miquet Humphryes Duncan southgate alex Johnson sherri stevens andy lees cain Wang