Dia de-la-energia2013-Ramon Espinasa
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El economista líder del sector petróleo y gas del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo BID, Ramón Espinasa realizó una presentación en el marco del II Congreso del “Día de la Energía”realizado en Perú. Su charla tuvo como principales temas: -El aumento de la demanda de petróleo en los países de la región. -La importancia de desarrollar una oferta energética competitiva. -El impacto del gas de esquistos (shale gas) sobre los precios del mercado de gas y de líquidos de gas natural en los EEUU así como en el mercado internacional. http://bit.ly/13r2Jay
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- 1. Oil Market Dynamics, Paradigms and Performance __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ II Congreso Día de la Energía 2013 // 3 July 2013 Ramón Espinasa, Lead Specialist (Oil & Gas)
- 2. Dynamics of Petroleum Markets Oil Sector Performance and Institutional Frameworks 1 3 A New World Energy Paradigm 2 The Peruvian Case 4
- 3. 1 Dynamics of Petroleum Markets Commodity Prices Supply A DemandB C
- 4. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Avg. 1984─2001 US$ 19.9 (nominal prices) Avg. 2002─2013 US$ 63.4 (nominal prices) US$/barrel,nominal A Commodity Prices Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012
- 5. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Avg. 1984─2001 US$ 33.0 (2011 US$ prices) Avg. 2002─2013 US$ 68.6 (2011 US$ prices) 2011US$/barrel A Commodity Prices Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012
- 8. - 50 100 150 200 250 ene-96 jul-96 ene-97 jul-97 ene-98 jul-98 ene-99 jul-99 ene-00 jul-00 ene-01 jul-01 ene-02 jul-02 ene-03 jul-03 ene-04 jul-04 ene-05 jul-05 ene-06 jul-06 ene-07 jul-07 ene-08 jul-08 ene-09 jul-09 ene-10 jul-10 ene-11 jul-11 ene-12 jul-12 ene-13 Energy Food Metals & minerals PriceIndex,2005=100 A Commodity Prices Source: World Bank
- 9. - 50 100 150 200 250 ene-96 jul-96 ene-97 jul-97 ene-98 jul-98 ene-99 jul-99 ene-00 jul-00 ene-01 jul-01 ene-02 jul-02 ene-03 jul-03 ene-04 jul-04 ene-05 jul-05 ene-06 jul-06 ene-07 jul-07 ene-08 jul-08 ene-09 jul-09 ene-10 jul-10 ene-11 jul-11 ene-12 jul-12 ene-13 Energy Food Metals & minerals Non-energy commodities PriceIndex,2005=100 A Commodity Prices Source: World Bank
- 10. 1. Oil prices increased threefold in nominal terms and twofold in real terms in the years after 2002 compared to very stable prices prevailing in the seventeen years after 1984. 2. This price behavior is not exclusive of oil / energy but is replicated by other commodities and food prices. 3. The increase in the price of all commodities as from 2002 is due to a demand push from the non-OECD countries, particularly Asian. 4. For the specific case of oil the structural factors behind the price increase are the demand push from the Non-OECD coupled with a shift towards more expensive production in the OECD countries as will be described next. A Commodity Prices: Observations
- 11. - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: World Thousandbarrelsperday OECD Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 13. - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: World Thousandbarrelsperday OECD + Non-OECD Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 14. (3,000) - 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 21,000 24,000 27,000 30,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Thousandbarrelsperday B Demand: World Changes OECD Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 15. (3,000) - 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 21,000 24,000 27,000 30,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Thousandbarrelsperday B Demand: World Changes Non-OECD Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 16. (3,000) - 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 21,000 24,000 27,000 30,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Thousandbarrelsperday B Demand: World Changes OECD + Non-OECD Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 17. - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: OECD Thousandbarrelsperday OECD Americas Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 18. - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: OECD Thousandbarrelsperday OECD Asia & Oceania Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 19. - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: OECD Thousandbarrelsperday OECD Europe Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 20. (1,000) - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday OECD Americas Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 21. (1,000) - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday OECD Asia & Oceania Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 22. (1,000) - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday OECD Europe Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 23. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: Non-OECD Thousandbarrelsperday Africa Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 24. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: Non-OECD Thousandbarrelsperday China Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 25. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: Non-OECD Thousandbarrelsperday Former USSR Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 26. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: Non-OECD Thousandbarrelsperday Middle East Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 27. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: Non-OECD Thousandbarrelsperday Latin America Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 28. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: Non-OECD Thousandbarrelsperday Other Asia Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 29. (6,000) (4,500) (3,000) (1,500) - 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 9,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: Non-OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday Africa Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 30. (6,000) (4,500) (3,000) (1,500) - 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 9,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: Non-OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday China Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 31. (6,000) (4,500) (3,000) (1,500) - 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 9,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: Non-OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday Former USSR Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 32. (6,000) (4,500) (3,000) (1,500) - 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 9,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: Non-OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday Middle East Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 33. (6,000) (4,500) (3,000) (1,500) - 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 9,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: Non-OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday Latin America Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 34. (6,000) (4,500) (3,000) (1,500) - 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 9,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 B Demand: Non-OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday Other Asia Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 35. 1. World demand has increased around 50% since 1984 from 60 to 90 Mbd. 2. Non-OECD demand increase was almost three times OECD demand increase: 22 vs. 7.7 Mbd. 3. Demand in Non-OECD since 1984 increased by 100% compared to 17% in the OECD. 4. Until 2002 demand growth was rather homogeneous, then shifted to Non-OECD. 5. OECD Americas demand increase (4.4 Mbd) is almost twice that of OECD Asia & Oceania (2.4 Mbd) and more than four times that of OECD Europe (0.9 Mbd). 6. Non-OECD demand (excluding Former USSR) increased by 26.5 Mbd over the period – more than 3 times the OECD demand increase of 7.7 Mbd. 7. More than half of non-OECD (excluding Former USSR) increase came from Asia with 16.2 Mbd – 8.4 Mbd from non-China Asia and 7.8 Mbd from China. 8. Asian demand increase was more than double the OECD increase: 16.2 vs 7.7 Mbd 9. China demand has increased by a factor of 5; rest of Asia demand has increased 4 times. 10. After the collapse of the USSR, the FSU reduced consumption by 50% and has remained at that level since. B Demand: Observations
- 36. - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: World Thousandbarrelsperday OECD Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 37. - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: World Thousandbarrelsperday OPEC Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 38. - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: World Thousandbarrelsperday Non-OPEC/OECD Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 39. (2,500) - 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 20,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: World Changes Thousandbarrelsperday OECD Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 40. (2,500) - 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 20,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: World Changes Thousandbarrelsperday OPEC OECD Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 41. (2,500) - 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 20,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: World Changes Thousandbarrelsperday OPEC Non-OPEC/OECD OECD Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 42. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: OECD Thousandbarrelsperday OECD Asia & Oceania Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 43. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: OECD Thousandbarrelsperday OECD Europe Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 44. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: OECD Thousandbarrelsperday OECD Americas Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 45. (2,000) (1,500) (1,000) (500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday OECD Asia & Oceania Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 46. (2,000) (1,500) (1,000) (500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday OECD Europe Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 47. (2,000) (1,500) (1,000) (500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday OECD Americas Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 48. - 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 20,000 22,500 25,000 27,500 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: OPEC Thousandbarrelsperday OPEC Latin America Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 49. - 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 20,000 22,500 25,000 27,500 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: OPEC Thousandbarrelsperday OPEC Africa Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 50. - 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 20,000 22,500 25,000 27,500 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: OPEC Thousandbarrelsperday OPEC Middle East Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 51. (1,500) - 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 9,000 10,500 12,000 13,500 15,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: OPEC Changes Thousandbarrelsperday OPEC Latin America Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 52. (1,500) - 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 9,000 10,500 12,000 13,500 15,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: OPEC Changes Thousandbarrelsperday OPEC Africa Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 53. (1,500) - 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 9,000 10,500 12,000 13,500 15,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: OPEC Changes Thousandbarrelsperday OPEC Middle East Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 54. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: Non-OPEC/OECD Thousandbarrelsperday Non-OECD Europe Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 55. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: Non-OPEC/OECD Thousandbarrelsperday Non-OPEC Middle East Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 56. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: Non-OPEC/OECD Thousandbarrelsperday Non-OPEC Africa Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 57. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: Non-OPEC/OECD Thousandbarrelsperday Non-OPEC Latin America Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 58. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: Non-OPEC/OECD Thousandbarrelsperday Non-OPEC Asia Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 59. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: Non-OPEC/OECD Thousandbarrelsperday Former USSR Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 60. (5,000) (4,000) (3,000) (2,000) (1,000) - 1,000 2,000 3,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: Non-OPEC/OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday Non-OECD Europe Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 61. (5,000) (4,000) (3,000) (2,000) (1,000) - 1,000 2,000 3,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: Non-OPEC/OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday Non-OPEC Middle East Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 62. (5,000) (4,000) (3,000) (2,000) (1,000) - 1,000 2,000 3,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: Non-OPEC/OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday Non-OPEC Africa Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 63. (5,000) (4,000) (3,000) (2,000) (1,000) - 1,000 2,000 3,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: Non-OPEC/OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday Former USSR Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 64. (5,000) (4,000) (3,000) (2,000) (1,000) - 1,000 2,000 3,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: Non-OPEC/OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday Non-OPEC Latin America Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 65. (5,000) (4,000) (3,000) (2,000) (1,000) - 1,000 2,000 3,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C Supply: Non-OPEC/OECD Changes Thousandbarrelsperday Non-OPEC Asia Source: IEA and Own Calculations
- 66. 1. Non-OPEC/OECD supply increase has more than compensated the decline in OEDC supply. 2. The bulk of the net supply increase has come from OPEC production out of spare capacity since 1985. It increased twofold from 18 to 38 Mbd. 3. OECD essentially flat behavior has coincided with oil price increase since 2002. 4. OECD Americas has recovered slightly from its decline in production since 1985; OECD Europe peaked in production and has been declining since 2000 and is below 1985 level. 5. OPEC Latin America is slightly above 1985; OPEC Africa increased almost twofold; OPEC Middle East increase more than doubles the rest of OPEC. 6. The FSU is back to where it was in 1985 with export capacity around 9 Mbd. 7. Latin America is the Non OPEC/OECD region with the fastest and largest growth. C Supply: Observations
- 67. 2 A New Energy Paradigm Price Scenarios New Sources of Crude A B D C Changes in Demand New Oil Balances
- 68. A Price Scenarios Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 Current Policies New Policies 450 Scenario DollarsperBarrel(2011)
- 69. B Changes in World DemandMillionbarrelsperday Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 Dollarsperbarrel(2011) Current Policies New Policies 450 Scenario
- 70. Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 B Changes in World Demand Oil demand growth by region Million barrels per day
- 71. Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 B Changes in DemandBilliontonne-Km Incremental road freight growth by region since 2000
- 72. Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 C New Sources of Crude World oil supply by type Millionbarrelsperday Processing Gains Light tight oil Other unconventional oil NGLs Fields yet-to-be found Fields yet-to-be developed Currently producing
- 73. Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 C New Sources of Crude US oil production by type Millionbarrelsperday Light tight oil Other unconventional oil Fields yet-to-be found Fields yet-to-be developed Currently producing NGLs
- 74. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 China European Union India United States Japan 2005 2011 2020 2035 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 D New Oil Balances Prospective oil imports Millionbarrelsperday
- 75. D New Oil Balances Reductions in net oil imports in the United States by Source Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 Millionbarrelsperday
- 76. 3 Oil Sector Performance & Institutional Frameworks Price Dynamics Contracting for Oil Production A B D C Response to Price Signals Institutional Features & Consequences
- 77. Response process to price signals: Price Investment Supply 3 Oil Sector Performance & Institutional Frameworks
- 78. Response process to price signals: Price Investment Active DrillingRigs 3 Oil Sector Performance & Institutional Frameworks
- 79. 0 50 100150 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period Data Source: IEA, U.S. BLS and own calculations Marker Crude Price WTI in real terms A Price Dynamics
- 80. Break in trend 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period Data Source: IEA, U.S. BLS and own calculations Hodrick-Prescott Trend Marker Crude Price WTI in logs A Price Dynamics
- 81. Based on experiences of the last 15 years, we can sort the Latin American oil producers into 2 groups, depending on their responses to price signals: Group 1 Group 2 Argentina Ecuador Mexico Venezuela Brazil Colombia Peru B Response to Price Signals
- 82. Despite oil price increases, oil production has fallen in: Group 1 Argentina Ecuador Mexico Venezuela B Response to Price Signals: Supply
- 83. Break oil price trend 600700800900 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period Data Source: IEA and author calculations Argentina Oil Production B Response to Price Signals – Group 1: Argentina
- 84. Break oil price trend 6.56.66.76.8 H-Poilsupplytrend 3 3.5 4 4.5 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period H-P oil price trend H-P oil supply trend Data Source: IEA, U.S. BLS and own calculations Hodrick-Prescott Trends Marker Crude Price and Argentina Oil Production B Response to Price Signals – Group 1: Argentina
- 85. Break oil price trend 300350400450500550 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period Data Source: IEA and author calculations Ecuador Oil Production B Response to Price Signals – Group 1: Ecuador
- 86. Break oil price trend 5.966.16.26.3 H-PEcuoilsupplytrend 3 3.5 4 4.5 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period H-P oil price trend H-P Ecu oil supply trend Data Source: IEA, U.S. BLS and own calculations Hodrick-Prescott Trends Marker Crude Price and Ecuador Oil Production B Response to Price Signals – Group 1: Ecuador
- 87. Break oil price trend 20002500300035004000 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period Data Source: IEA and author calculations Mexico Oil Production B Response to Price Signals – Group 1: Mexico
- 88. Break oil price trend 7.988.18.28.3 H-PMexoilsupplytrend 3 3.5 4 4.5 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period H-P oil price trend H-P Mex oil supply trend Data Source: IEA, U.S. BLS and own calculations Hodrick-Prescott Trends Marker Crude Price and Mexico Oil Production B Response to Price Signals – Group 1: Mexico
- 89. Break oil price trend 15002000250030003500 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period Data Source: IEA and author calculations Venezuela Oil Production B Response to Price Signals – Group 1: Venezuela
- 90. Break oil price trend 7.97.9588.058.1 H-PVzlaoilsupplytrend 3 3.5 4 4.5 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period H-P oil price trend H-P Vzla oil supply trend Data Source: IEA, U.S. BLS and own calculations Hodrick-Prescott Trends Marker Crude Price and Venezuela Oil Production B Response to Price Signals – Group 1: Venezuela
- 91. Following oil price increases, oil production has sharply increased in: Group 2 Brazil Colombia Peru B Response to Price Signals: Supply
- 92. Break oil price trend 500 1000150020002500 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period Data Source: IEA and author calculations Brazil Oil Production B Response to Price Signals – Group 2: Brazil
- 93. Break oil price trend 6.577.58 H-PBraoilsupplytrend 3 3.5 4 4.5 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period H-P oil price trend H-P Bra oil supply trend Data Source: IEA, U.S. BLS and own calculations Hodrick-Prescott Trends Marker Crude Price and Brazil Oil Production B Response to Price Signals – Group 2: Brazil
- 94. Break oil price trend 500600700800900 1000 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period Data Source: IEA and author calculations Colombia Oil Production B Response to Price Signals – Group 2: Colombia
- 95. Break oil price trend 6.36.46.56.66.76.8 H-PColoilsupplytrend 3 3.5 4 4.5 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period H-P oil price trend H-P Col oil supply trend Data Source: IEA, U.S. BLS and own calculations Hodrick-Prescott Trends Marker Crude Price and Colombia Oil Production B Response to Price Signals – Group 2: Colombia
- 96. Break oil price trend 80 100120140160 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period Data Source: IEA and author calculations Peru Oil Production B Response to Price Signals – Group 2: Peru
- 97. Break oil price trend 4.64.74.84.955.1 H-PPeroilsupplytrend 3 3.5 4 4.5 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period H-P oil price trend H-P Per oil supply trend Data Source: IEA, U.S. BLS and own calculations Hodrick-Prescott Trends Marker Crude Price and Peru Oil Production B Response to Price Signals – Group 2: Peru
- 98. Break oil price trend 100200300400500 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 period Group 1 supply index Group 2 supply index Oil price index Data Source: IEA, U.S. BLS, Baker Hughes Inc and own calculations Price and Supply Performance Group 1 vs. Group 2 B Response to Price Signals – Group 1 vs. Group 2
- 99. Over the last 15 years, oil prices increased almost fourfold – in real terms – from $26 / barrel to $96 / barrel LAC oil producers reacted differently: Group 1 Group 2 Drilling activity has remained stagnant and oil supply has fallen Drilling activity has increased 2.8 x Oil output has increased 150% B Response to Price Signals
- 100. Therefore,thesituationis: Samepricesignals Differentreactions Why? Institutional Framework B Response to Price Signals
- 101. Large,upfrontinvestments Assetspecific Longrecoveryperiods Inherentgeologicalrisks Asymmetriccontractingbetween Sovereignresourceownerand concessionarycompany Presenceofeconomicrentscreate distributivetensionsbetween government&companies Nationalization&expropriation Complexities Requirements Long-lastingcontracts Fair,credible,andstabledistributional rules Securityagainstthepossibilityof expropriation Credibilityofinstitutions C Contracting for Oil Production
- 102. Productionisundergovernmentcontrol Direct:Stateoilcompany(SOC) Indirect:Pressureonprivatecompanies(POC) Discretionaryadministrationofreserves&oilrevenue Exposuretorent-seekingbehaviorbygovernment Managementunderpoliticalscrutiny Closedtocompetitionnotexposedtomarketsignals Operational&financialopacitylackofpublicscrutiny SOCperformingnon-inherenttasks SOC/POCforcedtosubsidizedomesticfuelsupply Group1 Features D Institutional Features & Consequences
- 103. Permanentexpropriationofrevenues Subsidies, non-oilrelatedactivities,anddiscretionarydistribution Uncertaintyregardingrevenues&savings Difficulttoundertakelargeprojects Noresponsetomarketsignals Nobehaviorasacommercialfirm LackofcompetitionLeadstoinefficiency Limitedaccessto Technology,financing,andengineeringcapacity Group1 Consequences D Institutional Features & Consequences
- 104. 6.56.66.76.8 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period Data Source: IEA and own calculations Hodrick-Prescott Trend Argentina Oil Production and Institutional Break Swearing in Néstor Kischner 05/03 D Institutional Features – Group 1: Argentina
- 105. 5.9 6 6.16.26.3 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period Data Source: IEA and own calculations Hodrick-Prescott Trend Ecuador Oil Production and Institutional Break Swearing in Rafael Correa 01/07 D Institutional Features – Group 1: Ecuador
- 106. 7.9 8 8.18.28.3 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period Data Source: IEA and own calculations Hodrick-Prescott Trend Mexico Oil Production and Institutional Break Swearing in Felipe Calderón 12/06 D Institutional Features – Group 1: Mexico
- 107. 7.9 7.95 8 8.05 8.1 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period Data Source: IEA and own calculations Hodrick-Prescott Trend Venezuela Oil Production and Institutional Break Swearing in Hugo Chávez 02/99 D Institutional Features – Group 1: Venezuela
- 108. Argentina Regulationdomesticfuelpricebelowint.prices SpecificOilExportTax CreationofENARSA ExpropriationofYPF Ecuador Pressureonprivatecompaniesinmarginalfields Specificwindfallprofittaxonprivatecompanies Group1 New Policies D Institutional Features & Consequences
- 109. Mexico PressureonPEMEXspendinginfavoroftransferstogovernment CeilingonPIDIREGASdebt Venezuela InterferenceonPDVSAprofessionalmanagement New2002HydrocarbonsLawincreasinggovernment interventionpower Expropriationofprivatecompaniesbothnationaland international,coreandnon-core Group1 New Policies D Institutional Features & Consequences
- 110. Governmentadministersnationaloilreserves Byanon-operatinghydrocarbonagency(NHA) NHAopensoilbearinglandstocompetition National&foreign Private&stateowned Exposedtomarketsignals Contractuallysetrules:distribution&operation Group2 Features D Institutional Features & Consequences
- 111. SOCundersamerulesasPOC Notsubjecttodiscretionarygovernmentintervention SOCfocusedonindustryrelatedactivities Subjecttocompetition&publicscrutiny Subsidytodomesticmarket Explicitandassumedbythegovernment Reservesnotinjeopardy SOCcanbepartiallyprivatized Group2 Features D Institutional Features & Consequences
- 112. Oilsectorisolatedfromgovernment ANHactingasabuffer Oilproductionundercontrolofcompanies Subjecttocontractualguidelines Oilcompaniessubjecttopublicscrutiny Sectoropentointernationalfinancing,technology& engineeringcapacity Group2 Consequences D Institutional Features & Consequences
- 113. 6.5 7 7.5 8 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period Data Source: IEA and own calculations Hodrick-Prescott Trend Brazil Oil Production and Institutional Break Swearing in Fernando Henrique Cardoso 01/95 Creation ANP 08/97 D Institutional Features – Group 2: Brazil
- 114. 6.36.46.56.66.76.8 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period Data Source: IEA and own calculations Hodrick-Prescott Trend Colombia Oil Production and Institutional Break Swearing in Álvaro Uribe 08/02 Creation ANH 06/03 D Institutional Features – Group 2: Colombia
- 115. 4.64.74.84.9 5 5.1 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 Period Data Source: IEA and own calculations Hodrick-Prescott Trend Peru Oil Production and Institutional Break Swearing in Alberto Fujimori 07/90 Creation Perupetro 08/93 D Institutional Features – Group 2: Peru
- 116. Brazil CreationofANP:Openingtodirectprivateinvestmentand operationupstream PartialprivatizationofPetrobras Colombia ANH: Openingtodirectprivateinvestment,operationupstream PartialprivatizationofEcopetrol. Peru Perupetrol:Openingtodirectprivateinvestment,operation upstream Group2 New Policies D Institutional Features & Consequences
- 117. ItispossibletoidentifyamongtheLatinAmericanoilproducerstwofamilies ofcountrieswithsimilarinstitutionalpatternsandresponsebehaviorto marketsignals Group1: Governmentmonopolycontrolofproduction Discretionaldistributionalandoperationalrules Closed,notrespondingtointernationalpricesignals Group2: CompetitionunderRegulatoryAgency Contractuallysetdistributionalandoperationalrules Openandresponsivetointernationalpricesignals E Conclusions
- 118. 4 The Peruvian Case The Oil Market in Peru Drilling Activity A B C Natural Gas Growth Closing ConsiderationsD
- 119. A Oil in Peru: Production Source: US Energy Information Administration Thousandbarrelsperday Crude Oil -75 -25 25 75 125 175 225 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
- 120. A Oil in Peru: Production Source: US Energy Information Administration Thousandbarrelsperday Non-Crude Oil -75 -25 25 75 125 175 225 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
- 121. A Oil in Peru: Production Source: US Energy Information Administration Thousandbarrelsperday Total Oil -75 -25 25 75 125 175 225 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
- 122. A Oil in Peru: Consumption Source: US Energy Information Administration Thousandbarrelsperday Total Oil Consumption -75 -25 25 75 125 175 225 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
- 123. A Oil in Peru: Balance Source: US Energy Information Administration Thousandbarrelsperday Oil Balance -75 -25 25 75 125 175 225 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
- 124. B Natural Gas Growth Source: US Energy Information Administration BillionCubicFeet 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Production Note: 2012 production figure is from Peru’s Ministry of Energy & Mines
- 125. B Natural Gas Growth BillionCubicFeet 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Consumption Note: 2012 consumption figure is author’s estimate Source: US Energy Information Administration
- 126. B Natural Gas Growth BillionCubicFeet Exportable Surplus Note: 2012 consumption figure is author’s estimate Source: US Energy Information Administration 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
- 127. C Drilling Activity since 2000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 Source: Baker Hughes ActiveDrillingRigs(Land&Offshore)
- 128. D Closing Considerations 1. Hydrocarbons production growth in Peru over the last thirty years has been exclusively in Natural Gas 2. Crude oil production has shown a steady decline. Production has fallen by 60% 3. Gas production has increased discretionally over the last decade. First with the coming on stream of the Camisea pipeline by the mid 2010s. Second when Peru LNG came on stream by the late 2010s. 4. The increase in Oil production has been exclusively due to the production of Liquids associated to Natural Gas production. 5. The increase in Total Oil production explains almost closing down the domestic oil deficit. 6. The country is nowadays a net hydrocarbons exporter. 7. The drop in drilling activity over the last two years is worrisome. It may lead to a drop in total hydrocarbons production. 8. It is necessary to understand and remedy the reasons for the recent drop in drilling activity.